2024 United States Senate elections

The 2024 United States Senate elections were held on November 5, 2024. Regularly scheduled elections were held for 33 out of the 100 seats in the U.S. Senate, and special elections were held in California and Nebraska. U.S. senators are divided into three classes whose six-year terms are staggered so that a different class is elected every two years. Class 1 senators faced election in 2024. Republicans flipped four Democratic-held seats, regaining a Senate majority for the first time in four years, and the most gains for either party since 2014. Republicans successfully defended all of their own seats for the first time since 2014. This was the first time since 1980 that Republicans flipped control of a chamber of Congress in a presidential year. These elections ran concurrently with the 2024 United States presidential election in which Kamala Harris lost to Donald Trump.

A total of 25 U.S. senators (14 Democrats, nine Republicans, and two independents) sought re-election in 2024, while seven senators declined to seek re-election. In addition, Democrats Sen. Laphonza Butler of California and Sen. George Helmy of New Jersey – each of whom had been appointed to their respective Senate seats – did not seek election in 2024. Concurrent with the 2024 regular Senate elections, two special Senate elections took place: one in California, to fill the final two months of Dianne Feinstein's term following her death in September 2023; and one in Nebraska, to fill the remaining two years of Ben Sasse's term following his resignation in January 2023.

Republicans won control of the U.S. Senate by flipping an open independent-held seat in West Virginia; defeating Democratic incumbents in Montana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania; and retaining all the seats they had previously held. Democrats flipped a seat in Arizona from an Independent who caucused with the Democrats. Democratic candidates were elected in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin, despite Trump having won those states. No Republican won in a state that Kamala Harris carried in the presidential election. This election cycle saw all but five Senate seats shift towards the Republicans from 2018, representing a record number of seats that shifted in the same direction as the party that concurrently won the White House.

Partisan composition All 33 Class 1 Senate seats, and one Class 2 seat, were up for election in 2024; Class 1 currently consisted of 20 Democrats, four independents who caucus with the Senate Democrats, and 10 Republicans.

Burgess Everett of Politico considered the map for these Senate elections to be highly unfavorable to Democrats. Democrats were to defend 23 of the 33 Class 1 seats, including three in states won by Republican Donald Trump in both 2016 and 2020. In contrast, there are no seats in this class held by Republicans in states won by Democrat Joe Biden in 2020. In the previous Senate election cycle that coincided with a presidential election (2020), only one senator (Susan Collins of Maine) was elected in a state that was simultaneously won by the presidential nominee of the opposite party.

Republican gains were attributed to better candidate quality compared to 2022 and to the coattails of Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, who won the 2024 presidential election. Times Eric Cortellessa wrote that the thesis of the Republicans' success boiled down to the simple slogan "Max out the men and hold the women", meaning emphasizing the economy and immigration, which Trump did "relentlessly". Cortellessa also mentioned Trump's minimization of his numerous controversies, and push-offs of criminal trials via "a combination of friendly judges and legal postponements" to after the election. He said Trump's "advanced age and increasingly incoherent trail rhetoric" were taken by voters in stride, and that "much of the country read Trump's legal woes as part of a larger corrupt conspiracy to deny him, and them, power". NPR wrote that "Americans have continued to chafe at higher than pre-pandemic prices and the lack of affordable housing", and that much of the voter placed the blame "squarely" on the Biden administration, wishing for the economy that had existed under the prior Trump Administration. NPR noted that demographics played an important role, with the share of Non-Hispanic White voters increasing from 67% to 71% of the electorate and the Republicans winning 46% of Latinos, as well as mentioning polling's "continued underestimation of Republicans' support nationally and in the key swing states".

Split-ticket voting The 2024 Senate elections saw a notable increase in split-ticket outcomes compared to recent cycles. Four states that Donald Trump won in the presidential election also elected Democratic senators: Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin. This represented approximately 12 percent of states with both contests on the ballot producing split outcomes—the highest share since 2012, when 18 percent of states split their tickets between presidential and Senate races.

Despite the split outcomes, the correlation between presidential and Senate race margins remained historically high at approximately 0.95, indicating that while some states elected different parties to each office, the margins in both races tracked closely together. The results also contributed to a historically low number of split Senate delegations, with only three states—Maine, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—having senators from different parties in the incoming 119th Congress, the lowest number since direct popular election of senators began in 1914.

Summary results Seats Parties Total Democratic Independent Republican last elections (2022) 49 2 49 100 Before these elections474 49 100 Not up 28 – 38 66 Class 2 (2020→2026) 13 – 19 32 Class 3 (2022→2028) 15 – 19 34 Up 19 4 11 33 Class 1 (2018→2024) 21 2 10 33Special: Class 1 & 2 1 — 1 2 General election Incumbent retiring 5 2 2 9 5 — 2 7 1 Independent replaced by 1 Republican 1 Independent replaced by 1 Democrat 2 6 — 3 9 Incumbent running 13 2 8 23 10 2 8 20 3 Democrats replaced by 3 Republicans 3 10 2 11 23 Special elections Appointee retiring 1 — — 1 Appointee running – – 1 1 1 – 1 2 1 – 1 2 Result 45 2 53 100

Votes +National results Parties Votes % Seats Totalbefore Up Won Totalafter +/- Democratic 49.10 47 1917 45 2 Republican 47.70 49 1115 53 4 Independent 1.10 4 42 2 2 Total 100.001003434100

Change in composition Each block represents one of the 100 seats in the U.S. Senate. "D#" is a Democratic/active senator, "I#" is an Independent senator, and "R#" is a Republican/active senator. They are arranged so that the parties are separated, and a majority is clear by crossing the middle.

Before the elections Each block indicates an incumbent senator's actions going into the election. After the June 1, 2024 party change of West Virginia.

D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D I I I Majority (with Independents) ↑ R R R R R R R R R I R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R

After the elections D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D I I R R R Majority → R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R Key D Democratic R RepublicanI Independent, caucusing with Democrats

Predictions

Several sites and individuals published predictions of competitive seats. These predictions looked at factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent was running for reelection) and the other candidates, and the state's partisan lean (reflected in part by the state's Cook Partisan Voting Index rating). The predictions assigned ratings to each seat, indicating the predicted advantage that a party had in winning that seat. Most election predictors used: "tossup": no advantage "tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean" "lean" or "leans": slight advantage "likely": significant, but surmountable, advantage "safe" or "solid": near-certain chance of victory Constituency Incumbent Ratings State PVI Senator Lastelection Cook IE Sabato RCP EDDDHQ/The HillFox538 Result Arizona 49.96% D

| Gallego50.06% D California Laphonza Butler Appointed

| Schiff58.87% D Connecticut 59.53% D

| Murphy58.58% D Delaware 59.95% D

| Blunt Rochester56.59% D Florida 50.05% R

| Scott55.57% R Hawaii 71.15% D

| Hirono64.61% D Indiana 50.73% R

| Alsobrooks54.64% D Massachusetts 60.34% D

| Warren59.81% D Michigan 52.26% D

| Slotkin48.64% D Minnesota 60.31% D

| Klobuchar56.20% D Mississippi 58.49% R

| Wicker62.81% R Missouri 51.38% R

| Hawley55.58% R Montana 50.33% D

| Sheehy52.64% R Nebraska 57.69% R

| Fischer53.19% R Nebraska Appointed

| Ricketts62.64% R Nevada 50.41% D

| Rosen47.87% D New Jersey Appointed

| Kim53.61% D New Mexico 54.09% D

| Heinrich55.06% D New York 67.00% D

| Gillibrand58.91% D North Dakota 55.45% R

| Cramer66.31% R Ohio 53.41% D

| Moreno50.09% R Pennsylvania 55.74% D

| McCormick48.82% R Rhode Island 61.44% D

| Whitehouse59.90% D Tennessee 54.71% R

| Blackburn63.80% R Texas 50.89% R

| Cruz53.07% R Utah 62.59% R

| Kaine54.37% D Washington 58.43% D

| Cantwell59.09% D West Virginia 49.57% D

| Justice68.75% R Wisconsin 55.36% D

| Baldwin49.33% D Wyoming 66.96% R

Gains and holds Retirements

Two Independents, two Republicans and five Democrats retired instead of seeking re-election. Senator Dianne Feinstein had previously announced her intent to retire at the end of her term; however, she died in office on September 29, 2023.

StateSenator Age atend of term AssumedofficeReplaced by Arizona 48 2019 California 45 2023 Delaware 77 2001 Indiana 70 2019 Maryland 81 2007 Michigan 74 2001 New Jersey 45 2024 Utah 77 2019 West Virginia 2010

Defeats Three Democrats sought re-election but lost in the general election.

StateSenatorAge atend of termAssumedofficeReplaced by Montana 68 2007 Ohio 72 2007 Pennsylvania 64 2007

Post-election changes Two Republicans resigned shortly after the start of the 119th Congress, and another Republican resigned during the 119th Congress. One Republican died during the 119th Congress. All were replaced by Republican appointees. In Florida and Ohio, the 2026 special elections will be held prior to the 2028 Senate elections for the remainder of the Class 3 term, where Republican appointees Ashley Moody and Jon Husted will run in these special elections to finish the term. In Oklahoma, a regular scheduled election will be held in the 2026 Senate elections for the Class 2 terms, where the declared candidates will run in the election to succeed Republican appointee Alan Armstrong, who will not seek election. In addition, one Republican died during the 119th Congress. StateSenatorReplaced by Ohio(Class 3) Florida(Class 3) Oklahoma(Class 2) South Carolina(Class 2)

Race summary Special elections during the preceding Congress In each special election, the winner's term begins immediately after their election is certified by their state's government.

Elections are sorted by date, then state.

2024 United States Senate elections

Bron en licentie