2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona

The 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona were held on November 6, 2018, to elect the nine U.S. representatives from the State of Arizona, one from each of the state's nine congressional districts. The elections coincided with the 2018 Arizona gubernatorial election, as well as other elections to the U.S. House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections. The 2018 general elections saw the Democratic party gain the 2nd congressional district, thus flipping the state from a 5–4 Republican advantage to a 5–4 Democratic advantage, the first time since the 2012 election in which Democrats held more House seats in Arizona than the Republicans.

Overview Statewide PartyCandidatesVotesSeats %+/– %Democratic91,179,19350.375155.56Republican91,139,25148.674144.44Green222,3780.9600.0Write-in31470.0100.0Total232,341,270100.09100.0

By district Results of the 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona by district:

DistrictDemocraticRepublicanOthersTotalResult Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %District 1 143,240 53.83% 122,784 46.14% 65 0.03% 266,089 100.0% Democratic holdDistrict 2 161,000 54.73% 133,083 45.24% 69 0.02% 294,152 100.0% Democratic gainDistrict 3 114,650 63.87% 64,868 36.13% 0 0.00% 179,518 100.0% Democratic holdDistrict 4 84,521 30.51% 188,842 68.16% 3,672 1.33% 277,035 100.0% Republican holdDistrict 5 127,027 40.58% 186,037 59.42% 0 0.00% 313,064 100.0% Republican holdDistrict 6 140,559 44.81% 173,140 55.19% 0 0.00% 313,699 100.0% Republican holdDistrict 7 113,044 85.61% 301 0.20% 19,007 14.39% 132,051 100.0% Democratic holdDistrict 8 135,569 44.53% 168,835 55.46% 13 0.01% 304,417 100.0% Republican holdDistrict 9 159,583 61.09% 101,662 38.91% 0 0.00% 261,245 100.0% Democratic holdTotal 1,179,193 50.37% 1,139,251 48.66% 22,826 0.97% 2,341,270 100.0%

District 1

The 1st district is home to the Grand Canyon and stretches along the eastern and northeastern portions of the state and includes Casa Grande, Flagstaff, and Marana. This district has a significant Native-American population, making up 25% of the population in the district. This district is home to a number of Indian reservations, including the Gila River Indian Community, Hopi Reservation, and the Navajo Nation. Incumbent Democrat Tom O'Halleran, who had represented the district since 2017, ran for re-election. He was elected with 51% of the vote in 2016, and the district had a PVI of R+2, making it one of the most competitive in the state with a PVI of R+2.

Democratic primary Candidates Nominee Tom O'Halleran, incumbent U.S. Representative

Withdrawn Miguel Olivas

Primary results

Republican primary The district was one of 36 Democratic-held House districts targeted by the National Republican Congressional Committee.

Candidates Nominee Wendy Rogers, retired air force pilot and perennial candidate

Eliminated in primary Tiffany Shedd, attorney Steve Smith, state senator

Declined T. J. Shope, state representative

Polling Poll sourceDate(s)administeredSamplesizeMargin of errorWendy RogersTiffany SheddSteveSmithOtherUndecidedGrassroots Partners (R-Smith)Grassroots Partners (R-Smith) July 15–16, 2018 393 ± 4.6% 23% 15% 27% – –Data Orbital (R-Defending Rural Arizona PAC)Data Orbital (R-Defending Rural Arizona PAC) June 28–30, 2018 450 ± 4.59% 22% 15% 10% 3% 50%

Endorsements

Primary results

Libertarian primary Candidates Zhani Doko (write-in candidate)

General election Endorsements

Polling {| class="wikitable" ! Poll source ! Date(s)administered ! Samplesize ! Margin oferror ! style="width:100px;"| TomO'Halleran (D) ! style="width:100px;"| WendyRogers (R) ! Other ! Undecided |- |0ptimus/DDHQOptimus/DDHQ | align=center| October 31 – November 1, 2018 | align=center| 756 | align=center| ± 3.6% | align=center| 48% | align=center| 45% | align=center| 1% | align=center| 6% |- |American Viewpoint (R)American Viewpoint (R) | align=center| October 16–18, 2018 | align=center| 400 | align=center| ± 4.9% | align=center| 46% | align=center| 46% | align=center| – | align=center| 5% |- |Go Right Strategies (R-Rogers)Go Right Strategies (R-Rogers) | align=center| October 9–10, 2018 | align=center| 943 | align=center| ± 3.0% | align=center| 38% | align=center| 44% | align=center| – | align=center| 18% |- |Go Right Strategies (R-Rogers)Go Right Strategies (R-Rogers) | align=center| September 27–28, 2018 | align=center| 738 | align=center| ± 4.0% | align=center| 36% | align=center| 39% | align=center| – | align=center| 24%

Predictions SourceRankingAs of The Cook Political ReportNovember 5, 2018 Inside ElectionsNovember 5, 2018 Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 5, 2018RCPNovember 5, 2018Daily KosNovember 5, 2018538November 7, 2018CNNOctober 31, 2018Fox NewsSeptember 21, 2018PoliticoNovember 2, 2018

Results

District 2

The 2nd district is based in the southeastern corner of Arizona and includes Cochise County and parts of suburban Tucson. Incumbent Republican Martha McSally, who had represented the district since 2015, did not run for re-election, instead running for the U.S. Senate. She was re-elected with 57% of the vote in 2016, and the district had a PVI of R+1.

Republican primary Candidates Nominee Lea Márquez Peterson, president of the Tucson Hispanic Chamber of Commerce

Eliminated in primary Brandon Martin, Army instructor Danny Morales, former Douglas city councilman Casey Welch

Withdrew Martha McSally, incumbent U.S. Representative (ran for U.S. Senate) Marilyn Wiles

Declined J. Christopher Ackerley, former state representative Steve Christy, Pima County Supervisor Todd Clodfelter, state representative David Gowan, former state representative Gail Griffin, former state representative Shelley Kais, candidate for state senate in 2016 Ally Miller, Pima County Supervisor Ethan Orr, former state representative

Primary results

Democratic primary This district was one of 80 Republican-held House districts targeted by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

Candidates Nominee Ann Kirkpatrick, former U.S. Representative for Arizona's 1st District and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2016

Eliminated in primary Matt Heinz, former state representative, candidate for 8th district in 2012 and nominee for this seat in 2016 Billy Kovacs, operations manager of Hotel Congress Mary Matiella, former assistant secretary of the Army Barbara Sherry Bruce Wheeler, former state representative Yahya Yuksel

Withdrawn Charlie Verdin, small businessman

Declined Brian Bickel, candidate for Pima County Supervisor in 2016 Randall Friese, state representative Lou Jordan, retired U.S. Army colonel Jeff Latas, retired air force fighter pilot and candidate for AZ-08 in 2006 Joshua Polacheck, foreign service officer Victoria Steele, former state representative and candidate for this seat in 2016

Endorsements

Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror RandyFriese MattHeinz AnnKirkpatrick BillyKovacs MaryMatiella BruceWheeler Other UndecidedFM3 Research (D-Heinz)FM3 Research (D-Heinz) August 1–2, 2018 402 ± 4.9% – 31% 26% – – – 13% 29%FM3 Research (D-Heinz)FM3 Research (D-Heinz) April 29 – May 3, 2018 400 ± 4.9% – 27% 23% 4% 6% 4% – 36%Public Policy Polling (D-Heinz)Public Policy Polling (D-Heinz) May 5–7, 2017 392 ± 5.0% 6% 40% 30% – – – – 24%

Primary results

General election Endorsements

Debates Complete video of debate, October 11, 2018

Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror LeaMarquez-Peterson (R) AnnKirkpatrick (D) UndecidedNYT Upshot/Siena CollegeNYT Upshot/Siena College September 26 – October 1, 2018 502 ± 4.5% 39% 50% 11%Public Policy Polling (D-Heinz)Public Policy Polling (D-Heinz) February 8–10, 2018 841 ± 3.4% 34% 43% 23%

With Heinz {| class="wikitable" ! Poll source ! Date(s)administered ! Samplesize ! Margin oferror ! style="width:80px;"| LeaMarquez-Peterson (R) ! style="width:80px;"| MattHeinz (D) ! Undecided |- |Public Policy Polling (D-Heinz) | align=center| February 8–10, 2018 | align=center| 841 | align=center| ± 3.4% | align=center| 31% | align=center| 45% | align=center| 24%

{| class="wikitable" ! Poll source ! Date(s)administered ! Samplesize ! Margin oferror ! style="width:80px;"| MarthaMcSally (R) ! style="width:80px;"| MattHeinz (D) ! Undecided |- |Public Policy Polling (D-Heinz)Public Policy Polling (D-Heinz) | align=center| May 5–7, 2017 | align=center| 944 | align=center| ± N/A | align=center| 44% | align=center| 48% | align=center| 8%

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror MarthaMcSally (R) AnnKirkpatrick (D) UndecidedPublic Policy Polling (D)Public Policy Polling (D) October 6–8, 2017 714 ± 3.7% 44% 44% —Public Policy Polling (D-Heinz) May 5–7, 2017 944 ± N/A 44% 48% 8%

Predictions SourceRankingAs of The Cook Political ReportNovember 5, 2018 Inside ElectionsNovember 5, 2018 Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 5, 2018RCPNovember 5, 2018Daily KosNovember 5, 2018538November 7, 2018CNNOctober 31, 2018Fox NewsSeptember 21, 2018PoliticoNovember 2, 2018

Results

District 3

The third district is based in Tucson and stretches along the southern border of Arizona including Yuma, rural portions of Maricopa County such as Gila Bend, and the western suburbs of Phoenix including Avondale, Buckeye, Goodyear, and parts of Litchfield Park. has represented this district since 2002, and ran unopposed in 2016. Incumbent Democrat Raúl Grijalva, who had represented the district since 2003, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 99% of the vote in 2016, and the district had a PVI of D+13.

Democratic primary Candidates Nominee Raúl Grijalva, incumbent U.S. Representative

Eliminated in primary Joshua Garcia (write-in candidate)

Endorsements

Primary results

Republican primary Candidates Nominee J. Nicholas Pierson, financial planner and community organizer

Eliminated in primary Sergio Arellano, veteran Edna San Miguel, schoolteacher

Withdrawn Bill Abatecola, businessman (endorsed Arellano)

Primary results

General election Predictions SourceRankingAs of The Cook Political ReportNovember 5, 2018 Inside ElectionsNovember 5, 2018 Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 5, 2018RCPNovember 5, 2018Daily KosNovember 5, 2018538November 7, 2018CNNOctober 31, 2018Fox NewsSeptember 21, 2018PoliticoNovember 2, 2018

Endorsements

Results

District 4

The fourth district takes up most of rural northwestern and western Arizona and includes Kingman, Lake Havasu City, Prescott, and San Tan Valley. Incumbent Republican Paul Gosar, who had represented the district since 2011, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 71% of the vote in 2016, and the district had a PVI of R+21, making it the most Republican district in Arizona.

Republican primary Candidates Nominee Paul Gosar, incumbent U.S. Representative

Primary results

Democratic primary Candidates Nominee David Brill, Manager of Primary Care services for the Northern Arizona Veterans Administration

Eliminated in primary Delina Disanto, finance director and registered nurse Ana Maria Perez (write-in candidate)

Endorsements

Primary results

Green primary Candidates Nominee Haryaksha Gregor Knauer

Primary results

General election Predictions SourceRankingAs of The Cook Political ReportNovember 5, 2018 Inside ElectionsNovember 5, 2018 Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 5, 2018RCPNovember 5, 2018Daily KosNovember 5, 2018538November 7, 2018CNNOctober 31, 2018Fox NewsSeptember 21, 2018PoliticoNovember 2, 2018

Campaign