Pre-election pendulum for the 2014 Victorian state election

The following is a Mackerras pendulum for the 2014 Victorian state election.

The margins are notional figures, calculated by Antony Green for the Victorian Electoral Commission following a redistribution of Victoria's electoral boundaries in 2013. Four seats (Bellarine, Monbulk, Ripon and Yan Yean) are held by the Labor Party, but the redistributed boundaries have made them notionally Liberal-held.

"Very safe" seats require a swing of over 20 per cent to change, "safe" seats require a swing of 10 to 20 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent. Government seatsMarginalWendoureeNew seatLIB0.1%Yan YeanDanielle Green (ALP)LIB0.1%CarrumDonna BauerLIB0.3%BentleighElizabeth MillerLIB0.9%MonbulkJames Merlino (ALP)LIB1.1%MordiallocLorraine WrefordLIB1.5%RiponJoe Helper (ALP)LIB1.6%BellarineLisa Neville (ALP)LIB2.5%Forest HillNeil AngusLIB3.5%PrahranClem Newton-BrownLIB4.7%South BarwonAndrew KatosLIB4.9%Fairly safeBurwoodGraham WattLIB6.3%RingwoodNew seatLIB6.3%BayswaterHeidi VictoriaLIB6.8%EildonNew seatLIB7.7%Mount WaverleyMichael GidleyLIB8.6%GembrookBrad BattinLIB8.8%Box HillRobert ClarkLIB9.4%HastingsNeale BurgessLIB9.6%CaulfieldDavid SouthwickLIB9.8%SafeFerntree GullyNick WakelingLIB11.5%South-West CoastDenis NapthineLIB11.9%CroydonNew seatLIB12.2%BassKen SmithLIB12.4%EvelynChristine FyffeLIB12.6%RowvilleNew seatLIB13.1%MorwellRussell NortheNAT13.3%EuroaNew seatNAT13.6%NepeanMartin DixonLIB13.7%PolwarthTerry MulderLIB13.8%BrightonLouise AsherLIB14.3%MilduraPeter CrispNAT14.5%BulleenNicholas KotsirasLIB15.1%SandringhamMurray ThompsonLIB15.6%KewAndrew McIntoshLIB15.7%BenambraBill TilleyLIB15.9%NarracanGary BlackwoodLIB16.0%MorningtonDavid MorrisLIB16.2%HawthornTed BaillieuLIB16.6%WarrandyteRyan SmithLIB17.2%Ovens ValleyNew seatNAT19.2%Very safeMalvernMichael O'BrienLIB20.5%LowanHugh DelahuntyNAT21.9% Gippsland SouthPeter RyanNAT22.5% Gippsland EastTim BullNAT23.1%SheppartonJeanette PowellNAT25.9% Murray PlainsNew seatNAT30.2% Independent seats − Coalition confidence and supplyFrankstonGeoff ShawIND v ALP2.1%Non-government seatsMarginal ElthamSteve HerbertALP0.8% Albert ParkMartin FoleyALP0.9% CranbourneJude PereraALP1.1% BuninyongNew seatALP1.6% IvanhoeAnthony CarbinesALP1.8% MacedonJoanne DuncanALP2.3% MulgraveDaniel AndrewsALP2.4% Bendigo WestMaree EdwardsALP3.1% Bendigo EastJacinta AllanALP3.2% BrunswickJane GarrettALP v GRN3.6% GeelongIan TreziseALP4.0% EssendonJustin MaddenALP4.3%NiddrieBen CarrollALP4.5% MelbourneJennifer KanisALP v GRN4.7% Narre Warren NorthLuke DonnellanALP4.8%Fairly safe OakleighAnn BarkerALP5.1% RichmondRichard WynneALP v GRN6.4% SunburyNew seatALP6.5% Narre Warren SouthJudith GraleyALP7.4% KeysboroughNew seatALP9.5%Safe NorthcoteFiona RichardsonALP v GRN10.3% BundooraColin BrooksALP10.9% TarneitTim PallasALP11.0% WerribeeNew seatALP11.4% SydenhamNew seatALP11.5% AltonaJill HennessyALP12.4% ClarindaNew seatALP12.4% WilliamstownWade NoonanALP13.2% MeltonDon NardellaALP13.6% LaraJohn ErenALP13.8% DandenongJohn PandazopoulosALP14.0% St AlbansNew seatALP14.0% FootscrayMarsha ThomsonALP15.9% YurokeLiz BeattieALP16.0% Mill ParkLily D'AmbrosioALP16.0% KororoitMarlene KairouzALP17.5% Pascoe ValeChristine CampbellALP18.5% BroadmeadowsFrank McGuireALP20.0%Very safePrestonRobin ScottALP20.2%ThomastownBronwyn HalfpennyALP21.6%

See also Post-election pendulum for the 2010 Victorian state election

References