A regional election was held in Andalusia on 22 March 2015 to elect the 10th Parliament of the autonomous community. All 109 seats in the Parliament were up for election.
President Susana Díaz chose to terminate the coalition government between her Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE–A) and United Left (IULV–CA), dissolving the Parliament and calling a snap election for 22 March 2015. Andalusia had been traditionally considered a PSOE stronghold, being the only region in Spain in which no other party had led the regional government since the Spanish transition to democracy.
The PSOE–A regained first place from a declining People's Party (PP). Suffering from voters' anger at Mariano Rajoy's national government management of the economic crisis and the corruption scandals affecting the party nationwide, the PP scored its worst result since 1990. The election also saw a strong performance by newcomers Podemos (Spanish for "We can") and Citizens (C's), which faced their first electoral test since the 2014 European Parliament election. IULV–CA was decimated by Podemos's surge and obtained its worst historical showing.
After the election, the PP announced it would block any PSOE attempt to form a government, a shock to many after the party had assured during the electoral campaign that it would allow the most-voted party to access government. Podemos and C's remained reluctant to lend support to Susana Díaz's investiture, whereas IU was not willing to align with the Socialists again after their previous alliance broke up. In the end, however, after the 2015 Spanish regional and municipal elections were held, C's agreed to support Díaz investiture on less harsher conditions than initially required, in order to end the parliamentary deadlock and prevent a new election.
Background Despite losing the 2012 regional election to the People's Party (PP), which won a regional election in Andalusia for the first time since the establishment of the autonomous community, the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) under José Antonio Griñán was able to remain in office for a ninth consecutive term after forming a coalition government with United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia (IULV–CA).
In July 2013, José Antonio Griñán announced his intention to resign from office in order to "preserve the Regional Government from the erosion of the ERE scandal", a large slush fund corruption scheme involving former leading figures of the regional PSOE's branch, including former development minister Magdalena Álvarez, with former Andalusian president Manuel Chaves and himself being accused of knowing and concealing such a plot. Griñán was succeeded by Susana Díaz at the helm of the regional government.
Despite the apparent parliamentary comfort of the ruling coalition, friction between both PSOE and IU remained an issue throughout the entire legislature, especially after Susana Díaz took over the government in September 2013. In April 2014, an episode of IU's housing counsellor awarding several government houses to homeless families without the president's consent resulted in the counsellor seeing her competences removed and in the coalition pact nearly breaking up. In January 2015, tension between both coalition partners reached its peak after IU proposed holding a referendum among its members in June 2015 on whether to remain or withdraw from the government. In response, Susana Díaz declared that "we need a government which enjoys a stability that currently does not exist", opening the door for a snap election to be held within a short time. On 20 January Díaz met all eight PSOE provincial leaders in order to seek support within the party for a snap election in March 2015, which she received; subsequently, mutual attacks between both PSOE and IU, accusing each other of breaching the coalition agreement, made it clear that the only solution to the ongoing governmental crisis would come by the calling of a snap election.
On 17 February 2015, one month short of the election, the Spanish Supreme Court charged former Andalusian presidents Manuel Chaves and José Antonio Griñán in the ERE scandal for their possible responsibility in the misuse of the misappropriated public funds. The PSOE insisted on the same day that it would not require Chaves and Griñán to give up their seats in the Congress of Deputies and Senate, despite both incumbent president Susana Díaz and PSOE leader Pedro Sánchez having assured in the past that they would do so in the event of both of them being charged.
Overview Under the 2007 Statute of Autonomy, the Parliament of Andalusia was the unicameral legislature of the homonymous autonomous community, having legislative power in devolved matters, as well as the ability to grant or withdraw confidence from a regional president.. The electoral and procedural rules were supplemented by national law provisions..
Date The term of the Parliament of Andalusia expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than 25 days before the scheduled expiration date of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Regional Government of Andalusia (BOJA), with election day taking place 54 days after the decree's publication (barring any date within from 1 July to 31 August).; ( by ). The previous election was held on 25 March 2012, which meant that the chamber's term would have expired on 25 March 2016. The election decree was required to be published in the BOJA no later than 1 March 2016, setting the latest possible date for election day on 24 April 2016.
The regional president had the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Andalusia at any given time and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur before one year after a previous one.; . In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Parliament was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called..
An extraordinary parliamentary plenary session was held on 26 January, where Díaz announced the dissolution of parliament and the subsequent calling of a snap election for 22 March. Díaz herself had previously declared, during a PSOE rally in Seville, that "It is time for the Andalusian people to speak" and "We shall obtain the [people's] confidence in the ballots". Spanish media speculated that the snap election came as a result of different factors; namely, Susana Díaz's private aspirations to the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party's leadership—despite her publicly refusing it—, as well as both Podemos's surge in opinion polls and to prevent the party's exhaustion after all 2015 electoral calls—local and regional in May, Catalan in September and general in autumn—, in a time when opinion polls were still favorable to the PSOE in Andalusia.
The Parliament of Andalusia was officially dissolved on 27 January 2015 with the publication of the corresponding decree in the BOJA, setting election day for 22 March and scheduling for the chamber to reconvene on 16 April..
Electoral system Voting for the Parliament was based on universal suffrage, comprising all Spanish nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Andalusia and with full political rights, provided that they had not been deprived of the right to vote by a final sentence, nor were legally incapacitated.; ( by ). Additionally, non-resident citizens were required to apply for voting, a system known as "begged" voting ()..
The Parliament of Andalusia had a minimum of 109 seats, with electoral provisions fixing its size at that number. All were elected in eight multi-member constituencies—corresponding to the provinces of Almería, Cádiz, Córdoba, Granada, Huelva, Jaén, Málaga and Seville, each of which was assigned an initial minimum of eight seats and the remaining 45 distributed in proportion to population (with the number of seats in each province not exceeding two times that of any other)—using the D'Hondt method and closed-list proportional voting, with a three percent-threshold of valid votes (including blank ballots) in each constituency.; . The use of this electoral method resulted in a higher effective threshold depending on district magnitude and vote distribution.
As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Parliament constituency was entitled the following seats:.
Seats Constituencies 18 Seville 17 Málaga 15 Cádiz 13 Granada 12 Almería, Córdoba 11 Huelva, Jaén
The law did not provide for by-elections to fill vacant seats; instead, any vacancies arising after the proclamation of candidates and during the legislative term were filled by the next candidates on the party lists or, when required, by designated substitutes. ( by ).
Outgoing parliament The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the time of dissolution.
+ Parliamentary composition in January 2015 Groups Parties Legislators Seats Total Andalusian People's Parliamentary Group PP 50 50 Socialist Parliamentary Group PSOE–A 47 47 United Left/The Greens Parliamentary Group IULV–CA 12 12
Parties and candidates The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, alliances and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form an alliance were required to inform the relevant electoral commission within 10 days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list. ( by ). Additionally, a balanced composition of men and women was required in the electoral lists through the use of a zipper system..
Below is a list of the main parties and alliances which contested the election:
Candidacy Parties andalliances Leading candidate Ideology Previous result Vote % Seats PP Juanma Moreno ConservatismChristian democracy 40.7% PSOE–A Susana Díaz Social democracy 39.6% IULV–CA Antonio Maíllo SocialismCommunism 11.3% UPyD Martín de la Herrán Social liberalismRadical centrism 3.4% PA Antonio Jesús Ruiz Andalusian nationalismSocial democracy 2.5% Podemos Teresa Rodríguez Left-wing populismDirect democracyDemocratic socialism colspan="2" Cs Juan Marín Liberalism colspan="2"
Campaign Debates + 2015 Andalusian regional election debates Date Organizer(s) Moderator(s) PP PSOE–A IULV–CA UPyD PA Podemos Cs Audience 9 March RTVA Mabel Mata NI NI NI NI 10.7% 10 March RTVA Rafael Fernández S S S 4.0% 16 March RTVE María Casado NI NI NI NI 14.0%
Opinion polls + Candidate viewed as "performing best" or "most convincing" in each debate Debate Polling firm/Commissioner PP PSOE–A IULV–CA None 9 March Celeste-Tel/PSOE 22.8 43.6 10.1 14.9
Opinion polls The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.
Graphical summary
Voting intention estimates