2016 United States Senate election in North Carolina

The 2016 United States Senate election in North Carolina was held November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of North Carolina, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Primary elections were held March 15.WRAL: North Carolina primaries officially on March 15 with signing

Incumbent Republican Senator Richard Burr won re-election to a third term in office against Democratic former state representative Deborah Ross and Libertarian Sean Haugh.

Burr said that this election would be his last.

Republican primary There had been speculation that Burr might retire, but he said in September 2014 that he was "planning" on running and reaffirmed this in January 2015. If Burr had retired, the seat was expected to draw significant interest, with potential Republican candidates including U.S. representatives George Holding, Mark Meadows, and Robert Pittenger, Labor Commissioner Cherie Berry, Lieutenant Governor Dan Forest, Agriculture Commissioner Steve Troxler, State Senator Phil Berger, and former Ambassador to Denmark James P. Cain.

Candidates

Declared Greg Brannon, physician, Tea Party activist and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014 Richard Burr, incumbent U.S. senator Larry Holmquist, businessman and Tea Party activist Paul Wright, former Superior Court judge, candidate for governor in 2012 and nominee for NC-04 in 2014

Declined Mark Meadows, U.S. representative (running for re-election)

Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror RichardBurr GregBrannon PaulWright LarryHolmquist UndecidedPublic Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling March 11–13, 2016 749 ±3.6% 48% 20% 4% 3% 24%High Point UniversityHigh Point University March 9–10, 2016 734 ±2.5% 56% 20% 5% 3% 17%SurveyUSASurveyUSA March 4–7, 2016 688 ±3.8% 45% 17% 7% 4% 27%SurveyUSASurveyUSA February 14–16, 2016 437 ±2.8% 45% 14% 6% 6% 30%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling February 14–16, 2016 597 ±4.0% 56% 13% 4% 3% 24%High Point UniversityHigh Point University January 30 – February 4, 2016 477 ±4.5% 46% 10% 5% 2% 37%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling January 18–19, 2016 433 ±3.2% 55% 10% 6% 5% 24%

Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror RichardBurr MarkMeadows UndecidedPublic Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling July 2–6, 2015 288 ± 5.8% 62% 9% 28%

Results

Democratic primary Candidates Declared Kevin Griffin, businessman Ernest Reeves, retired U.S. Army captain, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014 and candidate for mayor of Greenville in 2015 Chris Rey, mayor of Spring Lake Deborah Ross, former state representative

Declined Dan Blue, Minority Leader of the North Carolina Senate and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2002 Roy Cooper, North Carolina attorney general (running for governor) Janet Cowell, North Carolina State Treasurer Cal Cunningham, former state senator and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010 Joel Ford, state senator Anthony Foxx, United States Secretary of Transportation and former mayor of Charlotte Kay Hagan, former U.S. senator Duane Hall, state representative Larry Hall, Minority Leader of the North Carolina House of Representatives Jeff Jackson, state senator Allen Joines, mayor of Winston-Salem (running for re-election) Grier Martin, state representative Nancy McFarlane, Independent mayor of Raleigh Mike McIntyre, former U.S. representative Charles Meeker, former mayor of Raleigh (running for labor commissioner) Brad Miller, former U.S. representative Thomas W. Ross, outgoing president of the University of North Carolina system Heath Shuler, former U.S. representative Josh Stein, state senator (running for attorney general) Allen M. Thomas, mayor of Greenville Beth Wood, state auditor (running for re-election)

Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror KevinGriffin ErnestReeves ChrisRey DeborahRoss UndecidedPublic Policy Polling March 11–13, 2016 746 ±3.6% 4% 8% 8% 40% 41%High Point University March 9–10, 2016 669 ±2.5% 9% 5% 7% 52% 27%SurveyUSA March 4–7, 2016 687 ±3.8% 7% 6% 9% 34% 44%SurveyUSA February 14–16, 2016 449 ±2.8% 7% 3% 5% 30% 55%Public Policy Polling February 14–16, 2016 575 ±4.1% 10% 2% 10% 22% 55%High Point University January 30 – February 4, 2016 478 ±4.5% 6% 4% 5% 19% 66%Public Policy Polling January 18–19, 2016 461 ±3.2% 14% 3% 10% 19% 55%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling December 5–7, 2015 555 ±2.8% 15% - 5% 41% 39%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling October 23–25, 2015 421 ±4.8% 16% - 6% 33% 45%

Results

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declared Sean Haugh, pizza delivery man and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2002 and 2014

General election

Candidates Richard Burr (R), incumbent U.S. senator Sean Haugh (L), pizza delivery man and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2002 and 2014 Deborah Ross (D), former state representative

Debates Dates Location Burr Ross LinkOctober 13, 2016Chapel Hill, North CarolinaParticipantParticipantFull debate

Endorsements

Predictions Source Ranking As of The Cook Political Report November 2, 2016 Sabato's Crystal Ball November 7, 2016 Rothenberg Political Report November 3, 2016 Daily Kos November 8, 2016 Real Clear Politics November 7, 2016

Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror RichardBurr (R) DeborahRoss (D) SeanHaugh (L) Other UndecidedSurveyMonkeySurveyMonkey November 1–7, 2016 3,126 ±4.6% 43% 47% 6% – 4%New York Times Upshot/Siena CollegeNew York Times Upshot/Siena College November 4–6, 2016 800 ±3.5% 46% 45% – – 9%Quinnipiac UniversityQuinnipiac University November 3–6, 2016 870 ±3.3% 47% 47% – 1% 4%SurveyMonkeySurveyMonkey October 31 – November 6, 2016 2,865 ±4.6% 44% 47% 6% – 3%Breitbart/Gravis MarketingBreitbart/Gravis Marketing November 1–4, 2016 1,250 ±2.8% 47% 48% – – 5%SurveyMonkeySurveyMonkey October 28 – November 3, 2016 2,292 ±4.6% 44% 47% 6% – 3%SurveyMonkeySurveyMonkey October 27 – November 2, 2016 1,886 ±4.6% 44% 47% 6% – 3%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling October 31 – November 1, 2016 1,169 ±2.9% 48% 45% – – 7%Quinnipiac UniversityQuinnipiac University October 27 – November 1, 2016 602 ±4.0% 45% 49% – 1% 5%SurveyMonkeySurveyMonkey October 26 – November 1, 2016 1,617 ±4.6% 43% 47% 6% – 4%SurveyUSASurveyUSA October 28–31, 2016 659 ±3.9% 49% 43% 2% – 6%SurveyMonkeySurveyMonkey October 25–31, 2016 1,574 ±4.6% 43% 47% 7% – 3%CBS News/YouGovCBS News/YouGov October 26–28, 2016 992 ±4.1% 44% 44% – 1% 10%Emerson CollegeEmerson College October 26–27, 2016 650 ±3.8% 48% 44% – 3% 6%Elon University PollElon University Poll October 23–27, 2016 710 ±3.7% 44% 40% 3% – 11%Breitbart/Gravis MarketingBreitbart/Gravis Marketing October 25–26, 2016 1,273 ±2.8% 45% 48% – – 7%NBC/WSJ/MaristNBC/WSJ/Marist October 25–26, 2016 780 LV ±3.5% 48% 48% – 2% 3% 1,018 RV ±3.1% 48% 46% – 2% 4%Quinnipiac UniversityQuinnipiac University October 20–26, 2016 702 ±3.7% 48% 47% – – 5%New York Times Upshot/Siena CollegeNew York Times Upshot/Siena College October 20–23, 2016 792 ±3.5% 46% 47% – – 7%Monmouth UniversityMonmouth University October 20–23, 2016 402 ±4.9% 49% 43% 2% – 5%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling October 21–22, 2016 875 ±3.3% 42% 41% 6% – 11%The Times-Picayune/LucidThe Times-Picayune/Lucid October 17–18, 2016 924 ±3.0% 46% 44% – – 10%SurveyUSASurveyUSA October 14–18, 2016 651 ±3.9% 45% 43% 6% – 6%Civitas Institute (R)Civitas Institute (R) October 14–17, 2016 600 ±4.0% 44% 37% 4% – 11%Washington Post/SurveyMonkeyWashington Post/SurveyMonkey October 8–16, 2016 1,191 ±0.5% 42% 48% – 7% 3%CNN/ORCCNN/ORC October 10–15, 2016 788 LV ±3.5% 48% 47% – – 2% 929 RV ±3.0% 46% 49% – 1% 2%NBC/WSJ/MaristNBC/WSJ/Marist October 10–12, 2016 743 LV ±3.6% 46% 46% – 2% 6% 1,025 RV ±3.1% 45% 46% – 2% 7%Emerson CollegeEmerson College October 10–12, 2016 600 ±3.9% 45% 43% – 3% 8%Suffolk UniversitySuffolk University October 10–12, 2016 500 ±4.4% 40% 36% 6% – 16%NCSU Pack PollNCSU Pack Poll October 3–6, 2016 895 ±3.0% 39% 49% 12% – 0%High Point UniversityHigh Point University October 1–6, 2016 479 ±4.5% 47% 42% 6% – 4%SurveyUSASurveyUSA September 29 – October 3, 2016 656 ±3.9% 46% 44% 3% – 7%Bloomberg/SelzerBloomberg/Selzer September 29 – October 3, 2016 805 ±3.5% 44% 46% – – 11%Quinnipiac UniversityQuinnipiac University September 27 – October 2, 2016 507 ±4.4% 46% 46% – – 7%Elon University PollElon University Poll September 27–30, 2016 660 ±3.8% 43% 44% 4% – 8%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling September 27–28, 2016 861 ±3.3% 41% 39% 6% – 14% 46% 42% – – 12%Breitbart/Gravis MarketingBreitbart/Gravis Marketing September 23, 2016 694 ±3.7% 39% 48% – – 13%Meredith CollegeMeredith College September 18–22, 2016 487 ±4.4% 35% 38% 1% 7% 19%High Point UniversityHigh Point University September 17–22, 2016 404 ±4.9% 45% 43% 4% – 6%FOX NewsFOX News September 18–20, 2016 734 LV ±3.5% 43% 37% 6% – 12% 800 RV 42% 36% 7% – 13%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling September 18–20, 2016 1,024 ±3.1% 41% 41% 4% – 15%New York Times Upshot/Siena CollegeNew York Times Upshot/Siena College September 16–19, 2016 782 ±3.6% 42% 46% – – 11%Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy CorpsGreenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps September 10–19, 2016 400 ±4.0% 46% 30% – 3% 21%Elon University PollElon University Poll September 12–16, 2016 644 ±3.9% 43% 44% 4% – 9%Civitas Institute (R)Civitas Institute (R) September 11–12, 2016 600 ±4.0% 44% 39% 2% – 15%Suffolk UniversitySuffolk University September 5–7, 2016 500 ±4.4% 41% 37% 4% – 16%Quinnipiac UniversityQuinnipiac University August 29 – September 7, 2016 751 ±3.6% 49% 43% – – 8%CBS News/YouGovCBS News/YouGov August 30 – September 2, 2016 1,088 ±4.0% 40% 41% – 2% 17%Emerson CollegeEmerson College August 27–29, 2016 800 ±3.4% 45% 41% – 5% 14%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling August 26–27, 2016 1,177 ±3.0% 46% 43% – – 12%Monmouth UniversityMonmouth University August 20–23, 2016 401 ±4.9% 45% 43% 4% – 8%CNN/ORCCNN/ORC August 18–23, 2016 803 ±3.5% 50% 45% – – 5%NBC/WSJ/MaristNBC/WSJ/Marist August 4–10, 2016 921 ±3.2% 44% 46% – 1% 9%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling August 5–7, 2016 830 ±3.4% 41% 37% 5% – 17%NBC/WSJ/MaristNBC/WSJ/Marist July 5–11, 2016 907 ±3.3% 48% 41% – 1% 10%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling June 20–21, 2016 947 ±3.2% 40% 37% 5% – 18%Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy CorpsGreenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps June 11–20, 2016 300 ±5.7% 36% 38% – – 26%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling May 20–22, 2016 928 ±3.2% 39% 36% 8% – 18%Civitas Institute (R)Civitas Institute (R) April 23–25, 2016 600 ±4.0% 39% 38% 7% – 16%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling April 22–24, 2016 960 ±3.2% 40% 36% 7% – 17%Elon University Poll April 10–15, 2016 621 ±3.9% 37% 33% – – 30%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling March 18–20, 2016 843 ±3.4% 40% 35% 7% – 18%High Point University March 9–10, 2016 1,576 ±2.5% 48% 41% – – 11%SurveyUSA February 14–16, 2016 1,250 ±2.8% 45% 37% – – 18%Public Policy Polling February 14–16, 2016 1,291 ±2.7% 43% 37% – – 20%Public Policy Polling January 18–19, 2016 948 ±3.2% 43% 33% – – 23%Public Policy Polling December 5–7, 2015 1,214 ±2.8% 46% 35% – – 19%Public Policy Polling October 23–25, 2015 893 ±3.3% 43% 39% – – 18%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling September 24–27, 2015 1,268 ±2.8% 45% 34% – – 21%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling August 12–16, 2015 957 ±3.2% 43% 36% – – 21%

With Burr