In the leadup to the June 2015 general election, various organisations carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intention. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.

The results tend to vary widely, as described in opinion polls in Turkey.

Election poll results Graphical summary

Poll results Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. (Note that, pre 2015 results only indicate the last date of the survey's fieldwork, and not the whole interval.) If such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. For the highest percentage figure in each polling survey, the background is shaded in the leading party's colour. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. When a specific poll does not show a data figure for a party, the party's cell corresponding to that poll is shown empty.

2015

Date Pollster Sample AKP CHP MHP HDP ANAPAR Others Lead 7 JunElection results – 40.7 25.1 16.5 13.0 0.1 4.6 2 JunGezici4,860 38.5 28.5 16.5 12.5 – 3.0 30 May – 1 JunORC3,850 46.0 25.3 15.5 9.0 – 4.2 30 – 31 MayKonda3,543 41.0 27.8 14.8 12.6 – 3.8 28 May 27 MayANAR – 40.5 26.0 17.0 11.0 – 5.5 27 MayAksoy – 42.6 26.2 16.2 10.6 – 4.2 18 – 26 MayMAK 2,155 43.6 24.9 16.4 9.9 – 5.2 25 MaySONAR 3,000 41.0 26.0 18.1 10.4 – 4.5 23 – 24 MayGezici 4,860 39.3 28.5 17.2 12.4 – 2.6 21 – 24 MayAndy-Ar 4,166 41.9 25.8 16.0 10.7 – 5.6 18 – 24 MayKamuAR 5,223 35.3 27.9 23.1 7.7 – 6.0 16 – 24 MayDenge 11,859 44.6 25.5 16.1 10.5 – 3.3 17 – 23 MayPolitics 4,200 45.2 26.3 15.4 9.6 – 3.5 11 – 22 MaySAMER 4,150 43.3 27.1 15.3 11.3 – 3.0 15 – 21 MayVera 1,509 43.5 27.1 16.0 9.6 – 3.9 21 MayKonda – 40.5 28.7 14.4 11.5 – 4.9 15 – 20 MayAKAM 2,164 38.9 28.1 17.6 11.8 – 3.6 8 – 11 MayMetroPoll 2,976 42.8 27.0 17.1 9.2 – 3.9 9 – 10 MayGezici 4,860 38.2 30.1 17.1 10.5 – 4.1 6 – 7 MayCHP 1,618 39.3 28.1 17.8 10.3 – 4.6 4 – 7 MayORC 2,450 47.5 23.9 15.0 8.1 – 5.5 3 – 7 MayDenge 5,073 45.6 25.5 15.1 9.5 – 4.3 2 – 7 MayBenenson SG – 39.0 31.6 14.7 10.5 – 4.2 30 Apr–7 MayKonsensus 1,500 43.9 26.7 15.8 9.7 – 3.9 1 – 5 MayAKAM 2,262 38.3 27.3 18.1 11.8 – 4.5 3 May 24 – 27 AprAKAM 3,214 38.1 28.1 17.8 12.6 – 3.4 20 – 27 AprKamuAR 4,382 36.2 26.7 22.4 6.7 – 8.0 20 – 26 AprGezici 4,860 38.1 28.5 18.0 11.0 – 4.4 18 – 25 AprSONAR 3,086 43.0 26.1 17.2 9.6 – 4.1 18 – 25 AprMAK 5,400 45.15 24.79 15.25 9.15 – 5.66 21 Apr 18 – 21 AprMetroPoll 2,824 42.5 26.4 17.6 10.2 – 3.3 19 Apr 11–17 AprAKAM 5,160 40.7 25.5 18.0 11.4 – 4.4 15 Apr 9–13 AprORC 4,200 48.3 23.7 14.4 8.9 – 4.7 9–12 AprGezici – 39.2 28.1 16.9 11.3 – 4.6 12 AprMetroPoll 2,500 41.7 27.7 17.4 10.4 – 2.8 4 AprAndy-Ar – 43.7 23.5 17.6 10.4 – 4.8 4 AprGENAR – 47.7 25.0 13.5 10.9 – 2.9 30 MarDenge – 47.0 26.0 14.6 8.8 – 3.6 18–24 MarORC 3,178 50.3 23.0 14.1 8.6 – 4.0 16 MarMAK 5,000 47.7 25.3 14.2 9.2 – 3.7 12–21 MarKamuAR 8,173 35.6 27.2 21.8 7.2 – 8.2 7–8 MarGezici 4,860 39.3 29.6 17.7 11.4 – 2.0 4–7 MarSONAR 3,000 40.0 27.1 18.0 10.1 – 4.8 4–7 MarORC 3,160 50.0 23.2 13.5 8.4 – 4.9 27 FebGENAR 5,202 47.7 25.1 13.4 8.9 – 4.9 15 Feb 14–15 FebGezici 3,840 39.1 28.7 18.1 9.5 0.1 4.5 11–14 FebMetropoll 2,694 43.1 27.0 16.4 9.8 – 3.7 10–14 FebORC 4,650 49.8 23.0 13.9 8.9 – 4.4 3–8 FebAndy-AR 2,263 45.2 25.6 16.5 9.2 – 3.5 3–8 FebMAK 5,454 47.6 24.8 14.3 8.0 – 5.3 JanKONDA ? 45.4 23.3 15.1 10.6 – 5.6 26 Jan 19–23 JanPollmark 5,000 49.4 23.5 15.0 8.0 – 4.1 17–20 JanMetropoll 2,759 44.9 26.9 14.6 9.3 – 4.3 15–19 JanORC 1,720 48.6 23.3 13.5 8.2 – 6.4 17–18 JanGezici 3,600 39.8 29.6 17.3 7.3 0.4 5.6 12 Jan SONAR 3,000 38.1 27.8 17.6 8.2 3.9 4.4 5–10 Jan MAK 5,400 48.4 25.4 14.0 6.8 – 5.2 1–10 Jan TÜSİAR 4,153 51.4 22.6 14.2 8.0 – 3.8 Date Pollster Sample LeadAKP CHP MHP HDP ANAPAR Others

2014 Date Pollster Sample AKP CHP MHP HDP ANAPAR Others Lead DecKONDA ? 47.5 25.0 14.9 8.0 – 4.6 24–31 Dec ANAR 5,190 47.0 25.0 14.0 7.8 – 6.2 15–20 Dec ORC 3,860 49.4 23.0 13.1 7.9 – 6.6 4–14 Dec KHUPoll identifies 10.6% of respondents as non-voters. 1,000 47.1 26.2 16.0 10.2 – 0.6 14 Dec KamuAR 4,177 38.5 27.1 21.6 6.7 – 6.1 4–8 Dec GENAR 5,115 48.2 25.0 14.1 9.0 – 3.7 1–5 Dec MAK 10,800 50.0 25.1 15.0 4.5 – 5.4 1 Dec 2014 ORC 3,100 48.5 23.1 13.7 8.0 – 6.7 28 Nov 2014 SONAR 3,025 37.17 27.01 17.13 6.69 8.04 3.96 14 Nov 2014 3 Nov 2014 MAK 10,800 51.1 25.6 14.1 5.3 3.9 25 Oct 2014Gezici 5,292 43.3 28.7 18.5 – – 25 Oct 2014 ORC 11,353 47.3 24.6 13.5 8.3 6.3 24 Oct 2014 Optimar 5,200 50.6 24.7 14.5 6.8 3.4 23 Oct 2014 Gezici 3,292 41.4 27.4 19.7 8.1 3.4 22 Oct 2014 MetroPoll 2,752 47.5 26.7 15.7 8.3 1.8 20 Oct 2014 Andy-Ar 2,037 46.4 24.8 14.3 8.8 5.7 14 Oct 2014 Pollmark 5,071 50.4 24.4 13.1 8.0 4.1 23 Sep 2014 Optimar 5,200 50.6 24.7 14.5 6.8 3.4 20 Sep 2014 15 Sep 2014 ANAR 5,200 51.7 24.7 12.1 8.3 3.2 10 Sep 2014 ORC 2,312 47.4 24.3 15.0 9.5 3.8 28 Aug 2014 19 Aug 2014 Andy-Ar 1,897 45.6 24.3 16.8 9.0 4.3 14 Aug 2014 MetroPoll – 44.1 26.0 16.0 – – 13 Aug 2014 ORC 2,750 47.1 25.0 14.2 10.2 3.5 10 Aug 2014 22 Jul 2014 TÜSİAR 4,123 50.1 27.3 14.2 6.1 2.3 17 Jul 2014 Andy-AR 3,216 48.8 25.2 15.2 6.5 4.3 28 Apr 2014 MAK 10,440 50.1 23.0 14.0 6.5 6.5 30 May 2014 Gezici 3,292 44.5 27.5 18.6 8.1 1.3 6 May 2014 ORC 5,100 49.1 24.8 16.3 6.8 3.0 30 Mar 2014 2014 local elections – 42.9 26.3 17.8 6.3 6.7 18 Mar 2014 SONAR 15,948 39.0 30.0 – – – 17 Mar 2014 AKP – 29.7 33.3 21.3 7.6 8.1 28 Feb 2014 Gezici 5,292 39.7 31.4 18.2 7.1 3.6 Date Pollster Sample LeadAKP CHP MHP HDP ANAPAR Others

2013 Date Pollster Sample AKP CHP MHP HDP ANAPAR Others Lead 17 Dec 2013 22 Sep 2013 Gezici 5,292 42.5 27.3 18.1 9.5 2.6 1 Sep 2013 ORC 3,100 49.2 26.5 14.9 6.4 3.0 24 Jun 2013 Konsensus 1,500 47.1 30.9 14.6 4.6 2.8 30 May 2013 13 Apr 2013 Gezici 2,646 44.1 27.5 17.2 9.2 2.0 6 Apr 2013 GENAR 3,000 50.2 25.2 13.7 6.4 4.5 1 Jan 2013 O&A 2,614 44.6 30.2 15.8 5.3 4.1 Date Pollster Sample LeadAKP CHP MHP HDP ANAPAR Others

2012 Date Pollster Sample AKP CHP MHP HDP ANAPAR Others Lead 30 Dec 2012 ORC – 48.2 27.4 14.1 5.5 4.8 12 Dec 2012 Konsensus 1,501 50.7 27.7 12.8 6.4 2.4 24 Nov 2012 Gezici 8,460 45.9 26.1 17.1 7.9 3.0 15 Nov 2012 SONAR 2,220 47.3 25.2 15.2 7.1 5.2 12 Oct 2012 GENAR – 51.2 26.5 12.4 7.3 2.6 6 Sep 2012 Gezici 6,460 46.3 26.4 17.7 – – 27 Aug 2012 Andy-Ar 3,251 49.7 20.7 17.1 8.5 3.9 11 Jul 2012 SDE 2,155 49.0 25.9 14.1 6.3 4.7 30 May 2012 ORC 5,000 51.7 24.7 12.4 7.0 4.2 31 Apr 2012 ORC 5,670 54.7 19.3 15.8 6.5 3.7 13 Apr 2012 GENAR 2,220 51.3 25.7 13.2 5.1 4.7 30 Mar 2012 ORC 5,000 55.2 19.0 14.4 6.1 5.3 3 Mar 2012 Konsensus 1,505 51.7 27.7 13.3 5.6 1.7 Date Pollster Sample LeadAKP CHP MHP HDP ANAPAR Others

2011 Date Pollster Sample AKP CHP MHP BDP ANAPAR Others Lead 19 Dec 2011 SONAR 3,000 54.8 19.5 16.1 6.2 3.3 18 Dec 2011 Konsensus 1,500 50.2 27.1 12.0 5.8 4.9 12 Jun 2011 2011 election – 49.83 25.98 13.01 5.67as independents 11.18 Date Pollster Sample LeadAKP CHP MHP BDP ANAPAR Others

Parliamentary seat predictions

Date Pollster Sample AKP CHP MHP HDP Majority Notes 7 June Election results – Hung ? Metropoll – Poll applied to election simulator in http://secimharitasi.com/milletvekili-dagilimi-hesapla2 – 3 June A&G Research 2,976 Poll applied to election simulator in http://secimharitasi.com/milletvekili-dagilimi-hesapla2 June Gezici 4,860 Poll applied to election simulator in http://secimharitasi.com/milletvekili-dagilimi-hesapla2 June SONAR – Poll applied to election simulator in http://secimharitasi.com/milletvekili-dagilimi-hesapla30 – 31 May KONDA 3,543 Poll applied to election simulator in http://secimharitasi.com/milletvekili-dagilimi-hesapla27 May ANAR – Poll applied to election simulator in http://secimharitasi.com/milletvekili-dagilimi-hesapla25 May SONAR 3,000 Poll applied to election simulator in http://secimharitasi.com/milletvekili-dagilimi-hesapla23 – 24 May Gezici 4,860 Poll applied to election simulator in http://secimharitasi.com/milletvekili-dagilimi-hesapla21 – 24 May Andy-Ar 4,166 Poll applied to election simulator in http://secimharitasi.com/milletvekili-dagilimi-hesapla21 May Konda – Poll applied to election simulator in http://secimharitasi.com/milletvekili-dagilimi-hesapla9 – 10 May Gezici 1,500 Poll applied to election simulator in http://secimharitasi.com/milletvekili-dagilimi-hesapla6 – 7 May CHP 1,618 30 Apr–7 May Konsensus 1,500 If the HDP surpasses the 10% threshold If the HDP falls below the 10% threshold24–27 Apr 2015 AKAM 3,124 11–17 Apr 2015 AKAM 5,160 Predicts 2 independent MPs (Hakan Şükür and Cemal Kaya)12 Apr 2015 MetroPoll 2,500 24 Mar 2015 ORC 3,176 Two-thirds majority11 Mar 2015 SONAR 3,000 If the HDP surpasses the 10% threshold If the HDP falls below the 10% threshold8 Mar 2015 Gezici 4,860 12 Jun 2011 2011 election – Date Pollster Sample Majority NotesAKP CHP MHP BDP

Diaspora Turkish expats living abroad will have the ability to vote for the first time in a Turkish general election. The following table shows the results of polls conducted in different countries amongst Turkish expat voters. Date Country Pollster Sample AKP CHP MHP HDP ANAPAR Others Lead 8–31 May 2015Overseas results – 50.4 15.9 9.1 21.4 0.1 3.1 18–26 May 2015 MAK 1,381294240130110 58.5 14.0 8.5 12.0 – 7.0 4–12 April 2015 Ethno-Forschung 3,000 60.8 10.1 11.9 17.2 – 0.0 Date Country Pollster Sample LeadAKP CHP MHP HDP ANAPAR Others

Polling on other issues

A range of opinion polling regarding several contemporary issues which may affect voter choice has also been conducted by several organisations. The results of these are listed below. Please note that some opinion polls may offer different means of wording questions, or may offer different options.

Government corruption scandal

The following table shows opinion polling for whether the 17–25 December 2014 corruption scandal is seen to be a genuine corruption probe, or a plot against the government.

Date Pollster Sample Corruption investigation Coup plot Both Don't know 14 Dec 2014 KHU 1,000 38.4 35.6 – 1.3 21 Jan 2014 MetroPoll 1,545 42.2 24.0 24.9 8.9

New presidential palace

The following table lists opinions on the construction of a new presidential palace, which has raised controversy due to its size, cost, location and legality.

Date Pollster Sample Approve Disapprove Don't know 14 Dec 2014 KHU 1,000 37.5 48.0 14.5 14 Dec 2014 KamuAR 4,177 23.8 71.7 4.5 30 Nov 2014 MetroPoll 2,780 35.2 57.1 7.7

System of government

The AKP government support a presidential system of government as opposed to the current parliamentary system. Should they win above 330 seats in the next parliament, they have voiced intentions to place several proposed constitutional changes to a referendum, which may include the issue of which government system is used in Turkey. The following polls show the support for parliamentary, presidential and semi-presidential systems.

Date Pollster Sample Parliamentary Presidential Semi-presidential Other/Don't know 23 February 2015 Gezici 3,480 76.8 23.2 – – 3 February 2015 A&G – 70.0 30.0 – – 14 Dec 2014 KHU 1,000 79.3 12.6 4.7 3.1 August 2014 MetroPOLL – 42.2 34.3 – 23.5 May 2014 MetroPOLL – 45.8 33.6 – 20.5 May 2014 MetroPOLL – 45.8 33.6 – 20.5 August 2013 MetroPOLL – 43.8 40.1 – 21.1 20 Jul 2013 Bilgesam 2,570 67.9 32.1 – – June 2013 MetroPOLL – 42.9 30.9 – 26.2 April 2013 MetroPOLL – 39.8 35.2 – 25.0 11 Mar 2013 Varyans 5,068 56.5 27.6 11.4 4.5 December 2012 MetroPOLL – 44.2 36.9 – 18.924 Nov 2012 Gezici 8,460 57.4 42.6 – –15 Nov 2012 SONAR 2,220 52.5 26.8 – 20.7 June 2012 MetroPOLL – 37.7 43.2 – 19.1 February 2011 A&G 2,516 56.3 16.0 0.8 26.9

Economy

The following table lists opinions on how well the government have managed the Turkish economy.

Date Pollster Sample Approve Disapprove Don't know 14 Dec 2014 KHU 1,000 30.0 44.4 25.6 30 Nov 2014 MetroPoll 2,780 40.2 54.4 5.5 31 Jul 2014 Pew 1,001 50.0 46.0 4.030 Mar 2012 ORC 5,000 71.6 28.4 –

Syrian Civil War