2016 United States presidential election in Michigan

The 2016 United States presidential election in Michigan was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Michigan voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and his running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. At that time, Michigan had 16 electoral votes in the Electoral College.

Prior to the election, Michigan was considered to be a state Clinton was favored to win. However, Trump unexpectedly won Michigan by a narrow margin of 0.23%, with 47.50% of the total votes over Clinton's 47.27%. This made Michigan 2.33% more Republican than the nation-at-large. The state was the last to be called by most major news networks due to the close nature and the need to count provisional and absentee ballots; most networks declared Trump the winner of Michigan's electors three weeks after Election Day. This is the narrowest margin of victory in Michigan's history in presidential elections, as well as the narrowest margin of any state in the 2016 election. Trump's victory in Michigan was attributed to overwhelming and underestimated support from white working-class citizens in the state's rural areas, a demographic that had previously tended to either vote for the Democratic candidate or did not vote at all. By winning Michigan, Trump became the first Republican presidential candidate to win the state since George H. W. Bush in 1988. Michigan also became one of eleven states to vote for Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996 which Hillary Clinton lost.

Michigan's largest county, Wayne County, home to Detroit, voted for Clinton by 37 points. She also managed to hold on to suburban Oakland County, the state's second-largest county, where residents tend to be more diverse and more white-collar, where instead third-party candidates gained votes, whilst Trump flipped the state's third largest county, Macomb County, which is home to more socially conservative but economically populist white blue-collar workers. As of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, this is the last time in which Kent County and Leelanau County voted for the Republican candidate, and the only time since 1976 that the Democratic presidential nominee won the nationwide popular vote without winning Michigan.

Primary elections Democratic primary

The 2016 Michigan Democratic presidential primary was held on March 8 in the U.S. state of Michigan as one of the Democratic primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election. On the same day, the Republican Party held primaries in four states, including their own Michigan primary. Bernie Sanders' narrow win was one of the largest upsets in American political history, with polling before the primary showing him trailing Hillary Clinton by an average of 21.4 points.

Results Four candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential primary ballot:

Republican primary Four candidates participated in the Republican primary.

Debate Detroit, March 3 Candidate Airtime Polls Trump 26:40 35.6% Cruz 19:23 19.8% Rubio 13:32 17.4% Kasich 15:20 8.8% The eleventh debate was held on March 3, 2016, at the Fox Theatre in downtown Detroit, Michigan. It was the third debate to air on Fox News Channel. Special Report anchor Bret Baier, The Kelly File anchor Megyn Kelly and Fox News Sunday host Chris Wallace served as moderators. It led into the Maine, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Idaho, and Hawaii contests. Fox announced that in order for candidates to qualify, they must have at least 3 percent support in the five most recent national polls by March 1 at 5 pm. Ben Carson said on March 2 he would not be attending the debate.

Results Thirteen candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot:

General election Predictions SourceRankingAs ofLos Angeles Times November 6, 2016CNNNovember 4, 2016Cook Political ReportNovember 7, 2016Electoral-vote.comNovember 8, 2016RealClearPoliticsNovember 7, 2016 Rothenberg Political Report November 7, 2016Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 7, 2016Fox NewsNovember 7, 2016

Polling

Except for losing one poll in August 2015, and tying with Trump in a poll in September 2015, Clinton won every pre-election poll with margins between 4 and 12 points until November 2016. In late October 2016, Clinton's lead narrowed significantly towards the election. Trump also won the last poll conducted on election day 49% to 47%. The average of the last three polls had Clinton leading Trump 47.6% to 45%. Ultimately, Trump's win here was an extreme surprise.

Minor candidates The following were given write-in status: Cherunda Fox Ben Hartnell Tom Hoefling Laurence Kotlikoff Evan McMullin Mike Maturen Monica Moorehead

Results 2016 United States presidential election in MichiganPartyCandidateRunning mateVotesPercentageElectoral votes Republican Donald Trump Mike Pence 2,279,543 47.50% 16 Democratic Hillary Clinton Tim Kaine 2,268,839 47.27% 0 Libertarian Gary Johnson Bill Weld 172,136 3.59% 0 Green Jill Stein Ajamu Baraka 51,463 1.07% 0 U.S. Taxpayers' Darrell L. Castle Scott N. Bradley 16,139 0.34% 0 Independent Evan McMullin (write-in) - 8,177 0.17% 0 Natural Law Mimi Soltysik Angela Nicole Walker 2,209 0.05% 0 - Others - 778 0.01% 0Totals4,799,284100.00% 16

By county CountyDonald TrumpRepublicanHillary ClintonDemocraticVarious candidatesOther partiesMarginTotal#%#%#%#%Alcona4,20167.78%1,73227.94%2654.28%2,46939.84%6,198Alger2,58557.22%1,66336.81%2705.97%92220.41%4,518Allegan34,18360.91%18,05032.16%3,8876.93%16,13328.75%56,120Alpena9,09061.55%4,87733.02%8015.43%4,21328.53%14,768Antrim8,46961.97%4,44832.55%7505.48%4,02129.42%13,667Arenac4,95064.04%2,38430.84%3955.12%2,56633.20%7,729Baraga2,15861.34%1,15632.86%2045.80%1,00228.48%3,518Barry19,20262.92%9,11429.87%2,2017.21%10,08833.05%30,517Bay28,32853.17%21,64240.62%3,3046.21%6,68612.55%53,274Benzie5,53954.16%4,10840.16%5815.68%1,43114.00%10,228Berrien38,64753.65%29,49540.95%3,8895.40%9,15212.70%72,031Branch11,78666.73%5,06128.65%8164.62%6,72538.08%17,663Calhoun31,49453.47%24,15741.01%3,2515.52%7,33712.46%58,902Cass14,24363.04%7,27032.18%1,0824.78%6,97330.86%22,595Charlevoix8,67459.19%5,13735.06%8435.75%3,53724.13%14,654Cheboygan8,68363.51%4,30231.47%6875.02%4,38132.04%13,672Chippewa9,12258.65%5,37934.59%1,0516.76%3,74324.06%15,552Clare8,50563.24%4,24931.59%6955.17%4,25631.65%13,449Clinton21,63652.85%16,49240.29%2,8096.86%5,14412.56%40,937Crawford4,35463.62%2,11030.83%3805.55%2,24432.79%6,844Delta11,12159.81%6,43634.61%1,0375.58%4,68525.20%18,594Dickinson8,58064.84%3,92329.65%7295.51%4,65735.19%13,232Eaton27,60948.80%24,93844.08%4,0287.12%2,6714.72%56,575Emmet10,61655.89%6,97236.71%1,4067.40%3,64419.18%18,994Genesee84,17542.59%102,75151.99%10,7155.42%-18,576-9.40%197,641Gladwin8,12464.77%3,79430.25%6244.98%4,33034.52%12,542Gogebic4,01854.42%2,92539.62%4405.96%1,09314.80%7,383Grand Traverse27,41352.73%20,96540.33%3,6076.94%6,44812.40%51,985Gratiot9,88060.01%5,66634.41%9195.58%4,21425.60%16,465Hillsdale14,09570.69%4,79924.07%1,0465.24%9,29646.62%19,940Houghton8,47553.77%6,01838.18%1,2688.05%2,45715.59%15,761Huron10,69267.06%4,57928.72%6734.22%6,11338.34%15,944Ingham43,86833.20%79,11059.87%9,1576.93%-35,242-26.67%132,135Ionia16,63561.52%8,35230.89%2,0527.59%8,28330.63%27,039Iosco8,34562.14%4,34532.36%7395.50%4,00029.78%13,429Iron3,67561.66%2,00433.62%2814.72%1,67128.04%5,960Isabella12,33848.31%11,40444.65%1,7987.04%9343.66%25,540Jackson39,79356.75%25,79536.78%4,5376.47%13,99819.97%70,125Kalamazoo51,03440.41%67,14853.17%8,1176.42%-16,114-12.76%126,299Kalkaska6,11669.24%2,28025.81%4374.95%3,83643.43%8,833Kent148,18047.66%138,68344.61%24,0317.73%9,4973.05%310,894Keweenaw81456.76%52736.75%936.49%28720.01%1,434Lake3,15958.96%1,93936.19%2604.85%1,22022.77%5,358Lapeer30,03766.48%12,73428.18%2,4125.34%17,30338.30%45,183Leelanau7,23948.61%6,77445.49%8795.90%4653.12%14,892Lenawee26,43057.09%16,75036.18%3,1186.73%9,68020.91%46,298Livingston65,68061.68%34,38432.29%6,4256.03%31,29629.39%106,489Luce1,75667.77%68126.28%1545.95%1,07541.49%2,591Mackinac3,74460.94%2,08533.94%3155.12%1,65927.00%6,144Macomb224,66553.58%176,31742.05%18,3304.37%48,34811.53%419,312Manistee6,91554.62%4,97939.33%7666.05%1,93615.29%12,660Marquette14,64644.09%16,04248.29%2,5307.62%-1,396-4.20%33,218Mason8,50557.50%5,28135.70%1,0066.80%3,22421.80%14,792Mecosta10,30559.71%5,82733.76%1,1276.53%4,47825.95%17,259Menominee6,70261.92%3,53932.70%5835.38%3,16329.22%10,824Midland23,84655.75%15,63536.55%3,2957.70%8,21119.20%42,776Missaukee5,38673.61%1,56521.39%3665.00%3,82152.22%7,317Monroe43,26157.95%26,86335.98%4,5316.07%16,39821.97%74,655Montcalm16,90763.18%7,87429.42%1,9797.40%9,03333.76%26,760Montmorency3,49869.52%1,28725.58%2474.90%2,21143.94%5,032Muskegon36,12745.89%37,30447.39%5,2926.72%-1,177-1.50%78,723Newaygo15,17366.60%6,21227.27%1,3976.13%8,96139.33%22,782Oakland289,20343.23%343,07051.29%36,6525.48%-53,867-8.06%668,925Oceana7,22860.59%3,97333.30%7296.11%3,25527.29%11,930Ogemaw6,82765.39%3,03029.02%5835.59%3,79736.37%10,440Ontonagon2,06660.18%1,17634.26%1915.56%89025.92%3,433Osceola7,33669.15%2,70525.50%5685.35%4,63143.65%10,609Oscoda2,84369.48%1,04425.51%2055.01%1,79943.97%4,092Otsego8,26665.55%3,55628.20%7886.25%4,71037.35%12,610Ottawa88,46761.50%44,97331.26%10,4087.24%43,49430.24%143,848Presque Isle4,48861.84%2,40033.07%3695.09%2,08828.77%7,257Roscommon8,14162.16%4,28732.74%6685.10%3,85429.42%13,096Saginaw45,46947.97%44,39646.84%4,9155.19%1,0731.13%94,780Sanilac13,44669.85%4,87325.32%9304.83%8,57344.53%19,249Schoolcraft2,55661.19%1,36932.77%2526.04%1,18728.42%4,177Shiawassee19,23056.37%12,54636.78%2,3356.85%6,68419.59%34,111St. Clair49,05162.88%24,55331.48%4,3995.64%24,49831.40%78,003St. Joseph14,88462.10%7,52631.40%1,5576.50%7,35830.70%23,967Tuscola17,10265.96%7,42928.65%1,3975.39%9,67337.31%25,928Van Buren17,89053.77%13,25839.84%2,1266.39%4,63213.93%33,274Washtenaw50,63126.64%128,48367.59%10,9655.77%-77,852-40.95%190,079Wayne228,99329.26%519,44466.36%34,2824.38%-290,451-37.10%782,719Wexford10,00065.06%4,43628.86%9346.08%5,56436.20%15,370Totals2,279,54347.25%2,268,83947.03%276,1605.72%10,7040.22%4,824,542

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Bay (largest city: Bay City) Calhoun (largest city: Battle Creek) Eaton (largest city: Charlotte) Gogebic (largest city: Ironwood) Isabella (largest city: Mount Pleasant) Lake (largest village: Baldwin) Macomb (largest city: Warren) Manistee (largest city: Manistee) Monroe (largest city: Monroe) Saginaw (largest city: Saginaw) Shiawassee (largest city: Owosso) Van Buren (largest city: South Haven)

By congressional district Trump won nine of 14 congressional districts. District Trump Clinton Representative58%37%Dan BenishekJack Bergman 56% 38%Bill Huizenga 52% 42%Justin Amash 59% 35%John Moolenaar 45% 50%Dan Kildee 51% 43%Fred Upton 56% 39%Tim Walberg 51% 44%Mike Bishop 44% 51%Sander Levin 64%32%Candice MillerPaul Mitchell 50% 45%David Trott 34% 61%Debbie Dingell 18% 79%John Conyers Jr. 18% 79%Brenda Lawrence

Analysis