The 2018 United States Senate election in Michigan took place on November 6, 2018, in order to elect the Class 1 U.S. Senator from the State of Michigan, concurrently with a gubernatorial election, as well as other elections to the U.S. House of Representatives. This was one of ten Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state that Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election.
Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow won reelection to a fourth term. On August 7, 2018, John James won the Republican nomination, defeating businessman Sandy Pensler. On May 5, 2018, Marcia Squier received the endorsement and nomination of the Green Party of Michigan at the state convention in Flint.
Stabenow was re-elected by a 6.5% margin and a difference of 275,660 votes, making this the second-closest U.S. Senate election in Michigan since Stabenow was first elected in 2000.
Democratic primary Candidates Nominee Debbie Stabenow, incumbent U.S. Senator
Declined Mike Duggan, Mayor of Detroit
Withdrew Craig Allen Smith
Endorsements
Results
Republican primary Candidates
Nominee John James, businessman and Iraq veteran
Defeated in primary Sandy Pensler, former Wayne County Commissioner, businessman and candidate for MI-08 in 1992
Failed to qualify Bob Carr, historic preservationist, businessman and nominee for MI-01 in 1996
Declined John Engler, former governor Ted Nugent, musician and political activist (endorsed James) Robert Ritchie, better known as musician Kid Rock (endorsed James) Bill Schuette, Michigan Attorney General, former U.S. Representative and nominee for U.S. Senate in 1990 (ran for Governor) Fred Upton, U.S. Representative
Withdrew Lena Epstein, businesswoman (running for MI-11) Robert P. Young Jr., former chief justice of the Michigan Supreme Court (endorsed John James)
Endorsements
Debates A debate was held between John James and Sandy Pensler on July 6 and televised by WKAR-TV. It was the only televised debate scheduled between the two candidates.
Polling Pollsource Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JohnJames SandyPensler Other UndecidedMitchell ResearchMitchell Research July 30, 2018 413 ± 5.0% 44% 30% – 26%EPIC-MRAEPIC-MRA July 21–22, 2018 1,045 ± 3.1% 39% 38% – 23%Emerson CollegeEmerson College July 19–21, 2018 202 ± 7.3% 28% 28% – 44%Marist CollegeMarist College July 15–19, 2018 337 ± 6.3% 30% 23% 1% 46%National Research Inc. (R-Outsider PAC)National Research Inc. (R-Outsider PAC) July 11–14, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 21% 28% 10% 41%Target-InsyghtTarget-Insyght June 24–26, 2018 400 ± 5.0% 29% 32% – 39%Strategic National (R)Strategic National (R) June 16–21, 2018 1,000 ± 3.1% 18% 33% – 49%Strategic National (R)Strategic National (R) June 9–10, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 16% 29% – 54%Marketing Resource Group (R-Pensler)Marketing Resource Group (R-Pensler) May 28–29, 2018 627 ± 3.8% 26% 36% – 38%Strategic National (R)Strategic National (R) April 21, 2018 350 ± 5.2% 13% 26% – 61%Strategic National (R)Strategic National (R) April 4–5, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 12% 20% – 68%Denno ResearchDenno Research April 2–3, 2018 500 ± 4.0% 12% 16% – 72%Strategic National (R)Strategic National (R) March 19–20, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 17% 21% – 62%
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JohnJames SandyPensler FredUpton RobertYoung UndecidedStrategic National (R)Strategic National (R) December 16–17, 2017 600 ± 4.0% 9% 5% – 11% 75%Target-InsyghtTarget-Insyght November 1–6, 2017 1,000 – 24% – 19% 7% – Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error LenaEpstein BobYoung JohnJames RobertRitchie UndecidedZogby AnalyticsZogby Analytics September, 2017 – – 7% 3% 5%29%56%Trafalgar Group (R)Trafalgar Group (R) July 25–27, 2017 1,078 ± 3.1% 9% 6% 7% 50% 28%Target-InsyghtTarget-Insyght July 25–27, 2017 344 ± 5.35 8% 14% 16% 33% 29%
Results
Green Party Convention The Green Party of Michigan picked their candidates at a state convention on May 5, 2018.
Declared Marcia Squier, Green nominee for MI-14 in 2016
Withdrew Anita Belle, activist
General election Debates Complete video of debate, October 14, 2018 Complete video of debate, October 15, 2018
Fundraising Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018Candidate (party)Total receiptsTotal disbursementsCash on handDebbie Stabenow (D)$17,449,325.17$15,720,981.25$2,842,613.58John James (R)$9,838,137.84$7,953,403.16$1,884,735.02Source: Federal Election Commission
Predictions SourceRankingAs ofThe Cook Political Report October 26, 2018Inside Elections November 1, 2018Sabato's Crystal Ball November 5, 2018CNN November 5, 2018RealClearPolitics November 5, 2018Fox News November 5, 2018
Endorsements
Polling
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error DebbieStabenow (D) JohnJames (R) Other UndecidedMitchell ResearchMitchell Research November 5, 2018 827 ± 3.4% 49% 46% 1% 4%The Trafalgar Group (R)The Trafalgar Group (R) November 2–5, 2018 1,817 ± 2.3% 53% 44% 1% 2%Mitchell ResearchMitchell Research November 4, 2018 701 ± 3.7% 53% 46% 0% 1%Change ResearchChange Research November 2–4, 2018 880 – 49% 47% 3%George E. Huffman III (U.S. Taxpayers), Marcia Squier (G), and John Howard Wilhelm (Natural Law) with 1% –Research Co.Research Co. November 1–3, 2018 450 ± 4.6% 52% 36% 1% 11%Gravis MarketingGravis Marketing October 29–30, 2018 764 ± 3.6% 54% 41% – 6%Glengariff GroupGlengariff Group October 25–27, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 53% 36% 3%George E. Huffman III (U.S. Taxpayers), Marcia Squier (G) with 1%, John Howard Wilhelm (Natural Law) with 0% 8%Emerson CollegeEmerson College October 24–26, 2018 822 ± 3.6% 52% 43% 1% 4%Mitchell ResearchMitchell Research October 25, 2018 400 ± 5.0% 52% 46% 0% 2%Target-InsyghtTarget-Insyght October 22–24, 2018 800 ± 3.0% 53% 43% 4%Marcia Squier (G) with 2%, George Huffman (U.S. Taxpayers) and John Howard Wilhelm (Natural Law) with 1% 1%EPIC-MRAEPIC-MRA October 18–23, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 49% 42% 5% 4%The Tarrance Group (R)The Tarrance Group (R) October 20–22, 2018 605 ± 4.1% 48% 41% 4% 7%Michigan State UniversityMichigan State University October 13–22, 2018 169 – 49% 42% – –Marketing Resource GroupMarketing Resource Group October 14–18, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 53% 37% – 5%Mitchell ResearchMitchell Research September 30 – October 7, 2018 654 ± 3.8% 51% 42% – 8%Glengariff GroupGlengariff Group September 30 – October 2, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 53% 35% 3% 10%EPIC-MRAEPIC-MRA September 21–25, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 56% 33% 5% 6%IpsosIpsos September 14–24, 2018 1,150 ± 3.0% 55% 35% 4% 6%Target-InsyghtTarget-Insyght September 10–14, 2018 800 ± 3.0% 55% 40% – –Mitchell ResearchMitchell Research September 12–13, 2018 1,009 ± 3.0% 54% 41% – 5%Strategic National (R)Strategic National (R) September 8–9, 2018 1,000 ± 3.1% 53% 35% – 11%Glengariff GroupGlengariff Group September 5–7, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 56% 33% 2% 10%Gravis MarketingGravis Marketing August 14–16, 2018 647 ± 3.9% 51% 35% – 14%Strategic National (R)Strategic National (R) August 13–14, 2018 700 ± 3.7% 50% 35% 2% 13%The Tarrance Group (R)The Tarrance Group (R) August 11–14, 2018 602 ± 4.1% 49% 38% 3% 9%Emerson CollegeEmerson College July 19–21, 2018 600 ± 4.3% 47% 29% 8% 17%Marist College July 15–19, 2018 886 ± 3.9% 55% 37% 1% 8%SurveyMonkey/AxiosSurveyMonkey/Axios June 11 – July 2, 2018 978 ± 5.0% 54% 42% – 4%Glengariff GroupGlengariff Group January 16–19, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 51% 30% – 18%
with Sandy Pensler Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error DebbieStabenow (D) SandyPensler (R) Other UndecidedEmerson CollegeEmerson College July 19–21, 2018 600 ± 4.3% 48% 32% 7% 13%Marist College July 15–19, 2018 886 ± 3.9% 52% 37% 1% 10%SurveyMonkey/Axios June 11 – July 2, 2018 978 ± 5.0% 53% 41% – 5%Glengariff Group January 16–19, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 51% 30% – 18%
with generic Democrat and Republican Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error DebbieStabenow (D) GenericRepublican UndecidedSurveyMonkey/AxiosSurveyMonkey/Axios February 12 – March 5, 2018 2,012 ± 3.8% 49% 45% 6%
with Robert Ritchie (a.k.a. Kid Rock) Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error DebbieStabenow (D) RobertRitchie (R) UndecidedMitchell/Rosetta StoneMitchell/Rosetta Stone October 1, 2017 558 ± 4.2% 46% 38% 16%Zogby AnalyticsZogby Analytics September 19, 2017 800 ± 3.4% 46% 36% 18%Marketing Resource GroupMarketing Resource Group September 13–18, 2017 600 ± 4.0% 52% 34% 14%Target-InsyghtTarget-Insyght July 25–27, 2017 822 ± 3.5% 50% 42% 8%Trafalgar Group (R) July 25–27, 2017 1,078 ± 3.1% 46% 49% 5%
Results
By county