2014 United States Senate special election in Oklahoma

The 2014 United States Senate special election in Oklahoma took place on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Oklahoma, concurrently with the regularly-scheduled election to Oklahoma's other Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

This special election was held to fill the remaining two years of incumbent Republican Senator Tom Coburn's second term. Coburn, a strong supporter of term limits, had announced even before he was elected to the Senate in 2004 that he would only serve for two terms. After he was re-elected in 2010, he reaffirmed that he would not run for re-election in 2016.

In January 2014, Coburn announced he would resign early at the end of the 113th United States Congress on January 3, 2015. As pursuant to Oklahoma law, he submitted an "irrevocable letter of resignation" to take effect on that day. Thus, the special election was held while he was still in office.

Unlike most states, except in very specific circumstances, Oklahoma Governor Mary Fallin did not have the power to appoint a replacement senator. Instead, state law required her to schedule the special election "as soon as practicable".

Primary elections were held on June 24, 2014. The Republicans nominated U.S. Representative James Lankford; as no candidate in the Democratic primary received more than 50% of the vote, a primary runoff election was held on August 26 between State Senator Connie Johnson and perennial candidate Jim Rogers, which Johnson won. In the general election, Lankford defeated Johnson in a landslide (winning every county) and was sworn in on the day Coburn's resignation took effect. When Lankford won re-election in 2016 and 2022, he won every county both times.

Republican primary By April 2014, Lankford and T.W. Shannon were seen as the main contenders for the Republican nomination, with Brogdon a potential spoiler who was running even further to the right than they did. Although there was reported to be "little daylight ideologically" between Lankford and Shannon, and both are associated with the Tea Party movement, Shannon attracted the support of figures including Ted Cruz, Mike Lee and Sarah Palin and organizations including FreedomWorks and the Senate Conservatives Fund. They criticized Lankford for his votes to raise the debt ceiling and for being a member of the Republican House leadership. Supporters of Lankford, including the chairman of the Oklahoma Republican Party, pointed out Shannon's ties to the establishment-supporting Congressman Tom Cole, accused Cruz, Lee, Palin and the others of being "outsiders" who were attempting to meddle in the state's primary, and also pointed out that the aforementioned had previously criticized Coburn, whom they were now praising in an attempt to woo him into supporting Shannon. Local Tea Party groups also criticised the national conservatives, saying in an open letter that they had endorsed Shannon without consulting them or examining his record, that Shannon was a "poser" who "had never stepped foot" in a Tea Party meeting before announcing his run for the Senate and "no longer attends grassroots meetings nor does he seek the grassroots support".

In June, Coburn responded to attack ads calling Lankford a "Washington insider" who "votes with liberals" by saying that "political advertisements by groups... supporting T.W. Shannon have crossed an important line — they simply aren't truthful and they mischaracterize James Lankford's service in Congress." He also called Lankford "a man of absolute integrity" who was "one of the most honest, thoughtful and sincere men I have met in my time in Washington." He also praised Lankford's "life experience", "perspective" and willingness to fight the "status quo", but stopped short of fully endorsing him. He did however say that "as a voter", the negative ads from pro-Shannon groups made him question Shannon's ability to govern.

By mid-June, Lankford was considered to have the momentum, a reversal of fortunes, though a runoff was considered likely. Shannon's negative advertisements were considered to have backfired, in contrast to Lankford's advertisements, which were largely positive. Lankford also raised and spent more money than Shannon, who was not significantly helped financially by national conservative groups, who had focused their attention on the primary runoff in Mississippi between incumbent senator Thad Cochran and conservative challenger Chris McDaniel. The runoff in Mississippi was held on the same day as the primary in Oklahoma and Alexandra Jaffe of The Hill reported that Shannon's best hope was to force a runoff, which would allow the national groups to refocus on Oklahoma. Outside spending for Shannon was $1.8m compared to $170,000 for Lankford but Lankford spent $1.8m to Shannon's $1.1m.

In what was considered a surprise result, Lankford defeated Shannon by over 20%, negating the need for a runoff. Lankford ran a strong, well-organised campaign, considered by Congressman Tom Cole to be "probably the best organization in the state that was operating at this time". He was also helped by his "existing statewide presence grounded in the state's burgeoning Baptist community", which goes back to his time before politics when he ran the Falls Creek Baptist Youth Camp, and the fact that his congressional district is based in Oklahoma City, where turnout was predicted to be high because there was also a competitive race in the Republican primary to succeed him. To attempt to counteract that, Shannon targeted the media market in Tulsa. Finally, unlike in other races, there was no split between the establishment and the Tea Party, with Shannon not capitalising on an "anti-establishment" wave that benefited others like Ben Sasse in Nebraska. Cole summarised: "We don't need people coming in and telling us who conservatives are, [because] everybody is a conservative. There are no moderates." State Senator David Holt, who supported Shannon, said that Coburn's comments about Lankford were the most important factor, saying that "Senator Coburn is enormously respected in Oklahoma, and when it appeared that he had a preference, I think that the voters listened."

Candidates Declared Randy Brogdon, former state senator and candidate for Governor in 2010 Andy Craig, Army Veteran and sales professional Kevin Crow, college professor James Lankford, U.S. Representative Eric McCray, businessman T. W. Shannon, state representative and former Speaker of the Oklahoma House of Representatives Jason Weger, paramedic

Declined Jim Bridenstine, U.S. Representative Tom Cole, U.S. Representative Patrice Douglas, State Corporation Commissioner and former mayor of Edmond (running for OK-05) Mary Fallin, Governor of Oklahoma Frank Keating, former governor of Oklahoma Todd Lamb, Lieutenant Governor of Oklahoma Frank Lucas, U.S. Representative Markwayne Mullin, U.S. Representative Scott Pruitt, Attorney General of Oklahoma J. C. Watts, former U.S. Representative

Endorsements

Polling Poll source RandyBrogdon AndyCraig KevinCrow JamesLankford EricMcCray T.W.Shannon J. C.Watts JasonWeger Other UndecidedHarper PollingHarper Polling 627 ± 3.91% — — — 37% — 8% 40% 2% — 13% — — — 54% — 18% — 1% — 27%Tarrance Group*Tarrance Group* February 10–12, 2014 500 ± 4.9% — — 3% 47% — 17% — — — 33%Public Opinion StrategiesPublic Opinion Strategies February 9–11, 2014 ? ± ? — — — 51% — 16% — — 1% 32%Public Opinion StrategiesPublic Opinion Strategies March 16–17, 2014 500 ± 4.38% 7% — — 37% — 28% — — 3% 25%Public Opinion Strategies April 21–22, 2014 500 ± 4.48% 7% — — 32% — 42% — — 3% 16%NSON Opinion StrategyNSON Opinion Strategy April 23–29, 2014 400 ± ? 3.5% 1% 0.3% 30.8% — 32% — — 1.0% 32.5%American ViewpointAmerican Viewpoint April 27–29, 2014 ? ± ? — — — 36% — 34% — — ? ?SoonerPollSoonerPoll May 5–10, 2014 580 ± 4.07% 4.5% 0.6% 1.7% 33.8% 0.6% 31.9% — 1.5% — 25.4%Tarrance Group* May 12–14, 2014 501 ± 4.5% 5% — — 43% — 33% — — — 18%American Viewpoint May 27–29, 2014 500 ± 4.4% 4% — — 48% — 26% — — 3% 18%Public Opinion StrategiesPublic Opinion Strategies June 7–9, 2014 600 ± 4.81% — — — 39% — 37% — — 6% 18%Tarrance Group*Tarrance Group* June 9–11, 2014 500 ± 4.5% — — — 41% — 34% — — 7% 18%SoonerPollSoonerPoll June 14–18, 2014 415 ± 4.81% 3% — — 41% — 38% — — 2% 16%SoonerPollSoonerPoll June 19–21, 2014 840 ± 3.38% 4.2% 0.4% 1.4% 43.4% 0.9% 34.9% — 1.5% — 13.3%

* Internal poll for James Lankford campaign

Poll source RandyBrogdon JamesLankford UndecidedNSON Opinion Strategy April 23–29, 2014 400 ± ? 10.2% 50% 39.8%

Poll source JamesLankford T.W.Shannon UndecidedNSON Opinion Strategy April 23–29, 2014 400 ± ? 30.2% 38.2% 31.5%

Results

Democratic primary Candidates Declared Patrick Hayes Connie Johnson, state senator Jim Rogers, perennial candidate and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010

Withdrew Charles Jenkins, retired federal employee

Declined Bill Anoatubby, Governor of the Chickasaw Nation Jari Askins, former lieutenant governor of Oklahoma and nominee for governor in 2010 Dan Boren, former U.S. Representative Clark Brewster, attorney Kenneth Corn, former state senator and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2010 Drew Edmondson, former attorney general of Oklahoma and candidate for governor in 2010 Kathy Taylor, former mayor of Tulsa

Endorsements

Polling Poll source PatrickHayes ConnieJohnson JimRogers Other UndecidedSoonerPollSoonerPoll May 5–10, 2014 631 ± 3.9% 5% 9.2% 9.4% — 76.3%SoonerPoll June 19–21, 2014 781 ± 3.5% 6.4% 13.2% 5.4% — 75.1%

Results

Runoff

Independents Candidates Declared Mark Beard

General election Debates Complete video of debate, October 7, 2014

Predictions Source Ranking As of The Cook Political Report November 3, 2014 Sabato's Crystal Ball November 3, 2014 Rothenberg Political Report November 3, 2014 Real Clear Politics November 3, 2014

Polling Poll source JamesLankford (R) ConnieJohnson (D) Other UndecidedCBS News/NYT/YouGovCBS News/NYT/YouGov July 5–24, 2014 1,302 ± 4.7% 56% 34% 6% 5%RasmussenRasmussen August 27–28, 2014 750 ± 4% 58% 29% 6% 7%Sooner PollSooner Poll August 28–30, 2014 603 ± 3.99% 58% 28% 3% 11%CBS News/NYT/YouGovCBS News/NYT/YouGov August 18 – September 2, 2014 821 ± 5% 61% 28% 1% 10%Sooner PollSooner Poll September 27–29, 2014 400 ± 4.9% 56% 28% 4% 12%CBS News/NYT/YouGovCBS News/NYT/YouGov September 20 – October 1, 2014 1,244 ± 3% 65% 24% 0% 11%CBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 2014 995 ± 5% 63% 29% 0% 8%Sooner PollSooner Poll October 25–29, 2014 949 ± 3.18% 59% 28% 4%Mark Beard (I) 9%

Results

2014 United States Senate special election in Oklahoma

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