2019 New South Wales state election

The 2019 New South Wales state election was held on Saturday 23 March 2019 to elect the 57th Parliament of New South Wales, including all 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly and 21 of the 42 seats in the Legislative Council. The election was conducted by the New South Wales Electoral Commission (NSWEC).

The two-term incumbent Liberal/National Coalition Government led by Premier Gladys Berejiklian and Deputy Premier John Barilaro was re-elected to a third four-year term with a reduced majority in the Legislative Assembly, where government is formed. The main Opposition Labor Party under Michael Daley won an increased share of the vote in most districts, though the party was unable to successfully gain support in key marginal electorates. Minor parties the Greens and the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party, as well as several independent MPs, also contested the election.

The Coalition won 48 seats (35 Liberal, 13 National), suffering a loss of four seats from the preceding election and providing the incumbent government with a slim three-seat majority. The Labor Party won 36 seats, an increase of two seats. Labor, and to a larger extent the Coalition, both suffered primary vote swings against them. Minor parties the Greens and the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers each won three seats, and they were joined on the crossbench by three independents.

In the Legislative Council, 21 seats were up for election. The Coalition won eight seats, Labor seven, the Greens and One Nation each picked up two seats, whilst the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party and Animal Justice Party claimed one seat each. One Nation's lead candidate Mark Latham, who led the Labor Party to defeat at the 2004 federal election, was elected to the Council. In total the Coalition held 17 seats, Labor 14 and crossbenchers of other parties held 11. The result left the Berejiklian Government needing at least five votes to pass legislation, down from the two they needed in the previous Council.

It was the first time that the Coalition won a third consecutive term in office in New South Wales since the 1971 state election. Berejiklian became the first woman to lead a party to a state election victory in New South Wales, as well as the third woman to lead a party to a victory at a state election in Australia (after Queensland's Anna Bligh and Annastacia Palaszczuk) and the first non-Labor woman to do so.

Daley had initially indicated that he would stay on as leader despite the loss. However, facing the prospect of a leadership spill, Daley announced several days after the election that he would stand down as leader and not contest a subsequent leadership election, to be held after the federal election in May. Deputy leader Penny Sharpe served as interim leader of the party in the intervening period. That leadership election was subsequently held, and Strathfield MP Jodi McKay was elected as Labor Party Leader, against Kogarah MP Chris Minns.

New South Wales has compulsory voting, with optional preferential voting in single-member seats for the lower house and single transferable vote with optional preferential above-the-line voting in the proportionally represented upper house.

Results ABC election analyst Antony Green called the election for the Coalition at about 8:15pm, over two hours after the 6:00pm close of polling booths. However, it took a further two full days of official vote counting by the electoral commission before the ABC election computer was able to project that the Coalition had retained majority government. Legislative Assembly

+ Legislative Assembly (IRV) – (CV)... Party Votes % Swing Seats Change     Liberal 1,456,010 31.99 −3.10 35 1   National 436,806 9.60 −0.95 13 3 Coalition total1,892,81641.58−4.0548 4   Labor 1,516,143 33.31 −0.77 36 2   Greens 435,401 9.57 −0.72 3   Shooters, Fishers and Farmers 157,636 3.46 New 3 2   Sustainable Australia 69,831 1.53 New 0   Keep Sydney Open 69,076 1.52 New 0   Animal Justice 68,802 1.51 +1.39 0   One Nation 49,948 1.10 New 0   Christian Democratic 36,575 0.80 −2.31 0   Conservatives 22,590 0.50 New 0  Liberal Democrats 10,530 0.23 New 0   Small Business 3,355 0.07 New 0   Socialist Alliance 1,208 0.03 −0.00 0   Flux 698 0.02 New 0   Independents 217,277 4.77 +0.43 3  Formal votes 4,551,886 96.54 – – –  Informal votes 162,897 3.46 – – –  Total 4,714,783 100 – 93 –  Registered voters / turnout 5,271,775 89.43 – – – Two-party-preferred vote   Coalition 2,053,185 52.02 −2.30 – –   Labor 1,893,618 47.98 +2.30 – – Compared with results from 2015 election.

+Seats changing hands Seat 2015 election Swing 2019 election Party Member Margin Margin Member Party Barwon National Kevin Humphries 12.88 19.49 6.60 Roy Butler SFF Coogee Liberal Bruce Notley-Smith 2.92 4.56 1.64 Marjorie O'Neill Labor Lismore National Thomas George 0.23 1.57 1.35 Janelle Saffin Labor Murray National Austin Evans 22.65* 26.19 3.54 Helen Dalton SFF*At the 2017 Murray by-election, while the Nationals retained the seat on a 3.3-point margindespite a very large swing, their 22.7-point margin in 2015 is used for swing calculations.Note: At the 2016 Orange and 2018 Wagga Wagga by-elections, the remaining two of the six total seatslost by the Coalition since 2015 occurred from even larger swings, both won by two new crossbenchers.

Post-election pendulum Government seatsMarginalEast HillsWendy LindsayLIB v ALP0.5PenrithStuart AyresLIB v ALP1.3DubboDugald SaundersNAT v IND2.0Upper HunterMichael JohnsenNAT v ALP2.6HolsworthyMelanie GibbonsLIB v ALP3.3GoulburnWendy TuckermanLIB v ALP3.5TweedGeoff ProvestNAT v ALP5.0HeathcoteLee EvansLIB v ALP5.0WollondillyNathaniel SmithLIB v IND5.5Fairly safeRiverstoneKevin ConollyLIB v ALP6.3Seven HillsMark TaylorLIB v ALP6.4BegaAndrew ConstanceLIB v ALP6.9CamdenPeter SidgreavesLIB v ALP7.6RydeVictor DominelloLIB v ALP9.0Myall LakesStephen BromheadNAT v ALP9.2SafeCoffs HarbourGurmesh SinghNAT v IND10.3OatleyMark CoureLIB v ALP10.5ParramattaGeoff LeeLIB v ALP10.6South CoastShelley HancockLIB v ALP10.6North ShoreFelicity WilsonLIB v IND11.1MulgoaTanya DaviesLIB v ALP11.3MonaroJohn BarilaroNAT v ALP11.6KiamaGareth WardLIB v ALP12.0TerrigalAdam CrouchLIB v ALP12.3EppingDominic PerrottetLIB v ALP12.4ManlyJames GriffinLIB v GRN12.9Lane CoveAnthony RobertsLIB v ALP14.3ClarenceChris GulaptisNAT v ALP14.5MirandaEleni PetinosLIB v ALP14.6OxleyMelinda PaveyNAT v ALP14.9DrummoyneJohn SidotiLIB v ALP15.0AlburyJustin ClancyLIB v ALP16.0HornsbyMatt KeanLIB v ALP16.3HawkesburyRobyn PrestonLIB v ALP17.5BathurstPaul TooleNAT v ALP17.9Baulkham HillsDavid ElliottLIB v ALP18.7VaucluseGabrielle UptonLIB v GRN19.3CronullaMark SpeakmanLIB v ALP19.6Very safePort MacquarieLeslie WilliamsNAT v ALP20.3Ku-ring-gaiAlister HenskensLIB v ALP20.5PittwaterRob StokesLIB v GRN20.8WilloughbyGladys BerejiklianLIB v ALP21.0WakehurstBrad HazzardLIB v ALP21.0TamworthKevin AndersonNAT v IND21.1Castle HillRay WilliamsLIB v ALP24.7DavidsonJonathan O'DeaLIB v GRN25.2CootamundraSteph CookeNAT v ALP27.1Northern TablelandsAdam MarshallNAT v ALP32.8

Non-government seats MarginalLismoreJanelle SaffinALP v NAT1.3CoogeeMarjorie O'NeillALP v LIB1.6KogarahChris MinnsALP v LIB1.8StrathfieldJodi McKayALP v LIB5.0The EntranceDavid MehanALP v LIB5.2Port StephensKate WashingtonALP v LIB5.7Fairly safeLondonderryPrue CarALP v LIB6.5GosfordLiesl TeschALP v LIB7.3GranvilleJulia FinnALP v LIB7.6MaroubraMichael DaleyALP v LIB8.5AuburnLynda VoltzALP v LIB9.1RockdaleSteve KamperALP v LIB9.5SafeSwanseaYasmin CatleyALP v LIB10.6ProspectHugh McDermottALP v LIB10.7WyongDavid HarrisALP v LIB12.4CharlestownJodie HarrisonALP v LIB12.4CabramattaNick LalichALP v IND12.9CanterburySophie CotsisALP v LIB13.0MaitlandJenny AitchisonALP v LIB13.2BankstownTania MihailukALP v LIB13.8Macquarie FieldsAnoulack ChanthivongALP v LIB14.8Blue MountainsTrish DoyleALP v LIB14.9HeffronRon HoenigALP v LIB15.1Mount DruittEdmond AtallaALP v LIB16.4LiverpoolPaul LynchALP v LIB16.7CampbelltownGreg WarrenALP v LIB17.0BlacktownStephen BaliALP v LIB17.7NewcastleTim CrakanthorpALP v LIB17.7FairfieldGuy ZangariALP v LIB17.9ShellharbourAnna WatsonALP v LIB18.3CessnockClayton BarrALP v NAT19.3KeiraRyan ParkALP v LIB19.7Very safeWollongongPaul ScullyALP v LIB21.4Summer HillJo HaylenALP v LIB22.3LakembaJihad DibALP v LIB22.4WallsendSonia HorneryALP v LIB25.4Crossbench seatsMurrayHelen DaltonSFF v NAT3.5BallinaTamara SmithGRN v NAT5.4BarwonRoy ButlerSFF v NAT6.6BalmainJamie ParkerGRN v ALP10.0SydneyAlex GreenwichIND v LNP11.8NewtownJenny LeongGRN v ALP13.8OrangePhilip DonatoSFF v NAT15.2Wagga WaggaJoe McGirrIND v NAT15.5Lake MacquarieGreg PiperIND v ALP22.1

Legislative Council

+Legislative Council (STV) – Quota 202,325 – (CV) Party Votes % Swing 2019 seats 2015 seats Total seats Change     Liberal/National joint ticket 1,530,542 34.39 −7.91 – – – –   Liberal 16,117 0.37 +0.10 5 6 11 2   National 3,092 0.06 +0.00 3 3 6 1 Coalition total 1,549,751 34.82 −7.80 8 9 17 3   Labor 1,321,449 29.69 −1.40 7 7 14 2   Greens 432,999 9.73 −0.19 2 2 4 1   One Nation 306,933 6.90 New 2 0 2 2   Shooters, Fishers and Farmers 246,477 5.54 +1.65 1 1 2   Christian Democratic 101,328 2.28 −0.65 0 1 1 1   Liberal Democrats 96,999 2.18 New 0 0 0   Animal Justice 86,713 1.95 +0.17 1 1 2 1   Keep Sydney Open 81,508 1.83 New 0 0 0   Sustainable Australia 65,102 1.46 New 0 0 0   Voluntary Euthanasia 46,971 1.06 +0.11 0 0 0   Small Business 30,409 0.68 New 0 0 0   Conservatives 26,303 0.59 New 0 0 0   Flux 16,212 0.36 New 0 0 0   Socialist Alliance 13,194 0.32 +0.12 0 0 0   Group L 11,793 0.26New 0 0 0   Group G 6,543 0.15 New 0 0 0   Advance Australia 3,928 0.09 −0.84 0 0 0   Group S 3,207 0.07 New 0 0 0   Group H 322 0.01 New 0 0 0   Ungrouped 2,005 0.05 +0.02 0 0 0  Formal votes 4,451,146 93.65 – – – – –  Informal votes 301,681 6.35 – – – – – Total 4,752,827 100 – 21 21 42 –  Registered voters / turnout 5,271,775 90.16 – – – – –

Background

Lower house and by-elections

At the 2015 election, the Coalition retained government with a reduced majority of 54 seats from 69 seats in the 2011 election. In the course of the previous parliamentary term, the Coalition had been reduced to 61 seats due to ICAC proceedings that resulted in the departure of eight MPs from the Liberal Party. The Labor Party gained 11 seats at the election, for a total of 34 seats. The Greens gained a record three seats whilst independents Greg Piper and Alex Greenwich both retained their seats.

Several by-elections were held after the 2015 election. In most of these, the party holding the seat did not change. There were two exceptions to this. In the 2016 Orange by-election, Philip Donato of the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party won the seat, previously held by the Nationals. In the 2018 Wagga Wagga by-election, independent candidate Joe McGirr won the seat, previously held by the Liberal Party.

Upper house The 2015 election saw the incumbent Liberal/National coalition gain one seat in the Legislative Council to have a total of 20 seats, despite a 5.1-point swing against them. The Labor Party lost two seats, bringing their total down to 12; the Greens, Shooters and Fishers, and Christian Democrats saw no gains or losses in the election: these parties won five seats, two seats and two seats, respectively. The only gain came from the Animal Justice Party.

Campaign