A special election for Florida's 13th congressional district was held March 11, 2014, to elect a member of the United States House of Representatives, following the death of incumbent Republican Congressman Bill Young on October 18, 2013. Primary elections were held on January 14, 2014. Young, who had already announced that he would not be running for re-election in 2014, had been re-elected in 2012 with 57 percent of the vote. With 100% of the precincts reporting, David Jolly was declared the winner.
Background On October 9, 2013, Republican Bill Young, who had held this Tampa Bay-area district since 1971, announced that he would not run for re-election to a twenty-second term in 2014. He died nine days later and this special election was called to fill his seat. Though Young had been re-elected by wide margins, the district in recent years had become competitive. In the four most recent presidential elections, it was won by Al Gore over George W. Bush in 2000 51%-49%, by Bush with 51%-49% in 2004, by Barack Obama over John McCain 51%-47% and again carried by Obama in 2012 by a narrower 50%-49% over Mitt Romney. Given this, some political commentators and journalists viewed this election as a bellwether for the fall 2014 elections.Kucinich, Jackie (November 22, 2013). In Fla., late Rep. Young's purple-trending district will test waters for 2014 midterms. The Washington Post. The Hill CNN Orlando Sentinel New York Magazine Sunshine State News WSJ WWSB While discounting the idea of special elections as bellwethers, political scientists agreed the result was a data point that public sentiment favored Republicans.
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared Mark Bircher, retired United States Marine Corps brigadier general David Jolly, attorney and former general counsel to Bill Young Kathleen Peters, state representative
Declined Larry Ahern, state representative Joseph Ayoub, mayor of Safety Harbor Rick Baker, former mayor of St. Petersburg Neil Brickfield, former Pinellas County commissioner George Cretekos, mayor of Clearwater Larry Crow, former state representative Bob Gualtieri, Pinellas County sheriff Frank Hibbard, former mayor of Clearwater Michael Pinson, publisher Karen Seel, Pinellas County commissioner Beverly Young, widow of Bill Young Bill "Billy" Young II, son of Bill Young Tom Young, brother of Bill Young
Endorsements
Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror MarkBircher DavidJolly KathleenPeters UndecidedSt. Pete PollsSt. Pete Polls January 9, 2014 653 ± 3.8% 26.3% 36.5% 23.9% 13.3%Gravis MarketingGravis Marketing January 8, 2014 976 ± 3% 25% 34% 28% 14%St. Pete PollsSt. Pete Polls December 30, 2013 488 ± 4.4% 17.7% 39.4% 27.7% 15.1%St. Pete PollsSt. Pete Polls December 18, 2013 660 ± 3.8% 16.1% 34.9% 30.2% 18.9%St. Pete PollsSt. Pete Polls December 3, 2013 534 ± 4.2% 17.2% 27.8% 27.1% 28.0%
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror RickBaker NeilBrickfield LarryCrow FrankHibbard DavidJolly KathleenPeters KarenSeel Other UndecidedSt. Pete PollsSt. Pete Polls November 18, 2013 582 ± 4.1% — — — — 39.2% 17.3% — 30.9% 12.6%St. Pete PollsSt. Pete Polls November 5, 2013 498 ± 4.4% — 16.8% — 15% 18.7% — — 28.7% 20.8%St. Pete PollsSt. Pete Polls October 15, 2013 742 ± 3.6% 51% 7% 4% — 2% — 10% 27% —
Results
Democratic nomination
Candidates
Nominee Alex Sink, former chief financial officer of Florida and nominee for governor of Florida in 2010
Withdrew Jessica Ehrlich, attorney and nominee for the 13th congressional district in 2012
Declined Charlie Justice, Pinellas County commissioner and nominee for Florida's 10th congressional district in 2010 Janet Long, Pinellas County commissioner
Endorsements
Polling
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror JessicaEhrlich AlexSink Other UndecidedSt. Pete Polls November 5, 2013 367 ± 5.1% 10.6% 69.6% 10.7% 9.1%St. Pete Polls October 15, 2013 706 ± 3.7% 20% 63% 10% 7%
General election
Candidates David Jolly (Republican), attorney and former general counsel to Bill Young Michael S. Levinson (write-in) Lucas Overby (Libertarian), commercial diver and activist Alex Sink (Democratic), former Chief Financial Officer of Florida and nominee for governor of Florida in 2010
One voter was confused by a website called "sinkforcongress2014" accepting donations to the National Republican Congressional Committee to defeat Sink and other Democrats, thinking it was a pro-Sink website. His $250 donation was refunded by the NRCC.
Debates David Jolly, Lucas Overby, and Alex Sink, the three candidates appearing on the ballot for the special election, took part in a televised debate on February 3, 2014. Held at the Seminole Campus of St. Petersburg College and co-hosted by the Tampa Bay Times and Bay News 9, the event aired live on C-SPAN 3. Al Ruechel, Adam Smith, and Amy Hollyfield served as moderators. The debate can be viewed in its entirety here.
A non-scientific poll conducted after the debate by Bay News 9 indicated that overall viewers felt David Jolly had won with 37% of the vote, followed by Alex Sink with 33% and Lucas Overby with 30%.
Campaign spending During the campaign, OpenSecrets reported on February 13, 2014, that outside groups had spent $3.5 million on the election, with $2.6 million of that from groups that support Jolly. This makes it the most expensive election of the 2014 cycle so far and one of the most expensive special congressional elections in history.
The Associated Press reported that $11 million total was spent as the Democratic Party poured money into the campaign in its final weeks. In the end, Sink outspent Jolly by three to one on television ads, as well as outspending him overall.
Endorsements
Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror DavidJolly (R) AlexSink (D) LucasOverby (L) UndecidedPublic Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling March 7–9, 2014 702 ± 3.7% 45% 48% 6% 2%RedRacingHorses & PMI inc. February 25–27, 2014 391 ± 6% 46% 44% 5% 5%St. Pete PollsSt. Pete Polls February 25, 2014 1,269 ± 2.8% 45.6% 45.9% 6.4% 2.1%Fabrizio, Lee & AssociatesFabrizio, Lee & Associates February 17–18, 2014 400 ± 4.9% 44% 42% — 14%St. Pete PollsSt. Pete Polls February 12, 2014 1,130 ± 2.9% 46.2% 44% 6.6% 2.4%St. Leo UniversitySt. Leo University February 9–11, 2014 400 ± 5% 37% 46% 12% 5%Braun ResearchBraun Research February 4–9, 2014 603 ± 4% 35% 42% 4% 14%DCCCDCCC January 24, 2014 527 ± 4.3% 45% 49% — 6%McLaughlin & AssociatesMcLaughlin & Associates January 16–19, 2014 400 ± 4.9% 43% 38% 4% 15%St. Pete PollsSt. Pete Polls January 15, 2014 1,278 ± 2.7% 47% 42.8% 4.4% 5.9%St. Pete Polls December 3, 2013 1,128 ± 2.9% 36.3% 49% 5.6% 8.8%St. Pete Polls November 18, 2013 1,252 ± 2.8% 34.9% 49.3% — 15.7%St. Pete Polls November 5, 2013 1,079 ± 3% 31% 51.5% — 17.5%
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror RickBaker (R) JessicaEhrlich (D) UndecidedSt. Pete Polls October 15, 2013 1,741 ± 2.3% 34.6% 30.7% 34.7%
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror RickBaker (R) AlexSink (D) UndecidedSt. Pete Polls October 15, 2013 1,741 ± 2.3% 34.0% 50.8% 15.2%
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror MarkBircher (R) AlexSink (D) UndecidedSt. Pete Polls December 3, 2013 1,128 ± 2.9% 30.2% 50.4% 12.1%
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror NeilBrickfield (R) AlexSink (D) UndecidedSt. Pete Polls November 5, 2013 1,079 ± 3% 30.1% 51.2% 18.8%St. Pete Polls October 15, 2013 1,741 ± 2.3% 24.0% 56.6% 19.4%
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror FrankHibbard (R) AlexSink (D) UndecidedSt. Pete Polls November 5, 2013 1,079 ± 3% 30.7% 51.6% 17.7%
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror KathleenPeters (R) AlexSink (D) UndecidedSt. Pete Polls December 3, 2013 1,128 ± 2.9% 34.6% 47.7% 12.2%St. Pete Polls November 18, 2013 1,252 ± 2.8% 30.7% 49.7% 19.6%
Results
References
External links Mark Bircher David Jolly
Lucas Overby Kathleen Peters Alex Sink Nick Zoller