2024 United States Senate election in Florida

The 2024 United States Senate election in Florida was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Florida. Incumbent Republican Senator Rick Scott won a second term, defeating Democratic nominee Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. The primary election was held on August 20, 2024.

Scott, then the governor of Florida, was first elected to the U.S. Senate in 2018 by 0.12 points, defeating then-incumbent Bill Nelson. With the benefit of incumbency and the state's rightward trend, most political pundits considered the race to be favoring Scott to win re-election. On Election Day, Scott won by 12.78 percentage points, a significantly larger margin than most pre-election polls had suggested.

Out of all of Scott’s four statewide races (2010 and 2014 gubernatorial elections, 2018 and 2024 senatorial elections), this election was by far his best performance, and the first one he won decisively, as he narrowly won the previous three all by less than a 2% margin. Scott won majority-Hispanic Miami-Dade and Osceola counties, as well as St. Lucie County for the first time in all of his statewide races, and according to exit polls Scott won 55% of Hispanic voters and also won 21% of African American voters.

Republican primary Candidates Nominee Rick Scott, incumbent U.S. senator (2019–present)

Eliminated in primary John Columbus, actor Keith Gross, former assistant state attorney for Florida's 18th circuit court

Declined Ron DeSantis, governor of Florida (2019–present) and former U.S. representative from (2013–2018) (ran for president) Byron Donalds, U.S. representative from (2021–present) (ran for re-election) Matt Gaetz, U.S. representative from (2017–2024) (ran for re-election)

Endorsements

Fundraising Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024CandidateRaisedSpentCash on handJohn Columbus (R)$23,174$22,857$317Keith Gross (R)$2,449,122$2,440,444$8,679Rick Scott (R)$29,350,647$26,466,192$4,345,058Source: Federal Election Commission

Results

Democratic primary Candidates Nominee Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, former U.S. representative from (2019–2021)

Eliminated in primary Stanley Campbell, IT company CEO and brother of rapper Uncle Luke Rod Joseph, consultant and Purple Heart recipient Brian Rush, former state representative (1987–1995) and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022

Withdrew Phil Ehr, nonprofit executive, nominee for in 2020 and candidate in 2018 (ran for U.S. House, endorsed Mucarsel-Powell) Alan Grayson, former U.S. representative from (2009–2011, 2013–2017) and perennial candidate (ran for state senate)

Declined Stephanie Murphy, former U.S. Representative from Florida's 7th congressional district (2017-2023) Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, U.S. representative from (2022–present) (ran for re-election) Fentrice Driskell, Minority Leader of the Florida House of Representatives (2022–present) from the 67th district (2018–present) Anna Eskamani, state representative (2018–present) (ran for re-election) Lois Frankel, U.S. representative from (2013–present) (ran for re-election, endorsed Mucarsel-Powell) Shevrin Jones, state senator from the 35th district (2021–present) (endorsed Mucarsel-Powell) Debbie Wasserman Schultz, U.S. representative from (2004–present) (endorsed Mucarsel-Powell) Frederica Wilson, U.S. representative from (2011–present)

Endorsements

Fundraising Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024CandidateRaisedSpentCash on handStanley Campbell (D)$1,081,092$687,145$394,415Rod Joseph (D)$28,596$20,855$7,741Alan Grayson (D)$728,813$582,703$150,148Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D)$12,133,366$7,802,905$4,330,461Brian Rush (D)$82,333$63,529$18,804Source: Federal Election Commission

Polling

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error AlanGrayson Powell UndecidedMainstreet Research/FAUJune 8–9, 2024346 (RV)± 3.3%12%43%45%

Results

Independents and third-party candidates Candidates Declared Feena Bonoan (Libertarian), artist and nominee for U.S. Senate in Hawaii in 2022 Ben Everidge (Independent), fundraising consultant and former legislative consultant to U.S. Senators Lawton Chiles and Ben Nelson Howard Knepper (write-in), real estate developer and perennial candidate Tuan Nguyen (Independent), system engineer and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022

General election

Predictions SourceRankingAs of The Cook Political Report November 9, 2023 Inside Elections September 26, 2024 Sabato's Crystal Ball November 9, 2023 Decision Desk HQ/The Hill August 26, 2024 Elections Daily May 4, 2023 CNalysis September 26, 2024 RealClearPolitics October 15, 2024 Split Ticket October 23, 2024 538 October 23, 2024

Post-primary endorsements

Polling Aggregate polls Source of pollaggregationDatesadministeredDatesupdated RickScott (R) Powell (D) UndecidedMarginFiveThirtyEightthrough November 3, 2024November 4, 202449.6%44.9%5.5%Scott +4.7%RealClearPoliticsSeptember 29 – November 1, 2024November 3, 202448.9%44.3%6.8%Scott +4.6%270toWinOctober 23 – November 4, 2024November 4, 202449.3%44.5%6.2%Scott +4.8%TheHill/DDHQNovember 3, 2024November 4, 202450.8%45.4%3.8%Scott +5.4%Average49.7%44.8%5.5%Scott+4.9%

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error RickScott (R) Powell (D) Other UndecidedResearch Co.November 2–3, 2024450 (LV)± 4.6%50%43%3%4%Victory Insights (R)November 1–2, 2024400 (LV)–51%47%–2%Stetson UniversityOctober 25 – November 1, 2024452 (LV)± 5.0%53%45%2%–Morning ConsultOctober 23 – November 1, 20242,022 (LV)± 2.0%48%45%–7%Cygnal (R)October 26–28, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%49%45%3%3%Mainstreet Research/FAUOctober 19–27, 2024897 (LV)± 3.2%50%46%2%2%913 (RV)50%46%2%3%ActiVoteOctober 17–27, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%55%45%––St. Pete PollsOctober 23–25, 20241,227 (LV)± 2.8%49%46%–6%Emerson CollegeOctober 18–20, 2024860 (LV)± 3.3%53%47%––48%44%–8%Cherry Communications (R)October 10–20, 2024614 (LV)± 4.0%51%45%–4%ActiVoteSeptember 23 – October 20, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%52%48%––Redfield & Wilton StrategiesOctober 16–18, 20241,275 (LV)± 2.5%45%42%5%8%University of North FloridaOctober 7–18, 2024977 (LV)± 3.5%49%46%1%4%RMG ResearchOctober 14–17, 2024788 (LV)± 3.5%51%43%3%3%52%44%–3%YouGovOctober 7–17, 20241,094 (RV)± 3.46%49%45%–6%Redfield & Wilton StrategiesOctober 12–14, 20241,009 (LV)± 2.8%45%42%6%8%Marist CollegeOctober 3–7, 20241,257 (LV)± 3.6%50%48%–1%1,410 (RV)± 3.4%50%48%–2%New York Times/Siena CollegeSeptember 29 – October 6, 2024622 (LV)± 4.8%49%40%–11%622 (RV)± 4.6%48%39%–12%Mason-Dixon Polling & StrategyOctober 1–4, 2024625 (RV)± 4.0%48%41%2%9%Redfield & Wilton StrategiesSeptember 27 – October 2, 20242,946 (LV)± 1.7%44%41%4%10%RMG ResearchSeptember 25–27, 2024774 (LV)± 3.5%48%43%2%7%50%44%–5%Public Policy Polling (D)September 25–26, 2024808 (RV)± 3.5%47%44%–9%44%43%2%12%McLaughlin & Associates (R)September 23–25, 20241,200 (LV)± 2.8%51%44%–5%Victory Insights (R)September 22–25, 2024600 (LV)± 4.4%45%44%–12%The Bullfinch GroupSeptember 20–23, 2024600 (RV)± 4.0%46%44%–10%43%42%4%11%ActiVoteAugust 21 – September 22, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%54%46%––Redfield & Wilton StrategiesSeptember 16–19, 20241,602 (LV)± 2.3%45%41%3%11%Morning ConsultSeptember 9–18, 20242,948 (LV)± 2.0%46%42%–12%Morning ConsultAugust 30 – September 8, 20243,182 (LV)± 2.0%47%42%–11%Emerson CollegeSeptember 3–5, 2024815 (LV)± 3.4%46%45%–9%Redfield & Wilton StrategiesAugust 25–28, 2024850 (LV)± 3.1%43%40%4%14%Cherry Communications (R)August 15–26, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%51%44%–5%Public Policy Polling (D)August 21–22, 2024837 (RV)± 3.4%48%45%–7%837 (RV)± 3.4%46%43%2%10% August 20, 2024 Primary elections heldMainstreet Research/FAUAugust 10–11, 20241,055 (RV)± 3.0%47%43%11%7%1,040 (LV)47%43%3%6%McLaughlin & Associates (R)August 6–8, 2024800 (LV)–52%42%–7%University of North FloridaJuly 24–27, 2024774 (LV)± 4.6%47%43%–11%Targoz Market ResearchJuly 19–24, 20241,200 (RV)± 2.8%47%41%–12%988 (LV)49%43%–8%Mainstreet Research/FAUJune 8–9, 2024883 (A)± 3.3%44%40%6%10%771 (LV)± 3.3%45%43%4%8%The Tyson Group (R)June 6–9, 20241,050 (LV)± 3.0%46%33%–21%CBS News/YouGovMay 10–16, 20241,209 (RV)± 3.9%45%37%–19%Cherry Communications (R)April 28 – May 7, 2024609 (RV)± 4.0%54%39%–7%Mainstreet Research/FAUApril 15–17, 2024865 (RV)± 3.3%52%35%5%9%815 (LV)± 3.3%53%36%4%8%USA Today/IpsosApril 5–7, 20241,014 (A)± 4.1%36%26%5%33%Emerson CollegeApril 3–7, 2024608 (LV)± 3.0%45%38%–16%Public Policy Polling (D)February 29 – March 1, 2024790 (V)± 3.5%44%41%––Global Strategy Group (D)July 5–10, 20231,000 (LV)± 3.1%43%44%–13%

Rick Scott vs. Phil Ehr Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error RickScott (R) PhilEhr (D) Other UndecidedChange Research (D)June 27–29, 20231,298 (LV)–45%41%3%11%

Results

Scott won reelection with 55.6% of the vote, defeating Mucarsel-Powell by over 12 percentage points.

By county