2019 Madeiran regional election

Regional elections were held on 22 September 2019"Marcelo anuncia eleições legislativas em 6 de outubro", Sapo 24, 7 December 2018. Retrieved 7 December 2018. to determine the composition of the Legislative Assembly of the Autonomous Region of Madeira in Portugal. All 47 members of the Assembly were up for election.

The Social Democratic Party continued their 43-year streak of being the largest party in the Madeiran legislature, but failed to hold on to their absolute majority, and would require a coalition for the first time to remain in power. The party won 39 percent of the votes, a decrease of 5 percentage points, and lost 3 members of the regional party. In the electoral map, the PSD lost the two biggest cities in Madeira, Funchal and Santa Cruz to the PS, although by less than 2 percent of the vote. Overall, the PSD still won the majority of municipalities, obtaining victory in 7 of the 11 in Madeira.

The Socialist Party surged in these elections, polling just two seats and 3.6 points behind the PSD. It was the best showing of the PS in a regional election in Madeira going back to the first regional elections in 1976, two years after the fall of the dictatorship. The party won 4 of the 11 municipalities in Madeira. The People's Party lost a lot of votes and seats in these elections, winning just 3 seats and 5.8 percent of the vote. Together for the People (JPP) also suffered a big setback by losing 2 members and almost 5 percent of the votes. It even failed to obtain second place in their traditional bastion of Santa Cruz, falling behind the PS and PSD. The Unitary Democratic Coalition lost 1 of their 2 seats, and lost 3.7 percent of votes compared to 2015. The Left Bloc was wiped from the regional Assembly completely and only won 1.7 percent of the votes. These elections were fought mainly between the PSD and PS, and many left-wing voters opted to vote tactically for the PS to prevent another PSD victory, but by doing so, they hurt the chances of smaller left-wing parties and alliances such as the Left Bloc and CDU.PSD ganha eleições na Madeira mas perde maioria absoluta. PS dispara, Jornal de Negócios, 22 September 2019. Retrieved 23 September 2019.

The turnout in these elections increased compared to the previous one for the first time in over a decade, with 55.5 percent of voters casting a ballot, compared with the record-low 49.6 percent in the 2015 elections.

Following the elections, PSD and CDS-PP formed a coalition government with a parliamentary majority, headed by Miguel Albuquerque.

Background Leadership changes and challenges Socialist Party After the party's dismal result in the 2015 regional election, just 11 percent of the votes, the then PS leader, Victor Freitas resigned and a leadership ballot was called. Carlos João Pereira was the sole candidate for the leadership and was elected with 70% of the votes. However, Pereira's leadership divided the party, as he spent much more time in the Assembly of the Republic, in Lisbon, rather than in Madeira. A leadership ballot was called for 19 January 2018 and two candidates were on the ballot: Incumbent leader Carlos Pereira and Porto Moniz mayor, Emanuel Câmara. Câmara defeated Pereira by a 57 to 43 percent margin. The results were the following:

Despite being elected leader, Emanuel Câmara announced that he would not be the party's candidate for the Presidency of the Regional Government and that he would pick Funchal mayor Paulo Cafôfo as the party's lead candidate.

Electoral system The current 47 members of the Madeiran regional parliament are elected in a single constituency by proportional representation under the D'Hondt method, coinciding with the territory of the Region.Comissão Nacional de Eleições - Eleição para a Assembleia Legislativa da Região Autónoma da Madeira 2007

Parties Current composition The table below lists parties represented in the Legislative Assembly of Madeira before the election. Name Ideology Leader 2015 result % Seats PPD/PSD Social Democratic Party Liberal conservatism Miguel Albuquerque 44.4% CDS–PP CDS – People's Party Conservatism Rui Barreto 13.1% PS Socialist Party Social democracy Emanuel Câmara Paulo Cafôfo 11.4% PTP Portuguese Labour Party Social democracy Quintino Costa JPP Together for the People Social liberalism Élvio Sousa 10.3% PCP Portuguese Communist Party Communism Edgar Silva 5.5% B.E. Left Bloc Democratic socialism Paulino Ascenção 3.8% Ind. IndependentGil Canha (elected for the now extinct PND)

Parties running in the election 17 parties were on the ballot for the 2019 Madeira regional election. The parties that contested the election and their lead candidates were: (parties/coalitions are ordered by the way they appeared on the ballot)Sorteio das Candidaturas - ALRAM 2019, Comissão Nacional de Eleições, 14 August 2019. Retrieved 25 August 2019.

Democratic Republican Party (PDR), Filipe RebeloLegislativas 2019: Filipe Rebelo é candidato do PDR às regionais na Madeira e às legislativas, Sapo24, 23 August 2019. Retrieved 25 August 2019. Enough (CH), Miguel TeixeiraEleições na Madeira: Chega diz que vai ser governo na região “custe o que custar”, Sapo24, 19 August 2019. Retrieved 25 August 2019. National Renovator Party (PNR), Álvaro AraújoEleições na Madeira: PNR defende redução de deputados de 47 para 30, Sapo24, 19 August 2019. Retrieved 25 August 2019. Left Bloc (BE), Paulino Ascenção Socialist Party (PS), Paulo Cafôfo People-Animals-Nature (PAN), João Henrique de FreitasEleições na Madeira: PAN ressurge na região e quer eleger dois deputados, Sapo24, 20 August 2019. Retrieved 25 August 2019. Alliance (A), Joaquim SousaEleições na Madeira: Aliança considera “estruturante” a eleição de um grupo parlamentar, Sapo24, 20 August 2019. Retrieved 25 August 2019. Earth Party (MPT), Valter RodriguesEleições na Madeira: MPT quer ressurgir e eleger representação parlamentar, Sapo24, 20 August 2019. Retrieved 25 August 2019. Portuguese Workers' Communist Party (PCTP/MRPP), Fernanda CalaçaEleições na Madeira: PCTP/MRPP assume-se como o “partido dos pobres” e contra os “usurpadores” da autonomia, Sapo24, 21 August 2019. Retrieved 25 August 2019. Social Democratic Party (PSD), Miguel Albuquerque Liberal Initiative (IL), Nuno MornaIniciativa Liberal quer eliminar cargo de Representante da República, Sapo24, 23 August 2019. Retrieved 25 August 2019. Portuguese Labour Party (PTP), Raquel Coelho United Party of Retirees and Pensioners (PURP), Rafael MacedoEleições na Madeira: PURP promete “envolver as pessoas” e “lutar ferozmente” contra os lóbis, Sapo24, 22 August 2019. Retrieved 25 August 2019. CDS – People's Party (CDS-PP), Rui Barreto Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU), Edgar Silva Together for the People (JPP), Élvio Sousa React, Include, Recycle (RIR), Roberto VieiraEleições na Madeira: RIR estreia-se com receio de ser prejudicado por candidato ter sido do MPT, Sapo24, 22 August 2019. Retrieved 25 August 2019.

Campaign period Party slogans Party or alliance Original slogan English translation Refs PSD « Cumprir no rumo certo » "Delivering on the right track" CDS–PP « Este é o momento » "This is the moment" PS « Coragem para mudar » "Courage to change" JPP « Dar voz aos Madeirenses » "Giving voice to Madeirans" BE « A Madeira para todos » "Madeira for all" CDU « CDU, o voto que conta » "CDU, the vote that counts"

Candidates' debates 2019 Madeiran regional election debates Date Organisers Moderator(s) PSD PS CDS–PP BE CDU JPP Refs 19 Sep RTP Madeira, RTP3 Gil RosaPPPPPP

Opinion polls Graphical summary

Polling

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout Lead 2019 regional election 22 Sep 2019 55.5%39.4 5.8 35.8 5.5 1.8 1.7 1.0 1.5 0.4 0.5 6.6 3.6 UCP–CESOP 22 Sep 2019 6,000 ?37–41 5–7 34–38 3–5 1–3 1–3 - 1–2 - - - 3 Eurosondagem 15–17 Sep 2019 1,525 ?36.0 8.0 33.6 2.5 4.5 4.0 0.7 ? - ? 10.7 2.4 Intercampus 2–16 Sep 2019 1,503 ?39.0 9.3 33.1 3.4 3.9 2.2 - - - - 9.1 5.9 UCP–CESOP 14–15 Sep 2019 1,375 ?38 5 29 4 3 5 - 2 1.5 1.5 11 9 Eurosondagem 21–24 Jul 2019 1,519 ?33.3 7.1 31.9 4.2 4.0 6.9 0.5 - - - 12.0 1.4 2019 EP elections 26 May 2019 38.5 37.2 8.1 25.8 3.0 5.3 1.3 3.7 1.6 14.0 11.4 CDS-PP internal 8 Feb 2019 ? ?36.0 8.0 33.0 4.0 3.0 3.0 2.0 - - -11.0 3.0 Eurosondagem 14–17 Jan 2019 1,510 ? 34.7 8.036.9 4.8 3.6 4.0 0.9 - - - 7.1 2.2 Eurosondagem 26–28 Nov 2018 748 ?34.2 10.6 33.9 6.5 3.4 4.0 1.6 - - - 5.8 0.3 Intercampus 21–26 Nov 2018 400 ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? Eurosondagem 19–24 Jul 2018 1,018 ?36.3 7.1 35.7 6.0 4.8 3.9 1.2 - - 5.0 0.6 Eurosondagem 5–7 Feb 2018 1,018 ?38.5 5.9 33.2 6.8 3.1 4.9 1.4 - - 6.2 5.3 Eurosondagem 22–24 Oct 2017 1,017 ?36.3 6.0 33.6 6.5 4.5 4.1 2.1 - - 6.9 2.7 2017 local elections 1 Oct 2017 54.2 33.6 9.1 29.1 10.2 2.4 0.7 1.7 0.6 12.6 4.5 Eurosondagem 7–9 Jun 2017 1,010 ?40.4 5.4 30.0 4.7 4.9 5.9 1.9 - - 6.8 10.4 Eurosondagem 14–16 Mar 2017 1,017 ?38.0 8.6 27.2 4.1 5.0 6.9 1.3– - - 8.9 10.8 2015 legislative election 4 Oct 2015 48.9 37.8 6.0 20.9 6.9 3.6 10.7 1.4 1.8 1.4 13.5 16.9 2015 regional election 29 Mar 2015 49.6 44.4 13.7 11.4 10.3 5.5 3.8 10.9 30.7

Voter turnout The table below shows voter turnout throughout election day.

Turnout Time 12:00 16:00 19:00 2015 2019 ± 2015 2019 ± 2015 2019 ± Total 17.21% 20.97% 3.76 pp 37.48% 40.79% 3.31 pp 49.58% 55.50% 5.92 pp Sources

Results On election night, the centre-right PSD and national-conservative CDS said they were willing to form a coalition government.Miguel Albuquerque admite "coligação de governo" com CDS-PP , Jornal de Negócios, 22 September 2019. Retrieved 23 September 2019.

| colspan=10| |- ! rowspan="2" colspan=2 style="background-color:#E9E9E9" align=left|Parties ! rowspan="2" style="background-color:#E9E9E9" align=right|Votes ! rowspan="2" style="background-color:#E9E9E9" align=right|% ! rowspan="2" style="background-color:#E9E9E9" align=right|±pp swing ! colspan="5" style="background-color:#E9E9E9" align="center"|MPs |- style="background-color:#E9E9E9" ! style="background-color:#E9E9E9;text-align:center;"|2015 ! style="background-color:#E9E9E9;text-align:center;"| 2019 ! style="background-color:#E9E9E9" align=right|± ! style="background-color:#E9E9E9" align=right|% ! style="background-color:#E9E9E9" align=right|±

||56,449||39.42||4.9||24||21||3||44.68||6.4

||51,207||35.76||||5||19||14||40.43||29.8

||8,246||5.76||8.0||7||3||4||6.38||8.5

||7,830||5.47||4.8||5||3||2||6.38||4.3

||2,577||1.80||3.7||2||1||1||2.13||2.1

||2,489||1.74||2.1||2||0||2||0.00||4.2 |- |style="width: 10px" bgcolor=teal align="center" | |align=left|People-Animals-Nature ||2,095||1.46||||0||0||0||0.00||0.0 |- |style="width: 10px" bgcolor=yellow align="center" | |align=left|United Party of Retirees and Pensioners ||1,766||1.23||||||0||||0.00|| |- |style="width: 10px" bgcolor=LightSeaGreen align="center" | |align=left|React, Include, Recycle ||1,749||1.22||||||0||||0.00|| |- |style="width: 10px" bgcolor=#CC0033 align="center" | |align=left|Labour ||1,426||1.00||||1||0||1||0.00||2.1 |- |style="width: 10px" bgcolor=#6AD1E3 align="center" | |align=left|Alliance ||766||0.53||||||0||||0.00|| |- |style="width: 10px" bgcolor=#00ADEF align="center" | |align=left|Liberal Initiative ||762||0.53||||||0||||0.00|| |- |style="width: 10px" bgcolor=#202056 align="center" | |align=left|Chega ||619||0.43||||||0||||0.00|| |- |style="width: 10px" bgcolor=black align="center" | |align=left|Democratic Republican ||603||0.42||||||0||||0.00||

2019 Madeiran regional election

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