The fifth Iranian Assembly of Experts election were held in Iran on 26 February 2016 to elect the members of the Assembly of Experts. All 88 members of the Assembly of Experts, who are known as mujtahids, are directly elected. The elections had been planned for 2014, but were delayed in order for the election to be held alongside the Islamic Consultative Assembly elections.

Incumbents were reelected in 49 of the assembly's 88 seats.

Background

In the previous election, The Two Societies endorsed 81 candidates in a joint statement and were able to win 69 seats out of 86. The reformists did not reach a coalition and lost the election.

Along with the Parliamentary elections, it was the first election since the implementation of a landmark nuclear agreement between 5+1 and Iran that saw it curb sensitive nuclear activities in return for the lifting of sanctions against Iran. The deal was opposed by many hardliners but backed by moderates and reformists. Over 30 million Iranians voted in the elections, according to the BBC.

According to Deutsche Welle, several polling stations were left open until midnight, in order to enable millions of voters that came late to take part in the elections.

Registration and qualification process

+ Candidates Registered and Qualified in the Assembly of Experts election historyElection dateN. C. Registered+/−N. C. Qualified %198216814686.901990180 12100 55.551998396 216160 40.402006493 280146 29.612016801 305166 20.72 For the first time in the history of the Islamic Republic of Iran, 801 aspirants registered to run in the elections. The number was a 62.47% increase compared to the previous election held in 2006. Among the candidates there were 16 women, another unprecedented event. There have been no female members in the assembly since its establishment.

On December 31, 2015, the Guardian Council announced that the four-hour Ijtihad test would be held January 5, 2016 in Qom in order to indicate candidates with proper knowledge, specifying that no alternative test date would be offered. The Council invited 527 candidates to take the test, excluding the 152 who reportedly withdrew and 111 who were denied permission (for a total of 790). Of the 16 women who registered, 10 received invitations.

Nearly 80% of candidates who applied for the Assembly were disqualified by the Guardian Council, including every woman and Hassan Khomeini.

Four incumbent members were disqualified: Ali Mohammad Dastgheib Shirazi, Fars province Mohammad Vaez Mousavi, East Azerbaijan province Mojtaba Taheri Khorramabadi, Luristan province Hassan Namazi, West Azerbaijan province Other famous disqualified candidates include: Mehdi Ghoreishi Rasoul Montajabnia Kazem Seddiqi Morteza Agha-Tehrani Majid Ansari Mostafa Pourmohammadi

Disqualifications left nine constituencies with only one candidate per seat; in other terms 20% of seats would be won in an uncontested election (i.e. numbers of candidates is as same as numbers of seats). Later the Ministry of the Interior declared that with the Guardian Council's approval, some qualified candidates changed their electoral district to make the election competitive in the destination constituency.

Statistics + Seats and Candidates qualified before electoral district changeConstituencyN. SeatsN. C.RegisteredN. C.QualifiedP.QualifiedC/S Tehran province161763620.45%2.25Razavi Khorasan province6471225.53%2Khuzestan province624729.16%1.16Isfahan province5611626.22%3.2Fars province529827.58%1.6East Azerbaijan province546613.04%1.2Gilan province430620%1.5Mazandaran province429827.58%2West Azerbaijan province33438.82%1Kerman province321523.81%1.66Ardabil province28225%1Alborz province224625%3Sistan & Baluchestan Province223313.04%1.5Qazvin province213323.13%1.5Kurdistan province223417.39%2Kermanshah province221419.04%2Golestan province216425%2Markazi province216531.25%2.5Hamedan Province213323.07%1.5Luristan province219315.78%1.5Ilam province114214.28%2Bushehr province15120%1Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province116212.5%2South Khorasan province17228.57%2North Khorasan province110110%1Zanjan province118316.66%3Semnan province17114.28%1Qom province120420%4Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad province19222.22%2Hormozgan province11119.09%1Yazd province111327.27%3Total8880116620.72%1.886

Campaign

In this election, contrary to the previous ones, The Two Societies did not reach a coalition and issued different lists. The main dispute between the two, was whether they should support Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani candidacy or not. Combatant Clergy Association supported Rafsanjani; the Society of Seminary Teachers of Qom did not. There were three major electoral lists in the election: Combatant Clergy Association, led by Ali Movahedi-Kermani Society of Seminary Teachers of Qom, led by Mohammad Yazdi People's Experts, led by Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and endorsed by The List of Hope

In a 17 February public speech, Supreme Leader of Iran Ali Khamenei warns of the subtle influence of foreign agents on the elections, stating that they are implementing new ploys in various ways to falsely polarize the election. He also condemned BBC Persian's programs on the elections and said that people will act differently from what they want.

Hardliners attacked Rafsanjani's list by calling it "The British list" (), implying that it is supported by the United Kingdom.

Ahmad Khatami, the interim Friday prayer imam of Tehran spoke out in the Friday prayer: "British and foreign media outlets are asking our people not to vote for Jannati, Yazdi, Mesbah, Alamolhoda and I. This is none of your business; you nosy people should know that these five are the top choices of our people".

Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani dismissed the charges and said "Such interpretations regarding British list (of candidates) is an insult to Iranian peoples's wisdom", in a meeting with the reformist and moderate candidates. He also deplored that 500 knowledgeable theologians and seminarians as well as university instructors were disqualified for the elections. "They [the hard-liners] presently have no excuse to rage against us and insult us. Thus, they [the hard-liners] attribute phrases like 'inside man' and 'British' to the old revolutionaries... These figures have been defeated by the people and are now seeking to exact [their] revenge on the administration and President Rouhani", he added.

Despite the restrictions, reformists became well-organised to seek gains. The reformists who were barred from public presence as a result of 2009 protests, tried to keep the flame alive online. The instant messaging service Telegram played an important role in the campaigning period. More than 20 million Iranians are reported to be on the messaging app. Mohammad Khatami, who is facing restrictions on activities and Iranian media (including State Television and Radio) are banned from mentioning his name or publishing the images him, released a video message online urging people to vote for “The List of Hope”, creating a huge momentum —The coalition of reformists and moderates, endorsed Rafsanjani's “People's Experts”. Khatami's message was viewed more than 3 million times on Telegram in one day. Another poster shared on the app was viewed by a million people in 12 hours.

Two days before the election, President Hassan Rouhani took to text message almost every cell phone to drum up support in Friday's elections, tacitly endorsing the moderate list of hope.

Results

Summary

According to the Associated Press, moderate clerics defeated hardliners and dominated the assembly with Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and Hassan Rouhani, alongside 50 of their allies, securing 59% of the seats. The moderates previously held around 20 seats in the assembly.

In Tehran province, Rafsanjani's People's Experts list received a landslide victory, winning 15 of 16 seats, and were successful in establishing its "tactical/disapproval voting strategy", causing Mohammad-Taqi Mesbah-Yazdi and Mohammad Yazdi to lose their seats. Considering the latter was Chairman of the Assembly of Experts, the voters also changed the officeholder. However, Ahmad Jannati placed 16th and got reelected.

Compared to the previous term, 38% of the assembly has changed. Among the outgoing members, nine were deceased (among them Ali Meshkini and Mohammad Reza Mahdavi Kani), 13 did not compete in the election (four incumbents were disqualified, like Ali Mohammad Dastgheib Shirazi and 9 did not seek reelection, most notably Abbas Vaez Tabasi) and 10 were not elected.

According to a report published by the Iranian Students' News Agency, 27 seats went to Principlists while Reformists won 20 seats. 35 candidates were endorsed by both. Independent clerics who were not listed managed to win 6 seats.

A statistical work on electoral lists by Khabaronline shows that The Two Societies have gained plurality. 27 seats were endorsed by all People's Experts, List of Hope, Combatant Clergy Association and Society of Seminary Teachers of Qom lists. Combatant Clergy Association and Society of Seminary Teachers of Qom won five and three exclusive seats respectively, while their joint lists won 24 seats. People's Experts won 19 exclusive seats. + Lists winning exclusive seats (Source: Khabaronline)ListSeats WonExclusiveSharedTotal People's Experts/Hope1927 Combatant Clergy Association551 Society of Seminary Teachers of Qom351

Another piece published by Khabaronline, indicates that Combatant Clergy Association leads the race winning 66 seats and Society of Seminary Teachers of Qom and People's Experts have won 64 and 55 seats respectively. People's Experts has 16 exclusive winning candidates, the number is 3 for Society of Seminary Teachers of Qom while Combatant Clergy Association has no exclusive seat. The Two Societies have 25 shared seats and 35 candidates are endorsed by all three lists. At last, only four members of the assembly would be independent.

Turnout Turnout was officially declared 62%. The official results were disputed by BBC Persian columnist. + Source: Ministry of InteriorConstituencyRegistered VotersTurnoutEast Azerbaijan province2,909,20862%West Azerbaijan province2,296,59165.5%Ardabil province998,49961.5%Isfahan province3,445,29861%Alborz province1,480,13154%Ilam province434,63675%Bushehr province691,40676%Tehran province8,475,07750%Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province702,62375%South Khorasan province598,20572%North Khorasan province624,30071%Razavi Khorasan province4,420,71868%Khuzestan province3,477,95970%Zanjan province775,82067%Semnan province494,71260%Sistan and Baluchestan province1,685,76066.14%Fars province3,374,24363.6%Qazvin province887,16461%Qom province768,73060%Kurdistan province1,161,53753.3%Kerman province2,083,87863%Kermanshah province1,507,59560%Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad province518,81180%Golestan province1,288,53681%Gilan province1,861,37065%Luristan province1,409,036Mazandaran province2,235,63661%Markazi province1,047,67060.4%Hormozgan province1,119,09367%Hamedan province1,505,27958.1%Yazd province665,504 64.5%Total54,915,02462%

Reactions/Analysis Supreme Leader of Iran Ali Khamenei said that "the people really shone brightly in the elections and participation of 62% of the qualified people in the election is a high percentage compared to many countries even the U.S". The Leader said the next Assembly of Experts is duty bound to "remain revolutionary, think revolutionary and act revolutionary". He also praised the "decent behavior" of the candidates who failed to win the votes and noted a failure by Mohammad-Taqi Mesbah-Yazdi and Mohammad Yazdi to win seats in the Assembly of Experts was a "damage" to the Assembly. Farzan Sabet of the Carnegie Endowment saw "four important trends": the continuing unity of the moderate alliance, disunity in the conservative alliance between the hardliners and the traditionalists, voter engagement with the electoral process, and