The 2019 Kentucky gubernatorial election took place on November 5, 2019, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Kentucky. The Democratic nominee, Andy Beshear, defeated Republican incumbent governor Matt Bevin. It was the closest gubernatorial election by votes since 1899, and was the closest race of the 2019 gubernatorial election cycle. This was the only statewide victory in 2019 for Democrats in Kentucky.
Beshear won by 0.37 percentage points, receiving 49.20% of the vote to Bevin's 48.83%. Bevin won 97 counties, while Beshear won 23 counties. Beshear also carried only two of the state's six congressional districts, but those districts were the state's two most urbanized, the Louisville-based 3rd and the Lexington-based 6th.J. Miles Coleman. "... Beshear carried #KY03 (Louisville) by 37% & #KY06 (metro Lexington) by 14%. He only won two CDs, but his districts also had the highest turnout. Beshear also kept #KY04 (Cincy suburbs) close," Twitter.
Beshear won with overwhelming support in the major population hubs of Louisville and Lexington and their suburbs, as well as major vote swings in the Republican-leaning Cincinnati suburbs. Beshear was also aided by Bevin's lackluster performance in counties that had previously been swinging heavily towards Republicans, particularly the coal country of Eastern Kentucky, where Beshear won multiple counties that overwhelmingly voted Republican in 2016. Voter turnout was high across the state compared to past Kentucky elections, with a statewide turnout of about 42%. Fayette County (Lexington) saw a 20% increase in voter turnout, and Beshear received over twice as many votes in the county than the 2015 Democratic nominee for governor, Jack Conway. Unusually high turnout was seen as a major factor in Beshear's win.
Beshear's win coincided with Democratic momentum nationwide in elections in 2017, 2018, and 2019, following the election of Donald Trump in 2016. However, Republicans won all other statewide races in Kentucky in 2019, including the attorney general and secretary of state offices which Democrats had held going into the election. , this is the last time a Republican governor in any state lost reelection, and the only Kentucky gubernatorial election since 2007 where the incumbent was defeated.
Bevin conceded on November 14, after a recanvass took place that day that did not change the vote count. Libertarian John Hicks also qualified for the ballot and received 2% of the vote. Statewide turnout was just over 42%, much higher than for the 2015 gubernatorial election.
Background Major-party primary elections occurred on May 21, 2019. Incumbent Republican governor Matt Bevin was renominated by the Republican Party. Kentucky Attorney General Andy Beshear won the Democratic nomination with 37.9% of the vote in a three-way contest, in which due to his father he had the greatest name recognition.
Bevin announced on January 25, 2019, that he would run for a second term, choosing State Senator Ralph Alvarado as his running mate over incumbent lieutenant governor Jenean Hampton. No Republican governor of Kentucky has ever been elected to more than one term, even after the state's constitutional prohibition of governors serving consecutive terms was repealed in 1992. The only Republican before Bevin to run for reelection, Ernie Fletcher, was defeated by Democrat Steve Beshear in 2007 (Steve Beshear is the father of Bevin's Democratic challenger, Andy). Bevin was the second Republican governor of Kentucky in the last 50 years. Andy Beshear was the first governor of Kentucky to be a direct relative of a former governor.
Beshear had the support of 2020 Senate candidate Amy McGrath, his father and former governor Steve Beshear, former governor Paul Patton, and representative and primary challenger Rocky Adkins, all well-known Democrats in the state. Bevin had the support of President Donald Trump, who remained relatively popular in the state, particularly in rural areas. Trump and US senator Rand Paul held a rally in support of Bevin and Republican Attorney General nominee Daniel Cameron the day before the election. Many considered the decisive factor in this election whether voters would vote based on local issues, as Bevin and his policies were deeply unpopular, or as a referendum on Trump, with whom Bevin closely aligned. The former would be more favorable for Democrats, the latter for Republicans.
Bevin was the least popular governor in the United States, with a 33% approval rating in April 2019.
Republican primary Candidates Nominated Matt Bevin, incumbent governor of Kentucky Running mate: Ralph Alvarado, state senator
Eliminated in primary Robert Goforth, state representative Running mate: Mike Hogan, county attorney of Lawrence County Ike Lawrence, candidate for mayor of Lexington in 2018 Running mate: James Anthony Rose, semi-retired William Woods, candidate for the 66th district in the Kentucky House of Representatives in 2012 Running mate: Justin Miller, mathematics and middle grades educator
Declined James Comer, incumbent U.S. representative and candidate for governor of Kentucky in 2015
Endorsements
Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error MattBevin RobertGoforth IkeLawrence WilliamWoods UndecidedCygnalCygnal May 10–12, 2019 600 ± 4.0% 56% 18% 2% 1% 23%
Results
Democratic primary Candidates Nominated Andy Beshear, Attorney General of Kentucky and son of former governor Steve Beshear Running mate: Jacqueline Coleman, founder and president of Lead Kentucky, a non-profit organization focused on education policy reform
Eliminated in primary Rocky Adkins, minority leader of the Kentucky House of Representatives Running mate: Stephanie Horne, former member of the Jefferson County Board of Education for the 3rd district Adam Edelen, former Auditor of Public Accounts of Kentucky Running mate: Gill Holland, filmmaker and urban developer Geoff Young, perennial candidate, retired engineer, candidate for governor of Kentucky in 2015, candidate for Kentucky's 6th congressional district in 2014, 2016 and 2018, and Green Party nominee for the 45th district in the Kentucky House of Representatives in 2012 Running mate: Joshua N. French
Declined Alison Lundergan Grimes, Secretary of State of Kentucky and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2014 Amy McGrath, retired U.S. Marine and Democratic nominee for Kentucky's 6th congressional district in 2018 (ran for U.S. Senate against incumbent Mitch McConnell) Attica Scott, state representative and former Louisville city councilwoman
Endorsements
Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error RockyAdkins AndyBeshear AdamEdelen UndecidedGarin-Hart-Yang Research (D)Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D) April 15–18, 2019 601 ± 4.0% 17% 44% 16% 23%ALG Research (D) April 11–15, 2019 500 – 22% 43% 23% –Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D)Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D) February 4–7, 2019 603 ± 4.0% 17% 55% 7% 21%
Results
Other candidates Libertarian Convention The Libertarian Party of Kentucky is currently recognized as a "political organization" under state law, a status that grants the party ballot access, but denies it a state-operated primary. Libertarian candidates were nominated at the party's nominating convention, held in March 2019.
Nominated John Hicks, IT consultant Running mate: Ann Cormican, factory worker
Write-in Declared Amy Husk (Socialist Workers Party), medical assistant and trade unionist Running mate: Samir Hazboun, journalist Blackii Effing Whyte
General election
Fundraising Campaign finance reports as of November 5, 2019CandidateRaisedSpentCash on handAndy Beshear (D)$5,474,916$5,471,092$3,824Matt Bevin (R)$5,263,345$5,263,345$0Source: Kentucky Registry of Election Finance
Predictions SourceRankingAs ofThe Cook Political ReportOctober 15, 2019Inside ElectionsNovember 8, 2019Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 8, 2019
Debates Dates Location Bevin Beshear Hicks LinkJuly 17, 2019LouisvilleParticipantParticipantNot invited Full debate – Kentucky Farm BureauOctober 3, 2019PaducahParticipantParticipantNot invited Full debate – Courier-JournalOctober 15, 2019LexingtonParticipantParticipantNot invited Full debate – Courier-JournalOctober 26, 2019LouisvilleParticipantParticipantNot invited Full debate – WLKYOctober 29, 2019Highland HeightsParticipantParticipantNot invited Full debate – WLWT
Endorsements
Polling
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error MattBevin (R) AndyBeshear (D) JohnHicks (L) UndecidedNBC News/MaristNBC News/Marist October 30 – November 3, 2019 564 (LV) ± 5.2% 47% 47% 2% 4%The Trafalgar Group (R)The Trafalgar Group (R) October 29 – November 2, 2019 1,117 (LV) ± 3.0% 52% 47% 1% 0%Targoz Market Research (D)Targoz Market Research (D) October 13–20, 2019 401 (LV) ± 4.2% 36% 55% 4% 6%Mason-DixonMason-Dixon October 10–13, 2019 625 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 46% 1% 7%Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D)Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D) August 19–22, 2019 501 (LV) ± 4.4% 39% 48% 6% 7%Clarity Campaign Labs (D)Clarity Campaign Labs (D) August 12–13, 2019 792 (LV) ± 3.3% 39% 48% 5% 4%Gravis Marketing (R)Gravis Marketing (R) June 11–12, 2019 741 (LV) ± 3.6% 48% 42% – 10%Lake Research Partners (D)Lake Research Partners (D) June 4–11, 2019 500 (RV) ± 4% 36%51% – –Mason-DixonMason-Dixon December 12–15, 2018 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 40% 48% – 12%
with Rocky Adkins Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error MattBevin (R) RockyAdkins (D) UndecidedMason-Dixon December 12–15, 2018 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 41% 42% 17%
with Alison Lundergan Grimes Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error MattBevin (R) Grimes (D) UndecidedMason-Dixon December 12–15, 2018 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 47% 46% 7%
with generic Democrat Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error MattBevin (R) GenericDemocrat UndecidedPublic Policy Polling (D)Public Policy Polling (D) May 6–7, 2019 676 ± 3.8% 39% 49% 11%
Results
By congressional district Beshear won despite carrying only two of the state's six congressional districts. He defeated Bevin in the 3rd and 6th districts, which encompass Kentucky's two urban centers, Louisville and Lexington, and their close-in suburbs. Bevin won the state's other urbanized district, the Northern Kentucky-based 4th, and he won handily in the more rural and less populated 1st, 2nd, and 5th districts. District PVI AndyBeshear MattBevin Incumbentrepresentative R+23 39%59%James ComerR+19 44%54%Brett GuthrieD+668% 31%John Yarmuth R+18 45%52%Thomas Massie R+31 37%61%Hal RogersR+956% 42%Andy Barr
By county