Climate change in Nepal

Globally, Nepal is ranked fourth in terms of vulnerability to climate change. Floods spread across the foothills of the Himalayas and bring landslides, leaving tens of thousands of houses and vast areas of farmland and roads destroyed. In the 2020 edition of Germanwatch's Climate Risk Index, it was judged to be the ninth hardest-hit nation by climate calamities during the period 1999 to 2018. Nepal is a least developed country, with 28.6 percent of the population living in multidimensional poverty. Analysis of trends from 1971 to 2014 by the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) shows that the average annual maximum temperature has been increasing by 0.056°C per year. Precipitation extremes are found to be increasing. A national-level survey on the perception-based survey on climate change reported that locals accurately perceived the shifts in temperature but their perceptions of precipitation change did not converge with the instrumental records. Data reveals that more than 80 percent of property loss due to disasters is attributable to climate hazards, particularly water-related events such as floods, landslides and Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs).

The floods of 2018 spread across the foothills of the Himalayas and brought landslides. They have left tens of thousands of houses and vast areas of farmland and roads destroyed. Nepal experienced flash floods and landslides in August, 2018 across the southern border, amounting to US$600 million in damages. There are reports of land which was once used for growing vegetables, and has become barren. Yak herders struggle to find grazing patches for their animals. Scientists have found that rising temperatures could spread malaria and dengue to new areas of the Himalayas, where mosquitoes have started to appear in the highlands.

Impacts on the natural environment

Temperature and weather changes A climate trend analysis of Nepal (1971-2014) shows that the annual maximum temperature trend is significantly positive (0.056oC/yr). All Nepal annual minimum temperature trend is also positive (0.002oC/yr) but it is insignificant.

The effects of greenhouse gases (GHGs) on both drought and flooding events have been found, including severe winter droughtWang et al. 2014 http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00800.1 and excessive monsoon flooding. Climate change has been alarming in the context of global warming. In Nepal, 95% of greenhouse gas emissions are from agriculture and forestry sectors; of this, 77% was from the forestry sector only.MoST 2004 Initial National Communication Report on Climate Change: Ministry of Science and Technology, Government of Nepal, submitted to UNFCCC. The consequences of global warming have had the most impact in developing and mountainous countries like Nepal, which has high intensity rainfall during rainy season. It has resulted in heavy floods, landslides and soil erosion. It is also common to find drought in many parts of Nepal that comes from the impacts of climate change and it impacts sectors like forest, water resources, agriculture, human health and biodiversity.Hibiba, Gitay, et al. 2002 Climate Change and Biodiversity. IPCC Technical Paper IV. ICIMOD

Dengue fever expansion Historically confined to the lowland Terai region and urban transit hubs, dengue fever has expanded rapidly across Nepal due to shifting climate patterns. Since the first documented case in 2004 and initial outbreaks in 2006, national surveillance has tracked a steep rise in case numbers, geographic spread, and elevation boundaries. A massive epidemic during 2022–2023 reached all 77 districts of the country, recording a peak of 54,784 cases and 88 deaths in 2022 alone, with the geographic burden shifting from Kathmandu in 2022 eastward to Koshi Province in 2023.

Rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns have created widening thermal suitability and longer seasonal transmission windows in the mid-hills, including around major population and tourist centers like Kathmandu and Pokhara. The primary mosquito vectors, Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus, have been detected at altitudes up to 2,100 meters in central Nepal. While definitive laboratory confirmation of active local viral transmission in the high Himalayas remains limited, clinical cases and active vectors are increasingly reported beyond the monsoon season in high-altitude districts such as Humla and Solukhumbu, signaling that altitude is becoming a less reliable proxy for arboviral safety in the region.

Impacts on people

Economic impacts

Agriculture Altogether 14 glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs)Mool, PK; Bajracharya, SR; Joshi, SP (2001) Inventory of Glaciers, glacial lakes, glacial lake and outburst floods monitoring and early warning system in the Hindu-Kush Himalayan region, Nepal. Kathmandu, Nepal:ICIMOD occurred between 1935 and 1991. In total, 21 GLOFsMool, PK; Bajracharya, SR; Joshi, SP (2001)Inventory of Glaciers, glacial lakes, glacial lake outburst floods monitoring and early warning system in the Hindu-Kush Himalayan region, Nepal. Kathmandu, Nepal:ICIMOD have been identified as being potentially dangerous at present. In this way, CC and livelihoods integral part and have vice versa relationship. The low income and subsistence users are about 38% of total population. It is a great challenge to cope with climate change induced hazards and extreme events. The livelihoods of more than 80% of the local people of hilly region are heavily dependent on climate sensitive areas such as agriculture, forest and livestock and on other natural resources such as water and irrigation.

Adaptation Nepal's National Adaptation Plan process

In 2010, the Government of Nepal approved the National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA). NAPA was developed as a requirement under the UNFCCC to access funding for the most urgent and immediate adaptation needs from the Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF).

In Nepal, NAPA was developed with three components: preparation and dissemination of NAPA documents, development and maintenance of the Nepal Climate Change Knowledge Management Centre (NCCKMC), and development of the Multi-Stakeholder Climate Change Initiative Coordination Committee (MCCICC).

In NAPA, nine integrated projects have been identified as the urgent and immediate national adaptation priority. They are:

Promoting community-based adaptation through integrated management of agriculture, water, forest and biodiversity sector Building and enhancing adaptive capacity of vulnerable communities through improved system and access to services related to agriculture development Community-based disaster management for facilitating climate adaptation GLOF monitoring and disaster risk reduction, and forest and ecosystem management for supporting climate-led adaptation innovations Adapting to climate challenges in public health and ecosystem management for climate adaptation Empowering vulnerable communities through sustainable management of water resource and clean energy support, and promoting climate smart urban settlement

NAPA's implementation framework envisages that the operating costs will be kept to a minimum and at least 80% of the available financial resources will reach the local level to fund activities on the ground. Stakeholders in Nepal has also started discussing National Adaptation Plans(NAPs), which are medium and long term adaptation plans for the country as decided by UNFCCC.Clean Energy Nepal from http://www.cen.org.np/index.php?page=news_detail&nid=283#.USe4wR2LDgs

Nepal's NAP process builds on past experience with adaptation planning, including through the National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA), developed in 2010, and the Framework on Local Adaptation Plans for Action (LAPA), developed in 2011, which has facilitated development of adaptation plans by Village Development Committees across the country. Nepal launched its National Adaptation Plan (NAP) process in September 2015. The two main objectives of the NAP are (i) to reduce vulnerability to climate change impacts by improving resilience and adaptive capacity, and (ii) to integrate climate change adaptation into new and current policies, programs, activities, and development strategies across all sectors and levels of government.

At present, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) is executing the NAP process through the project, "Building Capacity to Advance National Adaptation Plan Process in Nepal," with financial support from the Green Climate Fund (GCF). Building on the NAPA formulation and implementation experiences, this project supports the Climate Change Management Division (CCMD) of the Ministry of Forests and Environment, in the NAP formulation process, through a participatory, country-driven, gender-sensitive and multi-sectoral working group approach, emphasizing "leave no one behind" as the guiding principle. To mainstream the interlinked climate change issues into the overall development process, the National Climate Change Policy that came into effect in 2019 identified eight thematic and four cross-cutting areas. Based on that, the NAP formulation process engages eight thematic working groups (TWGs) and four cross-cutting working groups (CWGs) to cover the climate-sensitive approach. In line with the National Climate Change Policy 2019, the project works through the seven Provincial Climate Change Coordination Committees (PC4), one in each province. The PC4 is a medium between the federal and provincial governments concerning climate change.

Potentiality of climate change adaptation Response to climate change in Nepal has been growing in recent years with an effort to cope with the changing situation and build resilience capacity into adaptation to climate change. In climate induced vulnerability context, Nepal has developed policy level provision such as the National Adaptation Programme of Action to climate change (NAPA).NAPA 2010 National Adaptation Programmes of Actions: Ministry of Environment/GoN, http://www.moste.gov.np/elibrary?page=3#.USZNYR3Is1I The NAPA document opened the door to act adaptation activities into country. Under the provision of national level policy, the Local Adaptation Plan of Action (LAPA) national frameworkLAPA Nov 2011 Local Adaptation Plan of Action National Framework: Ministry of Science, Technology & Environment, Government of Nepal http://www.moste.gov.np/elibrary?page=3#.USZNYR3Is1I was devised out by government. It only mentioned the provision of the implementation mechanism at district or village development committee level to act on climate change adaptation. However, this document is still silent on provision of implementation mechanism at community level. Although the framework does not mention adaptation implementation mechanisms at community level, some community level adaptive strategies are being implemented. These strategies are community based adaptation plans for poor and vulnerable communities with less capacity to cope with disasters and are more dependent on natural resources for their livelihoods.

Adaptation in the agricultural sector

Adaptation to climate change in the agricultural sector and allied sectors is a major current and future challenge for Nepal. The majority of the population is still dependent on highly climate-sensitive sector like agriculture. In recent years, long drought spells during the monsoon season and increased temperatures and unseasonal heavy rains during winter have caused serious distress to agriculture-dependent communities in many locations. If the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of ending poverty, achieving food security and promoting sustainable agriculture are to be realized, climate change adaptation interventions need to be implemented in earnest.Climate-smart agriculture in Nepal , Climate & Development Knowledge Network, 31 July 2017

Goods and services from community forest