This article contains opinion polling by U.S. state for the 2012 Republican Party presidential primaries.
As of May 2012, both Ron Paul and Mitt Romney have led polls in multiple states. They have both also reached at least 20 percent in polls in multiple states. Before announcing that they would not run, Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin were also leading polls in multiple states with numbers above 20 percent. Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Rick Perry, and Rick Santorum were also able to lead polls in multiple states earlier in the race, but Cain suspended his campaign on December 3 after multiple allegations of sexual impropriety,James Oliphant, "Herman Cain drops out of presidential race" (December 3, 2011). Los Angeles Times. Bachmann dropped out on January 4, one day after her poor showing in the Iowa caucuses, in which she came in sixth place and received just 5 percent of the vote,Sarah Wheaton, "Bachmann Says She Will Not Continue in the Race" (January 4, 2012). New York Times. Perry dropped out on January 19 after finishing fifth in Iowa with just over 10 percent of the vote, finishing sixth in New Hampshire with less than 1 percent of the vote and with "lagging" poll numbers ahead of the South Carolina primary, and Santorum suspended his campaign on April 10. Newt Gingrich announced he would drop out of the race after a poor showing in the northeast on April 24.
Haley Barbour of Mississippi, Jeb Bush of Florida, Chris Christie of New Jersey, Jim DeMint of South Carolina, Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota, Paul Ryan of Wisconsin and John Thune of South Dakota all succeeded in leading polls in their home states at some point in 2011, although only Pawlenty actually launched a campaign. Pawlenty exited the race on August 14, one day after finishing third in Iowa's Ames Straw Poll, citing a lack of campaign funds.Kate O'Hare, "Tim Pawlenty quits after third-place straw-poll finish" (August 14, 2011). Los Angeles Times.Robert J. Vickers, "Pawlenty to headline state GOP meeting" (January 3, 2012). The Patriot-News.
Polling for completed primaries
Nevada (February 4)
Winner: Mitt Romney Caucus date: February 4, 2012 Delegates: 28
Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd OtherCaucus resultsCaucus results Turnout: 32,963Feb. 4, 2012 Mitt Romney50.1% Newt Gingrich21.1% Ron Paul18.8% Rick Santorum 10.0%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.2% Sample size: 937 LCV Feb. 1–2, 2012 Mitt Romney50% Newt Gingrich25% Ron Paul15% Rick Santorum 8%, Not sure/Someone else 1%Las Vegas Review-Journal/University of NevadaLas Vegas Review-Journal/University of Nevada Margin of error: ±4.75% Sample size: 426 LV Feb. 1, 2012 Mitt Romney45% Newt Gingrich25% Rick Santorum11% Ron Paul 9%, Undecided 9%2012NevadaCaucus.com2012NevadaCaucus.com Margin of error: ±5% Sample size: 300 Jan. 31-Feb. 1, 2012 Mitt Romney34% Ron Paul24% Newt Gingrich14% Rick Santorum 9%, Undecided 19%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.6% Sample size: 450 Oct. 20–23, 2011 Mitt Romney29% Herman Cain28% Newt Gingrich15% Ron Paul 7%, Rick Perry 6%, Michele Bachmann 3%, Jon Huntsman 2%, Rick Santorum 2%, Gary Johnson 0%, someone else/undecided 9% Mitt Romney65% Rick Perry20% – not sure 15% Mitt Romney48% Herman Cain40% – not sure 13% Herman Cain60% Rick Perry22% – not sure 17%Magellan StrategiesMagellan Strategies Margin of error: ±3.77% Sample size: 673 Oct. 19–20, 2011 Mitt Romney38% Herman Cain26% Newt Gingrich16% Ron Paul 7%, Rick Perry 5%, Michele Bachmann 2%, Jon Huntsman 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Other candidate 1%, Undecided 3%Project New WestProject New West Margin of error: ±7.1% Sample size: 190 Sep. 25–27, 2011 Mitt Romney31% Herman Cain26% Rick Perry12% Newt Gingrich 7%, Ron Paul 7%, Michele Bachmann 4%, Rick Santorum 2%, Jon Huntsman 1%, Other candidate 3%, Undecided 7%Magellan StrategiesMagellan Strategies Margin of error: ±3.9% Sample size: 631 Aug. 29, 31, 2011 Rick Perry29% Mitt Romney24% Herman Cain7% Michele Bachmann 6%, Ron Paul 6%, Newt Gingrich 5%, Jon Huntsman 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Other candidate 2%, Undecided 19%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling Margin of error: ±3.6% Sample size: 732 Jul. 28–31, 2011 Mitt Romney31% Rick Perry18% Michele Bachmann10% Sarah Palin 10%, Ron Paul 9%, Herman Cain 7%, Newt Gingrich 6%, Tim Pawlenty 1%, Jon Huntsman 1%, Someone else/undecided 6% Mitt Romney31% Rick Perry18% Michele Bachmann14% Ron Paul 11%, Herman Cain 8%, Newt Gingrich 8%, Jon Huntsman 2%, Tim Pawlenty 1%, Someone else/undecided 7%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling Margin of error: ±5.7% Sample size: 300 Apr. 21–24, 2011 Mitt Romney24% Donald Trump16% Newt Gingrich11% Mike Huckabee 10%, Sarah Palin 8%, Tim Pawlenty 8%, Michele Bachmann 7%, Ron Paul 5%, someone else/undecided 12% Mitt Romney29% Newt Gingrich17% Sarah Palin12% Michele Bachmann 9%, Mike Huckabee 9%, Ron Paul 7%, Tim Pawlenty 7%, someone else/undecided 9% Mitt Romney33% Newt Gingrich18% Sarah Palin14% Michele Bachmann 11%, Tim Pawlenty 9%, Ron Paul 6%, someone else/undecided 8% Mitt Romney31% Newt Gingrich16% Mike Huckabee15% Michele Bachmann 11%, Tim Pawlenty 10%, Ron Paul 8%, someone else/undecided 9% Mitt Romney38% Newt Gingrich21% Michele Bachmann14% Ron Paul 10%, Tim Pawlenty 8%, someone else/undecided 10%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.9% Sample size: 400 Jan. 3–5, 2011 Mitt Romney31% Sarah Palin19% Newt Gingrich18% Mike Huckabee 14%, Ron Paul 7%, Mitch Daniels 1%, Tim Pawlenty 1%, John Thune 1%, someone else/undecided 8%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling Margin of error: ±5.9% Sample size: 272 Oct. 30–31, 2010 Mitt Romney34% Newt Gingrich21% Sarah Palin16% Mike Huckabee 11%, Tim Pawlenty 2%, Mitch Daniels 1%, Mike Pence 1%, John Thune 0%, someone else/undecided 13%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling Margin of error: ±5.0% Sample size: 400 Jul. 16–18, 2010 Mitt Romney34% Newt Gingrich28% Sarah Palin16% Mike Huckabee 11%, Ron Paul 7%, undecided 5%
Colorado (February 7)
Winner: Rick Santorum Caucus date: February 7, 2012 Delegates: 36
Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd OtherCaucus resultsCaucus results Turnout: 66,091Feb. 7, 2012 Rick Santorum 40.3% Mitt Romney34.9% Newt Gingrich12.8% Ron Paul 11.8%, Rick Perry 0.1%, Jon Huntsman 0.1%, Michele Bachmann 0.0%, Others 0.1%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy PollingMargin of error: ±3.2%Sample size: 938 Feb. 4–6, 2012Mitt Romney37% Rick Santorum27% Newt Gingrich21% Ron Paul 13%, Someone else/Not sure 2%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy PollingMargin of error: ±4.3%Sample size: 527 Feb. 4, 2012Mitt Romney40% Rick Santorum26% Newt Gingrich18% Ron Paul 12%, Someone else/Not sure 3%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy PollingMargin of error: ±4.4%Sample size: 500 Dec. 1–4, 2011Newt Gingrich37% Mitt Romney18% Michele Bachmann9% Ron Paul 6%, Rick Perry 4%, Rick Santorum 4%, Jon Huntsman 3%, Gary Johnson 1%, Undecided 16%Project New West/Keating ResearchProject New West/Keating ResearchMargin of error: ±7.2%Sample size: – Sep. 19–22, 2011Mitt Romney24%Rick Perry20% Michele Bachmann7% Newt Gingrich 7%, Herman Cain 5%, undecided 19%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy PollingMargin of error: ±5.5%Sample size: 314 Aug. 4–7, 2011Rick Perry20%Mitt Romney20% Michele Bachmann12% Sarah Palin 11%, Ron Paul 8%, Herman Cain 7%, Newt Gingrich 6%, Tim Pawlenty 3%, Jon Huntsman 2%, someone else/undecided 11%Mitt Romney22%Rick Perry21% Michele Bachmann15% Newt Gingrich 9%, Ron Paul 7%, Tim Pawlenty 6%, Herman Cain 5%, Jon Huntsman 2%, someone else/undecided 13%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy PollingMargin of error: ±4.9%Sample size: 400 Feb. 4–6, 2011Mitt Romney19%Mike Huckabee16%Sarah Palin16% Newt Gingrich 12%, Ron Paul 9%, Tim Pawlenty 7%, John Thune 4%, Mitch Daniels 3%, someone else/undecided 16%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy PollingMargin of error: ±5.3%Sample size: 341 Oct. 30–31, 2010Mitt Romney22%Newt Gingrich17%Sarah Palin17% Mike Huckabee 14%, Tim Pawlenty 6%, Mike Pence 3%, John Thune 2%, Mitch Daniels 1%, someone else/undecided 18%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy PollingMargin of error: ±4.6%Sample size: 448 May 14–16, 2010Sarah Palin29%Mitt Romney25% Mike Huckabee18% Newt Gingrich 16%, Ron Paul 9%, undecided 3%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy PollingMargin of error: ±4.4%Sample size: 497 Mar. 5–8, 2010Mitt Romney44% Sarah Palin25% Mike Huckabee17% Undecided 14%
Minnesota (February 7)
Winner: Rick Santorum Caucus date: February 7, 2012 Delegates: 40
Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd OtherCaucus resultsCaucus results Turnout: 48,795Feb. 7, 2012 Rick Santorum 44.9% Ron Paul27.1% Mitt Romney16.9% Newt Gingrich10.8%, Write in 0.3%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy PollingMargin of error: ±3.3%Sample size: 864 Feb. 6, 2012Rick Santorum33% Mitt Romney24% Newt Gingrich22% Ron Paul 20%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy PollingMargin of error: ±4.8%Sample size: 410 Feb. 4, 2012Rick Santorum29%Mitt Romney27% Newt Gingrich22% Ron Paul 19%, Someone else/Not sure 3%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling Margin of error: ±5.6% Sample size: 303 Jan. 21–22, 2012 Newt Gingrich36% Mitt Romney18% Rick Santorum17% Ron Paul 13%, Someone else/Not sure 15% Newt Gingrich50% Mitt Romney29% Not sure 21% Mitt Romney51% Ron Paul29% Not sure 20% Rick Santorum46% Mitt Romney34% Not sure 20%SurveyUSA/KSTP-TV Margin of error: ±4.2% Sample size: 558 Jun. 15–17, 2011 Mitt Romney29% Tim Pawlenty23% Michele Bachmann13% Ron Paul 13%, Herman Cain 4%, Newt Gingrich 3%, Rick Perry 2%, Jon Huntsman 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Not sure 11%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling Margin of error: ±5.1% Sample size: 371 May 27–30, 2011 Tim Pawlenty33% Michele Bachmann14% Sarah Palin11% Mitt Romney 11%, Herman Cain 10%, Ron Paul 9%, Newt Gingrich 4%, Jon Huntsman 2%, Someone else/Not Sure 6% Tim Pawlenty38% Michele Bachmann19% Mitt Romney11% Herman Cain 10%, Ron Paul 9%, Newt Gingrich 5%, Jon Huntsman 1%, Someone else/Not Sure 7%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling Margin of error: ±5.0% Sample size: 387 Dec. 4–5, 2010 Tim Pawlenty24% Sarah Palin17% Mike Huckabee15% Mitt Romney 13%, Newt Gingrich 11%, Ron Paul 9%, John Thune 3%, Mitch Daniels 2%, someone else/undecided 6%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.4% Sample size: 499 Oct. 27–29, 2010 Tim Pawlenty19% Sarah Palin18% Mike Huckabee14% Newt Gingrich 11%, Mitt Romney 11%, Mitch Daniels 3%, Mike Pence 3%, John Thune 2%, someone else/undecided 18%MPR News-Humphrey Institute PollMPR News-Humphrey Institute Poll Margin of error: ±5.3% Sample size: 750 Aug. 25–29, 2010 Mitt Romney45% Tim Pawlenty32% – Tim Pawlenty59% Sarah Palin24% –
Maine (February 4–11)
Caucus date: February 4–11, 2012 Delegates: 24 Note The Maine Republican Party released updated results on February 17th. Maine Senate President Kevin Raye stated that the final tally would be updated to include the results from the Washington County caucus held on February 18, but that the State Committee would vote on March 10 to determine if the other towns who voluntarily held their caucuses after the February 11 deadline would be included.
Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd OtherCaucus resultsCaucus results* Turnout: 5,585Feb. 4–11, 2012 Mitt Romney 39.0% Ron Paul34.9% Rick Santorum18.1% Newt Gingrich 6.7%, Others 1.2%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling Margin of error: ±6.2% Sample size: 250 Oct. 28–31, 2011 Herman Cain29% Mitt Romney24% Newt Gingrich18% Michele Bachmann 5%, Ron Paul 5%, Rick Perry 4%, Rick Santorum 2%, Jon Huntsman 1%, Gary Johnson 1%, someone else/not sure 11%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.7% Sample size: 434 Mar. 3–6, 2011 Newt Gingrich19% Mike Huckabee19% Sarah Palin17% Mitt Romney 15%, Ron Paul 8%, Mitch Daniels 4%, Tim Pawlenty 3%, Haley Barbour 2%, someone else/undecided 13%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling Margin of error: ±4.0%