This article describes the likely or potential target seats at the United Kingdom general election of 2015 that was held on 7 May 2015.
In January 2013, Labour published its list of 106 target seats for the next election. UKIP's list of 12 target seats was reported in August 2014, and others external to UKIP have highlighted seats where UKIP may be strongest. A list of Conservative non-target seats was deduced in February 2015. The Green Party of England & Wales describe having 12 target constituencies, including their one current seat.
Below are the most marginal seats listed by the party in second for those parties which won seats at the 2005 or 2010 general elections, ranked by the percentage swing required. These may not be the seats where parties choose to target their resources. Opinion polling in individual constituencies is also another indicator for possible target seats.
List by party
Conservative Conservative target seatsRank ConstituencyWinning party 2010SwingrequiredWinning party 20151Hampstead and Kilburn 0.04% 2Bolton West 0.10% 3Solihull 0.16% 4Southampton Itchen 0.22% 5Mid Dorset and North Poole 0.29% 6Wirral South 0.66% 7Derby North 0.68% 8Wells 0.72% 9Dudley North 0.84% 10Great Grimsby 1.08% 11Morley and Outwood 1.13% 12Telford 1.19% 13Walsall North 1.37% 14St Austell and Newquay 1.39% 15Somerton and Frome 1.50% 16Birmingham Edgbaston 1.54% 17Sutton and Cheam 1.66% 18Halifax 1.69% 19Newcastle-under-Lyme 1.80% 20Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland 1.82% 21Wakefield 1.82% 22St. Ives 1.87% 23Plymouth Moor View 1.91% 24Gedling 1.93% 25Eltham 1.98% 26Walsall South 2.15% 27Nottingham South 2.17%
Labour Labour target seatsRank ConstituencyWinning party 2010SwingrequiredWinning party 20151North Warwickshire 0.05% 2Thurrock 0.10% 3Hendon 0.12% 4Cardiff North 0.20% 5Sherwood 0.22% 6Norwich South 0.32% 7Stockton South 0.33% 8Broxtowe 0.37% 9Lancaster and Fleetwood 0.39% 10Bradford East 0.45% 11Amber Valley 0.58% 12Waveney 0.75% 13Wolverhampton South West 0.85% 14Morecambe and Lunesdale 1.00% 15Carlisle 1.01% 16Stroud 1.12% 17Weaver Vale 1.13% 18Lincoln 1.16% 19Brighton Pavilion 1.21% 20Plymouth Sutton and Devonport 1.31% 21Dewsbury 1.41% 22Warrington South 1.42% 23Brent Central 1.48% 24Bedford 1.50% 25Brighton Kemptown 1.56% 26Pudsey 1.69% 27Brentford and Isleworth 1.82%
Liberal Democrats Liberal Democrats target seatsRank ConstituencyWinning party 2010SwingrequiredWinning party 20151Camborne and Redruth 0.08% 2Oldham East and SaddleworthAs compared to the 2010 general election result, not the 2011 by-election result. 0.12% 3Oxford West and Abingdon 0.16% 4Ashfield 0.20% 5Sheffield Central 0.20% 6Edinburgh South 0.36% 7Truro and Falmouth 0.45% 8Newton Abbot 0.55% 9Chesterfield 0.60% 10Swansea West 0.71% 11Kingston upon Hull North 0.96% 12Rochdale 0.97% 13Harrogate and Knaresborough 0.98% 14Watford 1.29% 15Hampstead and Kilburn 1.51% 16Montgomeryshire 1.75% 17Edinburgh North and Leith 1.82% 18St. Albans 2.19% 19Newport East 2.39% 20Weston-super-Mare 2.56% 21Hereford and Herefordshire South 2.57% 22Torridge and West Devon 2.68% 23Winchester 2.73% 24Northampton North 3.09% 25South East Cornwall 3.25% 26Bristol North West 3.25% 27City of Durham 3.32%
SNP SNP target seatsRank ConstituencyWinning party 2010SwingrequiredWinning party 20151Ochil and South Perthshire 5.14%
Plaid Cymru Plaid Cymru target seatsRank ConstituencyWinning party 2010SwingrequiredWinning party 20151Ynys Môn 3.55%Labour Labour
Green Party Green Party target seatsRank ConstituencyWinning party 2010SwingrequiredWinning party 20151Norwich South 7.20%Labour Labour
Respect Party Respect Party target seatsRank ConstituencyWinning party 2010SwingrequiredWinning party 20151Birmingham Hall Green 3.9%Labour Labour
Northern Ireland Sinn Féin targets Swing required SDLP targets Swing required DUP targets Swing required Alliance targets Swing required 1 Belfast North (DUP)3.01% Newry and Armagh (SF)9.3% Belfast East (Alliance)2.22% Belfast South (SDLP)15.00%
Notes
References
See also
List of marginal seats before the 2024 United Kingdom general election List of marginal seats before the 2019 United Kingdom general election List of marginal seats before the 2017 United Kingdom general election