A second referendum (commonly referred to as indyref2) on Scotland becoming independent of the United Kingdom (UK) has been proposed by the Scottish Government. An independence referendum was first held on 18 September 2014, with 55% voting "No" to independence. The Scottish Government stated in its white paper for independence that voting Yes was a "once in a generation opportunity to follow a different path, and choose a new and better direction for our nation". Following the "No" vote, the cross party Smith Commission proposed areas that could be devolved to the Scottish Parliament; this led to the passing of the Scotland Act 2016, formalising new devolved policy areas in time for the 2016 Scottish Parliament election campaign.

The pro-independence Scottish National Party (SNP) said before the 2016 election that a second independence referendum should be held if there was a material change of circumstances, such as the UK leaving the European Union. The SNP formed a minority government following the election. The "Leave" side won the Brexit referendum in June 2016. 62% of votes in Scotland were opposed to Brexit. In 2017, then First Minister Nicola Sturgeon gained approval of the Scottish Parliament to seek a "Section 30 Order" under the Scotland Act 1998 to hold an independence referendum "when the shape of the UK's Brexit deal will become clear". No Prime Minister to date has transferred power under Section 30.

In January 2021, the SNP stated that, if pro-independence parties won a majority in the 2021 Scottish parliament election, the Scottish Government would introduce a bill for an independence referendum. The SNP and the Scottish Green Party (who also support independence) won a majority of seats in the election, and entered government together under the Bute House Agreement. In June 2022, Sturgeon announced plans to hold a referendum on 19 October 2023. Sturgeon's request to hold a referendum was rejected in July 2022. Debate surrounding a proposed second referendum continued under the leadership of former First Minister Humza Yousaf and the ongoing leadership of incumbent First Minister John Swinney, who has promised to deliver independence if re-elected in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election. The question of whether a referendum can take place without the UK government's agreement was referred to the UK Supreme Court, which ruled in November 2022 that an independence referendum is outside the competence of the Scottish Parliament.

History 2014

2014 independence referendum

The referendum on Scottish independence held on 18 September 2014 saw Scotland vote to remain part of the United Kingdom (UK), with 55% voting against the proposal for Scotland to become an independent country and 45% voting in favour.

Uncertainty over Scotland's European Union (EU) membership was a topic in the run-up to the referendum vote, as unionists argued that Scotland would not automatically become an EU member and would instead have to apply for that status. The UK Government and some mainstream political parties argued that remaining in the UK was the only way to ensure that Scotland would remain part of the EU. Independence supporters pointed out that the UK Prime Minister David Cameron had already pledged to hold an "in-out" referendum on UK membership of the EU if the Conservatives won the next UK general election.

Other issues, such as the economy, played a large part in the debate. Financial groups, such as the Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds Banking Group, were reported to be considering moving their registered offices to London, as a result of a European law stating that banks should have their head offices in the same member state as its registered office, as well as implying that these offices should be in the location where they conduct most of their activity – which would be the remainder of the UK in the event of Scottish independence.

The Scottish Government's White Paper on independence stated that "It is the view of the current Scottish Government that a referendum is a once-in-a-generation opportunity",Scottish Government (November 2013) "Scotland's Future". Q&A, ¶ 557. a point reiterated a few days before the vote by the SNP's then-leader, Alex Salmond, noting the eighteen-year gap between the devolution referendums held in 1979 and in 1997 as an example of the generational opportunity. The UK Government also portrayed the independence referendum as once-in-a-generationAitken, Keith (15 October 2012) "Terms of 'once in a generation' Scottish independence referendum agreed". Public Finance. CIPFA. and Sturgeon described it as a "once in a lifetime opportunity". Three months later, Salmond reversed the position, highlighting the UK's EU referendum as a factor.Kinder, Tabatha (20 December 2014) "'A second Scottish independence referendum is on the horizon', says Alex Salmond". International Business Times.

Smith Commission Following the referendum result, the cross-party Smith Commission stated that: "nothing in this report prevents Scotland becoming an independent country in the future should the people of Scotland so choose." The Commission established specific policy areas that were agreed between all of Scotland's mainstream political parties that should be devolved. This covered areas such as some aspects of taxation and welfare provision.

2015

2015 UK general election The 2015 general election was held on 7 May, almost eight months after the independence referendum. In their manifesto, the SNP said the following in response to the Conservatives' manifesto pledge promising a referendum on EU membership by the end of 2017 if elected:

The European Union is far from perfect, however, we believe that it is overwhelmingly in Scotland's interests for us to remain a member, engaging with the institutions as fully as we can, and to argue for reform from within. We will oppose UK withdrawal from the EU and will propose that, in any future referendum, there should be a double majority requirement. Each of the four constituent nations of the UK would have to vote for withdrawal before the UK as a whole could leave the European Union.

The SNP went on to win 56 of the 59 Scottish seats that were contested in an unprecedented landslide winning 50% of the national vote and left just three unionist MPs in Scotland; Labour saw their worst result in Scotland since 1918, the Liberal Democrats fell to their lowest level since 1970 and the Conservatives received their lowest vote share in Scotland since 1865.

In terms of the overall election result, the Conservatives led by David Cameron won an unexpected overall majority, their first since 1992. Later that year the Westminster parliament legislated for the holding of a UK-wide referendum on EU membership, which would be held following a renegotiation of the UK's membership terms.

2016

Scotland Act 2016 The Scotland Act 2016, which was mostly influenced by the findings of the Smith Commission, gained royal assent on 23 March 2016. This act devolved new policy areas to the Scottish Parliament following the independence referendum.

2016 Scottish Parliament election During the SNP Spring Conference in March, Sturgeon announced a "Summer Independence Initiative" to build support for Independence. Elections to the Scottish Parliament took place on 5 May 2016, seven weeks before the holding of the EU Referendum. In their manifesto for the 2016 Scottish election, the SNP stipulated conditions under which they would seek a second independence referendum:SNP 2016 manifesto, p. 23

The SNP were re-elected in the 2016 election, winning 63 seats in the 129-seat chamber, although the result meant that they no longer held an overall majority. The pro-independence Scottish Greens won 6 seats, meaning that pro-independence MSPs maintained a majority.

The Greens' manifesto stipulated that a second referendum should be held if there was a public demand for one, rather than as a result of "calculations of party political advantage". The party specified that their preferred method of showing support for a referendum was via a public petition, although their manifesto did not clarify how many signatories there would have to be to receive their support:Scottish Green 2016 manifesto, p. 36

European Union membership referendum

In the European Union membership referendum held on 23 June 2016, 52% of voters across the whole UK voted to leave the European Union, with 48% voting to remain; majorities in England and Wales were in favour of leaving the EU, with majorities in Scotland (62%), Northern Ireland and Gibraltar to remain a member of the EU. All thirty-two council areas in Scotland voted by a majority for the UK to remain a member of the EU.

Before the referendum, leading figures with a range of opinions regarding Scottish independence suggested that in the event the UK as a whole voted to leave the EU but Scotland as a whole voted to remain, a second independence referendum might be precipitated. Former Labour Scottish First Minister Henry McLeish asserted that he would support Scottish independence under such circumstances.

A report for the European Parliament regarding the impact of the United Kingdom's exit from the EU on devolution suggested that "there now seems to be a consensus that, were Scotland to become independent by legal means, it could join the [European] Union", something which had been questioned before the 2014 referendum.

Independence referendum planning following Leave Vote

In response to the result, on 24 June 2016, the Scottish Government said officials would begin planning for a second referendum on independence. Sturgeon said it was "clear that the people of Scotland see their future as part of the European Union" and that Scotland had "spoken decisively" with a "strong, unequivocal" vote to remain in the European Union. Sturgeon said it was "democratically unacceptable" that Scotland could be taken out of the EU "against its will".

Scottish Secretary David Mundell stated, on 26 June 2016, that "if the people of Scotland ultimately determine that they want to have another [independence] referendum there will be one", and added "Could there be another referendum? The answer to that question is yes. Should there be another referendum? I believe the answer to that question is no."

On 13 October 2016, Sturgeon announced that an Independence Referendum Bill would be published for consultation the following week.

2017

Triggering of Article 50

In February 2017, the Scottish Parliament voted 90 to 34 to oppose the UK leaving the EU and to oppose invoking Article 50 in a non-binding vote.Scottish parliament rejects Brexit in non-binding vote, DW, 7 February 2017 On 13 March 2017, Sturgeon announced she would seek Scottish Parliament approval to negotiate with the UK Government for a Section 30 order enabling a legally binding second independence referendum.

On 16 March 2017, ahead of the scheduled debate, Theresa May responded by broadcasting a message where she said that "now is not the time" for a second referendum on Scottish independence, as it would be unclear what the people of Scotland would be voting for. Ruth Davidson later appeared at a press conference in Edinburgh and stated her position that "we will maintain that it should not take place when there is no clear public and political consent for it to happen".

On 28 March 2017, the Scottish Parliament voted 69–59 on Motion S5M-04710, in favour of holding a second referendum on Scottish independence. Prior to the passage of the motion, a Green Party amendment was passed, by the same margin, that seeks to enable 16 and 17 year-olds and EU citizens the opportunity to vote in a referendum.

2017 UK general election