The 2014 Minnesota gubernatorial election took place on November 4, 2014, to elect the governor of Minnesota. It was held concurrently with the election to Minnesota's Class II U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.
Incumbent Democratic–Farmer–Labor governor Mark Dayton ran for re-election to a second term in office. Incumbent Democratic lieutenant governor Yvonne Prettner Solon retired, and Tina Smith was selected as his new running mate.
Primary elections were held on August 12, 2014. Dayton and Smith won the Democratic primary and the Republicans nominated Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson and his running mate former state representative Bill Kuisle. In the general election, Dayton and Smith defeated them and several other minor party candidates with just over 50% of the vote. Dayton's victory broke his own record, set in 2010, as the oldest Minnesota gubernatorial candidate to win an election; he was 67. It was also the first gubernatorial race since 1994 in which the winner received a majority of the votes cast.
The election was the first time since 1994 that a third party did not gain more than 6% of the total vote.
Background Incumbent Republican governor Tim Pawlenty declined to run for a third term in 2010, instead running for the Republican presidential nomination in the 2012 election. State Representative Tom Emmer easily won the Republican nomination, and former U.S. senator Mark Dayton won the DFL nomination with a plurality over State House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher. After a very close race, Dayton defeated Emmer by just 8,770 votes, 0.42% of all votes cast.
Dayton's victory was one of just four that Minnesota Democrats have achieved out of 28 gubernatorial elections during a Democratic presidency. Despite this, and despite his narrow margin of victory in 2010, Dayton was not seen as a top Republican target. The Cook Political Report and The Rothenberg Political Report both rated the race as "safe Democratic", and Daily Kos Elections, Governing and Sabato's Crystal Ball all rated the race as "likely Democratic".
Democratic–Farmer–Labor primary
Candidates
Declared Bill Dahn Running mate: James Vigliotti Leslie Davis, activist Running mate: Gregor Soderberg Mark Dayton, incumbent governor Running mate: Tina Smith, Dayton's former chief of staff
Results
Republican primary Until 2014, Minnesota Republicans had not had a competitive gubernatorial primary since 1924, when Theodore Christianson beat Ole Jacobson by 2.8%, taking 22.8% of the vote in a six-candidate race that saw five candidates finish in double digits. In every election since then, the nominee had won the primary by at least 17.8% and on average by 62.2%.
At the Republican State Convention on May 30–31, 2014, Jeff Johnson received the party's endorsement. Dave A. Thompson withdrew from the race and endorsed Johnson. Scott Honour, Marty Seifert and Kurt Zellers all ran in the August primary, but Johnson prevailed with 30% of the vote.
Candidates
Declared Merrill Anderson, former director of Reachout Today Inc and candidate for mayor of Minneapolis in 2013 Running mate: Mark D. Anderson, former realtor and housing counselor Scott Honour, investment banker Running mate: Karin Housley, state senator Jeff Johnson, Hennepin County commissioner and former state representative Running mate: Bill Kuisle, former state representative and farmer Marty Seifert, former minority leader of the Minnesota House of Representatives and candidate for governor in 2010 Running mate: Pam Myhra, state representative Kurt Zellers, state representative and former speaker of the Minnesota House of Representatives Running mate: Dean Simpson, former state representative
Withdrawn Rob Farnsworth, teacher and candidate for Minnesota's 8th congressional district in 2010 Ole Savior, perennial candidate (ran for the U.S. Senate) Dave A. Thompson, state senator and former radio host Running mate: Michelle Benson, state senator
Declined Kurt Bills, former state representative and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2012 Norm Coleman, former U.S. senator and nominee for governor in 1998 Matt Dean, state representative and former majority leader of the Minnesota House of Representatives Keith Downey, chairman of the Republican Party of Minnesota and former state representative Tom Emmer, former state representative and nominee for governor in 2010 (running for Congress) Bill Guidera, finance chair of the Republican Party of Minnesota David Hann, minority leader of the Minnesota Senate and candidate for governor in 2010 Karin Housley, state senator (running for lieutenant governor on Scott Honour's ticket) Bill Ingebrigtsen, state senator John Kline, U.S. representative John Kriesel, former state representative Susan Marvin, businesswoman Erik Paulsen, U.S. representative Tim Pawlenty, former governor Julie Rosen, state senator Ron Schutz, attorney Rich Stanek, Hennepin County sheriff
Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror RobFarnsworth ScottHonour JeffJohnson JulieRosen OleSavior MartySeifert Dave A.Thompson KurtZellers Other/UndecidedSurveyUSASurveyUSA June 5–9, 2014 404 ± 5% — 9% 23% — — 14% — 23% 33%SuffolkSuffolk April 24–28, 2014 73 ± ? 1% 2% 7% — 1% 10% 5% 8% 68%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling October 27–29, 2013 305 ± 5.7% — 6% 8% 10% — 9% 11% 12% 44%
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror NormColeman KeithDowney DavidHann JeffJohnson JulieRosen MartySeifert KurtZellers Other/UndecidedPublic Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling January 18–20, 2013 275 ± 5.9% 57% 4% 4% 4% 5% 4% 5% 17%
Debate + 2014 Minnesota gubernatorial election Republican primary debate Date Host Moderator Link Republican Republican Republican Republican RepublicanKey: Participant Absent Not invited Invited Withdrawn Merrill Anderson Scott Honour Jeff Johnson Marty Seifert Kurt Zellers1 Jul. 30, 2014 Minnesota Public Radio Mike Mulcahy YouTube
Results
Independence primary
The Independence Party of Minnesota state convention was held on May 17, 2014, at Minnesota State University, Mankato.
Candidates
Nominee Hannah Nicollet, software developer Running mate: Tim Gieseke, businessman and candidate for the state house in 2013
Declined Tom Horner, public affairs consultant and nominee for governor in 2010 (endorsed Jeff Johnson)http://kstp.com/article/stories/s3556490.shtml Tom Horner Endorses Jeff Johnson For Governor
Results
Libertarian Party The Libertarian Party of Minnesota state convention was held on April 26, 2014, in Maple Grove.
Candidates
Nominee Chris Holbrook Running mate: Chris Dock
Grassroots–Legalize Cannabis Party
Candidates
Declared Chris Wright, computer repair shop owner and nominee for governor in 1998 and 2010 Running mate: David Daniels, playwright and performance artist
General election
Debates Complete video of debate, October 1, 2014 - C-SPAN Complete video of debate, October 8, 2014 - YouTube Complete video of debate, October 9, 2014 - YouTube Complete video of debate, October 14, 2014 - YouTube Complete video of debate, October 19, 2014 - YouTube
Predictions Source Ranking As of The Cook Political Report November 3, 2014 Sabato's Crystal Ball November 3, 2014 Rothenberg Political Report November 3, 2014 Real Clear Politics November 3, 2014
Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror MarkDayton (DFL) JeffJohnson (R) HannahNicollet (IP) Other UndecidedSurveyUSA/KSTP-TVSurveyUSA/KSTP-TV October 27–30, 2014 596 ± 4.1% 47% 42% 2% 4% 4%CBS News/NYT/YouGovCBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 2014 2,430 ± 3% 50% 41% — 1% 9%Mason-Dixon/Star TribuneMason-Dixon/Star Tribune October 20–22, 2014 800 ± 3.5% 45% 38% 5% 2% 10%SurveyUSA/KSTP-TVSurveyUSA/KSTP-TV October 14–16, 2014 597 ± 4.1% 50% 40% 3% 3% 4%SurveyUSA/KSTP-TVSurveyUSA/KSTP-TV 577 ± 4.2% 51% 39% 4% 2% 4%CBS News/NYT/YouGovCBS News/NYT/YouGov 2,562 ± 2% 49% 42% 0% 1% 8%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports September 29–30, 2014 750 ± 4% 50% 40% — — 10%Mason-Dixon/Star TribuneMason-Dixon/Star Tribune September 8–10, 2014 800 ± 3.5% 45% 33% 1% 1% 20%CBS News/NYT/YouGovCBS News/NYT/YouGov 3,607 ± 2% 48% 41% — 2% 10%SurveyUSA/KSTP-TVSurveyUSA/KSTP-TV August 19–21, 2014 600 ± 4.1% 49% 40% 3% 3% 5%Rasmussen Reports August 13–14, 2014 750 ± 4% 49% 41% — — 10%Gravis MarketingGravis Marketing July 2–3, 2014 879 ± 3% 52% 37% 11% — —Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling June 12–15, 2014 633 ± 3.9% 47% 36% — — 16%SurveyUSA/KSTP-TVSurveyUSA/KSTP-TV June 5–9, 2014 1,017 ± 3.1% 46% 40% 5% 2% 6%Suffolk UniversitySuffolk University April 24–28, 2014 800 ± ? 44% 30% — — 26%SurveyUSA/KSTP-TVSurveyUSA/KSTP-TV February 25–27, 2014 545 ± 4.3% 52% 34% — — 14%Public Policy Polling October 27–29, 2013 895 ± 3.3% 48% 37% — — 15%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling May 17–19, 2013 712 ± 3.7% 52% 34% — — 14%Public Policy Polling January 18–20, 2013 1,065 ± 3% 53% 29% — — 18%
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror MarkDayton (DFL) MerrillAnderson (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling June 12–15, 2014 633 ± 3.9% 47% 35% — 18%
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror MarkDayton (DFL) NormColeman (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling January 18–20, 2013 1,065 ± 3% 52% 39% — 9%
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror MarkDayton (DFL) KurtDaudt (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling May 17–19, 2013 712 ± 3.7% 51% 39% — 10%
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror MarkDayton (DFL) KeithDowney (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling January 18–20, 2013 1,065 ± 3% 53% 30% — 18%
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror MarkDayton (DFL) TomEmmer (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling May 17–19, 2013 712 ± 3.7% 52% 39% — 9%
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror MarkDayton (DFL) RobFarnsworth (R) Other UndecidedSuffolk April 24–28, 2014 800 ± ? 45% 28% — 27%SurveyUSASurveyUSA February 25–27, 2014 545 ± 4.3% 52% 31% — 17%
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror MarkDayton (DFL) DavidHann (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling May 17–19, 2013 712 ± 3.7% 51% 36% — 13%
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror MarkDayton (DFL) ScottHonour (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling June 12–15, 2014 633 ± 3.9% 47% 35% — 19%SurveyUSA June 5–9, 2014 1,017 ± 3.1% 47% 37% 10% 6%Suffolk April 24–28, 2014 800 ± ? 45% 28% — 27%SurveyUSA February 25–27, 2014 545 ± 4.3% 53% 33% — 14%Public Policy Polling October 27–29, 2013 895 ± 3.3% 48% 38% — 15%Public Policy Polling May 17–19, 2013 712 ± 3.7% 52% 34% — 15%
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror MarkDayton (DFL) TimPawlenty (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling January 18–20, 2013 1,065 ± 3% 50% 42% — 7%
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror MarkDayton (DFL) JulieRosen (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling October 27–29, 2013 895 ± 3.3% 48% 36% — 16%Public Policy Polling May 17–19, 2013 712 ± 3.7% 51% 34% — 15%Public Policy Polling January 18–20, 2013 1,065 ± 3% 52% 27% — 21%
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror MarkDayton (DFL) MartySeifert (R) Other UndecidedCBS News/NYT/YouGovCBS News/NYT/YouGov July 5–24, 2014 3,170 ± 2% 53% 37% 6% 4%Public Policy Polling June 12–15, 2014 633 ± 3.9% 47% 36% — 17%SurveyUSA June 5–9, 2014 1,017 ± 3.1% 46% 38% 10% 6%Suffolk April 24–28, 2014 800 ± ? 43% 32% — 25%SurveyUSA February 25–27, 2014 545 ± 4.3% 51% 34% — 15%Public Policy Polling October 27–29, 2013 895 ± 3.3% 48% 37% — 16%