A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends."bellwether." Cambridge Dictionary. Retrieved 2022-01-22. In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the smaller region might predict the eventual result in the larger region.
Overview
In politics, a bellwether can apply in a metaphorical sense to a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. In a Westminster-style election, for example, a constituency, the control of which tends frequently to change, can have a popular vote that mirrors the result on a national scale. An electoral bellwether can be a ward, precinct, town, county, or other district that accurately reflects how a geographic region (state, province, etc.) will vote during elections. Bellwethers change over time and sometimes can only be accurately identified in retrospect, with election cycles with major shifts sometimes called "realignments" that shake up the status of which areas are bellwethers. Bellwethers can also differ by the type of elections: a bellwether in a general election can differ from a party primary bellwether.
Specific countries Australia In Australian federal elections, the Division of Robertson in New South Wales became the nation's new longest-running bellwether seat, continuously won by the party that also won government since the 1983 federal election. Previously, the electoral division of Eden-Monaro elected its Member of Parliament from the party which won government at every federal election from 1972 until 2016, when the record was broken after Labor won the seat, while the Coalition won government. The Division of Lindsay in NSW, has elected its Member of Parliament from the party which won government in every Federal election since its creation in 1984 until 2016. Both Lindsay and Eden-Monaro lost their bellwether status at the 2016 federal election, both electing Labor MPs, despite a narrow Coalition win nationwide.
The Division of Makin in South Australia was a bellwether division from 1984 to 2010, although ceased its bellwether record in 2013, when Makin stayed Labor as the Coalition regained power nationwide. Also, in terms of nationwide two party preferred vote, Eden-Monaro, Lindsay, Robertson and Makin have bucked the bellwether trend in the past by voting Liberal at the 1998 federal election. In purely statistical terms, the state of New South Wales, which has the largest population of any Australian state or territory, could also be considered a "bellwether", as, until the 2016 federal election the party which wins government has won the majority of House of Representatives seats in that state at every election since 1963. Unlike many bellwethers, these are cited by analysts solely for their record and are not usually attributed to demographic factors that reflect the median of Australia.
List of electorates described as bellwethers Below are seats that have been classified as bellwether seats won by the party forming government at least once at one of the past 10 elections. Below the winning party is the two-party-preferred vote.
Electorate State/territory Winning party Government elected 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 Lib/Nat Coalition Labor Lib/Nat Coalition Labor 50.98% 51.03% 52.79% 52.70% 50.12% 53.49% 50.36% 51.53% 52.13% 54.83% Seat winner 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 Bass TAS Labor Liberal Labor Liberal Labor Liberal Labor 50.06% 52.06% 52.63% 51.00% 56.74% 54.04% 56.09% 50.41% 51.43% 57.92% Braddon TAS Labor Liberal Labor Liberal Labor Liberal Labor 54.33% 55.96% 51.13% 51.44% 57.48% 52.56% 52.20% 53.09% 58.03% 57.24% Chisholm VIC Labor Liberal Labor 52.07% 52.77% 52.65% 57.38% 56.11% 51.60% 51.24% 50.57% 56.41% 55.76% Corangamite VIC Liberal Labor Liberal Labor 54.50% 55.67% 55.32% 50.85% 50.41% 53.94% 53.13% 51.07% 57.60% 58.10% Dobell NSW Labor Liberal Labor Liberal Labor 53.35% 50.38% 55.90% 53.90% 55.07% 50.68% 54.81% 51.50% 56.52% 59.28% Eden-Monaro NSW Liberal Labor Liberal Labor 50.18% 51.69% 52.14% 53.40% 54.24% 50.61% 52.93% 50.85% 58.20% 57.35% Forde QLD Liberal Labor Liberal National Labor 55.25% 57.38% 62.98% 52.91% 51.63% 54.38% 50.63% 58.60% 54.23% 51.78% Hasluck WA colspan="1" rowspan="2" Labor Liberal Labor Liberal Labor 51.78% 51.82% 51.26% 50.57% 54.87% 52.05% 55.21% 56.00% 66.29% Leichhardt QLD Liberal Labor Liberal National Labor 54.05% 56.39% 60.00% 54.01% 54.55% 55.68% 53.95% 54.17% 53.44% 56.09% Lindsay NSW Liberal Labor Liberal Labor Liberal 51.28% 55.47% 55.26% 56.78% 51.12% 52.99% 51.11% 55.04% 56.34% 53.08% Longman QLD Liberal Labor Liberal National Labor Liberal National 50.92% 52.72% 57.66% 53.57% 51.92% 56.92% 50.79% 53.28% 53.03% 50.13% Lyons TAS Labor Liberal Labor 60.61% 58.17% 53.68% 58.78% 62.29% 51.22% 52.31% 55.18% 50.92% 61.51% Makin SA Liberal Labor 50.94% 53.76% 50.93% 57.70% 62.20% 55.06% 59.65% 59.72% 60.80% 64.87% McEwen VIC Liberal Labor 51.04% 51.20% 56.42% 50.01% 55.32% 50.15% 57.85% 55.02% 53.28% 54.65% Page NSW National Labor National 52.36% 52.77% 54.23% 52.36% 54.19% 52.52% 52.30% 59.45% 60.74% 59.31% Petrie QLD Liberal Labor Liberal National Labor 50.75% 53.42% 57.92% 52.02% 52.51% 50.53% 51.65% 58.40% 54.44% 51.09% Robertson NSW Liberal Labor Liberal Labor 52.01% 56.98% 56.81% 50.11% 51.00% 53.00% 51.14% 54.24% 52.26% 59.18% Solomon NT colspan="1" rowspan="2" Country Liberal Labor Country Liberal Labor 50.09% 52.81% 50.19% 51.75% 51.40% 56.00% 53.08% 59.37% 51.27%
Canada In the Canadian province of Ontario, Sarnia—Lambton (and its predecessor ridings) voted for the winning party in every federal election from 1963 until 2011. This streak was broken in 2015, when the Conservative Party held the district while the Liberal Party won government, and the riding has become reliably Conservative since—although unusually, Conservative MP Marilyn Gladu crossed the floor to the Liberals in 2026. Toronto—St. Paul's has only elected three opposition MPs since it contested its first election, as St. Paul's, in 1935, although it has become reliably Liberal in recent years. Burlington and St. Catharines currently share the longest active streak, having elected an MP from the winning party since 1984. Also in Ontario, Peterborough—Kawartha (called Peterborough until 2015) has consistently elected the party which has won the provincial election since 1977. In federal politics, the coterminous federal electoral district Peterborough—Kawartha (also called Peterborough until 2015) elected a member of the winning party from 1965 to 1979 and 1984 until 2021, inclusive.
In Alberta, the provincial electoral district Peace River has elected only three opposition MLAs since the province was founded in 1905. In Manitoba, the federal district of Winnipeg South has voted for the winning party in each election since it was re-formed in 1988; a previous version of the same riding, which elected MPs from 1917 until 1974 inclusive, voted against the national winner only three times, most recently in 1965. Also in Manitoba, the provincial riding of Rossmere, which has existed since 1969, has voted for the candidate from the governing party in every general election since it was first contested except for that of 1977; it also elected opposition MLAs at by-elections in 1979 and 1993.
Germany Since the creation of the Federal Republic of Germany (then West Germany) in 1949, the state where the leading party list vote (Zweitstimmen) matched the party of the subsequently chosen Chancellor the most times is Schleswig-Holstein (with two misses: 1969 and 2005), followed by the state of Lower Saxony (with misses in 1949, 1969 and 2005). Both states lie in the North of the country, neither containing many large industrial cities (the biggest being Kiel and Hannover respectively), nor large rural Catholic populations, the traditional base of the SPD and CDU/CSU respectively. Schleswig-Holstein is also famous for having had several state elections result in a one-seat majority for the winning coalition and Lower Saxony's 1998 election (in which Gerhard Schröder was the SPD candidate) is often seen as a "trial run" for the subsequent federal election (which Schröder also won). Of the first vote constituencies (Erststimmen), the constituency of Pinneberg (also located in Schleswig-Holstein) has voted for the party of the subsequently chosen Chancellor in all elections except for 1949.
Both the 1949 and the 1969 elections were rather narrow, the former resulting in a one-vote majority in the election for chancellor and the latter resulting in a 12-seat majority that had broken down due to defections by 1972. In 2005 SPD and CDU/CSU were only separated by one percentage point and four seats in the final tally. In the 2021 German federal election the SPD placed first in 12 out of 16 states, including Schleswig-Holstein and Lower Saxony as well as federally while being led by former First Mayor of Hamburg, Olaf Scholz, the State of Hamburg borders both Lower Saxony and Schleswig-Holstein, but Scholz did not run in Hamburg during that election, instead representing the District Potsdam – Potsdam-Mittelmark II – Teltow-Fläming II in Brandenburg (where he incidentally ran against Annalena Baerbock candidate for chancellor of Alliance 90/The Greens, drawing additional media attention to the District).
India Two individual seats, Valsad and West Delhi, have successfully voted for the victorious party for the last eleven general elections in India. Furthermore, the party that wins the majority of seats in Delhi has always gone on to form the national government since 1998. The state of Uttar Pradesh is also seen as a bellwether, with the national government having been formed the majority of times by the party that won the most seats in the state.
Indonesia For the past five elections, there have been 12 provinces where, if a presidential candidate wins them, it is guaranteed that they win the general election. Those 12 provinces are Bangka Belitung Islands, Central Java, North Sumatra, Central Kalimantan, North Sulawesi, East Java, Yogyakarta, Lampung, Papua, Riau Islands, Jakarta, and Central Sulawesi.
Ireland Ireland has a proportional representation electoral system, in which politicians are elected by the single transferable vote. Bellwethers here can only be measured by the number of candidates from each side elected to Ireland's multiple-seat constituencies that elect an odd number of members. Between the 1981 general election and 2011 general election, Meath and its successors, Meath East and Meath West, have elected a majority of Fianna Fáil TDs in years when Fianna Fáil formed the government, and a majority of Fine Gael and Labour TDs when those parties formed the government.
New Zealand In New Zealand, there are three generally accepted bellwether electorates: Hamilton East and Hamilton West, both based around the city of Hamilton, and Northcote on Auckland's North Shore. Hamilton West and Northcote missed one election each since they were first contested in 1969 and 1996 respectively — the for Hamilton West and the for Northcote. Hamilton East, first contested in 1972, has missed three elections — 1993, 1999, and 2005. They were all held by the National Party in the 2017 election although Labour formed the government after the election. Since the National Party was still returned as the largest party in Parliament, however, the two electorates did in fact retain their bellwether status, albeit to a limited extent.
Philippines