The 2014 Rhode Island gubernatorial election took place on November 4, 2014, to elect the governor of Rhode Island, concurrently with the election of Rhode Island's Class II U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
Incumbent Democratic governor Lincoln Chafee was eligible to run for re-election to a second term but decided to retire. He had been elected as an independent candidate and became a Democrat in 2013. In primary elections held on September 9, 2014, the Democrats nominated Rhode Island Treasurer Gina Raimondo and the Republicans nominated Cranston Mayor Allan Fung. Also on the ballot were Robert J. Healey of the Moderate Party and two Independent candidates.
Raimondo won the election, becoming the first Democrat to be elected governor since Bruce Sundlun in 1992, as Chafee had been elected as an independent in 2010. Raimondo became the first female governor in Rhode Island history. Democrats won Newport County for the first time in a gubernatorial election since 1998, and Bristol and Washington counties since 1992.
Background In the 2010 gubernatorial election, Republican incumbent Donald Carcieri was term-limited and unable to seek a third term in office. The Republicans nominated businessman John Robitaille and the Democrats nominated State Treasurer Frank T. Caprio. Also contesting the election were Moderate Party nominee Ken Block and Lincoln Chafee, who served as a Republican U.S. senator from 1999 to 2007. After losing a bid for re-election in 2006, Chafee left the Republican Party and became an Independent, running for governor as such. After a close three-way race between Chafee, Robitaille and Caprio, Chafee won the election with a plurality, taking 36% to Robitaille's 34%, Caprio's 23% and Block's 6%.
After constant speculation during his term, Chafee officially joined the Democratic Party on May 30, 2013. He had previously indicated that he might run for re-election as an Independent or a Democrat. In the face of low approval ratings, polling showing him trailing in both the Democratic primary and the general election, and with weak fundraising, Chafee announced on September 4, 2013, that he would not run for re-election. Chafee thus became just the fourth governor in the history of Rhode Island to decline to seek a second term, after Byron Diman in 1847, Royal C. Taft in 1889 and William S. Flynn in 1924.
Democratic primary Gina Raimondo, Treasurer of Rhode Island, and Angel Taveras, mayor of Providence, announced their campaigns in late 2013 and the race initially seemed to be between the more fiscally moderate Raimondo and the more progressive Taveras. However, the entry of Clay Pell, an Obama administration official and grandson of Claiborne Pell, into the race complicated things. Unions who had criticized Raimondo for cutting pension benefits and investing in hedge funds during her tenure as Treasurer and for fundraising from Wall Street and national lobbyists were split on whether to back Taveras or Pell. A coalition of unions including firefighters, police, supermarket clerks, and city employees backed Taveras, whereas the powerful teachers' unions backed Pell, unimpressed with Taveras' support for charter schools. Raimondo drew support from non-union and private sector workers and some private sector unions including iron workers. Pell spent over $3.4 million of his own money and ran a positive campaign, but he was much criticized for his inexperience and lack of ties to Rhode Island. Taveras emphasised his background as the son of poor Dominican immigrants to appeal to Latino and working-class voters. All three candidates agreed not to seek the endorsement of the state Democratic Party. Ultimately, Taveras and Pell took an almost equal share of the vote as progressive Democrats split their vote between the two, allowing Raimondo to win with a plurality. Raimondo won 36 of the state's 39 municipalities. Taveras won Central Falls and Pell won Burrillville and Foster.
Candidates Declared Todd Giroux, contractor and independent candidate for governor in 2010 Clay Pell, former Deputy Assistant Secretary for International and Foreign Language Education in the United States Department of Education and grandson of Rhode Island's longest serving senator Claiborne Pell Gina Raimondo, Treasurer of Rhode Island Angel Taveras, Mayor of Providence
Withdrew Ernie Almonte, former auditor general of Rhode Island (running for Treasurer of Rhode Island) Lincoln Chafee, incumbent governor
Declined Patrick C. Lynch, former attorney general of Rhode Island Elizabeth H. Roberts, Lieutenant Governor of Rhode IslandLt. Gov. Roberts won't challenge Chafee Robert Weygand, former U.S. representative
Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror ToddGiroux ClayPell GinaRaimondo AngelTaveras Other/UndecidedFleming & Associates August 11–14, 2014 503 ± 4.38% 1.4% 25.6% 32.2% 26.8% 12.9%Fleming & AssociatesFleming & Associates May 27–30, 2014 506 ± 4.38% 1.6% 11.5% 29.2% 33.4% 24.3%Brown UniversityBrown University April 3–5, 2014 395 ± 4.9% — 9.6% 29.4% 25.8% 35.2%Fleming & AssociatesFleming & Associates February 3–6, 2014 503 ± 4.38% 1.2% 14.7% 27% 31.2% 25.9%Brown UniversityBrown University October 2–5, 2013 433 ± 4.5% — — 42% 33.6% 24.4%Garin-Hart-Yang^ September 10–12, 2013 400 ± 5% — — 30% 49% 21% ^ Internal poll for the Angel Taveras Campaign
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror LincolnChafee ErnieAlmonte GinaRaimondo AngelTaveras Other/UndecidedPublic Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling January 28–30, 2013 320 ± 5.5% 22% 11% 35% 19% 12% — 9% 44% 35% 13%
Results
Republican primary Candidates Declared Ken Block, Moderate Party nominee for governor in 2010 Allan Fung, Mayor of Cranston
Declined Scott Avedisian, Mayor of Warwick Brendan Doherty, former Superintendent of the Rhode Island State Police and nominee for Rhode Island's 1st congressional district in 2012 Barry Hinckley, businessman and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2012 John Robitaille, former aide to Governor Donald Carcieri and nominee for governor in 2010
Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror KenBlock AllanFung Other/UndecidedFabrizio, Lee & Ass.*Fabrizio, Lee & Ass. * April 2014 300 ± ? 46% 37% 17%Brown University April 3–5, 2014 86 ± 10.6% 36% 31.4% 38.5%Fabrizio, Lee & Ass.* October 2013 ? ± ? 25% 53% 22% * Internal poll for the Ken Block campaign
Results
Other parties Candidates Declared Robert J. Healey (Moderate), perennial candidate Kate Fletcher (Independent) Leon Kayarian (Independent)
Withdrew Ken Block (Moderate), nominee for governor in 2010 (switched to Republican primary) James Spooner (Moderate)
Removed from ballot Thomas Davis (Independent) Christopher Reynolds (Independent) Anna Winograd Vrankar (Compassion)
Declined Gina Raimondo (Independent), Democratic Treasurer of Rhode Island (won the Democratic primary)
General election Campaign Union voter dissatisfaction with Raimondo carried over into the general election, with one poll finding they backed Republican Allan Fung over her, 42% to 30%. Moderate Party nominee Robert J. Healey won 22% of the vote, having spent $35.31 to receive 67,707 votes, or $0.0005 (five ten-thousandths of a dollar) for each vote he received. He later joked, "It's amazing what $35 can do. As I've been saying, if we only spent $75, $80, we might've won the race."
Debate + 2014 Rhode Island gubernatorial election debate Date Host Moderator Link Democratic Republican ModerateKey: Participant Absent Not invited Invited Withdrawn Gina Raimondo Allan Fung Robert Healey1 Oct. 21, 2014 The Providence JournalWPRI-TV Tim White C-SPAN
Predictions Source Ranking As of The Cook Political Report November 3, 2014 Sabato's Crystal Ball November 3, 2014 Rothenberg Political Report November 3, 2014 Real Clear Politics November 3, 2014
Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror GinaRaimondo (D) AllanFung (R) Robert J.Healey (M) Other UndecidedBrown UniversityBrown University October 25–26, 2014 500 ± 4.4% 40% 39% 13% 1%Kate Fletcher (I) 1%, Leon Kayarian (I) 0% 11%CBS News/NYT/YouGovCBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 2014 866 ± 6% 40% 35% — 4% 21%Brown UniversityBrown University October 14–17, 2014 1,129 ± 2.9% 42% 31% 9% 1%Kate Fletcher (I) 0%, Leon Kayarian (I) 1% 18%Fleming & AssociatesFleming & Associates October 6–9, 2014 505 ± 4% 42% 36% 8% 1%Kate Fletcher (I) 0%, Leon Kayarian (I) 0% 14%CBS News/NYT/YouGovCBS News/NYT/YouGov September 20–October 1, 2014 724 ± 4% 41% 38% — 2% 19%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports September 23–25, 2014 750 ± 4% 42% 37% — 11% 11%Public Opinion Strategies* September 10–11, 2014 500 ± 4.38% 42% 42% — — 16%Brown University October 2–5, 2013 638 ± 3.9% 38% 36% — — 27%Public Policy Polling January 28–30, 2013 614 ± 4% 46% 27% — 12%Ken Block (I) 14% * Internal poll for the Allan Fung campaign
With Raimondo Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror GinaRaimondo (D) BrendanDoherty (R) KenBlock (I) UndecidedPublic Policy Polling January 28–30, 2013 614 ± 4% 44% 32% 10% 14%
With Taveras Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror AngelTaveras (D) KenBlock (R) Other UndecidedCBS News/NYT/YouGovCBS News/NYT/YouGov July 5–24, 2014 919 ± 3.4% 49% 24% 15% 13%
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror AngelTaveras (D) BrendanDoherty (R) KenBlock (I) UndecidedPublic Policy Polling January 28–30, 2013 614 ± 4% 39% 35% 13% 13%
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror AngelTaveras (D) AllanFung (R) KenBlock (I) Other UndecidedCBS News/NYT/YouGovCBS News/NYT/YouGov August 18–September 2, 2014 764 ± 4% 33% 33% — 20% 14%Brown University October 2–5, 2013 638 ± 3.9% 42% 33% — — 26%Public Policy Polling January 28–30, 2013 614 ± 4% 37% 31% 15% — 17%
With Chafee Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror LincolnChafee (D) BrendanDoherty (R) KenBlock (I) UndecidedPublic Policy Polling January 28–30, 2013 614 ± 4% 35% 39% 13% 9%
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror LincolnChafee (D) AllanFung (R) KenBlock (I) UndecidedPublic Policy Polling January 28–30, 2013 614 ± 4% 32% 36% 16% 15%
Four-way race Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror LincolnChafee (I) GinaRaimondo (D) BrendanDoherty (R) KenBlock (I) UndecidedPublic Policy Polling January 28–30, 2013 614 ± 4% 22% 32% 28% 8% 9%
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror LincolnChafee (I) GinaRaimondo (D) AllanFung (R) KenBlock (I) UndecidedPublic Policy Polling January 28–30, 2013 614 ± 4% 21% 35% 23% 10% 12%
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror LincolnChafee (I) AngelTaveras (D) BrendanDoherty (R) KenBlock (I) UndecidedPublic Policy Polling January 28–30, 2013 614 ± 4% 23% 26% 31% 10% 10%
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror LincolnChafee (I) AngelTaveras (D) AllanFung (R) KenBlock (I) UndecidedPublic Policy Polling January 28–30, 2013 614 ± 4% 20% 26% 26% 13% 14%
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror GinaRaimondo (D) AngelTaveras (D) AllanFung (R) KenBlock (I) UndecidedBrown University October 2–5, 2013 638 ± 4.5% 27% 21% 19% 9% 24%
Results
By county Gina RaimondoDemocratic Allan FungRepublican Robert J. HealeyModerate Others Total County Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Bristol7,31239.88%4,80626.21%6,06033.05%1580.86%18,336 Kent20,17634.19%23,00938.99%14,93725.31%8931.51%59,015 Newport12,88843.74%10,12234.35%5,89820.01%5601.90%29,468 Providence73,26243.16%61,51936.24%32,08618.90%2,8831.70%169,750 Washington18,26138.46%17,97237.85%10,29721.68%9562.01%47,486
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic Newport (largest municipality: Newport)
Counties that flipped from Independent to Democratic