Post-election pendulum for the 2018 Victorian state election

The Labor party won the 2018 state election by winning 55 of the 88 lower house seats. The coalition won 27 seats (Liberal 21 and Nationals 6) while the Greens and independents won 3 each.

Classification of seats as marginal, fairly safe or safe is applied by the independent Australian Electoral Commission using the following definition: "Where a winning party receives less than 56% of the vote, the seat is classified as 'marginal', 56–60% is classified as 'fairly safe' and more than 60% is considered 'safe'."

Pendulum The Mackerras pendulum was devised by the Australian psephologist Malcolm Mackerras as a way of predicting the outcome of an election contested between two major parties in a Westminster style lower house legislature such as the Australian House of Representatives, which is composed of single-member electorates and which uses a preferential voting system such as a Condorcet method or IRV.

The pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament for the government, the opposition and the cross benches according to the percentage-point margin they are held by on a two party preferred basis. This is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted.

Labor seats - 2018 Seat Member Party MarginMarginalBayswaterJackson TaylorALP0.39%HawthornJohn KennedyALP0.42%NepeanChris BrayneALP0.91%NorthcoteKat TheophanousALP1.71% v GRNMount WaverleyMatt FregonALP1.85%Box HillPaul HamerALP2.11%BassJordan CrugnaleALP2.39%RingwoodDustin HalseALP2.82%BurwoodWill FowlesALP3.31%MeltonSteve McGhieALP4.29%South BarwonDarren CheesemanALP4.60%RichmondRichard WynneALP5.46% v GRNFairly safeGeelongChristine CouzensALP6.23% v INDNarre Warren SouthGary MaasALP6.90%Pascoe ValeLizzie BlandthornALP8.58% v INDMonbulkJames MerlinoALP8.60%WerribeeTim PallasALP8.78% v INDElthamVicki WardALP9.09%FrankstonPaul EdbrookeALP9.74%Narre Warren NorthLuke DonnellanALP9.76%SafeWendoureeJuliana AddisonALP10.26%CranbournePauline RichardsALP10.98%BellarineLisa NevilleALP11.45%BentleighNick StaikosALP11.92%CarrumSonya KilkennyALP11.95%Bendigo EastJacinta AllanALP12.11%BuninyongMichaela SettleALP12.24%IvanhoeAnthony CarbinesALP12.36%NiddrieBen CarrollALP12.59%MulgraveDaniel AndrewsALP12.71%MordiallocTim RichardsonALP12.90%Albert ParkMartin FoleyALP13.13%MacedonMary-Anne ThomasALP13.18%SunburyJosh BullALP14.33%AltonaJill HennessyALP14.57%KeysboroughMartin PakulaALP14.85%OakleighSteve DimopoulosALP15.78%EssendonDanny PearsonALP15.86%Yan YeanDanielle GreenALP17.03%BundooraColin BrooksALP17.42%ClarindaMeng Heang TakALP17.43%SydenhamNatalie HutchinsALP17.86%TarneitSarah ConnollyALP18.02%Bendigo WestMaree EdwardsALP18.55%LaraJohn ErenALP19.14%Very safeYurokeRos SpenceALP20.26%PrestonRobin ScottALP20.70% v GRNSt AlbansNatalie SuleymanALP21.54%WilliamstownMelissa HorneALP22.07%DandenongGabrielle WilliamsALP23.93%Mill ParkLily D'AmbrosioALP24.9%KororoitMarlene KairouzALP25.65%ThomastownBronwyn HalfpennyALP27.19%FootscrayKatie HallALP28.11%BroadmeadowsFrank McGuireALP30.28% Coalition seats - 2018 Seat Member Party Margin MarginalRiponLouise StaleyLIB0.02%CaulfieldDavid SouthwickLIB0.27%SandringhamBrad RowswellLIB0.64%GembrookBrad BattinLIB0.79%HastingsNeale BurgessLIB1.07%BrightonJames NewburyLIB1.12%Forest HillNeil AngusLIB1.16%Ferntree GullyNick WakelingLIB1.64%CroydonDavid HodgettLIB2.12%South-West CoastRoma BritnellLIB2.31%EildonCindy McLeishLIB2.44%BenambraBill TilleyLIB2.45% v INDEvelynBridget VallenceLIB2.65%WarrandyteRyan SmithLIB3.88%KewTim SmithLIB4.78%MorningtonDavid MorrisLIB5.00%PolwarthRichard RiordanLIB5.40%RowvilleKim WellsLIB5.69%BulleenMatthew GuyLIB5.77%Fairly safeMalvernMichael O'BrienLIB6.1%NarracanGary BlackwoodLIB7.26%SafeOvens ValleyTim McCurdyNAT12.63%Gippsland SouthDanny O'BrienNAT15.33%EuroaSteph RyanNAT15.44%Gippsland EastTim BullNAT17.59%Very safeLowanEmma KealyNAT23.48%Murray PlainsPeter WalshNAT23.95%Crossbench seats - 2018MilduraAli CupperIND0.34% v NATBrunswickTim ReadGRN0.57% v ALPMelbourneEllen SandellGRN1.32% v ALPMorwellRussell NortheIND1.84% v ALPSheppartonSuzanna SheedIND5.3% v LIBPrahranSam HibbinsGRN7.54% v LIB

References