The 2004 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 21 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Pennsylvania was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by a 2.50% margin of victory. Although no Republican carried this state in a presidential election since Bush's father George H. W. Bush in 1988, early polling showed the race was a toss-up, thus was considered as a possible target for the Republicans. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered this a toss-up, or a crucial swing state. Later polling favored Kerry, leading half of the news organizations to predict that Kerry would win the state, but the other half still considered it a swing state. Although the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in six subsequent elections since 1992, the margins of victory had become smaller over the past elections. On election day, Kerry won the state with 50.92% of the vote, but won only 13 of the 67 counties in Pennsylvania. Most of these 13 counties have the highest populations in the commonwealth. The biggest key to Kerry's victory was winning Philadelphia County with 80.44% of the vote.

Bush was the first president elected to two terms in office without carrying Pennsylvania either time since Woodrow Wilson in 1912 and 1916, and is to date the only Republican presidential candidate to win the presidency without carrying the state at least once, as well as the most recent Republican to win without the state. Although Pennsylvania was also not carried by the winner of the 2000 presidential race, this election also marked the first time since 1968 that Pennsylvania voted against the winner of the national popular vote.

As of 2024, this is the most recent election to date in which Pennsylvania would vote for the losing candidate, thus the state is tied with Wisconsin and Michigan for the longest bellwether streak in the nation. This was also only the third and most recent time since 1948 (after 2000 and 1968) that it would vote for the losing candidate.

Primaries Eligibility In order to vote in the primary, one must have been: "A citizen of the United States for at least one month before the next primary, special, municipal, or general election." "A resident of Pennsylvania and the election district in which the individual desires to register and vote for at least 30 days before the next primary, special, municipal, or general election." "At least 18 years of age on or before the day of the next primary, special, municipal, or general election." A registered member of the party holding the primary

Convicted felons could not vote from prison and were not allowed to register to vote for five years after being released from prison.

Registration Individuals could register to vote at County Voter Registration offices, through the mail, at a Department of Transportation office, or at various other government agency offices.

Voters must have been registered 30 days prior to the election in order to be eligible to vote.

Democratic primary election

The Democratic primary took place on April 27, 2004. It was open to registered Democrats only.

Results +100% of precincts reporting Candidate Votes Percentage Delegates John Kerry 585,683 74.1% 150 Howard Dean 79,799 10.1% 1 John Edwards 76,762 9.7% 0 Dennis Kucinich 30,110 3.8% 0 Lyndon LaRouche 17,528 2.2% 0 Uncommitted - 2.2% 27 Total 789,882 100% 178

Note: 27 delegates remained uncommitted until they reached the floor of the convention. Kerry eventually received all 178 delegates from Pennsylvania.Pennsylvania Democratic Delegation 2004

Republican primary election The Republican primary took place on April 27, 2004. It was open to registered Republicans only. Incumbent President George W. Bush ran unopposed.

General election Predictions There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.

+SourceRankingD.C. Political ReportAssociated PressCNNCook Political ReportNewsweekNew York TimesRasmussen ReportsResearch 2000Washington PostWashington TimesZogby InternationalWashington Dispatch

Polling Al Gore won Pennsylvania in 2000 with just over 50% of the vote. In late October 2004, the state was split at 47% on whether or not to approve of Bush. But Kerry won the poll 48% to 46% in the last Mason Dixon poll.NBC News Throughout the election of 2004, Kerry won most of the polls in the upper 40% to lower 50% range. However, Bush polled within the margin of error, usually in the mid 40% range. In the last Real Clear Politics average Kerry was leading with 48% and by almost a 1% margin.

Fundraising Bush raised $5,030,349. Kerry raised $4,998,861.

Advertising and visits President Bush campaigned heavily and visited the state of Pennsylvania over twenty times in 2004. It was not enough to flip the state, as John Kerry won the undecided Pennsylvanians. He won the state's electors with almost 51% of the vote, outperforming Vice President Al Gore's performance four years earlier.

Analysis This Kerry victory can be attributed to the overwhelmingly Democratic cities of Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Erie. Although Kerry-held cities that voted for the Senator by narrow margins assisted him in advancing his margin over President Bush, many political analysts underscored the fact that if Philadelphia were excluded, President George W. Bush would have won Pennsylvania by a fairly slim margin, with 2,663,748 versus 2,395,890 for Kerry. Although Pennsylvania is closely divided in most elections, it did not vote Republican in a presidential election from 1992 to 2012. As of , Bush remains the only Republican to win two terms without carrying Pennsylvania at least once.

Philadelphia and Pittsburgh were the biggest contributors to Kerry's victory in Pennsylvania. However, many independents in suburban Philadelphia counties (Bucks, Delaware, Montgomery, and somewhat in Chester) voted for Kerry, which may well have been the deciding factor. Kerry also had narrow margins of victory around cities like Allentown, Scranton, Erie, and the traditionally Democratic Pittsburgh suburbs; he also garnered many votes in certain rural areas such as parts of the Poconos and the Laurel Highlands, and in cities like Reading, Johnstown, Harrisburg, and State College. Bush's margins were extremely large in central Pennsylvania and the sparsely populated Northern Tier, with traditional GOP cities such as Lancaster, Lebanon, York, Altoona, Huntingdon, and Williamsport strongly throwing their support behind him. This area, along with rural western Maryland, was the most conservative in the Mid-Atlantic.

, this is the last presidential election that the Democratic candidate won Washington County, Beaver County and Fayette County. This is also the last election in which Dauphin County and Centre County voted for the Republican candidate. This is also the last time that Chester County gave a majority to a Republican, although Mitt Romney did win the county with a plurality in 2012. This is the last time Democrats won a majority of congressional districts in the state.

Results 2004 United States presidential election in PennsylvaniaPartyCandidateVotesPercentageElectoral votes Democratic John Kerry 2,938,095 50.92% 21 Republican George W. Bush (incumbent) 2,793,847 48.42% 0 Libertarian Michael Badnarik 21,185 0.37% 0 Green David Cobb 6,319 0.11% 0 Constitution Michael Peroutka 6,318 0.11% 0 Independent Ralph Nader (write-in) 2,656 0.05% 0 Independent Write-ins 1,170 0.02% 0 Totals 5,769,590 100.00% 21 Voter turnout (voting age population) 60.5%

By county