The Coalition won the 2016 federal election with a one-seat majority 76 of 150 lower house seats. Labor holds 69 seats while crossbenchers hold the remaining five.

Classification of seats as marginal, fairly safe or safe is applied by the independent Australian Electoral Commission using the following definition: "Where a winning party receives less than 56% of the vote, the seat is classified as 'marginal', 56–60% is classified as 'fairly safe' and more than 60% is considered 'safe'."Division Classifications, Virtual Tally Room 2016, Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 21 August 2016.

Pendulum The Mackerras pendulum was devised by the Australian psephologist Malcolm Mackerras as a way of predicting the outcome of an election contested between two major parties in a Westminster style lower house legislature such as the Australian House of Representatives, which is composed of single-member electorates and which uses a preferential voting system such as a Condorcet method or IRV.

The pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament for the government, the opposition and the crossbenches according to the percentage point margin they are held by on a two party preferred basis. This is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted.

Government seats (76)Marginal (28) Capricornia (Qld) Michelle Landry LNP 0.63 Forde (Qld) Bert van Manen LNP 0.63 Gilmore (NSW) Ann Sudmalis LIB 0.73 Flynn (Qld) Ken O'Dowd LNP 1.04 Robertson (NSW) Lucy Wicks LIB 1.14 Chisholm (Vic) Julia Banks LIB 1.24 Dunkley (Vic) Chris Crewther LIB 1.43 Banks (NSW) David Coleman LIB 1.44 La Trobe (Vic) Jason Wood LIB 1.46 Dickson (Qld) Peter Dutton LNP 1.60 Petrie (Qld) Luke Howarth LNP 1.65 Grey (SA) Rowan Ramsey LIB 1.95 v NXT Hasluck (WA) Ken Wyatt LIB 2.05 Page (NSW) Kevin Hogan NAT 2.30 Corangamite (Vic) Sarah Henderson LIB 3.13 Dawson (Qld) George Christensen LNP 3.34 Bonner (Qld) Ross Vasta LNP 3.39 Boothby (SA) Nicolle Flint LIB 3.50 Swan (WA) Steve Irons LIB 3.59 Pearce (WA) Christian Porter LIB 3.63 Leichhardt (Qld) Warren Entsch LNP 3.95 Cowper (NSW) Luke Hartsuyker NAT 4.56 v IND Reid (NSW) Craig Laundy LIB 4.69 Barker (SA) Tony Pasin LIB 4.74 v NXT Murray (Vic) Damian Drum NAT 5.13 v LIB Deakin (Vic) Michael Sukkar LIB 5.68 Sturt (SA) Christopher Pyne LIB 5.89 Brisbane (Qld) Trevor Evans LNP 5.92Fairly safe (17) McMillan (Vic) Russell Broadbent LIB 6.03 Casey (Vic) Tony Smith LIB 6.06 Stirling (WA) Michael Keenan LIB 6.12 Canning (WA) Andrew Hastie LIB 6.79 Bowman (Qld) Andrew Laming LNP 7.07 Flinders (Vic) Greg Hunt LIB 7.77 Higgins (Vic) Kelly O'Dwyer LIB 7.99 v GRN Wide Bay (Qld) Llew O'Brien LNP 8.14 Hinkler (Qld) Keith Pitt LNP 8.42 New England (NSW) Barnaby Joyce NAT 8.52 v IND Aston (Vic) Alan Tudge LIB 8.59 Wannon (Vic) Dan Tehan LIB 8.96 Fisher (Qld) Andrew Wallace LNP 9.06 Ryan (Qld) Jane Prentice LNP 9.09 Hughes (NSW) Craig Kelly LIB 9.33 Wright (Qld) Scott Buchholz LNP 9.62 Bennelong (NSW) John Alexander LIB 9.72Safe (31) Hume (NSW) Angus Taylor LIB 10.18 Menzies (Vic) Kevin Andrews LIB 10.56 Fairfax (Qld) Ted O'Brien LNP 10.89 Moore (WA) Ian Goodenough LIB 11.02 Fadden (Qld) Stuart Robert LNP 11.05 Durack (WA) Melissa Price LIB 11.06 Tangney (WA) Ben Morton LIB 11.07 Warringah (NSW) Tony Abbott LIB 11.55 v GRN Lyne (NSW) David Gillespie NAT 11.63 McPherson (Qld) Karen Andrews LNP 11.64 Calare (NSW) Andrew Gee NAT 11.81 Forrest (WA) Nola Marino LIB 12.56 Goldstein (Vic) Tim Wilson LIB 12.68 Kooyong (Vic) Josh Frydenberg LIB 13.34 North Sydney (NSW) Trent Zimmerman LIB 13.61 Moncrieff (Qld) Steven Ciobo LNP 14.94 O'Connor (WA) Rick Wilson LIB 15.04 Parkes (NSW) Mark Coulton NAT 15.10 Groom (Qld) John McVeigh LNP 15.31 Cook (NSW) Scott Morrison LIB 15.39 Mackellar (NSW) Jason Falinski LIB 15.74 Maranoa (Qld) David Littleproud LNP 15.86 v ONP Riverina (NSW) Michael McCormack NAT 16.44 Berowra (NSW) Julian Leeser LIB 16.45 Wentworth (NSW) Malcolm Turnbull LIB 17.75 Mitchell (NSW) Alex Hawke LIB 17.82 Gippsland (Vic) Darren Chester NAT 18.43 Farrer (NSW) Sussan Ley LIB 20.53 Curtin (WA) Julie Bishop LIB 20.70 Bradfield (NSW) Paul Fletcher LIB 21.04 Mallee (Vic) Andrew Broad NAT 21.32 Opposition seats (69)Marginal (23) Herbert (Qld) Cathy O'Toole ALP 0.02 Hindmarsh (SA) Steve Georganas ALP 0.58 Cowan (WA) Anne Aly ALP 0.68 Longman (Qld) Susan Lamb ALP 0.79 Batman (Vic) David Feeney ALP 1.03 v GRN Lindsay (NSW) Emma Husar ALP 1.38 Melbourne Ports (Vic) Michael Danby ALP 1.38 Griffith (Qld) Terri Butler ALP 1.60 Macquarie (NSW) Susan Templeman ALP 2.19 Braddon (Tas) Justine Keay ALP 2.20 Lyons (Tas) Brian Mitchell ALP 2.31 Eden-Monaro (NSW) Mike Kelly ALP 2.93 Perth (WA) Tim Hammond ALP 3.33 Bendigo (Vic) Lisa Chesters ALP 3.74 Richmond (NSW) Justine Elliot ALP 3.96 Moreton (Qld) Graham Perrett ALP 4.02 Bruce (Vic) Julian Hill ALP 4.08 Adelaide (SA) Kate Ellis ALP 4.65 Jagajaga (Vic) Jenny Macklin ALP 4.67 Dobell (NSW) Emma McBride ALP 4.81 Wills (Vic) Peter Khalil ALP 4.88 v GRN Lilley (Qld) Wayne Swan ALP 5.32 Isaacs (Vic) Mark Dreyfus ALP 5.73Fairly safe (20) Solomon (NT) Luke Gosling ALP 6.00 Bass (Tas) Ross Hart ALP 6.09 Greenway (NSW) Michelle Rowland ALP 6.31 Burt (WA) Matt Keogh ALP 7.11 Ballarat (Vic) Catherine King ALP 7.32 Hotham (Vic) Clare O'Neil ALP 7.48 Fremantle (WA) Josh Wilson ALP 7.52 Parramatta (NSW) Julie Owens ALP 7.67 McEwen (Vic) Rob Mitchell ALP 7.85 Werriwa (NSW) Anne Stanley ALP 8.20 Barton (NSW) Linda Burney ALP 8.30 Macarthur (NSW) Mike Freelander ALP 8.33 Lingiari (NT) Warren Snowdon ALP 8.42 Canberra (ACT) Gai Brodtmann ALP 8.46 Kingsford Smith (NSW) Matt Thistlethwaite ALP 8.57 Blair (Qld) Shayne Neumann ALP 8.88 Oxley (Qld) Milton Dick ALP 9.08 Makin (SA) Tony Zappia ALP 9.65 Shortland (NSW) Pat Conroy ALP 9.94 Corio (Vic) Richard Marles ALP 9.99Safe (26) Franklin (Tas) Julie Collins ALP 10.72 Paterson (NSW) Meryl Swanson ALP 10.74 Wakefield (SA) Nick Champion ALP 10.97 Rankin (Qld) Jim Chalmers ALP 11.30 Brand (WA) Madeleine King ALP 11.43 McMahon (NSW) Chris Bowen ALP 12.11 Maribyrnong (Vic) Bill Shorten ALP 12.31 Hunter (NSW) Joel Fitzgibbon ALP 12.46 Cunningham (NSW) Sharon Bird ALP 13.32 Lalor (Vic) Joanne Ryan ALP 13.44 Whitlam (NSW) Stephen Jones ALP 13.72 Newcastle (NSW) Sharon Claydon ALP 13.84 Fenner (ACT) Andrew Leigh ALP 13.89 Holt (Vic) Anthony Byrne ALP 14.17 Port Adelaide (SA) Mark Butler ALP 14.86 v NXT Sydney (NSW) Tanya Plibersek ALP 15.31 Grayndler (NSW) Anthony Albanese ALP 15.82 v GRN Kingston (SA) Amanda Rishworth ALP 17.05 Scullin (Vic) Andrew Giles ALP 17.28 Fowler (NSW) Chris Hayes ALP 17.49 Watson (NSW) Tony Burke ALP 17.58 Calwell (Vic) Maria Vamvakinou ALP 17.87 Gellibrand (Vic) Tim Watts ALP 18.23 Chifley (NSW) Ed Husic ALP 19.19 Gorton (Vic) Brendan O'Connor ALP 19.45 Blaxland (NSW) Jason Clare ALP 19.48Crossbench seats (5) Indi (Vic) Cathy McGowan IND 4.83 v LIB Mayo (SA) Rebekha Sharkie NXT 4.97 v LIB Kennedy (Qld) Bob Katter KAP 11.12 v LNP Denison (Tas) Andrew Wilkie IND 17.78 v ALP Melbourne (Vic) Adam Bandt GRN 18.48 v LIB

References