Watch Tower Bible and Tract Society publications have made various predictions about Christ's Second Coming and the advent of God's kingdom that have gone unfulfilled. Predictions about specific years up until 1925 were later reinterpreted as confirmation of the eschatological framework of the Bible Student movement and Jehovah's Witnesses, with many of the predicted events reinterpreted as having taken place invisibly. Starting in the late 1960s, further expectations were raised about the possibility of Armageddon occurring in 1975. The Watch Tower Society has occasionally acknowledged errors, which it said helped "sift" the unfaithful from its ranks, but says adherents remained confident that "God's Word" had not failed.
Background
Since its development in the 1870s and formal registration in 1884, the Watch Tower Bible and Tract Society has claimed God chose that organization from among the churches to fill a special role in the consummation of prophetic history. Charles Taze Russell, a prolific writer and founder of the Bible Student movement, viewed himself as a "mouthpiece" of God and later as the embodiment of the "faithful and wise servant" of the parable of Matthew 24:45-47.Watch Tower, March 1, 1923, pages 68 and 71. The Watch Tower Society is now the legal and administrative arm of Jehovah's Witnesses. Its representatives assert that they have been given insight into the true meaning of the Bible and the unique ability to discern the signs of Christ's second coming.
The group's early ideology centered on the "Divine Plan of Salvation", a biblically derived outline of humanity's history and destiny, which was believed to be open to fuller understanding in the "last days". The creed incorporated Adam's fall and the entry of sin, evil, and death into the world. God was believed to be permitting the world's affairs to run their course before he implemented his plan to free humanity from evil, suffering, and death by means of the sacrificial death of Jesus Christ and the later establishment of God's kingdom on earth after his Second Coming.
The kingdom would be inaugurated through two phases, one destructive, the other constructive. In the first phase, earthly institutions would be overturned in a tumultuous period known as the "Battle of Armageddon". For several decades the group believed the worldwide disintegration of the social order would take the form of a bloody struggle between the wealthy and laboring classes, resulting in terror and anarchy. This would be followed by an era of reconstruction, in which sickness, pain, and death would be removed and righteousness would triumph.
Prior to the establishment of the kingdom, a chosen "little flock" of 144,000 anointed Christians would undergo a physical transformation from physical to spiritual form to achieve immortality. Since 1925, the Society has taught that Armageddon will be a universal war waged by God, resulting in the slaughter of the unfaithful. With that doctrinal change, the focus of the movement's premillennialism changed from awaiting its collective escape from earth to waiting for the impending destruction of the present world order in the Battle of Armageddon.
To clarify its identity, the group, which came to form the Bible Student movement, formulated a body of historical doctrine, including a mythical self-history, which provided a comprehensive symbolic linkage with the past but also fortified the movement's expectations for the future.
1878: End of the harvest
In 1876, Russell adopted the belief promulgated by some Adventist preachers that Jesus' parousia, or presence, had begun in 1874 and that the gathering of the little flock preliminary to the grand climax was already in progress. Using a form of parallel dispensations that incorporated "types" and "antitypes"—historical situations that prefigured later periods—he calculated that the harvest would extend only to 1878, at which time the gathered saints would be translated into spirit form.N.H. Barbour & C.T. Russell, Three Worlds and the Harvest of This World, Rochester, NY, 1877, pg 36-48, 124.
The failure of Russell's prediction did not significantly alter the movement's short-term, date-focused orientation. In early 1881 Russell asserted that 1878 had, indeed, been a milestone year, marking the point at which "the nominal Christian churches were cast off from God's favor"."Cast Not Away Therefore Your Confidence", Zion's Watch Tower, February 1881. In 1889, Russell wrote that God's kingdom began to exercise power in heaven in 1878, and that it indicated the return of God's favor to the Jews.
1881: A revised end of the harvest
By 1881, Russell extended the harvest to a new date later that year. He explained:
Russell wrote that "the light upon our pathway still shines and is more and more glorious" and that since 1878 the light had glowed stronger. The timing of their translation to heaven seemed nearer, he wrote: "We know not the day or hour, but expect it during 1881, possibly near the autumn where the parallels show the favor to Zion complete and due to end, the door to the marriage to shut, and the high calling to be the bride of Christ, to cease."
The failure of those new expectations precipitated a more serious crisis in the Bible Student ranks, and for several years Russell's followers waited for the belated translation to occur. Russell's chronological timetable had already identified 1914 as the ultimate end of the "time of trouble", and this preserved the commitment of followers who might have been discouraged by their failed expectations for 1881. Many members found it inconceivable that their earthly departure might be delayed that long."The Blessed Dying", Zion's Watch Tower, December 1881.
Russell consoled members with the news that 1881 had still marked the time when "death became a blessing" in the sense that any saint who died would henceforth be instantaneously changed into a spirit being. The revised view provided comfort for early believers who had held the view that the living faithful would never experience physical death, even though other members died while they awaited their upward call. After 1881, physical death was defined as one of the ways in which some of the saints might undergo their translation.
1914: The end of human rulership
Russell's Studies in the Scriptures series had explicitly identified October 1914 as the "full end of the times of the Gentiles" and consequently the "farthest limit" of human rulership. It would bring the beginning of Christ's millennial reign and all his followers expected the immediate "translation of the saints" to rule with the revealed Christ that year. Following the earth's tribulation and unrest, the Jews would return to God's favor, the "nominal Church" would have fallen, the final battle between Christ and Satan would have ended, the kingdoms of the world would be overthrown, and Christ would have gathered his saints into heaven, where they would reign with him, and when the millennium would begin.
The belief was unequivocal, based on his study of the Bible and the Great Pyramid of Giza, and satisfied only upon the establishment of an earthly paradise. Russell remarked that altering the prophecy by even one year would destroy the perfect symmetry of its biblical chronology. In the second book of his Studies in the Scriptures series he described it as "an established truth that the final end of the kingdoms of this world, and the full establishment of the Kingdom of God, will be accomplished at the end of A.D. 1914". The result, he wrote, was that "all present governments will be overthrown and dissolved", along with the destruction of "what God calls Babylon, and what men call Christendom". In an 1894 Watch Tower article, responding to readers who questioned whether the world could last until 1914 in view of political upheavals at the time, he wrote:
As 1914 approached, excitement mounted over the expected "change" of anointed Christians. Early that year some Bible Students, convinced the end of the world had arrived, began distributing their belongings, abandoning their jobs and eagerly anticipating the future. In May 1914—five months from the expected end—Russell warned followers against succumbing to doubt:
By September, Russell was preparing his readership for the possibility that "Armageddon may begin next spring, yet it is purely speculation to attempt to say just when", adding that the evidence pointed "to the year just before us—particularly the early months"."The Present Crisis", The Watch Tower, September 1, 1914.
When his expectations failed again, predictions were reverted to their earlier form. The Watch Tower stated: "It may be that many of the Lord's people were expecting more than they should have looked for to occur with the opening of the Jewish year 1915, which began with September 21. The human mind seems to have a natural tendency, and one with which we should have sympathy, to expect matters to culminate more rapidly, fulfillments to come more suddenly, than they ever do come[...] Studying God's Word, we have measured the 2520 years, the Seven symbolic Times, from that year 606 B.C. and have found that it reached down to October, 1914, as nearly as we were able to reckon. We did not say positively that this would be the year. We merely left every one to look at the facts of history and reckon for himself.""Making Ready for the Reign of Righteousness", Watch Tower, November 1914.
Russell took that opportunity to remind readers of earlier cautionary pronouncements. In 1912 he had left open the possibility that, if nothing happened in October 1914, it could still happen in October 1915. He also pointed out that the period of transition could run "a good many years".
In a lengthy article of consolation, Russell wrote that it was a testing time for Christ's disciples and that some Bible Students had unreal expectations. He said it was also possible that God's Kingdom on earth would be established gradually:
On October 2, 1914, he entered the staff dining room at the Watch Tower Society headquarters and declared that the Gentile times had ended and that "their kings have had their day." It signaled that God had withdrawn his benevolent disposition towards the Christian nations. The statement implied that the legitimacy of earthly governments had been downgraded in the eyes of God, which sociologist Joseph Zygmunt suggested may have contributed to the subsequent adoption of bolder tactics in condemning the global political system.
Russell viewed the outbreak of World War I as the beginning of Armageddon, which would soon descend into worldwide revolution"Pseudo-Apostles of the Present Day", Pastor Russell's Sermons, International Bible Students Association, 1917, pg 676, "The present great war in Europe is the beginning of the Armageddon of the Scriptures. (Rev. 16:16-20.) It will eventuate in the complete overthrow of all the systems of error which have so long oppressed the people of God and deluded the world. All iniquity of every kind will go down. The glorious Kingdom of Messiah is about to be set up in the earth, for the deliverance of the world and the establishment of permanent righteousness. We believe the present war cannot last much longer until revolution shall break out. The nations are rapidly impoverishing themselves." and in 1916, shortly before his death, he reaffirmed his conviction that the end was close and the harvest of saints was ongoing: