A regional election was held in the Community of Madrid on 27 May 2007 to elect the 8th Assembly of the autonomous community. All 120 seats in the Assembly were up for election. It was held concurrently with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all across Spain. Because regional elections in Madrid were mandated for the fourth Sunday of May every four years, the October 2003 snap election did not alter the term of the four-year legislature starting in May 2003.
Esperanza Aguirre was re-elected for a second term in office, with the People's Party (PP) winning a record absolute majority comprising almost 56% of the seats in the Assembly. The Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) obtained one of the worst party results since 1995, resulting in Rafael Simancas resigning as Secretary-General of the Socialist Party of Madrid shortly thereafter. United Left (IU) continued on its rising trend and won 2 additional seats.
Overview Under the 1983 Statute of Autonomy, the Assembly of Madrid was the unicameral legislature of the homonymous autonomous community, having legislative power in devolved matters, as well as the ability to grant or withdraw confidence from a regional president.. The electoral and procedural rules were supplemented by national law provisions..
Date The term of the Assembly of Madrid expired four years after the date of its previous ordinary election, with election day being fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The election decree was required to be issued no later than 54 days before the scheduled election date and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Community of Madrid (BOCM).; . The previous ordinary election was held on 25 May 2003, setting the date for election day on the fourth Sunday of May four years later, which was 27 May 2007.
The regional president had the prerogative to dissolve the Assembly of Madrid at any given time and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election had been called and that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or during the last year of parliament before its planned expiration, nor before one year after a previous one.; . In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Assembly was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called, which was to be held on the first Sunday 54 days after the call.; . Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances did not alter the date of the chamber's next ordinary election, with elected lawmakers serving the remainder of its original four-year term.; .
The election to the Assembly of Madrid was officially called on 3 April 2007 with the publication of the corresponding decree in the BOCM, setting election day for 27 May and scheduling for the chamber to reconvene on 12 June..
Electoral system Voting for the Assembly was based on universal suffrage, comprising all Spanish nationals over 18 years of age, registered in the Community of Madrid and with full political rights, provided that they had not been deprived of the right to vote by a final sentence, nor were legally incapacitated.; ( by ).
The Assembly of Madrid had one seat per 50,000 inhabitants or fraction above 25,000. All were elected in a single multi-member constituency—corresponding to the autonomous community's territory—using the D'Hondt method and closed-list proportional voting, with a five percent-threshold of valid votes (including blank ballots) regionally.; . As a result of the aforementioned allocation, the Assembly was entitled to 120 seats, based on the official population figures resulting from the latest revision of the municipal register (as of 1 January 2006)..
The law did not provide for by-elections to fill vacant seats; instead, any vacancies arising after the proclamation of candidates and during the legislative term were filled by the next candidates on the party lists or, when required, by designated substitutes. ( by ).
Outgoing parliament The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the time of the election call.
+ Parliamentary composition in April 2007 Groups Parties Legislators Seats Total People's Parliamentary Group PP 57 57 Socialist Parliamentary Group PSOE 45 45 United Left Parliamentary Group IUCM 9 9
Parties and candidates The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, alliances and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form an alliance were required to inform the relevant electoral commission within 10 days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least 0.5 percent of the electorate in the Community of Madrid, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list. ( by ). Amendments earlier in 2007 required a balanced composition of men and women in the electoral lists, so that candidates of either sex made up at least 40 percent of the total composition..
Below is a list of the main parties and alliances which contested the election:
Candidacy Parties andalliances Leading candidate Ideology Previous result Vote % Seats PP Esperanza Aguirre ConservatismChristian democracy 48.5% PSOE Rafael Simancas Social democracy 39.0% IUCM Inés Sabanés SocialismCommunism 8.5%
Campaign Debates + 2007 Madrilenian regional election debates Date Organizer(s) Moderator(s) PP PSOE IUCM Audience 11 May Telemadrid Víctor Arribas 13.8%
Opinion polls The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.
Voting intention estimates The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 61 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Assembly of Madrid (56 in the October 2003 election).
Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout Lead 2007 regional election 27 May 2007 67.3 53.3 33.6 8.9 19.7 Ipsos/RTVE–FORTA 27 May 2007?? 50.5 35.1 9.0 15.4 Opina/El País 14–17 May 2007?? 51.0 38.5 8.0 12.5 Metroscopia/ABC 14–16 May 2007 1,211 65–70 52.5 35.3 7.8 17.2 Celeste-Tel/Terra 9–15 May 2007?? 53.3 35.2 7.7 18.1 Noxa/La Vanguardia 7–15 May 2007 800? 52.3 35.7 9.3 16.6 TNS Demoscopia/Antena 3 9 May 2007?????? Sigma Dos/El Mundo 27 Apr–8 May 2007 800? 52.7 35.8 7.2 16.9 Opina/Cadena SER 6 May 2007 600? 53.0 38.2 7.8 14.8 CIS 9 Apr–6 May 2007 1,178? 51.2 35.6 8.5 15.6 Metroscopia/CEIM 12 Feb–1 Mar 2007 2,056? 51.7 36.6 8.3 15.1 Sigma Dos/PP 14–25 Feb 2007 2,000? 52.8 34.5 8.4 18.3 Iberconsulta/La Razón 15 Jan 2007? 61.8 53.4 35.5 7.6 17.9 Sigma Dos/El Mundo 16–21 Nov 2006 600? 55.4 33.8 5.6 21.6 Iberconsulta/La Razón 17 Sep 2006?? 50.6 35.6? 15.0 Opina/El País 26 Apr 2006 1,000? 50.0 40.0 7.0 10.0 PP 12 Dec 2005 8,000? 51.0? 7.5? Synovate/PSOE 15 May 2005 2,625? 45.1 44.5 9.0 0.6 Sigma Dos/El Mundo 28 Feb 2005?????? 2004 EP election 13 Jun 2004 49.2 49.5 42.9 5.1 6.6 2004 general election 14 Mar 2004 78.9 45.0 44.1 6.4 0.9 October 2003 regional election 26 Oct 2003 62.5 48.5 39.0 8.5 9.5
Voting preferences The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.
Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Lead 2007 regional election 27 May 2007 36.5 22.9 6.1 31.7 13.6 CIS 9 Apr–6 May 2007 1,178 32.3 24.4 5.0 27.3 6.7 7.9 IMOP/PSOE 12–20 Jul 2006 4,442 39.3 35.5 7.7 – – 3.8 2004 EP election 13 Jun 2004 24.9 21.5 2.6 49.8 3.4 2004 general election 14 Mar 2004 36.1 35.5 5.2 19.3 0.6 October 2003 regional election 26 Oct 2003 30.9 24.8 5.4 36.0 6.1
Victory preferences The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.
Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Other/None Lead Opina/El País 14–17 May 2007? 43.4 32.3 – – – 11.1 Noxa/La Vanguardia 7–15 May 2007 800 48.0 34.0 7.0 11.0 14.0 Opina/Cadena SER 6 May 2007 600 42.8 33.1 4.8 6.9 12.4 9.7 CIS 9 Apr–6 May 2007 1,178 38.1 31.2 6.1 8.2 16.4 6.9
Victory likelihood The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.
Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Other/None Lead Noxa/La Vanguardia 7–15 May 2007 800 72.0 15.0 – 13.0 57.0 Opina/Cadena SER 6 May 2007 600 66.7 12.4 0.4 – 20.5 54.3 CIS 9 Apr–6 May 2007 1,178 62.8 13.4 0.1 0.8 23.0 49.4
Preferred President The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Community of Madrid.
Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Other/None/Notcare Lead Noxa/La Vanguardia 7–15 May 2007 800 50.0 23.0 – 8.0 13.0 6.0 27.0 Opina/Cadena SER 6 May 2007 600 46.8 28.2 – 7.7 7.3 10.0 18.6 CIS 9 Apr–6 May 2007 1,178 40.2 25.2 – 7.8 3.8 26.8 15.0 Opina/El País 26 Apr 2006 1,000 41.3 30.6 6.4 – 8.7 13.0 10.7
Predicted President The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood for each leader to become president.
Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Other/None/Notcare Lead Opina/El País 14–17 May 2007? 79.6 – – – –? Noxa/La Vanguardia 7–15 May 2007 800 78.0 13.0 – – – 9.0 65.0 Opina/Cadena SER 6 May 2007 600 74.3 12.8 – 0.9 0.5 11.5 61.5 Opina/El País 26 Apr 2006 1,000 55.6 20.9 1.9 – 0.7 20.9 34.7
Results Overall + ← Summary of the 27 May 2007 Assembly of Madrid election results → Parties and alliances Popular vote Seats Votes % ±pp Total +/− People's Party (PP) 1,592,162 53.29 +4.81 67 +10 Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) 1,002,862 33.57 −5.43 42 −3 United Left of the Community of Madrid (IUCM) 264,782 8.86 +0.36 11 +2 The Greens (LV, LVM, LVCM, LV–GV)1 33,044 1.11 +0.14 0 ±0 Anti-Bullfighting Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA) 6,877 0.23 New 0 ±0 Spanish Alternative (AES) 5,039 0.17 New 0 ±0 For a Fairer World (PUM+J) 5,024 0.17 New 0 ±0 Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE) 4,231 0.14 +0.07 0 ±0 National Democracy (DN) 3,518 0.12 −0.01 0 ±0 Spanish Phalanx of the CNSO (FE–JONS) 3,123 0.10 +0.03 0 ±0 The Phalanx (FE) 2,675 0.09 +0.01 0 ±0 Citizen Unity (UC) 2,099 0.07 +0.04 0 ±0 Madrid is Castile (MEC) 2,074 0.07 New 0 ±0 Spanish Democratic Centre (CDEs) 1,816 0.06 New 0 ±0 Humanist Party (PH) 1,757 0.06 +0.01 0 ±0 Madrid First (PM) 1,667 0.06 +0.01 0 ±0 Union for Leganés (ULEG) 1,422 0.05 New 0 ±0 Liberal Centrist Union (UCL) 1,335 0.04 New 0 ±0 Democratic Innovation (ID) 574 0.02 New 0 ±0 Save Telemadrid Party (PSTM) 0 0.00 New 0 ±0 Blank ballots 51,665 1.73 −0.01 Total 2,987,746 120 +9 Valid votes 2,987,746 99.55 −0.06 Invalid votes 13,454 0.45 +0.06 Votes cast / turnout 3,001,200 67.31 +4.73 Abstentions 1,457,789 32.69 −4.73 Registered voters 4,458,989 Sources
Elected legislators The following table lists the elected legislators sorted by order of election: