A regional election was held in Navarre on 26 May 2019 to elect the 10th Parliament of the chartered community. All 50 seats in the Parliament were up for election. It was held concurrently with regional elections in eleven other autonomous communities and local elections all across Spain, as well as the 2019 European Parliament election.
Ahead of the election, the three main right-from-centre parties—namely, Navarrese People's Union (UPN), the People's Party (PP) and Citizens (Cs)—signed an electoral alliance under the Navarra Suma (NA+) brand, in order to maximize their options against the incumbent government, formed by Geroa Bai (GBai), EH Bildu and Izquierda-Ezkerra (I–E) with external support from Podemos, which in the previous election had ousted UPN from power after 19 years of uninterrupted rule. Concurrently, the Socialist Party of Navarre (PSN–PSOE) under María Chivite was on the rise, benefitting from a national bandwagon effect for the party following the general election held only one month earlier, on 28 April.
The election saw a victory for the NA+ alliance, which was able to secure more seats than the incumbent government (20 to 19). In particular, the collapse in the Podemos's vote share benefitted the PSN–PSOE, which scored its best result since 2007. There was speculation that UPN would be able to access the regional government through an agreement or consent from the PSN, but Chivite opted instead to secure the support of GBai, Podemos and I–E, as well as EH Bildu's tactical abstention, to become the first Socialist president of Navarre since Javier Otano stepped down from the office in 1996.
Overview Under the 1982 Reintegration and Improvement of the Chartered Regime, the Parliament of Navarre was the unicameral legislature of the homonymous chartered community, having legislative power in devolved matters, as well as the ability to grant or withdraw confidence from a regional president.. The electoral and procedural rules were supplemented by national law provisions..
Date The term of the Parliament of Navarre expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. If no snap election was called before the last year of the legislative term, the election decree was required to be issued no later than 54 days before the scheduled election date and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of Navarre (BON), with election day taking place on the fourth Sunday of May four years after the previous election.; ( by ). The previous election was held on 24 May 2015, setting the latest possible date for election day on the fourth Sunday of May four years later, which was 26 May 2019.
The regional president had the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Navarre at any given time and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election was due and some time requirements are met: namely, that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or during the last year of parliament before its planned expiration, nor before one year after a previous one under this procedure.; . In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a three-month period from election day, the Parliament was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called..
The election to the Parliament of Navarre was officially called on 2 April 2019 with the publication of the corresponding decree in the BON, setting election day for 26 May and scheduling for the chamber to reconvene on 19 June..
Electoral system Voting for the Parliament was based on universal suffrage, comprising all Spanish nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Navarre and with full political rights, provided that they had not been deprived of the right to vote by a final sentence.; ( by ). Additionally, non-resident citizens were required to apply for voting, a system known as "begged" voting ()..
The Parliament of Navarre had a minimum of 40 and a maximum of 60 seats, with electoral provisions fixing its size at 50. All were elected in a single multi-member constituency—corresponding to the chartered community's territory—using the D'Hondt method and closed-list proportional voting, with a three percent-threshold of valid votes (including blank ballots) regionally.; .
The law did not provide for by-elections to fill vacant seats; instead, any vacancies arising after the proclamation of candidates and during the legislative term were filled by the next candidates on the party lists or, when required, by designated substitutes. ( by ).
Outgoing parliament The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the time of the election call.
+ Parliamentary composition in April 2019 Groups Parties Legislators Seats Total Navarrese People's Union Parliamentary Group UPN 15 15 Yes to the Future Parliamentary Group Zabaltzen 8 9 EAJ/PNV 1 EH Bildu Navarre Parliamentary Group EH Bildu 8 8 We Can–Now Yes Parliamentary Group Orain Bai 4 7 Podemos 3 Socialist Party of Navarre Parliamentary Group PSN–PSOE 7 7 Mixed Group PP 2 4 I–E (n) 2
Parties and candidates The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, alliances and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant electoral commission within 10 days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in Navarre, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list. ( by ). Additionally, a balanced composition of men and women was required in the electoral lists, so that candidates of either sex made up at least 40 percent of the total composition..
Below is a list of the main parties and alliances which contested the election:
Candidacy Parties andalliances Leading candidate Ideology Previous result Vote % Seats NA+ Javier Esparza RegionalismChristian democracyConservatismLiberalism 34.3% GBai Uxue Barkos Basque nationalismSocial democracy 15.8% EH Bildu Bakartxo Ruiz Basque independenceAbertzale leftSocialism 14.2% Podemos Mikel Buil Left-wing populismDirect democracyDemocratic socialism 13.7% PSN–PSOE María Chivite Social democracy 13.4% I–E (n) Marisa de Simón SocialismCommunism 3.7%
Opinion polls The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.
Voting intention estimates The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 26 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Navarre.
Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout Lead 2019 regional election 26 May 2019 68.5 17.3 14.5 4.7 20.6 3.0 – 1.3 36.6 16.0 ElectoPanel/Electomanía 22–23 May 2019?? 18.4 15.2 9.1 18.0 4.1 – 3.1 31.2 12.8 ElectoPanel/Electomanía 21–22 May 2019?? 18.3 15.1 8.9 18.5 4.1 – 2.9 31.1 12.6 ElectoPanel/Electomanía 20–21 May 2019?? 18.4 15.2 9.0 18.5 4.0 – 3.0 31.0 12.5 ElectoPanel/Electomanía 19–20 May 2019?? 18.3 15.1 9.1 18.7 3.9 – 2.9 30.7 12.0 NC Report/La Razón 19 May 2019?? ??? 20.1 ? –? 33.7 13.6 inPactos 17–19 May 2019 1,200? 17.0 13.0? 17.5 3.0 – 3.3 34.0 16.5 ElectoPanel/Electomanía 16–19 May 2019?? 18.9 15.5 8.8 18.0 4.4 – 3.7 29.7 10.8 Sigma Dos/El Mundo 17 May 2019?? 17.6 13.5 6.3 18.4 5.2 – 1.0 35.3 16.9 Gizaker/Grupo Noticias 17 May 2019 900 70 20.6 16.2 8.7 14.9 5.3 – 4.4 28.8 8.2 ElectoPanel/Electomanía 13–16 May 2019?? 18.6 15.4 8.6 19.5 3.7 – 3.1 30.1 10.6 Gizaker/EITB 14–15 May 2019 650 70.0 18.5 16.9 10.3 15.2 3.4 – 3.5 31.0 12.5 ElectoPanel/Electomanía 10–13 May 2019?? 18.5 15.6 8.4 19.5 4.0 – 3.1 29.6 10.1 CIES/Diario de Navarra 6–13 May 2019 1,217 71 16.9 14.5? 18.0 3.8 – 2.6 34.8 16.8 ElectoPanel/Electomanía 7–10 May 2019?? 18.2 16.1 7.9 19.9 4.4 – 3.0 29.3 9.4 Gizaker/Grupo Noticias 7–9 May 2019 1,200 71.5 19.8 15.3 9.6 16.6 4.1 – 4.3 30.0 10.2 ElectoPanel/Electomanía 4–7 May 2019?? 18.7 16.0 7.6 19.3 4.6 – 3.2 29.5 10.2 ElectoPanel/Electomanía 29 Apr–4 May 2019?? 18.0 16.6 7.1 19.5 4.9 – 2.9 29.9 10.4 April 2019 general election 28 Apr 2019 72.5 6.1 12.7 25.8 18.6 4.8 29.3 4.5 CIS 21 Mar–23 Apr 2019 381? 14.0 14.1 10.8 21.2 4.4 – – 30.2 9.0 CIES/Diario de Navarra 8–15 Apr 2019 800 71–74 17.6 13.9 8.4 17.1 ? –? 34.7 17.1 ElectoPanel/Electomanía 31 Mar–7 Apr 2019?? 20.2 15.2 6.9 17.4 4.9 – 2.3 31.3 11.1 ElectoPanel/Electomanía 24–31 Mar 2019?? 20.0 15.3 7.0 17.7 5.1 – 2.3 30.6 10.6 ElectoPanel/Electomanía 17–24 Mar 2019?? 19.9 15.2 7.1 18.6 4.7 – 2.3 30.5 10.6 ElectoPanel/Electomanía 10–17 Mar 2019?? 19.5 15.0 7.3 18.3 4.7 – 2.6 30.5 11.0 ElectoPanel/Electomanía 3–10 Mar 2019?? 25.9 19.4 15.0 7.4 18.3 4.7 5.1 – 2.4 – 6.5 ElectoPanel/Electomanía 22 Feb–3 Mar 2019?? 26.0 18.8 15.0 19.3 5.5 7.0 2.7 – 6.7 Gizaker/EITB 23 Nov–3 Dec 2018 650? 23.5 23.0 15.4 7.5 9.4 3.0 7.7 6.6 – 1.1 – 0.5 GAD3/Navarra.com 16–18 Oct 2018 806????????? – – –? UPNA/Parliament of Navarre 3–10 Oct 2018 955? 25.9 18.4 14.3 6.4 16.3 2.2 4.8 5.4 – – – 7.5 Telwind/Grupo Noticias 3–4 Sep 2018 1,200 68.6 25.4 19.9 14.9 10.5 13.6 3.0 4.2 5.4 – – – 5.5 GBai 6 Jun 2018?????????? – – –? SyM Consulting 5–6 Jun 2018 700 66.1 24.3 15.4 14.5 5.3 20.0 2.4 5.9 7.6 – – – 4.3 Gizaker/EITB 14–21 May 2018 600? 24.8 19.6 14.5 8.5 13.7 1.6 7.2 6.4 – – – 5.2 SyM Consulting 8–10 Mar 2018 1,100 69.6 23.9 17.1 16.7 6.0 16.0 2.6 4.9 8.6 – – – 6.8 inPactos 15–27 Jan 2018 515 70 28.0 18.0 15.0 7.0 16.0 4.0 4.0 3.0 – – – 10.0 UPNA/Parliament of Navarre 25 Sep–8 Oct 2017 900 70 28.3 15.3 16.5 11.2 10.4 5.3 3.7 3.1 – – – 11.8 Gizaker/EITB 16–20 May 2017 600? 25.2 20.5 15.1 12.3 11.2 4.0 4.4 – – – – 4.7 Telwind/Grupo Noticias 3–9 May 2017 1,200? 26.7 18.0 14.8 12.8 11.7 3.8 4.5 3.1 – – – 8.7 UPNA/Parliament of Navarre 12–26 Sep 2016 800 67.4 27.5 15.5 15.6 11.7 12.4 5.3 3.8 2.6 – – – 11.9 2016 general election 26 Jun 2016 67.4 4.3 9.4 17.3 31.9 6.1 28.3 – – 3.6 2015 general election 20 Dec 2015 70.9 8.7 9.9 23.0 15.5 28.9 4.1 7.1 – – – 5.9 2015 regional election 24 May 2015 68.3 27.4 15.8 14.2 13.7 13.4 3.9 3.7 3.0 – – – 11.6
Voting preferences The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.
Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Lead 2019 regional election 26 May 2019 12.4 10.5 3.4 14.8 2.2 – 0.9 26.2 27.8 11.4 April 2019 general election 28 Apr 2019 4.6 9.6 19.5 14.1 3.6 22.1 23.7 2.6 CIS 21 Mar–23 Apr 2019 381 10.3 9.2 6.7 13.9 2.9 – – 13.1 33.8 6.2 0.8 UPNA/Parliament of Navarre 3–10 Oct 2018 955 18.2 16.0 8.5 5.8 15.5 2.0 5.0 4.9 – – – 12.0 8.5 2.2 UPNA/Parliament of Navarre 25 Sep–8 Oct 2017 900 11.3 11.1 7.5 5.6 7.2 3.1 2.3 2.4 – – – 40.7 5.2 0.2 UPNA/Parliament of Navarre 12–26 Sep 2016 800 12.8 6.7 5.8 7.5 7.0 3.2 2.9 0.9 – – – 40.4 9.7 6.1 2016 general election 26 Jun 2016 3.0 6.6 12.1 22.3 4.3 19.8 – – 29.4 2.5 2015 general election 20 Dec 2015 6.4 7.3 16.9 11.4 21.3 3.0 5.2 – – – 25.7 4.4 2015 regional election 24 May 2015 19.2 11.2 10.1 9.7 9.5 2.8 2.6 2.1 – – – 28.6 8.0
Victory preferences