The 2018 Victorian state election was held on Saturday, 24 November 2018 to elect the 59th Parliament of Victoria. All 88 seats in the Legislative Assembly (lower house) and all 40 seats in the Legislative Council (upper house) were up for election. The first-term incumbent Labor government, led by Premier Daniel Andrews, won a second four-year term, defeating the Liberal/National Coalition opposition, led by Opposition Leader Matthew Guy in a landslide victory. The Greens, a minor party led by Samantha Ratnam also contested the election.
Labor won 55 seats in the 88-seat Legislative Assembly, an increase of eight seats from the previous election in 2014, and a majority of 22 seats. This was the fifth time that a Labor government was re-elected in Victoria, and it tied Victorian Labor's second-best showing at the state level. The Coalition suffered an 11-seat swing against it, and won 27 seats. The Greens won three seats, a net increase of one seat since the last election though equal to the share of seats they held when the election was called. The remaining three seats on the crossbench were won by independents. In the Legislative Council, Labor won 18 seats, three short of a majority. The Coalition won 11 seats, and the remaining 11 seats were won by a range of minor parties from across the political spectrum.
Several days after Labor's victory, the Second Andrews Ministry was sworn in by the Governor and was notable for featuring an equal number of men and women. The following week the Liberal Party elected Michael O'Brien leader of the party, who became Opposition Leader in the new parliament, after Guy had announced earlier he would stand down from the position.
For the election, Victoria had compulsory voting and used majoritarian preferential voting in single-member seats for the Legislative Assembly, and Single transferable vote (STV) in multi-member seats for the proportionally represented Legislative Council. The Legislative Council had 40 members serving four-year terms, elected from eight electoral regions each with five members. The Victorian Legislative Council uses Group Voting Tickets. With each region electing five members, the quota in each region for election, after distribution of preferences, was 16.7% (one-sixth) of the valid votes cast in that district. The election was conducted by the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC), an independent body answerable to parliament.
Key dates Pursuant to the Electoral Act 2002, Victoria has had fixed terms, with all elections since the 2006 election held every four years on the last Saturday of November. The incumbent government entered into caretaker mode at 6:00 pm on Tuesday, 30 October 2018, when writs were officially issued.
Key dates for the election are: 30 October: Writs issued by the Governor of Victoria 31 October: Opening of nominations for all candidates 6 November: Close of electoral roll 8 November: Close of nominations for party candidates 9 November: Close of nominations for independent candidates 12 November: Early voting begins 24 November: Election day (polls open 8am to 6pm) 30 November: Last day for receipt of postal votes 15 December: Last day for return of writs.
Previous parliament
Legislative Assembly Following the 2014 election, Labor formed majority government with 47 seats. The Coalition held 38 seats, with the Liberal Party holding 30 and the National Party holding 8. On the crossbench, the Greens held 2 seats and Independent Suzanna Sheed held the seat of Shepparton.
Legislative Council Following the 2014 election, Labor held 14 seats; the Coalition held 16 seats (14 Liberal, 2 National); the Greens held 5 seats; the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party held 2 seats; and the Sex Party (now the Reason Party), Democratic Labour Party, and Vote 1 Local Jobs party held 1 seat each.
By-elections Former Nationals leader Peter Ryan announced his resignation from parliament on 2 February 2015, triggering a by-election in the seat of Gippsland South for 14 March. The election was won by Danny O'Brien of the National Party.
Denis Napthine and Terry Mulder resigned from parliament on 3 September 2015. Their seats were retained by the Liberal Party in by-elections held in South-West Coast and Polwarth on 31 October.
Minister for Women and Minister for the Prevention of Family Violence Fiona Richardson died on 23 August 2017. A by-election was held in the seat of Northcote on 18 November, in which the Victorian Greens won the seat from the Labor Party.
Changes in parliament Don Nardella, the former Deputy Speaker of the Assembly and member for the seat of Melton, resigned from the Labor Party on 7 March 2017 to sit as an independent. Nardella's resignation was demanded by Premier Andrews after Nardella refused to pay back approximately $100,000 of taxpayer funded entitlements in the midst an expenses scandal. The resignation reduced the number of Labor members in the Assembly from 47 to 46, still above the 45 seats needed for majority government to be formed. Nardella had previously announced his intention to quit politics at the 2018 election and following his resignation from the Labor Party stated he intended to serve out his full term as the member for Melton.
Russell Northe, the member for Morwell resigned from the National Party on 28 August 2017, due to mental health and financial issues, continuing in his position as an independent.
Greg Barber resigned as Leader of the Greens and from his Northern Metropolitan Region seat on 28 September 2017, and was replaced in both by Moreland councillor Samantha Ratnam.
Colleen Hartland, a Greens member of the Western Metropolitan Region, resigned on 8 February 2018, and was replaced by Huong Truong.
State of electorates
The following Mackerras pendulum lists seats in the Legislative Assembly according to the percentage point margin on a two candidate preferred basis based on the 2014 election results. The Australian Electoral Commission considers a seat "safe" if it requires a swing of over 10% to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10%, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6%.
Labor seats - 2014 Seat Member Party MarginMarginalFrankstonPaul EdbrookeALP0.5%CarrumSonya KilkennyALP0.7%BentleighNick StaikosALP0.8%RichmondRichard WynneALP1.9% v GRNMordiallocTim RichardsonALP2.1%BrunswickJane GarrettALP2.2% v GRNCranbourneJude PereraALP2.3%ElthamVicki WardALP2.7%Albert ParkMartin FoleyALP3.0%IvanhoeAnthony CarbinesALP3.4%Yan YeanDanielle GreenALP3.7%MacedonMary-Anne ThomasALP3.8%SunburyJosh BullALP4.3%MulgraveDaniel AndrewsALP4.5%Narre Warren NorthLuke DonnellanALP4.6%BellarineLisa NevilleALP4.8%Bendigo EastJacinta AllanALP5.0%MonbulkJames MerlinoALP5.0%Narre Warren SouthJudith GraleyALP5.5%WendoureeSharon KnightALP5.8%Fairly safeGeelongChristine CouzensALP6.0%BuninyongGeoff HowardALP6.4%NiddrieBen CarrollALP7.7%OakleighSteve DimopoulosALP8.2%EssendonDanny PearsonALP8.7%SafeMeltonDon NardellaALP11.2%KeysboroughMartin PakulaALP11.9%Bendigo WestMaree EdwardsALP12.2%BundooraColin BrooksALP12.2%AltonaJill HennessyALP12.6%DandenongGabrielle WilliamsALP12.9%FootscrayMarsha ThomsonALP14.5%TarneitTelmo LanguillerALP14.6%WerribeeTim PallasALP15.7%ClarindaHong LimALP15.8%SydenhamNatalie HutchinsALP16.3%WilliamstownWade NoonanALP16.5%Pascoe ValeLizzie BlandthornALP16.8%LaraJohn ErenALP17.1%St AlbansNatalie SuleymanALP17.5%YurokeRos SpenceALP18.5%Mill ParkLily D'AmbrosioALP19.9%Very safeKororoitMarlene KairouzALP20.0%PrestonRobin ScottALP24.7%BroadmeadowsFrank McGuireALP27.8%ThomastownBronwyn HalfpennyALP28.4% Coalition seats - 2014 Seat Member Party Margin MarginalRiponLouise StaleyLIB0.8%MorwellRussell NortheNAT1.8%South BarwonAndrew KatosLIB2.9%BurwoodGraham WattLIB3.2%EildonCindy McLeishLIB3.8%BassBrian PaynterLIB4.6%BayswaterHeidi VictoriaLIB4.6%Mount WaverleyMichael GidleyLIB4.6%Forest HillNeil AngusLIB4.8%CaulfieldDavid SouthwickLIB4.9%RingwoodDee RyallLIB5.1%Box HillRobert ClarkLIB5.7%Fairly safeSandringhamMurray ThompsonLIB7.3%HastingsNeale BurgessLIB7.6%NepeanMartin DixonLIB7.6%Ferntree GullyNick WakelingLIB7.8%MilduraPeter CrispNAT8.0% v INDRowvilleKim WellsLIB8.4%HawthornJohn PesuttoLIB8.6%GembrookBrad BattinLIB9.0%CroydonDavid HodgettLIB9.3%EvelynChristine FyffeLIB9.6%BenambraBill TilleyLIB9.7%BrightonLouise AsherLIB9.8%SafeBulleenMatthew GuyLIB10.6%KewTim SmithLIB10.6%PolwarthTerry MulderLIB10.6%South-West CoastDenis NapthineLIB11.0%NarracanGary BlackwoodLIB11.3%WarrandyteRyan SmithLIB11.6%MorningtonDavid MorrisLIB12.6%EuroaSteph RyanNAT14.5%Gippsland SouthPeter RyanNAT15.7%MalvernMichael O'BrienLIB16.3%Ovens ValleyTim McCurdyNAT16.6%Gippsland EastTim BullNAT17.9%Very safeLowanEmma KealyNAT21.3%Murray PlainsPeter WalshNAT22.4%Crossbench seats - 2014PrahranSam HibbinsGRN0.4% v LIBMelbourneEllen SandellGRN2.4% v ALPSheppartonSuzanna SheedIND2.6% v NATNorthcoteLidia ThorpeGRN5.6% v ALP
Registered parties At the close of nominations, there were 23 parties registered with the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC), of which 21 contested the election:
Animal Justice Party Australian Conservatives (did not contest) Aussie Battler Party Australian Country Party/Give It Back Australian Greens Australian Labor Party Australian Liberty Alliance Democratic Labour Party Derryn Hinch's Justice Party Health Australia Party Hudson for Northern Victoria Liberal Democratic Party Liberal Party National Party Pauline Hanson's One Nation (did not contest) Reason Party Shooters and Fishers Party Transport Matters Party Socialist Alliance (contested as part of Victorian Socialists electoral alliance) Sustainable Australia Victorian Socialists Voluntary Euthanasia Party Vote 1 Local Jobs
Candidates and retiring MPs
Nominations of candidates opened on 31 October 2018. Nominations for party candidates closed on 8 November, and for independent candidates on 9 November.
A total of 887 candidates nominated for the election, down from 896 at the 2014 election. There were 507 candidates for the Legislative Assembly, the second-highest number on record, down from 545 in 2014. The 380 candidates for the Legislative Council was the highest number of upper house candidates in a Victorian election, up from 351 in 2014.
Retiring MPs Members who chose not to renominate are as follows:
Labor Judith Graley MLA (Narre Warren South) – announced 19 August 2017 Geoff Howard MLA (Buninyong) – announced 15 September 2017 Sharon Knight MLA (Wendouree) – announced 31 July 2017 Telmo Languiller MLA (Tarneit) – announced 26 August 2017 Hong Lim MLA (Clarinda) – announced 5 September 2017 Wade Noonan MLA (Williamstown) – announced 4 October 2017 Jude Perera MLA (Cranbourne) – announced 15 September 2017 Marsha Thomson MLA (Footscray) – announced 21 September 2017 Khalil Eideh MLC (Western Metropolitan Region) – announced 21 September 2017 Daniel Mulino MLC (Eastern Victoria Region) – retiring to run for federal House of Representatives
Liberal Louise Asher MLA (Brighton) – announced 11 August 2016 Martin Dixon MLA (Nepean) – announced 10 August 2016 Christine Fyffe MLA (Evelyn) – announced 21 October 2016 Murray Thompson MLA (Sandringham) – announced 24 November 2016Sandringham state Liberal MP Murray Thompson joins Brighton's Louise Asher in not standing in 2018, Bayside Leader, 24 November 2016 Richard Dalla-Riva MLC (Eastern Metropolitan Region) – announced 10 February 2017 Simon Ramsay MLC (Western Victoria Region) – announced 24 July 2018
Independent Don Nardella MLA (Melton) – announced 28 February 2017
Disendorsed candidates