Opinion polling for the 2012 Hong Kong legislative election

This article presents detailed opinion polling for the 2012 Hong Kong legislative election.

Overall poll results Overall poll results each party in geographical constituencies according to each constituency.

Poll sourceSample sizeDates administeredDABDPCPLSDFTULPLabPPNPPOthersLead Election result9 Sep 2012 20.2% 13.7% 14.1% 4.9% 7.1% 2.7% 6.2% 9.7% 3.8% 17.6% 6.1%Cable TV/HKUPOP 3,457 3–7 Sep 2012 20% 15% 15% 6% 6% 3% 6% 11% 4% 18% 5%now TV/HKUPOP 1,992 3–7 Sep 2012 19%15%15%6%6%3%6%11%4%16% 4%now TV/HKUPOP 1,888 2–6 Sep 2012 18% 14% 15% 6% 6% 3% 5% 11% 5% 16% 3%Cable TV/HKUPOP 3,241 2–6 Sep 2012 18% 14% 15% 6% 6% 3% 6% 11% 4% 17% 3%Cable TV/HKUPOP 3,182 1–5 Sep 2012 18% 14% 16% 5% 7% 3% 6% 11% 4% 16% 2%now TV/HKUPOP 1,851 31 Aug–4 Sep 2012 18% 14% 16% 5% 7% 3% 6% 11% 4% 16% 2%Cable TV/HKUPOP 3,122 31 Aug–4 Sep 2012 19% 15% 15% 5% 6% 3% 6% 11% 4% 17% 4% 3,070 30 Aug–3 Sep 2012 18% 14% 14% 6% 6% 3% 6% 11% 5% 18% 4%now TV/HKUPOP 1,836 30 Aug–3 Sep 2012 19% 14% 14% 5% 6% 4% 6% 11% 5% 16% 5%now TV/HKUPOP 1,730 29 Aug–2 Sep 2012 19% 14% 14% 6% 6% 4% 6% 11% 5% 16% 5% 2,920 29 Aug–2 Sep 2012 19% 14% 14% 6% 6% 4% 6% 11% 5% 16% 5%Cable TV/HKUPOP 2,828 28 Aug–1 Sep 2012 20% 14% 14% 6% 6% 4% 6% 11% 5% 15% 6%now TV/HKUPOP 1,665 28 Aug–1 Sep 2012 19% 14% 13% 5% 6% 4% 6% 11% 5% 17% 5%now TV/HKUPOP 1,598 27–31 Aug 2012 20% 14% 13% 6% 5% 4% 6% 11% 6% 17% 6%Cable TV/HKUPOP 2,735 27–31 Aug 2012 20% 13% 13% 6% 6% 4% 6% 11% 6% 14% 6% 2,536 26–30 Aug 2012 21% 14% 13% 6% 5% 4% 6% 10% 6% 15% 7%now TV/HKUPOP 1,495 26–30 Aug 2012 20% 14% 13% 6% 5% 4% 6% 10% 6% 16% 6%now TV/HKUPOP 1,379 25–29 Aug 2012 21% 12% 13% 6% 6% 4% 5% 10% 5% 18% 8% 2,334 25–29 Aug 2012 21% 13% 13% 6% 5% 4% 5% 10% 5% 17% 8% 2,225 24–28 Aug 2012 22% 12% 13% 5% 5% 4% 5% 11% 6% 16% 9%now TV/HKUPOP 1,311 24–28 Aug 2012 21% 12% 12% 5% 6% 4% 5% 11% 6% 17% 9%now TV/HKUPOP 1,239 23–27 Aug 2012 22% 12% 13% 5% 5% 4% 6% 11% 6% 16% 9%Cable TV/HKUPOP 2,144 23–27 Aug 2012 21% 12% 13% 5% 5% 4% 6% 11% 6% 17% 8%Cable TV/HKUPOP 2,044 22–26 Aug 2012 22% 11% 13% 5% 6% 4% 6% 10% 5% 17% 9%now TV/HKUPOP 1,184 22–26 Aug 2012 22% 11% 13% 5% 6% 4% 6% 11% 5% 17% 9%now TV/HKUPOP 1,187 21–25 Aug 2012 20% 12% 13% 5% 6% 4% 6% 11% 5% 18% 7% 2,061 21–25 Aug 2012 21% 11% 13% 5% 6% 4% 6% 11% 5% 17% 8%Cable TV/HKUPOP 2,024 20–24 Aug 2012 19% 13% 14% 5% 6% 3% 6% 10% 5% 18% 5%now TV/HKUPOP 1,197 20–24 Aug 2012 19% 13% 13% 5% 6% 4% 6% 11% 5% 18% 6%now TV/HKUPOP 1,226 19–23 Aug 2012 19% 14% 14% 5% 6% 4% 6% 10% 5% 18% 5%Cable TV/HKUPOP 1,996 19–23 Aug 2012 20%13% 14% 5% 6% 4% 7% 10% 5% 17% 6%Cable TV/HKUPOP 1,939 18–22 Aug 2012 20% 14% 14% 5% 6% 4% 6%10% 5% 17% 6%now TV/HKUPOP 1,218 18–22 Aug 2012 19% 15% 14% 4% 6% 4% 6% 10% 5% 18% 5%now TV/HKUPOP 1,298 17–21 Aug 2012 19% 15% 14% 4% 6% 4% 6% 10% 5% 17% 4%Cable TV/HKUPOP 1,886 17–21 Aug 2012 18% 15% 15% 4% 6% 4% 6% 9% 5% 17% 3% 1,666 16–20 Aug 2012 19% 16% 15% 5% 6% 4% 5% 9% 5% 16% 3%now TV/HKUPOP 1,135 16–20 Aug 2012 19% 16% 16% 4% 6% 4% 5% 9% 5% 16% 3%now TV/HKUPOP 1,220 15–19 Aug 2012 19% 16% 16% 5% 7% 4% 5% 8% 4% 16% 3% 1,776 15–19 Aug 2012 19% 16% 16% 4% 6% 4% 6% 8% 4% 17% 3%Cable TV/HKUPOP 1,670 14–18 Aug 2012 18% 15% 17% 4% 6% 4% 5% 9% 4% 19% 1%now TV/HKUPOP 1,122 14–18 Aug 2012 18% 15% 17% 4% 6% 4% 5% 9% 4% 19% 1%now TV/HKUPOP 1,221 13–17 Aug 2012 19% 16% 17% 5% 6% 4% 5% 9% 4% 16% 2%Cable TV/HKUPOP 1,752 13–17 Aug 2012 19% 15% 17% 4% 6% 4% 5% 9% 4% 17% 2%Cable TV/HKUPOP 1,669 12–16 Aug 2012 20% 16% 15% 5% 7% 4% 5% 9% 4% 15% 4%now TV/HKUPOP 1,145 12–16 Aug 2012 20% 16% 15% 5% 7% 4% 5% 9% 3% 16% 4%now TV/HKUPOP 1,298 11–15 Aug 2012 20% 17% 15% 4% 6% 4% 5% 9% 4% 16% 3%Cable TV/HKUPOP 1,717 11–15 Aug 2012 21% 17% 15% 4% 7% 4% 5% 9% 5% 13% 4%Cable TV/HKUPOP 1,558 10–14 Aug 2012 22%17% 14% 4% 6% 4% 5% 8% 5% 14% 5%now TV/HKUPOP 1,193 10–14 Aug 2012 22% 18% 15% 4% 6% 4% 5% 8%5% 14% 4%now TV/HKUPOP 1,203 9–13 Aug 2012 23% 17% 14% 4% 6% 4% 5% 7% 5% 15% 6%Cable TV/HKUPOP 1,545 9–13 Aug 2012 23% 18% 14% 4% 6% 3% 5% 7% 5% 15% 5% 1,477 8–12 Aug 2012 23% 16% 13% 4% 7% 4% 5% 7% 6% 15% 7%now TV/HKUPOP 1,147 8–12 Aug 2012 22% 17% 14% 4% 6% 4% 5% 7% 6% 14% 5%now TV/HKUPOP 1,190 7–11 Aug 2012 24% 15% 15% 5% 6% 3% 5% 7% 6% 14% 9%Cable TV/HKUPOP 1,380 6–10 Aug 2012 24% 14% 14% 6% 7% 3% 5% 9% 5% 14% 10%now TV/HKUPOP 1,088 6–10 Aug 2012 23% 15% 14% 5% 6% 3% 5% 7% 5% 16% 8%now TV/HKUPOP 1,115 5–9 Aug 2012 22% 13% 16% 6% 6% 4% 4% 7% 6% 17% 6%Cable TV/HKUPOP 1,368 5–9 Aug 2012 22% 13% 16% 6% 7% 4% 4% 7% 6% 15% 6%Cable TV/HKUPOPUnknown4–8 Aug 2012 22% 12% 16% 6% 7% 3% 5% 6% 7% 16% 6%now TV/HKUPOPUnknown4–8 Aug 2012 22% 12% 16% 6% 6% 4% 5% 7% 7% 15% 6%now TV/HKUPOPUnknown3–7 Aug 2012 22% 12% 17% 7% 7% 3% 4% 7% 6% 15% 5%Cable TV/HKUPOP 1,281 3–7 Aug 2012 22% 13% 17% 7% 7% 3% 4% 6% 6% 15% 5%Cable TV/HKUPOP 3,410 2–6 Aug 2012 21% 13% 16% 5% 7% 4% 5% 7% 6% 15% 5% 3,023 1–5 Aug 2012 21% 13% 15% 4% 7% 4% 6% 8% 5% 16% 6%now TV/HKUPOP 5,064 1–5 Aug 2012 18% 11% 13% 4% 5% 4% 6% 7% 6% 26% 5%HKRA 8,072 12–21 Jul 2012 19% 9% 9% 4% 4% 4% 6% 7% 8% 30% 10% Last election results 1,524,249 7 Sep 2008 22.9% 20.6% 13.7% 10.1% 5.7% 4.3% 22.7% 2.3%

Seat projection Seats gained by each party in geographical constituencies according to the opinion polling.

Poll sourceSample sizeDate(s)conductedDABDPCivFTULibPPLabLSDNPPOthersCampLead Election result1,815,4489 Sep94531331241Cable TV/HKUPOP3,2083–7 Sep85521521243 now TV/HKUPOP1,8683–7 Sep85521521243now TV/HKUPOP1,7602–6 Sep76521521245Cable TV/HKUPOP2,9351–5 Sep76531521235now TV/HKUPOP1,71331 Aug–4 Sep66621531239Cable TV/HKUPOP2,82130 Aug–3 Sep66621531239now TV/HKUPOP1,58229 Aug–2 Sep66531531239Cable TV/HKUPOP2,67929 Aug–2 Sep76521531239Cable TV/HKUPOP2,59928 Aug–1 Sep76521432239now TV/HKUPOP1,47627–31 Aug76431531237Cable TV/HKUPOP2,34326–30 Aug76521431249now TV/HKUPOP1,25425–29 Aug66432521245Cable TV/HKUPOP2,04224–28 Aug84431521253now TV/HKUPOP1,14323–27 Aug844315312431,86822–26 Aug82521531263now TV/HKUPOP1,09821–25 Aug82521531263Cable TV/HKUPOP1,84820–24 Aug74521531257 now TV/HKUPOP1,12119–23 Aug85521331255Cable TV/HKUPOP1,77318–22 Aug66521431259now TV/HKUPOP1,12417–21 Aug66521531249Cable TV/HKUPOP1,72417–21 Aug86521331245 now TV/HKUPOP1,07316–20 Aug75631231253Cable TV/HKUPOP1,62215–19 Aug75631421243 now TV/HKUPOP1,05714–18 Aug75631421243 now TV/HKUPOP1,04513–17 Aug56721431249Cable TV/HKUPOP1,60912–16 Aug75641431135now TV/HKUPOP1,11211–15 Aug77531331235Cable TV/HKUPOP1,49610–14 Aug87531331225now TV/HKUPOP1,0839–13 Aug 86541331223 Cable TV/HKUPOP1,4118–12 Aug76541231243now TV/HKUPOP1,0447–11 Aug 77531231245Cable TV/HKUPOP1,3116–10 Aug67431411265 now TV/HKUPOP9395–9 Aug65642211261Cable TV/HKUPOP1,2515–9 Aug66642211251Cable TV/HKUPOP1,2114–8 Aug66541321343 now TV/HKUPOPunknown3–7 Aug65541321263 Cable TV/HKUPOP1,1372–6 Aug66541231255 HKRA2,01812–21 July85521421251

Opinion polls by constituency Hong Kong Island Key: Pro-democrats secured; Pro-Beijing secured.

List №1 234567891011121314Undecided/Don't know/Won't votePoll sourceSamplesizeDates administeredHuiSin (DP)Lo (Ind)GH Lau (PP)Chung (DAB)WC Ng (Ind)SL Ho (Labour)Ip (NPP)Wong (FTU)Chan (Civic)KT HoTsang (DAB)KY Lau (Liberal)MY Ng (LSD) Election result9 Sep 20120.9%12.3%5.1%5.6%10.2%0.1%9.5%9.2%8.3%21.3%0.1%11.0%5.4%1.0%N/ACable TV/HKUPOP6343–7 Sep 2012<0.5%6%3%5%6%<0.5%6%6%4%12%<0.5%8%4%<0.5%40%now TV/HKUPOP3803–7 Sep 2012<0.5%10%6%8%10%1%10%10%7%19%<0.5%13%6%1%N/Anow TV/HKUPOP3632–6 Sep 20121%9%5%9%9%<0.5%8%13%7%21%<0.5%11%5%1%N/ACable TV/HKUPOP6002–6 Sep 2012<0.5%5%3%5%6%<0.5%5%7%4%13%<0.5%8%3%1%39%Cable TV/HKUPOP5761–5 Sep 2012<0.5%6%3%7%6%<0.87%5%7%4%13%<0.5%8%3%<0.5%36%now TV/HKUPOP34031 Aug–4 Sep 20121%10%4%11%7%<0.5%9%11%7%22%2 seats<0.5%13%5%1%N/ACable TV/HKUPOP54431 Aug–4 Sep 20121%6%2%7%4%<0.5%6%7%4%14%2 seats<0.5%8%3%<0.5%37%53530 Aug–3 Sep 2012<0.5%6%3%6%3%<0.5%5%8%4%13%2 seats<0.5%8%4%1%38%now TV/HKUPOP33330 Aug–3 Sep 20121%10%6%10%5%<0.5%8%13%6%21%2 seats<0.5%13%6%1%N/Anow TV/HKUPOP29929 Aug–2 Sep 20121%10%6%9%4%<0.5%7%14%7%19%<0.5%14%6%2%N/A48929 Aug–2 Sep 2012<0.5%6%4%6%3%<0.5%4%8%4%12%<0.5%9%4%1%38%Cable TV/HKUPOP45428 Aug–1 Sep 2012<0.5%6%4%5%3%<0.5%5%8%5%11%<0.5%11%4%1%38%now TV/HKUPOP28228 Aug–1 Sep 20121%10%7%8%5%<0.5%8%13%7%17%<0.5%17%6%1%N/Anow TV/HKUPOP27027–31 Aug 2012<0.5%9%7%8%5%<0.5%7%13%7%17%<0.5%17%6%2%N/ACable TV/HKUPOP43527–31 Aug 2012<0.5%5%4%5%3%<0.5%5%8%5%11%<0.5%11%4%1%38%41126–30 Aug 2012<0.5%7%5%4%4%<0.5%5%8%4%9%<0.5%11%4%3%38%now TV/HKUPOP25726–30 Aug 2012<0.5%11%8%6%6%<0.5%7%13%6%14%<0.5%18%6%5%N/Anow TV/HKUPOP24325–29 Aug 20121%10%5%7%7%<0.5%6%12%6%17%<0.5%18%6%5%N/A38625–29 Aug 2012<0.5%6%3%5%4%<0.5%4%7%4%10%<0.5%12%4%3%36%37424–28 Aug 2012<0.5%6%4%6%5%<0.5%4%8%3%11%<0.5%11%4%3%36%now TV/HKUPOP24324–28 Aug 20121%9%7%9%7%<0.5%6%12%6%16%<0.5%17%6%4%N/Anow TV/HKUPOP22423–27 Aug 20122%10%7%9%7%<0.5%7%11%5%16%<0.5%15%7%4%N/ACable TV/HKUPOP36123–27 Aug 20121%6%4%6%4%<0.5%4%7%3%10%<0.5%9%4%3%38%Cable TV/HKUPOP35122–26 Aug 20121%4%5%5%5%<0.5%5%7%4%9%<0.5%9%4%2%39%now TV/HKUPOP21122–26 Aug 20122%7%8%9%8%<0.5%8%11%6%16%<0.5%15%7%4%N/Anow TV/HKUPOP22121–25 Aug 20123%7%9%10%7%<0.5%9%12%7%16%<0.5%14%6%<0.5%N/A37221–25 Aug 20122%4%5%6%4%<0.5%5%7%4%9%<0.5%9%4%<0.5%41%Cable TV/HKUPOP36920–24 Aug 20121%6%6%6%4%<0.5%5%7%4%7%<0.5%9%3%<0.5%40%now TV/HKUPOP21920–24 Aug 20122%10%10%10%7%<0.5%8%12%7%13%<0.5%15%5%<0.5%N/Anow TV/HKUPOP22219–23 Aug 20122%12%8%8%9%<0.5%10%13%5%11%<0.5%15%6%<0.5%N/ACable TV/HKUPOP37319–23 Aug 20121%7%5%5%5%<0.5%6%8%3%7%<0.5%9%4%<0.5%40%Cable TV/HKUPOP34818–22 Aug 20121%8%6%5%5%<0.5%5%9%4%8%<0.5%9%4%1%37%now TV/HKUPOP22118–22 Aug 20121%12%9%8%8%<0.5%8%14%6%13%<0.5%14%6%1%N/Anow TV/HKUPOP20717–21 Aug 20121%14%7%8%6%<0.5%9%14%4%15%<0.5%14%5%2%N/ACable TV/HKUPOP32817–21 Aug 20121%9%5%5%4%<0.5%5%9%3%10%<0.5%9%3%1%37%28816–20 Aug 20121%10%5%4%4%<0.5%5%9%3%12%<0.5%8%3%1%37%now TV/HKUPOP18116–20 Aug 20121%16%7%6%6%<0.5%7%15%4%19%<0.5%13%5%1%N/Anow TV/HKUPOP17615–19 Aug 2012<0.5%16%7%5%5%<0.5%9%12%6%23%2 seats<0.5%10%5%1%N/A27715–19 Aug 2012<0.5%10%4%3%3%<0.5%6%8%4%15%2 seats<0.5%6%3%1%37%Cable TV/HKUPOP27914–18 Aug 2012<0.5%9%5%5%2%<0.5%4%7%5%17%2 seats<0.5%6%3%1%36%now TV/HKUPOP17914–18 Aug 2012<0.5%15%7% 7%3%<0.5%7%10%8%27%2 seats<0.5%9%5%2%N/Anow TV/HKUPOP17413–17 Aug 2012<0.5%15%6% 8%4%1%7%10%7%25%2 seats<0.5%13%5%1%N/ACable TV/HKUPOP28113–17 Aug 2012<0.5%9%4%5%2%<0.5%4%6%4%15%2 seats<0.5%8%3%<0.5%39%Cable TV/HKUPOP29212–16 Aug 2012<0.5%13%4%5%2%<0.5%5%8%5%12%<0.5%7%4%<0.5%35%now TV/HKUPOP19112–16 Aug 2012<0.5%19%6% 7%3%1%7%11%8%19%<0.5%12%6%1%N/Anow TV/HKUPOP19411–15 Aug 20121%19%4% 7%3%1%8%12%8%18%<0.5%13%6%1%N/ACable TV/HKUPOP29511–15 Aug 20121%13%3%5%2%<0.5%5%8%5%12%<0.5%9%4%<0.5%35%Cable TV/HKUPOP28910–14 Aug 20121%15%3%5%2%1%6%11%5%12%<0.5%11%3%<0.5%27%now TV/HKUPOP21010–14 Aug 20121%20%4% 7%3%1%8%15%7%16%<0.5%16%4%<0.5%N/Anow TV/HKUPOP1939–13 Aug 20121%19%6% 6%2%1%7%14%6%17%<0.5%18%4%<0.5%N/ACable TV/HKUPOP2759–13 Aug 20121%14%4%4%1%1%5%10%4%12%<0.5%13%2%<0.5%31%2638–12 Aug 20121%13%5%4%2%<0.5%6%12%5%9%<0.5%12%3%<0.5%27%now TV/HKUPOP1928–12 Aug 20121%18%6%6%2%<0.5%8%17%7%13%<0.5%17%5%<0.5%N/Anow TV/HKUPOP1817–11 Aug 20121%12%6%5%2%<0.5%8%17%6%13%<0.5%26%4%<0.5%N/ACable TV/HKUPOP2626–10 Aug 20121%9%7%6%3%<0.5%4%12%7%12%<0.5%15%4%<0.5%21%now TV/HKUPOP2076–10 Aug 2012<0.5%12%8%7%3%<0.5%6%15%8%16%<0.5%19%5%<0.5%N/Anow TV/HKUPOP1935–9 Aug 20121%10%9%6%5%<0.5%4%16%9%16%1%18%6%<0.5%N/ACable TV/HKUPOP2405–9 Aug 20121%8%7%5%4%<0.5%3%13%7%13%1%15%5%<0.5%20%Cable TV/HKUPOP2374–8 Aug 20121%9%4%6%4%<0.5%5%17%2 seats7%11%1%13%4%<0.5%18%now TV/HKUPOPunknown4–8 Aug 20121%10%5%8%5%<0.5%6%21%2 seats8%14%1%16%5%<0.5%N/Anow TV/HKUPOPunknown3–7 Aug 20121%13%6%7%4%<0.5%5%18%8%16%1%15%5%<0.5%N/ACable TV/HKUPOP2413–7 Aug 20121%11%5%5%4%<0.5%4%15%5%13%1%12%4%<0.5%19%Cable TV/HKUPOP2552–6 Aug 20121%11%5%5%3%<0.5%5%12%6%12%1%10%5%1%21%2471–5 Aug 20121%12%4%5%3%<0.5%6%12%5%11%<0.5%11%5%1%23%now TV/HKUPOP1,2661–5 Aug 20121%15%6%7%3%<0.5%8%16%7%15%1%15%6%2%N/AHKRA2,01812–21 Jul 2012N/A5.6%2.8%3.6%2.4%N/A8.5%11.7%9.3%10.2%N/A16.9%2.3%0.5%22.2%

Kowloon East Key: Pro-democrats secured; Pro-Beijing secured.