The 2016 United States presidential election in Missouri was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Missouri voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. Missouri has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College.
Trump carried the state with 56.4% of the vote, while Clinton received 37.9%. Trump's 18.5-point margin of victory in the state was almost double that of Mitt Romney's from 2012. Clinton carried only four jurisdictions: Boone County, home to Columbia and the University of Missouri; Jackson County, which includes most of Kansas City; St. Louis County; and St. Louis City. Clinton's vote share percentage was the lowest a Democratic presidential nominee obtained in the state since George McGovern's 37.7% in 1972, further cementing the state's drift towards the Republican Party and away from its long-held status as a bellwether state. Missouri was also one of eleven states that voted for Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996 but were lost by Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Additionally, this was the first time since 1984 that Missouri voted by double digits for the Republican candidate, and the first time since 1992 that the state voted by double digits for either candidate.
Primary elections
Democratic primary
Nine candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential primary ballot: Jon Adams Hillary Clinton Rocky De La Fuente Henry Hewes Keith Judd Martin O'Malley (withdrawn) Bernie Sanders Willie L. Wilson John Wolfe Jr.
+ Missouri Democratic primary, March 15, 2016 Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total Hillary Clinton 310,600 49.61% 36 11 47 Bernie Sanders 309,073 49.37% 35 0 35 Uncommitted 3,697 0.59% 0 2 2 Henry Hewes 651 0.10% 0 0 0 Martin O'Malley 437 0.07% 0 0 0 Jon Adams 428 0.07% 0 0 0 Rocky De La Fuente 340 0.05% 0 0 0 Willie Wilson 305 0.05% 0 0 0 Keith Judd 284 0.05% 0 0 0 John Wolfe 245 0.04% 0 0 0 Total 626,060 100% 71 13 84 Source:The Green Papers
Republican primary
Twelve candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot: Jeb Bush (withdrawn) Ben Carson (withdrawn) Chris Christie (withdrawn) Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina (withdrawn) Mike Huckabee (withdrawn) John Kasich Rand Paul (withdrawn) Marco Rubio (withdrawn) Rick Santorum (withdrawn) Donald Trump
Libertarian primary The Missouri primary ran on March 15, 2016, alongside those of the Republican, Democratic, and Constitution parties. Of the electorate, 40% voted to stand uncommitted to any candidate. Austin Petersen, running in his home state, finished second, with 29% of the statewide vote, which was double that of Steve Kerbel from Colorado, who finished third, with 14%. Petersen comfortably won the support of voters in the state's capital, Jefferson City, and its surrounding counties, but fell heavily behind the uncommitted vote in the state's two largest cities, Kansas City and St. Louis. Kerbel won three counties around Springfield, while Marc Allan Feldman, Cecil Ince, and Rhett Smith all won a sprawl of counties across the state; in most of these counties, however, only a single vote was cast. No votes were cast for Libertarian Party candidates in the northwestern counties of Harrison, Holt, Mercer, and Worth.
+ Missouri Libertarian presidential primary, March 15, 2016 Candidate Votes Percentage Uncommitted 1,183 40.61% Austin Petersen 854 29.32% Steve Kerbel 401 13.77% Marc Allan Feldman 242 8.31% Cecil Ince 134 4.60% Rhett Smith 99 3.40% Total 2,913 100%
General election Polling
Republican Donald Trump won every pre-election poll conducted here except one. Trump won most polls by high single digits or low double digits. The average of the last three polls had Donald Trump leading Democrat Hillary Clinton 50% to 39%.
Predictions The following are final 2016 predictions from various organizations for Missouri as of election day. SourceRankingAs ofLos Angeles Times November 6, 2016CNNNovember 4, 2016Cook Political ReportNovember 7, 2016Electoral-vote.comNovember 8, 2016 Rothenberg Political Report November 7, 2016Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 7, 2016RealClearPoliticsNovember 8, 2016Fox NewsNovember 7, 2016
Results The Statewide election results were as follows. The total vote count was 2,828,266.
By county CountyDonald TrumpRepublicanHillary ClintonDemocraticVarious candidatesOther partiesMarginTotal#%#%#%#%Adair6,03058.97%3,50034.23%6966.80%2,53024.74%10,226Andrew6,66572.49%2,04522.24%4845.27%4,62050.25%9,194Atchison2,06075.46%54119.82%1294.72%1,51955.64%2,730Audrain6,98168.89%2,57025.36%5825.75%4,41143.53%10,133Barry11,42878.25%2,71018.56%4673.19%8,71859.69%14,605Barton4,95983.50%79513.39%1853.11%4,16470.11%5,939Bates6,00174.24%1,61820.02%4645.74%4,38354.22%8,083Benton7,21375.21%2,02521.12%3523.67%5,18854.09%9,590Bollinger4,82785.04%70512.42%1442.54%4,12272.62%5,676Boone36,20043.16%41,12549.04%6,5437.80%-4,925-5.88%83,868Buchanan21,32059.28%12,01333.40%2,6317.32%9,30725.88%35,964Butler13,65079.09%3,03617.59%5733.32%10,61461.50%17,259Caldwell3,23274.95%83819.43%2425.62%2,39455.52%4,312Callaway13,05767.54%4,98925.81%1,2876.65%8,06841.73%19,333Camden16,94474.71%4,76821.02%9684.27%12,17653.69%22,680Cape Girardeau27,01772.41%8,49222.76%1,8024.83%18,52549.65%37,311Carroll3,48079.80%74517.08%1363.12%2,73562.72%4,361Carter2,32481.54%43615.30%903.16%1,88866.24%2,850Cass33,09864.38%14,84628.88%3,4666.74%18,25235.50%51,410Cedar5,02179.36%1,01115.98%2954.66%4,01063.38%6,327Chariton2,95074.33%88822.37%1313.30%2,06251.96%3,969Christian30,94673.92%8,50820.32%2,4095.76%22,43853.60%41,863Clark2,45874.13%72421.83%1344.04%1,73452.30%3,316Clay57,47651.70%45,30440.75%8,3907.55%12,17210.95%111,170Clinton7,06768.60%2,57224.97%6626.43%4,49543.63%10,301Cole24,61665.37%10,91328.98%2,1275.65%13,70336.39%37,656Cooper5,62470.42%1,93224.19%4305.39%3,69246.23%7,986Crawford7,72477.86%1,82418.39%3723.75%5,90059.47%9,920Dade3,18480.59%63716.12%1303.29%2,54764.47%3,951Dallas5,89579.10%1,27217.07%2863.83%4,62362.03%7,453Daviess2,76774.02%73019.53%2416.45%2,03754.49%3,738DeKalb3,54076.52%82417.81%2625.67%2,71658.71%4,626Dent5,60082.46%97814.40%2133.14%4,62268.06%6,791Douglas5,48682.30%98414.76%1962.94%4,50267.54%6,666Dunklin8,02675.87%2,36022.31%1921.82%5,66653.56%10,578Franklin35,43070.20%12,34124.45%2,7015.35%23,08945.75%50,472Gasconade5,67076.10%1,52020.40%2613.50%4,15055.70%7,451Gentry2,30475.71%60519.88%1344.41%1,69955.83%3,043Greene78,03559.79%42,72832.74%9,7607.47%35,30727.05%130,523Grundy3,46278.18%78017.62%1864.20%2,68260.56%4,428Harrison2,96580.37%57415.56%1504.07%2,39164.81%3,689Henry7,07571.38%2,35723.78%4804.84%4,71847.60%9,912Hickory3,54274.40%1,01621.34%2034.26%2,52653.06%4,761Holt1,92681.78%34714.73%823.49%1,57967.05%2,355Howard3,27767.32%1,28326.36%3086.32%1,99440.96%4,868Howell13,89379.59%2,88116.51%6813.90%11,01263.08%17,455Iron3,17374.33%93321.86%1633.81%2,24052.47%4,269Jackson116,21138.14%168,97255.46%19,5046.40%-52,761-17.32%304,687Jasper35,07072.57%10,57221.88%2,6845.55%24,49850.69%48,326Jefferson69,03664.52%31,56829.50%6,3915.98%37,46835.02%106,995Johnson13,71964.22%5,93027.76%1,7138.02%7,78936.46%21,362Knox1,41675.72%37920.27%754.01%1,03755.45%1,870Laclede12,88179.81%2,55315.82%7064.37%10,32863.99%16,140Lafayette10,98868.78%4,05325.37%9345.85%6,93543.41%15,975Lawrence13,08977.86%2,90117.26%8214.88%10,18860.60%16,811Lewis3,34474.64%93420.85%2024.51%2,41053.79%4,480Lincoln18,15972.31%5,57522.20%1,3805.49%12,58450.11%25,114Linn4,08873.17%1,24022.19%2594.64%2,84850.98%5,587Livingston4,87975.99%1,26519.70%2774.31%3,61456.29%6,421Macon5,79875.98%1,54820.29%2853.73%4,25055.69%7,631Madison4,10277.09%1,00518.89%2144.02%3,09758.20%5,321Maries3,56179.13%79417.64%1453.23%2,76761.49%4,500Marion9,41972.80%2,99423.14%5254.06%6,42549.66%12,938McDonald6,59979.49%1,32916.01%3744.50%5,27063.48%8,302Mercer1,48685.16%21612.38%432.46%1,27072.78%1,745Miller9,28580.87%1,75015.24%4473.89%7,53565.63%11,482Mississippi3,60069.65%1,45828.21%1112.14%2,14241.44%5,169Moniteau5,34778.29%1,23718.11%2463.60%4,11060.18%6,830Monroe3,15976.01%85320.52%1443.47%2,30655.49%4,156Montgomery4,12776.02%1,11920.61%1833.37%3,00855.41%5,429Morgan6,76076.64%1,76820.04%2933.32%4,99256.60%8,821New Madrid5,27071.63%1,93326.27%1542.10%3,33745.36%7,357Newton20,55376.67%4,99018.61%1,2644.72%15,56358.06%26,807Nodaway6,38067.46%2,52926.74%5495.80%3,85140.72%9,458Oregon3,67178.64%86518.53%1322.83%2,80660.11%4,668Osage5,85682.60%99814.08%2363.32%4,85868.52%7,090Ozark3,63980.78%72416.07%1423.15%2,91564.71%4,505Pemiscot3,96465.60%1,94732.22%1322.18%2,01733.38%6,043Perry6,90879.04%1,52017.39%3123.57%5,38861.65%8,740Pettis12,81070.37%4,32423.75%1,0705.88%8,48646.62%18,204Phelps12,70967.92%4,76625.47%1,2386.61%7,94342.45%18,713Pike5,27471.00%1,80624.31%3484.69%3,46846.69%7,428Platte25,93352.28%20,05740.43%3,6187.29%5,87611.85%49,608Polk10,43875.84%2,63119.12%6945.04%7,80756.72%13,763Pulaski9,87672.71%2,92221.51%7845.78%6,95451.20%13,582Putnam1,93682.52%35315.05%572.43%1,58367.47%2,346Ralls3,96974.97%1,13821.50%1873.53%2,83153.47%5,294Randolph7,52972.34%2,28321.94%5965.72%5,24650.40%10,408Ray7,10464.91%3,09028.23%7516.86%4,01436.68%10,945Reynolds2,40679.20%54017.77%923.03%1,86661.43%3,038Ripley4,52281.86%83015.03%1723.11%3,69266.83%5,524Saline5,97764.45%2,78930.07%5085.48%3,18834.38%9,274Schuyler1,50577.74%35418.29%773.97%1,15159.45%1,936Scotland1,52576.98%36518.43%914.59%1,16058.55%1,981Scott13,16875.95%3,57520.62%5943.43%9,59355.33%17,337Shannon2,96675.97%77619.88%1624.15%2,19056.09%3,904Shelby2,52477.09%60618.51%1444.40%1,91858.58%3,274St. Charles121,65059.87%68,62633.78%12,9086.35%53,02426.09%203,184St. Clair3,50175.62%93620.22%1934.16%2,56555.40%4,630St. Francois17,46870.10%6,25025.08%1,2024.82%11,21845.02%24,920St. Louis202,43438.95%286,70455.17%30,5485.88%-84,270-16.22%519,686St. Louis City20,83215.72%104,23578.68%7,4205.60%-83,403-62.96%132,487Ste. Genevieve5,49664.57%2,54229.86%4745.57%2,95434.71%8,512Stoddard11,07983.36%1,87614.11%3362.53%9,20369.25%13,291Stone13,15879.05%2,88717.34%6003.61%10,27161.71%16,645Sullivan1,88475.78%52621.16%763.06%1,35854.62%2,486Taney18,27677.20%4,37318.47%1,0244.33%13,90358.73%23,673Texas8,87581.01%1,72815.77%3533.22%7,14765.24%10,956Vernon6,53375.69%1,70719.78%3914.53%4,82655.91%8,631Warren11,11170.39%3,91524.80%7584.81%7,19645.59%15,784Washington7,04875.53%1,92620.64%3573.83%5,12254.89%9,331Wayne4,65880.84%94816.45%1562.71%3,71064.39%5,762Webster12,84076.69%3,17718.98%7264.33%9,66357.71%16,743Worth80877.25%19518.64%434.11%61358.61%1,046Wright6,70782.61%1,17014.41%2422.98%5,53768.20%8,119Totals1,594,51156.38%1,071,06837.87%162,6875.75%523,44318.51%2,828,266
By congressional district Trump won six of eight congressional districts. District Trump Clinton Representative 19% 77%Lacy Clay 53% 42%Ann Wagner 67% 28%Blaine Luetkemeyer 65% 29%Vicky Hartzler 40% 55%Emanuel Cleaver 64% 31%Sam Graves 70% 25%Billy Long 75% 21%Jason Smith
Analysis
Although Trump's victory in the state was expected, Missouri had one of the larger shifts towards Trump, shifting rightward by 9%. Trump's 18.5% margin of victory in Missouri was the largest for a Republican since Ronald Reagan in 1984.
The state was once considered a bellwether, voting for the winner of every presidential election from 1904 to 2004 (except for 1956), and almost voting for Obama in 2008.
Consistent with Trump's largest gains in 2016 being among whites without college degrees in the Midwest, Upland South, and Northern United States, some counties in Missouri swung by margins upwards of 25% towards Trump. Trump particularly gained ground in the Lead Belt.