Opinion polling for the 2002 New Zealand general election

Opinion polling was commissioned throughout the duration of the 46th New Zealand Parliament in the lead up to the 2002 election by various organisations.

Party vote Polls are listed in the table below in chronological order. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey firms.

Graphical summary

Individual polls PollDateThese are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released. Labour National Alliance ACT Green NZ First United Future Prog 1999 election result 27 Nov 1999 38.74 30.50 7.74 7.04 5.16 4.26 N/AUnited Future was founded in 2000 and Jim Anderton's Progressive Party was founded in 2002, thus neither party contested the 1999 general election. TV3/CM Research poll 28 Feb 2000 51 30 5 4 4 3 – – One News Colmar Brunton 28 Feb 2000 50 31 4.3 5 4.3 2.1 – – TV3/CM Research poll 18 Apr 2000 53 28 3 4 5 1 – – TV3/CM Research poll 26 Jun 2000 46 34 4 4 5 2 – – Herald-DigiPoll 30 Jun 2000 43 32 8 10 3 6 – – June 2000 – Dover Samuels resigns from Cabinet pending an investigation into alleged sex crimes committed before he entered politics. TV3/CM Research poll 22 Aug 2000 47 36 3 4 5 2 – – NBR-Compaq 7–10 Sep 2000 36 41 6 4 7 – – – TV3/CM Research poll 31 Oct 2000 44 39 5 3 4 2 – – TV3/CM Research poll 20 Feb 2001 49 34 4.5 3.6 4.7 1.5 – – TV3-NFO 9 Apr 2001 50 32 3.7 4.2 5 2 0.5 – NBR-Compaq 5 May 2001 43 32 5 6 6.5 – – – One News Colmar Brunton 14 May 2001 44 41 2 – 6 – – – TV3-NFO 11 Jun 2001 49 31 3.5 2 7 3.3 – – 8 October 2001 – Bill English is elected leader of the National Party. One News Colmar Brunton 9–12 Oct 2001 46 39 2 3.1 5 3.5 – – NBR-Compaq 19 Oct 2001 43 33 3.8 5.2 8 3.6 – – One News Colmar Brunton 12 Nov 2001 44 40 4 3 5 2 – – TV3/CM Research poll 17 Dec 2001 45 35 3 3 6 3 – – TV3/CM Research poll 27 Feb 2002 54 30 2.2 3 6 2.2 – – April 2002 – Jim Anderton leaves the Alliance and Laila Harré replaces him as leader. NBR HP-Invent 7 Jun 2002 53 29 0.5 4.5 7.2 3.3 – 1.3 TV3-NFO 10 Jun 2002 56 24 1.2 3.9 9 3.1 <0.5 <0.5 Herald-DigiPoll 10 Jun 2002 49.9 31.2 0.1 4.7 7.7 2.5 0.1 0.7 One News Colmar Brunton 17 Jun 2002 53 27 0.5 4 9 3 – 2 Herald-DigiPoll 26 Jun 2002 52.1 25.7 0.5 4.4 8.3 3.8 – 2 Herald-DigiPoll 3 Jul 2002 51.2 24.6 0.4 5.7 9.6 4.4 0.1 1.4 TV3-NFO 5 Jul 2002 51 24 1.1 5 10.8 5.7 – 1.1 Herald-DigiPoll 11 Jul 2002 48 24.5 0.4 5.8 10.1 6.4 0.7 1.5 TV3-NFO 11 Jul 2002 48 24 1.2 6.3 7.9 7.9 0.9 0.8 One News Colmar Brunton 15 Jul 2002 46 27 1 8 9 6 – 1 Herald-DigiPoll 17 Jul 2002 46.7 23.1 0.4 5.5 11.3 8.3 1.1 1.3 TV3-NFO 18 Jul 2002 46 25 1.4 6 9 8 0.7 0.7 Herald-DigiPoll 22 Jul 2002 40.8 23.6 0.4 8.1 6.9 10.2 6.6 1.3 One News Colmar Brunton 25 Jul 2002 44 21 1 7 8 10 4 0.5 TV3-NFO 25 Jul 2002 43 21 1.4 8 9 8 3.9 1.2 Herald-DigiPoll 26 Jul 2002 38.8 23.2 1.3 8.9 9 9.6 5.4 1.4 2002 election result 27 Jul 2002 41.26 20.93 1.27 7.14 7.00 10.38 6.69 1.70

Preferred prime minister Individual polls PollDateThese are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released. Helen Clark Jenny Shipley Winston Peters Jim Anderton TV3/CM Research poll 28 Feb 2000 36 13 - - One News Colmar Brunton 28 Feb 2000 43 16 - - TV3/CM Research poll 18 Apr 2000 42 13 - - TV3/CM Research poll 22 Aug 2000 31 16 - - TV3/CM Research poll 18 Apr 2000 28 14 - - TV3/CM Research poll 20 Feb 2001 35 16 - - TV3/CM Research poll 20 Feb 2001 30 13 - - TV3-NFO 9 Apr 2001 36 11 – – One News Colmar Brunton 14 May 2001 37 17 – 3 PollDateThese are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released. Helen Clark Bill English Winston Peters Jim Anderton One News Colmar Brunton 9–12 Oct 2001 41 21 – – One News Colmar Brunton 12 Nov 2001 40 19 – – TV3/CM Research poll 17 Dec 2001 41 17 - - TV3/CM Research poll 27 Feb 2002 41 10 5 3 One News Colmar Brunton 17 Jun 2002 52 17 4 2 One News Colmar Brunton 15 Jul 2002 48 19 7 2

Electorate polling Wellington Central Candidate vote PollDateThese are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released. Marian Hobbs Hekia Parata Robert Reid Dominion Post BRC 2-4 Jul 2002 32 15 1

Wigram Candidate vote PollDateThese are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released. Jim Anderton Mike Mora Alec Neill Sean Gourley UMR Research 22 Jul 2002 40.6 26.4 19 2

Waitakere Candidate vote PollDateThese are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released. Lynne Pillay Laila Harré Marie Hasler Consumer Link 24 Jul 2002 33 25 24

Coromandel Candidate vote PollDateThese are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released. Sandra Goudie Max Purnell Jeanette Fitzsimons Consumer Link 24 Jul 2002 33 27 24

Te Tai Tokerau Candidate vote PollDateThese are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released. Dover Samuels MereMangu Marae DigiPoll 6–17 Jul 2002 44 9

See also Opinion polling for the 2005 New Zealand general election Politics of New Zealand

Notes

References