Pre-election pendulum for the 2015 Queensland state election

The following is a Mackerras pendulum prior to the 2015 Queensland state election.

"Very safe" seats require a swing of more than 20 points to change, "safe" seats 10–20 points to change, "fairly safe" seats 6–10 points, and "marginal" seats less than 6 points.

The following Mackerras pendulum worked by lining up all of the seats according to the percentage point margin post-election on a two-candidate-preferred basis. Following the 2012 election, Ray Hopper left the LNP to lead Katter's Australian Party while two further LNP MPs became independents (Carl Judge in the electorate of Yeerongpilly and Dr Alex Douglas in the electorate of Gaven), resulting in a total of 75 LNP seats, seven Labor seats, three Katter seats and four independent seats. By-elections in Redcliffe and Stafford saw Labor defeat the LNP, reducing the LNP to 73 seats with Labor on 9 seats.

Liberal National seats MarginalBulimbaAaron DillawayLNP0.1 points MaryboroughAnne MaddernLNP0.3 points v INDWaterfordMike LatterLNP1.0 pointLyttonNeil SymesLNP1.6 pointsGreenslopesIan KayeLNP2.5 pointsSandgateKerry MillardLNP2.9 pointsNudgeeJason WoodforthLNP3.1 pointsCookDavid KemptonLNP3.4 pointsCapalabaSteve DaviesLNP3.7 pointsIpswichIan BerryLNP4.2 pointsLoganMichael PucciLNP4.8 pointsTownsvilleRobert CavallucciLNP4.8 pointsBrisbane CentralJohn HathawayLNP4.9 pointsMount Coot-thaSaxon RiceLNP5.4 pointsMorayfieldDarren GrimwadeLNP5.6 pointsAshgroveCampbell NewmanLNP5.7 pointsFairly safeKeppelBruce YoungLNP6.4 pointsThuringowaSam CoxLNP6.7 pointsIpswich WestSean ChoatLNP7.2 pointsCairnsGavin KingLNP8.9 pointsNanangoDeb FrecklingtonLNP9.0 points v KAPAlgesterAnthony ShortenLNP9.1 points Barron RiverMichael TroutLNP9.5 pointsFerny GroveDale ShuttleworthLNP9.5 points MurrumbaReg GulleyLNP9.5 points StrettonFreya OstapovitchLNP9.6 points Toowoomba NorthTrevor WattsLNP9.6 points SafeMundingburraDavid CrisafulliLNP10.2 pointsSunnybankMark StewartLNP10.2 pointsWhitsundayJason CostiganLNP10.7 pointsBurleighMichael HartLNP11.0 pointsMansfieldIan WalkerLNP11.1 pointsMiraniTed MaloneLNP11.2 pointsBroadwaterVerity BartonLNP11.3 pointsAlbertMark BoothmanLNP11.9 pointsPumicestoneLisa FranceLNP12.1 pointsKallangurTrevor RuthenbergLNP12.4 pointsEvertonTim ManderLNP13.2 pointsCallideJeff SeeneyLNP13.5 points v KAPPine RiversSeath HolswichLNP13.7 pointsChatsworthSteve MinnikinLNP14.1 pointsSouthportRob MolhoekLNP14.7 pointsSpringwodJohn GrantLNP15.4 pointsMount OmmaneyTarnya SmithLNP16.5 pointsGympieDavid GibsonLNP16.5 points v KAPBurdekinRosemary MenkensLNP17.4 pointsBurnettStephen BennettLNP17.4 pointsClevelandMark RobinsonLNP18.1 pointsBundabergJack DempseyLNP18.2 pointsLockyerIan RickussLNP18.8 pointsIndooroopillyScott EmersonLNP19.5 pointsHinchinbrookAndrew CrippsLNP18.9 pointsVery safeCondamineVacantLNP20.1 points v KAPCurrumbinJann StuckeyLNP20.2 pointsGlass HouseAndrew PoweellLNP20.4 pointsClayfieldTim NichollsLNP20.6 pointsMaroochydoreFiona SimpsonLNP20.9 pointsRedlandsPeter DowlingLNP21.1 pointsCaloundraMark McArdleLNP21.2 pointsToowoomba SouthJohn McVeighLNP21.6 pointsAspleyTracy DavisLNP21.7 pointsHervey BayTed SorensenLNP21.7 pointsBeaudesertJon KrauseLNP22.3 pointsCoomeraMichael CrandonLNP23.3 pointsMoggillBruce FleggLNP23.9 pointsGregoryVaughan JohnsonLNP25.5 pointsNoosaGlen ElmesLNP25.5 points v GRNMudgeerabaRos BatesLNP25.9 points BuderimSteve DicksonLNP26.0 points Mermaid BeachRay StevensLNP26.0 points KawanaJarrod BleijieLNP26.3 points WarregoHoward HobbsLNP28.1 pointsSurfers ParadiseJohn-Paul LangbroekLNP29.5 pointsExtremely safeSouthern DownsLawrence SpringborgLNP30.4 points

Labor seatsMarginalMackayTim MulherinALP0.5 pointMulgraveCurtis PittALP1.1 pointsBundambaJo-Ann MillerALP1.8 pointsRockhamptonBill ByrneALP3.9 pointsSouth BrisbaneJackie TradALP4.7 pointsWoodridgeDesley ScottALP5.8 pointsFairly safeInalaAnnastacia PalaszczukALP6.9 pointsRedcliffeYvette D'AthALP7.1 pointsSafeStaffordDr Anthony LynhamALP12.0 pointsCrossbench seatsYeerongpillyCarl JudgeIND1.4 pointsNicklinPeter WellingtonIND4.9 pointsMount IsaRob KatterKAP10.0 points v LNPGladstoneLiz CunninghamIND14.0 points v ALPDalrympleShane KnuthKAP15.2 points v LNPGavenDr Alex DouglasIND19.1 points v ALP

References