The 1980 October Surprise theory refers to the claim that members of Ronald Reagan's presidential campaign covertly negotiated with Iranian leaders to undermine incumbent U.S. president Jimmy Carter by delaying the release of 66 American hostages detained in Iran. The hostage situation, which began when Iranian revolutionaries seized the U.S. embassy in Tehran, was one of the biggest news stories of 1980, and Carter's inability to resolve it is widely believed to have contributed to his loss. The remaining hostages were released minutes after Reagan was inaugurated as President.
After 12 years of varying media attention, both houses of the U.S. Congress held separate inquiries and concluded that credible evidence supporting the allegation was absent or insufficient. Nevertheless, several individuals—most notably, former Iranian President Abulhassan Banisadr, former Lieutenant Governor of Texas Ben Barnes, former naval intelligence officer and U.S. National Security Council member Gary Sick, and Barbara Honegger, a former campaign staffer and White House analyst for both Reagan and his successor George H. W. Bush—have stood by the allegation.
Background
In November 1979, a number of U.S. hostages were captured in Iran during the Iranian Revolution. The Iran hostage crisis continued into 1980; as the November 1980 presidential election approached, there were concerns in the Republican Party that a resolution of the crisis could constitute an "October surprise" which might give incumbent Jimmy Carter enough of an electoral boost to be re-elected. After the release of the hostages on January 20, 1981, mere minutes after Republican challenger Ronald Reagan's inauguration, some charged that the Reagan campaign had made a secret deal with the Iranian government whereby the Iranians would hold the hostages until after Reagan was elected and inaugurated.
The issue of an "October Surprise" was brought up during an investigation by a House of Representatives Subcommittee into how the Reagan campaign obtained debate briefing materials of then-President Carter. During that investigation, sometimes referred to as Debategate, the Subcommittee on Human Resources of the House Post Office and Civil Service Committee obtained access to Reagan campaign documents. The documents included numerous references to a monitoring effort for any such October Surprise. The Subcommittee, chaired by former U.S. Representative Donald Albosta (D–MI), issued a comprehensive report on 17 May 1984, describing each type of information that was detected and its possible source. A section of the report was dedicated to the October Surprise issue.
Origins
The first printed instance of the October Surprise theory has been attributed to a story in the December 2, 1980, issue of Executive Intelligence Review, a periodical published by followers of Lyndon LaRouche, prior to the release of the hostages. Written by Robert Dreyfuss, the article cited "Iranian sources" in Paris as well as "Top level intelligence sources in Reagan's inner circle" as saying that Henry Kissinger met with representatives of Mohammad Beheshti during the week of November 12, 1980. The story claimed that "pro-Reagan British intelligence circles and the Kissinger faction" meeting with the Iranians six to eight weeks prior had interfered with "President Carter's efforts to secure an arms-for-hostage deal with Teheran". The LaRouche movement returned to the story in the September 2, 1983, issue of New Solidarity, stating "The deal ... fell through when the hard-line mullahs boycotted the Majlis in late October."
The theory garnered little attention until news of the Iran–Contra affair broke in November 1986. John M. Barry of Newsweek has said that Iran–Contra "created fertile ground for the October Surprise theory". Scott D'Amico in Conspiracies and Conspiracy Theories in American History wrote that "[t]he arms-deal arrangement provided credence to those who believed Reagan was fulfilling his end of the October surprise pact with Khomeni." In the November 24, 1986, issue of The New York Times, William Safire charged: "The geopolitical excuse offered now that the ransom was a plan to influence post-Khomeini Iran is a feeble cover-up. Robert McFarlane first approached the Reagan campaign in the summer of 1980 with an Iranian in tow who proposed to deliver our hostages to Mr. Reagan rather than President Carter, thereby swinging the U.S. election. The Reagan representatives properly recoiled, but Mr. McFarlane has had Iranian held hostages on the brain ever since."
Safire's piece was based upon information he solicited from Laurence Silberman in 1984 regarding a brief meeting four years earlier between Silberman, McFarlane, and Richard V. Allen with a Malaysian man who proposed a plan to contact someone who could influence Iran to delay the release of the hostages in order to embarrass the Carter administration.[32 Harv. J.L. & Pub. Pol'y 503. See also Dartmouth Alumni Magazine (Nov./Dec. 2008), at pp. 49-50.] Silberman later wrote: "Ironically, it was I who unwittingly initiated the so-called 'October Surprise' story, which grew into an utterly fantastic tale".
An article by Bob Woodward and Walter Pincus a few days later in the November 29, 1986 The Washington Post said that United States officials tied to Reagan, well before the Iran Contra affair, considered an initiative to sell US-made military parts to Iran in exchange for the hostage held there. The House October Surprise Task Force credited the Woodward/Pincus article as raising "claims that would become keystones in the October Surprise theory".
The Miami Herald published an article by Alfonso Chardy on April 12, 1987, that McFarlane, Silberman, and Allen had met with a man claiming to represent the Iranian government and offering the release of the hostages. Chardy's article also quoted exiled former Iranian president Abolhassan Banisadr who said he had learned that Beheshti and Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani were involved in negotiations with the Reagan campaign to delay the release of the hostages until Reagan became president.
Chronology
The House October Surprise Task Force, commenced in 1992, outlined as "principal allegations" three supposed meetings between representatives of Reagan's campaign and Iranian government officials in the summer and fall of 1980 to delay the release of the hostages: 1) a meeting in Madrid during the summer; 2) a meeting at the L'Enfant Plaza Hotel in Washington, D.C., that autumn; and 3) a meeting in Paris in October. The Task Force characterized three other alleged meetings or contacts as "ancillary allegations": 1) a meeting at the Mayflower Hotel in Washington, D.C., in early spring 1980; 2) a meeting at the Churchill Hotel in London in the summer of 1980; and 3) a meeting at The Sherry-Netherland hotel in New York City in January 1981.
Early 1980
Jamshid Hashemi told Gary Sick he was visited by campaign manager William Casey and Roy Furmark while staying at the Mayflower Hotel in Washington, D.C., in March 1980. Hashemi claimed Casey was aware of his contacts in Iran and wanted to discuss the American hostages held there. He told Sick that he then reported the meeting to his "intelligence contact" Charles Cogan, then a senior official within the CIA's Directorate of Operations. Hashemi later testified that he was alone with Casey and denied telling Sick that Furmark was present, and that the meeting with Casey occurred in July 1980. The House October Surprise Task Force concluded that there was no credible evidence to support the allegations. The Task Force said that Hashemi was the only source of the story, that he provided no evidence to substantiate the allegations, that there were major inconsistencies in his story to different parties, and that there was credible documentary and testimonial evidence inconsistent with his allegations.
In an October 1990 interview, Jamshid Hashemi told Gary Sick he was introduced to Donald Gregg, a U.S. National Security Council aide with connections to George H. W. Bush, at Cyrus Hashemi's office in New York City in the Spring of 1980. Jamshid told Sick that he and Cyrus had lunch with Gregg at a restaurant near Cyrus' office where they discussed the contacts that were underway between the brothers and the U.S. Government. The House October Surprise Task Force said that they found no credible evidence that Gregg met with the Hashemis, and noted that Jamshid recanted the allegation in testimony stating he had never met with Gregg. After Jamshid's testimony denying that he told Sick that he met with Gregg, he told Sick that the person he met with was actually Robert Gray. The Task Force concluded that Jamshid's "recent statements about this matter as totally devoid of credibility and probative of a tendency to modify his allegations to conform to subsequent revelations which are inconsistent with those allegations".
Mid-1980
Jamshid Hashemi was also the principal source for allegations that an American delegation consisting of William Casey, Donald Gregg, and another unidentified American met with Iranian officials Mehdi Karroubi and his brother Hassan Karrubi at the Hotel Ritz in Madrid. first in July 1980 then again the following month. Jamshid claimed he and Cyrus Hashemi attended the meetings to provide translation services between the two parties. According to Jamshid, Casey promised that in exchange for the hostages the new Reagan Administration would return all of Iranian's frozen assets and military equipment that had been withheld by Carter. Jamshid said Casey instructed the Iranians to hold the hostages until after the election. According to Jamshid, the meetings ended when Karrubi said he did not have the authority to make that commitment but would return to Tehran and seeking instructions from Ayatollah Khomeini. The Task Force said they "determined that Jamshid's allegations regarding meetings in Madrid in the summer of 1980 are fabrications" and that there was no credible evidence to support them.
Jamshid Hashemi alleged that Karrubi met again with Casey in Madrid on about August 12, 1980, saying Khomeini had agreed to the proposal, and that Casey agreed the next day, naming Cyrus Hashimi as middleman to handle the arms transactions. Hashemi also alleged that more meetings were set for October. The House October Surprise Task Force concluded that these allegations were not credible. Cyrus purchased a Greek ship and commences arms deliveries valued at $150 million from the Israeli port of Eilat to Bandar Abbas. According to CIA sources, Hashimi receives a $7 million commission.
Late 1980 On September 22, 1980, Iraq invaded Iran.
An expatriate Iranian arms dealer named Hushang Lavi claims that in late September 1980, he met with Richard Allen, Robert McFarlane, and Lawrence Silberman, and discussed the possible exchange of F-4 parts for American hostages, but Lavi says they asserted they "were already in touch with the Iranians themselves".
On October 15 to 20, meetings were held in Paris between emissaries of the Reagan-Bush campaign, with Casey as "key participant", and "high-level Iranian and Israeli representatives". On October 21, Iran, for reasons not explained, abruptly shifted its position in secret negotiations with the Carter administration, and disclaimed "further interest in receiving military equipment". (Congressional Record mirrored reprint )
On October 21 to 23, Israel secretly shipped F-4 fighter-aircraft tires to Iran, in violation of the U.S. arms embargo, and Iran dispersed the hostages to different locations.
On January 20, 1981, the hostages were formally released into United States custody after spending 444 days in captivity. The release takes place just minutes after Ronald Reagan is sworn in as president.
Investigations Gary Sick