2016 United States presidential election in New Mexico

The 2016 United States presidential election in New Mexico was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. New Mexico voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. New Mexico has five electoral votes in the Electoral College.

Clinton won the state of New Mexico with a plurality, by a margin of 8.2 percentage points. The state had long been considered leaning Democratic, or a state Clinton would win, due to its large population of Hispanic/Latino and Native American voters. Former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson achieved 9% in his home state, his best performance of any state, and the Libertarian Party's best performance in any single state since Ed Clark received 11.66% of the vote in Alaska in 1980. Johnson's result was also the best result for a third party or independent candidate in New Mexico since Ross Perot's campaign in 1992.

This is the third time since 1912, when New Mexico attained statehood, that the state voted for a candidate who did not win the Electoral College, the other instances being 1976 and 2000. However, in this election and in 2000, the state did vote for the winner of the popular vote. This also marked the second of only three times since its statehood in 1912 that a non-incumbent Republican won the White House without carrying New Mexico (along with 2000 and 2024). Trump became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Los Alamos County since Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1952, as well as the first to do so without carrying Sandoval County since Richard Nixon in 1968.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Four candidates appeared on the Democratic Party (United States) presidential primary ballot: Bernie Sanders Hillary Clinton Rocky De La Fuente Martin O'Malley (withdrawn)

Republican primary

Twelve candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot: Jeb Bush (withdrawn) Ben Carson (withdrawn) Chris Christie (withdrawn) Ted Cruz (withdrawn) Carly Fiorina (withdrawn) Jim Gilmore (withdrawn) Mike Huckabee (withdrawn) John Kasich (withdrawn) Rand Paul (withdrawn) Marco Rubio (withdrawn) Rick Santorum (withdrawn) Donald Trump

Donald Trump, the only candidate with an active campaign, won every delegate from New Mexico.

General election Polling

Albuquerque Journal October 2, 2016 Clinton 35% Trump 31% Johnson 24% Stein 2%

Albuquerque Journal November 5, 2016 Clinton 45% Trump 40% Johnson 11% Stein 3%

Clinton won every pre-election poll conducted. Her margin of victory varied from 2 points to 13 points. The last poll showed Clinton ahead of Trump 46% to 44%, while the RealClearPolitics average of the last three had Clinton leading Trump 45.3% to 40.3% on the day of the election, with Gary Johnson at 9.3% and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 2.3%. Johnson's highest level of support was 25% in a Washington Post-SurveyMonkey poll in early September.

Predictions SourceRankingAs ofLos Angeles Times November 6, 2016CNNNovember 4, 2016Cook Political ReportNovember 7, 2016Electoral-vote.comNovember 8, 2016 Rothenberg Political Report November 7, 2016Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 7, 2016RealClearPoliticsNovember 8, 2016Fox NewsNovember 7, 2016

Results

By county County Hillary ClintonDemocratic Donald TrumpRepublicanGary JohnsonLibertarian Various candidatesOther parties Margin Total votes cast # % # % # % # % # % Bernalillo 143,417 52.22% 94,698 34.48% 29,682 10.81% 6,865 2.50% 48,719 17.74% 274,662 Catron 427 20.84% 1,464 71.45% 111 5.42% 47 2.29% -1,037 -50.61% 2,049 Chaves 5,534 27.30% 12,872 63.50% 1,609 7.94% 256 1.26% -7,338 -36.20% 20,271 Cibola 3,741 46.40% 3,195 39.63% 970 12.03% 157 1.95% 546 6.77% 8,063 Colfax 2,129 39.93% 2,585 48.48% 527 9.88% 91 1.71% -456 -8.55% 5,332 Curry 3,121 23.34% 9,035 67.58% 973 7.28% 241 1.80% -5,914 -44.24% 13,370 De Baca 193 21.21% 620 68.13% 89 9.78% 8 0.88% -427 -46.92% 910 Doña Ana 37,947 53.71% 25,374 35.92% 5,471 7.74% 1,856 2.63% 12,573 17.79% 70,648 Eddy 5,033 25.59% 13,147 66.85% 1,275 6.48% 212 1.08% -8,114 -41.26% 19,667 Grant 6,276 48.99% 5,288 41.28% 899 7.02% 348 2.72% 988 7.71% 12,811 Guadalupe 970 53.09% 595 32.57% 238 13.03% 24 1.31% 375 20.52% 1,827 Harding 156 29.60% 311 59.01% 55 10.44% 5 0.95% -155 -29.41% 527 Hidalgo 784 41.88% 910 48.61% 137 7.32% 41 2.19% -126 -6.73% 1,872 Lea 3,930 22.19% 12,495 70.55% 1,098 6.20% 189 1.07% -8,565 -48.36% 17,712 Lincoln 2,331 26.19% 5,896 66.23% 560 6.29% 115 1.29% -3,565 -40.04% 8,902 Los Alamos 5,562 51.10% 3,359 30.86% 1,512 13.89% 452 4.15% 2,203 20.24% 10,885 Luna 3,195 43.80% 3,478 47.68% 481 6.59% 141 1.93% -283 -3.88% 7,295 McKinley 13,576 62.55% 5,104 23.52% 2,412 11.11% 611 2.82% 8,472 39.03% 21,703 Mora 1,536 62.93% 665 27.24% 194 7.95% 46 1.88% 871 35.69% 2,441 Otero 6,124 30.53% 11,887 59.26% 1,613 8.04% 436 2.17% -5,763 -28.73% 20,060 Quay 1,017 28.47% 2,212 61.93% 299 8.37% 44 1.23% -1,195 -33.46% 3,572 Rio Arriba 9,592 64.47% 3,599 24.19% 1,425 9.58% 262 1.76% 5,993 40.28% 14,878 Roosevelt 1,454 24.44% 3,884 65.28% 482 8.10% 130 2.18% -2,430 -40.84% 5,950 San Juan 12,865 27.90% 27,946 60.61% 4,200 9.11% 1099 2.38% -15,081 -32.71% 46,110 San Miguel 7,285 67.76% 2,313 21.51% 915 8.61% 238 2.21% 4,972 46.25% 10,751 Sandoval 27,707 44.91% 25,905 41.99% 6,657 10.79% 1,421 2.30% 1,802 2.92% 61,690 Santa Fe 50,793 71.10% 14,332 20.06% 4,362 6.11% 1,947 2.73% 36,461 51.04% 71,434 Sierra 1,612 31.11% 3,010 58.10% 442 8.53% 117 2.26% -1,398 -26.99% 5,181 Socorro 3,313 48.24% 2,616 38.09% 802 11.68% 137 1.99% 697 10.15% 6,868 Taos 10,668 69.91% 2,727 17.87% 1,179 7.73% 686 4.50% 7,941 52.04% 15,260 Torrance 1,785 28.23% 3,714 58.73% 692 10.94% 133 2.10% -1,929 -30.50% 6,324 Union 320 18.80% 1,216 71.45% 134 7.87% 32 1.88% -896 -52.65% 1,702 Valencia 10,841 39.29% 13,215 47.89% 3,046 11.04% 490 1.78% -2,374 -8.60% 27,592Total385,23448.26%319,66740.04%74,541 9.34%18,8772.36%65,5678.22%798,319

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Colfax (largest city: Raton) Hidalgo (largest city: Lordsburg) Valencia (largest village: Los Lunas)

By congressional district Clinton won two of three congressional districts. District Trump Clinton Representative 35% 52%Michelle Lujan Grisham 50% 40%Steve Pearce 37% 52%Ben Ray Luján

See also 2016 Democratic Party presidential debates and forums 2016 Democratic Party presidential primaries 2016 Republican Party presidential debates and forums 2016 Republican Party presidential primaries

References