General elections were held in Turkey on 1 November 2015 to elect 550 members to the Grand National Assembly. They were the 25th general elections in the history of the Republic of Turkey and elected the country's 26th Parliament. The election resulted in the Justice and Development Party (AKP) regaining a parliamentary majority following a 'shock' victory, having lost it five months earlier in the June 2015 general elections.

The snap elections were called by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on 24 August 2015 after the June election resulted in a hung parliament and coalition negotiations broke down. Although the election, dubbed as a 're-run' of the inconclusive June election by President Erdoğan, was the 7th early election in the history of Turkish politics, it was the first to be overseen by an interim election government. The election rendered the 25th Parliament of Turkey, elected in June, the shortest in the Grand National Assembly's history, lasting for just five months and being in session for a total of 33 hours.

The elections took place amid security concerns after ceasefire negotiations between the government and Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) rebels collapsed in July, causing a resumption of separatist conflict in the predominantly Kurdish south-east of the country. Close to 150 security personnel lost their lives in the ensuing conflict, causing tensions between Turkish and Kurdish nationalists and raising security concerns over whether an election could have been peacefully conducted in the south-east, where conditions were described as a 'worsening bloodshed' by observers. Critics accused the government of deliberately sparking the conflict in order to win back votes it had lost to the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and decrease the turnout in Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) strongholds. The election was preceded by the deadliest terrorist attack in Turkey's modern history, after two suicide bombers killed 102 people attending a peace rally in central Ankara. Numerous political parties, notably the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), ended up either entirely cancelling or significantly toning down their election campaigns following the attack. Fehmi Demir, the leader of the Rights and Freedoms Party (HAK-PAR), was killed in a traffic accident six days before the election.

Amid speculation that the election would likely result in a second hung parliament, pollsters and commentators were found to have drastically underestimated the AKP vote, which bore resemblance to their record 2011 election victory. With 49.5% of the vote and 317 seats, the party won a comfortable majority of 84, while the CHP retained its main opposition status with 134 seats and 25.4% of the vote. The results were widely seen as a 'shock' win for the AKP and was hailed as a massive personal victory for President Erdoğan. The MHP and the HDP both saw decreases in support, with both hovering dangerously close to the 10% election threshold needed to win seats. The MHP, which was seen to have been punished for its perceivably unconstructive stance since June, halved their parliamentary representation from 80 to 40 and won 11.9% of the vote, while the HDP came third in terms of seats with 59 MPs despite coming fourth in terms of votes with 10.7%. The elections were broadly regarded as free and fair but were overshadowed by the violence between the Turkish state and the PKK, with concern that the electoral victory may embolden President Erdoğan to further crackdown upon free speech.

Background Turkish politics is largely dominated by four main parties. The largest is the right-wing Islamist rooted Justice and Development Party (AKP), which has been described as a conservative democratic party and has been in power since winning a landslide victory in the 2002 general election. The main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) has remained as the second largest party since 2002, observing a centre-left social democratic and Kemalist ideology. The Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) observes a Turkish nationalist ideology and has maintained third party status in Parliament since the 2007 general election. The Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) was founded in 2012 and originates from the left-wing Peoples' Democratic Congress. It is largely seen as a pro-Kurdish party and maintains an ideology of minority rights and anti-capitalism. All four parties surpassed the 10% election threshold in the June 2015 general election and won representation in Parliament, with no party winning a majority to govern alone. Smaller parties include the Islamist Felicity Party (SP), the left-wing nationalist Patriotic Party (VP), the centrist Independent Turkey Party (BTP) and the social democratic Democratic Left Party (DSP), though neither party managed to command a significant amount of support in previous elections.

June 2015 election

Elections were held on 7 June 2015 in order to elect the 25th Parliament of Turkey, following the expiry of the 24th Parliament's four-year term. Suffering a 9% decrease in their vote share, the governing AKP won 258 out of the 550 seats, 18 seats short of a majority. The CHP also suffered a slight decrease in their vote and seat share, winning 132 seats. The MHP and the HDP both won 80 seats, with the HDP managing to surpass the 10% election threshold despite concerns that it could fall below the boundary. The election resulted in the first hung parliament since the 1999 general election. The election result immediately raised speculation over an early general election.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan invited AKP leader Ahmet Davutoğlu to form a government on 9 July 2015, by virtue of leading the largest party in Parliament. If a government was not formed within 45 days (until 23 August 2015), then Erdoğan reserved the right to either extend the 45-day period or call an early election.

Coalition negotiations After being asked to form a government by virtue of leading the largest party in Parliament, AKP leader Ahmet Davutoğlu held talks with the leaders of the three opposition parties. With the HDP refusing to join a coalition with the AKP and the MHP preferring to remain in opposition, Davutoğlu entered extended negotiations with the main opposition CHP over a possible grand coalition deal. After 35 hours of negotiations spanning over 10 days, negotiations broke down after CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu claimed that Davutoğlu had only offered the CHP a role in a three-month government followed by early elections. The CHP had previously made it a condition that any coalition deal should last for four years, the entire duration of the parliamentary term.

Stating that early elections were the most likely possibility, Davutoğlu requested a meeting with MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli in a last-ditch attempt to form an AKP-MHP coalition. Bahçeli had previously announced his support for an early election, but later put forward four non-negotiable conditions for a possible coalition after a breakout of violence in the predominantly Kurdish south-eastern region of Turkey. The meeting between the AKP and the MHP ended without agreement, after which Davutoğlu returned the mandate to form a government back to the president on 18 August. In what was branded a 'civilian coup' by the CHP, Erdoğan refused to invite Kılıçdaroğlu to form a government as is required by the Constitution, despite the fact that there was still five days left before the 45-day period ended. Instead, Erdoğan announced his intention to call an early election on 21 August, finalising his decision on 24 August.

Early election The prospect for an early election arose as early as the eve of the previous election on 7 June 2015, as soon as it emerged that the AKP had lost its majority. The speculation was aided by the political polarisation in Turkey, which was perceived to have made it difficult for two parties to come together in a coalition. Even in the event of a coalition, it was deemed unlikely that two parties could maintain an agreement for the length of the parliament, making an early election before the required date of June 2019 highly likely. During his speech on election night, MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli stated that his party was ready for an early election.

It was widely observed by media commentators and opposition politicians that a vast majority of AKP politicians were in favour of going into an early election rather than forming a coalition government. President Erdoğan, the founder and former leader of the AKP, was widely seen to have observed a similar attitude. MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli and many other opposition politicians criticised Erdoğan for interfering and allegedly attempting to tamper with the coalition efforts in order to force an early vote. Polls also showed that a clear majority of AKP voters favoured an early election, though supporters of opposition parties were shown to have preferred a coalition. The leader of the AKP's coalition negotiation team Ömer Çelik was also seen as a proponent for an early election rather than a coalition, with Davutoğlu allegedly attempting but failing to remove him from his role due to his close relations with President Erdoğan.

During the coalition negotiations, reports that the AKP were preparing for an early election resulted in numerous suggestions for possible polling dates, with the most likely (and eventually confirmed) option being in November 2015. Other possible dates included Spring 2016, though AKP politicians claimed that elections could have been held as early as October 2015. Speculation on the date resulted in Sadi Güven, the president of the Supreme Electoral Council of Turkey (YSK), stating that the YSK was prepared for an early election and had organised an election within 63 days in the past. He stated that unless 9th article of the Parliamentary Elections Law was invoked, the most likely date for an early election would be the first Sunday after 90 days from President Erdoğan's decision to call a snap election. Invoking the 9th article of the Parliamentary Elections Law could bring the date forward. The YSK later issued a decision confirming that there were legal grounds for shortening the 90-day election timeline, after which they proposed to shorten the three-month period to two months and hold fresh elections on 1 November. This date was later confirmed after Erdoğan called for early elections on 24 August.

Erdoğan's decision for the date to be set for 1 November 2015 was ridiculed by opposition commentators since it would be the 93rd anniversary of the abolition of the Ottoman sultanate, which was deemed ironic due to what the opposition called Erdoğan's perceived 'desires' to become a sultan through implementing a presidential system.

This election will be the 7th early election called in the history of Turkish multi-party politics, with the previous 6 occurring in 1957, 1987, 1991, 1995, 1999 and 2002. It was observed that in every early election called, the governing party had always suffered a fall in their vote share. The 2007 general election was also technically an early election, being called four months early after Parliament failed to elect a President, resulting in a more than 10-point increase in the AKP's share of the vote.

Interim election government

The November 2015 election is the first to be overseen by an interim election government, which must be formed in the event that the president calls an early vote if a government cannot be formed. With the June 2015 election being the only election after which politicians were unable to form a government, this is the first time the constitutional provision requiring an interim election government has been enacted. Serving Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu was tasked with forming the interim government on 25 August 2015, a day after Erdoğan announced the snap poll.