Opinion polling for the 2015 Canadian federal election by constituency

Various polling organizations conducted opinion polling in specific ridings in the lead up to the 2015 Canadian general election. The results of publicised opinion polling for individual constituencies are detailed in this article.

Opinion polls were conducted from the months following the previous general election held in May 2011, and increased in frequency leading up to the general election.

Given the expense of polling individual constituencies, constituencies are usually only polled if they are of some particular interest, e.g. they are thought to be marginal or facing an impending by-election. The constituencies polled are not necessarily representative of a national average swing. Under the first-past-the-post electoral system the true marginal seats, by definition, will be decisive as to the outcome of the election.

A total of 204 polls in 107 ridings across 9 provinces and 1 territory were conducted.

Constituency polls

Alberta Calgary Centre

Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Mainstreet Research HTML 38 19 39 6 0 ±3.72 pp 688 IVR Environics HTML 47 11 39 3 0 ±4.3 pp 531 IVR Environics PDF 44 17 32 7 0 ±4.3 pp 517 IVR2012 By-election HTML 37 4 33 26 1 ±0.0 pp 27,732 Election2011 Election HTML 55 15 19 10 0 ±0.0 pp 41,452 Election

Calgary Confederation

Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Mainstreet Research HTML 37 19 38 6 0 ±3.7 pp 679 IVR2011 Election HTML 52 16 18 14 0 ±0.0 pp 50,770 Election

Edmonton Centre

Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method ThinkHQ PDF 36 24 33 4 2 ±4.3 pp 517 IVR Mainstreet Research PDF 31 38 27 3 0 ±3.7 pp 701 IVR Forum Research HTML 40 30 27 4 0 ±5.0 pp 524 IVR Environics PDF 39 35 22 5 0 ±4.2 pp 547 IVR2011 Election HTML 46 26 24 4 1 ±0.0 pp 43,093 Election

Edmonton Griesbach

Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Environics PDF 32 48 15 5 0 ±4.3 pp 509 IVR2011 Election HTML 53 37 7 3 0 ±0.0 pp 37,766 Election

Edmonton Manning

Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Environics PDF 45 33 18 4 0 ±4.3 pp 512 IVR2011 Election HTML 55 27 9 3 6 ±0.0 pp 34,180 Election

Edmonton Mill Woods

Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Mainstreet Research PDF 39 15 39 7 0 ±3.73 pp 684 IVR2011 Election HTML 59 25 12 3 1 ±0.0 pp 35,454 Election

Edmonton Riverbend

Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Environics PDF 44 34 18 4 0 ±4.3 pp 522 IVR2011 Election HTML 59 21 15 5 0 ±0.0 pp 43,267 Election

Edmonton West

Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Environics PDF 48 19 29 4 0 ±3.9 pp 618 IVR2011 Election HTML 64 19 13 4 0 ±0.0 pp 43,267 Election

Fort McMurray—Cold Lake

Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Mainstreet Research HTML 45 15 35 5 0 ±4.4 pp 494 IVR2011 Election HTML 73 13 11 4 0 ±0.0 pp 25,650 Election

Lethbridge

Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Mainstreet Research HTML 56 26 13 4 0 ±3.81 pp 657 IVR Environics PDF 48 34 14 5 0 ±3.8 pp 639 IVR2011 Election HTML 52 30 9 5 4 ±0.0 pp 41,165 Election

St. Albert—Edmonton

Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Mainstreet Research HTML 43 20 7 2 28 ±3.74 pp 681 IVR Forum Research HTML 38 19 10 4 29 ±5.0 pp 490 IVR Environics PDF 39 20 15 4 22 ±3.1 pp 1,030 IVR2011 Election HTML 64 20 11 5 0 ±0.0 pp 42,842 Election

Yellowhead

Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Mainstreet Research HTML 63 15 15 3 3 ±4.1 pp 569 IVR2014 By-election HTML 63 10 20 5 3 ±0.0 pp 12,601 Election Forum Research PDF 51 13 24 0 13 ±6.0 pp 311 IVR Forum Research PDF 62 12 16 0 10 ±5.6 pp 360 IVR2011 Election HTML 78 13 3 5 1 ±0.0 pp 40,013 Election

British Columbia Burnaby North—Seymour

Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Mainstreet Research HTML 38 26 27 9 0 ±3.65 pp 716 IVR Insights West HTML 33 36 21 9 1 ±4.9 pp 400 Telephone Insights West HTML 33 37 21 9 0 ±5.6 pp 301 Telephone Insights West PDF 20 46 8 25 1 ±5.6 pp 301 Telephone2011 Election HTML 44 35 16 4 1 ±0.0 pp 43,290 Election

Cariboo—Prince George

Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Environics PDF 30 36 29 5 0 ±4.4 pp 500 IVR2011 Election HTML 56 30 5 6 2 ±0.0 pp 43,239 Election

Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam

Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Environics PDF 31 34 29 6 0 ±4.4 pp 504 IVR2011 Election HTML 56 31 8 4 1 ±0.0 pp 40,286 Election

Courtenay—Alberni

Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Insights West HTML 32 34 18 15 1 ±4.9 pp 400 Telephone Mainstreet Research PDF 30 33 20 16 0 ±3.76 pp 672 IVR Insights West HTML 33 39 13 12 3 ±5.6 pp 301 Telephone Insights West PDF 30 42 14 11 3 ±5.6 pp 301 Telephone2011 Election HTML 45 41 7 7 1 ±0.0 pp 54,470 Election

Cowichan—Malahat—Langford

Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Insights West HTML 28 35 14 19 4 ±4.9 pp 400 Telephone Insights West PDF 28 41 15 10 5 ±5.6 pp 302 Telephone2011 Election HTML 43 44 6 7 0 ±0.0 pp 47,766 Election

Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke

Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Insights West HTML 19 39 20 21 1 ±5.6 pp 300 Telephone Insights West HTML 20 39 19 19 3 ±5.6 pp 300 Telephone Insights West PDF 17 50 14 16 4 ±5.6 pp 301 Telephone2011 Election HTML 37 39 10 13 0 ±0.0 pp 56,652 Election

Fleetwood—Port Kells

Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Mainstreet Research HTML 35 24 35 6 0 ±3.8 pp 661 IVR2011 Election HTML 48 33 16 3 0 ±0.0 pp 34,582 Election

Kootenay—Columbia

Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Environics HTML 37 37 15 11 0 ±4.3 pp 529 IVR2011 Election HTML 50 39 3 6 1 ±0.0 pp 52,801 Election

Nanaimo—Ladysmith

Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Insights West HTML 26 35 18 21 1 ±4.9 pp 400 Telephone Environics HTML 24 34 17 24 0 ±3.7 pp 699 IVR2011 Election HTML 40 45 7 7 0 ±0.0 pp 55,879 Election

North Island—Powell River

Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Environics HTML 27 41 18 14 0 ±4.2 pp 556 IVR2011 Election HTML 46 41 6 5 1 ±0.0 pp 50,897 Election

North Okanagan—Shuswap

Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Environics PDF 33 37 22 8 0 ±3.6 pp 755 IVR Mainstreet Research PDF 45 26 24 5 0 ±4.1 pp 567 IVR Oraclepoll Research PDF 38 41 12 9 0 ±5.5 pp 312 Telephone2011 Election HTML 55 26 7 11 0 ±0.0 pp 56,921 Election

North Vancouver

Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Insights West HTML 33 11 41 15 0 ±4.9 pp 400 Telephone Insights West HTML 31 14 41 13 1 ±5.6 pp 297 Telephone Insights West PDF 30 24 31 14 1 ±5.6 pp 305 Telephone2011 Election HTML 48 17 30 5 1 ±0.0 pp 50,306 Election

Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge

Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Environics HTML 35 41 19 6 0 ±4.2 pp 543 IVR2011 Election HTML 55 35 6 5 0 ±0.0 pp 38,418 Election

Port Moody—Coquitlam

Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Environics HTML 34 41 19 7 0 ±4.3 pp 529 IVR Environics PDF 27 54 14 5 0 ±4.3 pp 511 IVR2011 Election HTML 46 40 9 4 0 ±0.0 pp 43,458 Election

South Okanagan—West Kootenay

Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Insights West HTML 31 36 23 8 3 ±5.6 pp 301 Telephone Insights West HTML 33 42 18 4 3 ±5.6 pp 303 Telephone Insights West PDF 25 55 11 6 2 ±5.6 pp 302 Telephone2011 Election HTML 39 45 7 8 1 ±0.0 pp 56,652 Election

Vancouver Granville

Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Environics PDF 28 33 35 4 0 ±4.4 pp 505 IVR Mainstreet Research PDF 20 28 44 9 0 ±3.8 pp 665 IVR Environics HTML 29 36 30 6 0 ±4.2 pp 541 IVR Environics PDF 30 36 24 10 0 ±4.5 pp 482 IVR2011 Election HTML 35 24 30 9 1 ±0.0 pp 43,654 Election

Vancouver South

Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Insights West HTML 33 19 38 8 1 ±5.6 pp 301 Telephone Insights West HTML 27 22 40 8 3 ±5.6 pp 303 Telephone Insights West PDF 24 30 39 4 3 ±5.6 pp 301 Telephone2011 Election HTML 42 21 34 2 1 ±0.0 pp 36,706 Election

West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country

Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Mainstreet Research HTML 32 15 37 16 0 ±3.76 pp 673 IVR Insights West HTML 31 14 42 13 0 ±4.9 pp 403 Telephone Insights West HTML 30 22 34 11 2 ±5.6 pp 302 Telephone Environics PDF 23 27 30 19 0 ±4.1 pp 582 IVR Insights West PDF 30 26 31 12 1 ±5.6 pp 301 Telephone2011 Election HTML 46 21 24 8 1 ±0.0 pp 52,062 Election

Manitoba Elmwood—Transcona

Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Environics HTML 39 37 20 4 0 ±4.2 pp 552 IVR Environics PDF 30 39 25 6 0 ±4.3 pp 517 IVR2011 Election HTML 47 45 5 3 0 ±0.0 pp 34,287 Election

Saint Boniface—Saint Vital

Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Mainstreet Research HTML 33 25 37 5 0 ±3.83 pp 651 IVR2011 Election HTML 50 16 31 3 0 ±0.0 pp 40,418 Election

Winnipeg South Centre

Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Environics HTML 31 23 38 8 0 ±4.0 pp 597 IVR2011 Election HTML 41 18 37 3 1 ±0.0 pp 46,619 Election

New Brunswick Fredericton

Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Environics HTML 32 14 43 12 0 ±3.4 pp 839 IVR Environics PDF 32 20 37 10 0 ±4.1 pp 580 IVR Environics PDF 29 26 34 12 0 ±3.5 pp 799 IVR2011 Election HTML 47 24 24 4 1 ±0.0 pp 38,772 Election

Saint John—Rothesay

Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Mainstreet Research PDF 36 26 34 4 0 ±4.33 pp 510 IVR Environics HTML 38 25 33 4 0 ±3.7 pp 623 IVR2011 Election HTML 50 31 16 3 1 ±0.0 pp 35,964 Election

Newfoundland and Labrador Avalon

Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Mainstreet Research HTML 14 19 43 4 19 ±3.74 pp 679 IVR2011 Election HTML 37 29 33 1 1 ±0.0 pp 35,623 Election

Nova Scotia Central Nova

Polling FirmLast Dateof PollingLink Cons. NDP Liberal Green OtherMarginof ErrorSampleSizePolling Method Environics HTML 23 20 50 7 0 ±4.1 pp 573 IVR Mainstreet Research HTML 36 26 30 8 0 ±3.82 pp 652 IVR2011 Election HTML 55 27 14 4 0 ±0.0 pp 38,878 Election

Cumberland—Colchester