The climate of Greece is changing by way of increased drought, flooding, wildfires and sea level rise. These extreme weather conditions are likely to become more frequent and as a result landscapes and biodiversity will be affected. Climate change will also cause human activities such as land-use change, urbanisation and soil degradation to further affect Greek's ecosystems. Ecosystems in Greece are already at their tipping point, close to their environmental limits. Policies and laws have been put in place by the Greek government to try to manage these issues.
Greenhouse gas emissions
In 2021, Greece contributed 59.73 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. From 2005 to 2021, the per capita carbon dioxide equivalent greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions coming from Greece decreased dramatically. In 2005, Greece hit their record high for GHG emissions, at 132.57 tonnes. Since then, the GHG emissions per capita more than halved. Greece's emissions per capita decreased at a faster rate than the overall EU per capita emissions from 2005 to 2015.European Parliamentary Research Service (2021). Climate action in Greece. Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities.
The largest contributor to the GHG emissions in Greece is carbon dioxide (CO2), followed by nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4). In 2021, CO2 emissions accounted for almost 95% of all of Greece's GHG emissions, at 56.31 million tonnes. In comparison to global emission levels, Greece emits 0.15% of the world's CO2 emissions whereas China, the highest contributor, emits 14.36%, as of 2021.
It has also been found that Greece's CO2 emissions are coupled with economic growth, so when Greece's CO2 emissions drop, so does the GDP. Greece is working towards decoupling their GDP growth with their emissions, as several other countries have done successfully in the past.
By sector On the individual level, the per capita GHG emissions in Greece as of 2021 was 5.93 tonnes. By sector, the top three sources of GHG emissions include electricity and heat, transportation, and aviation and shipping. In most total energy consumption measurements, there are three components–heat, electricity, and transport.Ritchie, Hannah; Roser, Max; Rosado, Pablo (2022). "Energy". Our World in Data. Those three components make up the largest sector releasing GHG emissions from 1990-2019 in Greece.
Electricity and heat From 1990-2019, Greece's largest sector releasing GHG emissions was electricity and heat. In 2022, Greece consumed 52.44 terawatt hours of energy. These emissions are mainly made up of CO2 emissions. These emissions occur due to the burning of fossil fuels, such as coal, oil, and natural gases, for energy production. In 2021, it was found that 79.84% of Greece's energy comes from fossil fuels, and of that, over half comes from oil.
However, 19.39% of Greece's energy also comes from renewable energy sources, as of 2021. From 2007 to 2021, the share of primary energy coming from renewable sources increased by over 15%.
As of 2022, 56.69% of electricity production in Greece comes from fossil fuels. That means that 43.31% of electricity production comes from renewable energy technologies. Another way to reduce CO2 emissions and increase of air pollution would be to transition electricity towards another low-carbon source such as nuclear energy. However, Greece has not explored that energy option yet.
One of the larger obstacles to overcome when transitioning to renewable energy sources is the dilemma of the non-interconnected Greek Islands(NII). Currently, they obtain their electricity mainly from inefficient diesel generators. On average, electricity production cost in the NII is 2.5 times higher than in areas connected to a main electricity grid. Due to tourist seasonal demand, absence of storage space, and technical restrictions because of solar and wind's high chance of variability, installing renewable energy becomes increasingly more difficult on the NII. Thus, during the decade of 2021 to 2030, these islands are working to become interconnected with the mainland electricity system, reducing the need for oil imports. In June 2021, the power link between the mainland and the islands of Crete was completed. These connectivity offers a two benefits for the NII, as cheaper electricity can be supplied to the islands, and more renewables can be built because the interconnection allows for the balancing of energy amounts due to variable generation and varying demand.
Transport (incl. aviation and shipping)
During the touristic periods of the year in Greece, which falls from May to August, emissions from transportation such as ships, cars, and airplanes are at their highest, which is becoming more and more evident in popular tourist destinations such as in the Mediterranean area.Paschalidou, A.K., Petrou, I., Fytianos, G. et al. Anatomy of the atmospheric emissions from the transport sector in Greece: trends and challenges. Environ Sci Pollut Res 29, 34670–34684 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-18062-5
In 2017, the road transport CO2-equivalent emissions accounted for 22.6% of Greece's total emissions. In terms of Greece's transport specific emissions in 2017, road transport accounted for 51.8% of total CO2-equivalent emissions. Between 1990 and 2017, the road sector's CO2-equivalent emissions increased by almost 25%, from 12,000 to almost 15,000 kilo-tonnes (kt). Greece is also one of the countries with the oldest fleet of cars within the EU, with an average vehicle age of 13.5 years in 2015. These older cars contribute more to emissions than newer models due to the new models' low-emission technology and alternative fuels that can be utilized.
GHG emissions from aviation and shipping are also of increasing importance due to the global rise in domestic and international flights as well as sea cruises and traditional commercial navigation. In 2017, aviation contributed 11.6% of Greece's CO2-equivalent transport emissions. All airlines flying in and out of Greece abide by the EU emissions trading systems (EU ETS), in which they are required to document and report their emissions to the EU and can buy certain levels of emission allowances, all of amount to a cap that the EU sets on how much CO2 can be emitted in a single year. Companies can then trade for higher or lower emission allowances. So far, this system has helped reduce the aviation sector's carbon footprint by over 17 million tonnes per year. In comparison, in 2017, navigation contributed up to 36.1% of Greece's CO2-equivalent transport emissions. This section of transportation has been less regulated than road and aviation, but in 2018, the European Commission did make an amendment to the EU ETS to emphasize the need to take action to reduce emissions from shipping.
Impacts on natural landscape
Temperature rise Since the 1960s, Greece's average annual temperature has been rising. In addition, from 2000 to 2020, Greece's average annual temperature increase was 0.047°C, which is 0.011°C above the global average. Assuming the amount of global GHG emissions remain high, temperature increases in summer and autumn are produced to be higher than in spring, with the mainland regions experiencing more warming than the islands in all seasons except in autumn.
These temperature rises pose a threat to electricity supply, as the increased heat will put stress on thermal power plants, reducing the efficiency and increasing the need for cooling water. The population of Greece will be more likely to demand more electricity for air conditioning during extreme heat events which may result in power outages as seen in 2017 and 2020.
Extreme weather events
Fire Most Greek forests are fire-adapted, however increase in fire due to climate change threatens the natural equilibrium of the ecosystem. Fire in Greek forests are natural, with most plants being fire-adapted and are a determining factor in the development of the Greek ecosystems. With rising temperatures, fires in Greece will become more common and severe, above the natural standard, leading to long-lasting damage. Climate change is furthering the likelihood of forest fires due to rising air temperatures, land use changes and lack of rainfall. There have been changes in the reduction of time between successive fires and the time of the fire season. The region is now seeing a longer fire season with higher frequency and intensity.
The fire season is expected to rise by 15% and 70%, with a drop of 10% to 30% days of rainfall. This, alongside increased chance of heatwaves will further cause disruption to the Greek forests, affecting the ecosystems.
Heat waves By the year 2050 it is expected that Greece will be hit by 15-20 heatwaves in a year. A heatwave is defined as a day where the temperature becomes higher than the 90th percentile of temperatures for the region. This will contribute to 'Urban Heat Islands', causing areas in cities to have a difference in an estimated 8 to 10 degrees. This is due a lack of green areas and poor ventilation. Thus, Greek cities will feel extra pressure during climate change than rural areas. During the period of 1971-2000 the average number of heatwaves was 1.4, and this is expected to rise to an average of 6 over the next 25 years.
Sea level rise The coastal zone of Greece is 18,400km in length for the mainland and 9,835km for the islands. The population among the coast is high, with 33% of the Greek population inhabiting coastal areas 1-2 km from the coast and 85% living 50km from the coast. The coastal zone provides for valuable goods and services from the natural resources. This area is highly productive for the economic activity of Greece with 80% of industrial activities, 90% of tourism and 35% of agriculture occurring in the coastal zones. Coastal erosion caused by sea level rise is a significant issue for Greece.
Greece is under threat from coastal erosion, being the 4th most vulnerable country in Europe with over 20% of Greece's coastline under threat (EUROSION, 2004). There is heightened vulnerability of this coastal erosion due to sea level rise. The impact of sea level rise will occur by inundation and erosion. The southern part of Greece will be more vulnerable to these impacts than the northern side due to the geography of the area. Beach erosion will be damaging to Greek beaches as the beaches are vulnerable due to their small size, climatic characteristics and the negative sediment budgets. In the Mediterranean Sea, studies are indicating a sea-level rise of 1.1 – 1.3 mm/yr. By the end of the century it is estimated that there will be a coastal retreat of more than 280m. In 1990 United Nations Environment Programme warned of these impacts stating that 'it is likely that the impact of climate change will first be felt in the Mediterranean water resource system'.
Sustainability of the beach tourism sector will be challenged; the increasing erosion and inundation will cause the carrying-capacity of these highly populous beaches to become sensitive. Not only will the tourism sector be affected, but so will the economies that rely on the coast such as agriculture. Estimates for the cost of sea level rise show a cost of 24.9 billion for a 0.5m rise and 265.2 billion for a 1m rise in the sea level.
Terrestrial ecosystems Greece has one of the most biodiverse regions in the Earth, being a biodiversity hot spot. Greece is home to 22% of the biodiverse Mediterranean species and is home to 25 times more species than its landmass would suggest it could have. Greece's position in the Mediterranean basin is reason as to why the country has extremely high levels of biodiversity. An increase of 3.6 in the global temperature could cause a loss of over 50% of plant species in the Mediterranean.