2015 Portuguese legislative election

The 2015 Portuguese legislative election was held on 4 October. All 230 seats of the Assembly of the Republic were in contention.

The right-wing coalition Portugal Ahead (PàF), composed of the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the People's Party (CDS–PP), won a plurality of the vote with 38.6 percent, securing almost 47 percent of the seats in the Assembly. Compared with 2011, this was a loss of 12 points in support (although the PSD and the CDS–PP did not contest the 2011 election in coalition). On the electoral map, the coalition won every district in the North and in the Centre except Castelo Branco. They also won in the big districts of Lisbon and Porto. The map showed a clear north–south divide, with the conservative coalition winning almost everything in the North and Centre and the Socialist Party (PS) winning in the South.

The PS was the second most voted political force, winning 32.3 percent of the vote and 37 percent of the seats in the Parliament. The PS received a higher share of the vote than in 2011, but did not increase its share by as much of a margin as had been predicted by the opinion polls prior to September 2015, with António Costa, former mayor of Lisbon, even failing to win the city of Lisbon. Although the PS and the other left-wing parties did win a clear overall majority in Parliament, in his concession speech Costa said that he would not support "a negative coalition" with the Left Bloc and Communist Party and that he would rather talk and negotiate with the PSD/CDS–PP coalition. (a position he would later retract.)

The Left Bloc (BE), despite predictions by opinion polls, achieved its best result in history, with more than 10 percent of the vote, becoming the third largest parliamentary group. The CDU's (Communists and Greens) share of the vote increased slightly compared to 2011, receiving 8 percent of the vote and one additional MP. The People-Animals-Nature (PAN) also elected one member of parliament becoming the first time since 1999 in which a new party entered the Assembly. Voter turnout reached a new low, with just 55.8 percent of the electorate casting their ballot on election day.

Passos Coelho was asked, by the President of the Republic, to form a minority government that took the oath of office on October 30, 2015. The government fell after the approval of a motion to bring it down on 10 November. On 24 November, António Costa was appointed by the President of the Republic as Prime Minister-designate. Costa was sworn in on 26 November 2015.

Background

After the PSD/CDS–PP government was sworn in, a series of austerity policies, in the wake of the financial bailout agreement, were implemented, creating several backlash and protests. In September 2012, further austerity policies led to one of the biggest demonstrations against a government in Portuguese democracy, with more than 1 million people going out to the streets across the country. Because of this massive protest, the coalition government was deeply shaken and was forced to drop several policies.

By the summer of 2013, another crisis in the coalition government emerged. The Finance Minister Vítor Gaspar resigned in late June 2013, and Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho choose treasury Secretary, Maria Luís Albuquerque, to be the next Finance minister. However, CDS – People's Party (CDS-PP) leader, Paulo Portas, criticized the choice of the new minister and announced his "irrevocable" resignation from the government. Prime Minister Passos Coelho didn't accept Portas' resignation and refused also to leave office, opting, instead, to negotiate a new government organization with Portas. A deal was reached a few days later, in which Portas would become deputy prime minister and with more powers on economic affairs. But, President Aníbal Cavaco Silva refused to accept the deal and forced negotiations between PSD and PS, in which a deal between parties to maintain economic stability and a snap election in 2014 were on the table. Despite presidential pressure, talks between PSD and PS fell apart and Cavaco Silva was forced to accept the PSD/CDS–PP original deal.

The Social Democrats (PSD) suffered a considerable setback in the 2013 local elections by gathering just 31 percent of the votes and 106 mayors, a drop of 33 cities, while the Socialists (PS) obtained their best result till that date, 150 mayors, a gain of 18, with almost 37 percent of the votes. In May 2014, Portugal was successful in exiting the economic bailout that was negotiated in 2011, with the country having emerged from recession by mid-2013. The collapse and subsequent resolution of BES bank during the summer of 2014 also had an impact on the government. Furthermore, in the autumn of 2014, suspicions of tax evasion fell upon Prime Minister Passos Coelho during his time working in the private sector. These suspicions would be dismissed a few years later.

Leadership changes and challenges Socialist Party

After José Sócrates resignation from the party's leadership, due to the poor result of the Socialists in the 2011 election,"Sócrates demite-se de líder do PS e recusa novo cargo político", Público, 5 June 2011. Retrieved 21 November 2021. a snap leadership election was called to elect a new leader for 22 and 23 July 2011."Diretas no PS marcadas para 22 e 23 de julho ", RTP, 8 July 2011. Retrieved 21 November 2021. There were two candidates on the ballot: António José Seguro and Francisco Assis."António José Seguro votou "tranquilo" e "muito confiante" nos resultados das directas do PS ", SIC Notícias, 22 July 2011. Retrieved 21 November 2021. Seguro was elected by a landslide and the results were the following:

Two years later, in April 2013, Seguro was challenged by party member Aires Pedro to the leadership. There were 43,034 party members registered to cast a ballot, and Seguro was easily re-elected with nearly 97% of the votes, against the just 3% for Pedro."Seguro reeleito líder do PS", Expresso, 14 April 2013. Retrieved 3 March 2026.

Seguro's leadership was constantly marred by internal infighting, coming mainly from then Mayor of Lisbon António Costa, which despite forging a deal with Seguro to not challenge him for the leadership in early 2013, Costa never really ended speculations about it. Following the party's disappointing result in the 2014 European Parliament elections, in which the PS got just 31 percent of the votes against the 28 percent of the PSD/CDS coalition, António Costa called the results "tiny" (poucochinho), and challenged António José Seguro for the leadership."Costa diz que não basta ganhar por poucochinho" , Diário de Notícias, 12 July 2014. Retrieved 8 December 2022. Seguro rejected a leadership ballot, but called an open primary, for 28 September 2014, on who should be the party's candidate for prime minister in the 2015 election. It was the first open primary in the history of the party, and of Portugal. In end, only two candidates ran: António José Seguro, General Secretary of the party at the time of the primary, and António Costa, mayor of Lisbon. Nearly 250,000 people registered to cast a ballot in the primary. António Costa won the primary by a landslide with 67.9 percent of the vote against the 31.7 percent of Antonio José Seguro, resulting in Seguro conceding defeat and resigning as General Secretary of the party. Thereafter, Costa was elected as the new Socialist General Secretary on 22 November 2014."António Costa eleito secretário-geral do PS com 96% dos votos", Jornal de Negócios, 23 November 2014. Retrieved 18 December 2014. The results were the following:

The start of António Costa's term as PS leader was, however, marred by the arrest of former Socialist Prime Minister José Sócrates on 21 November 2014, due to an inquiry which accused the former prime minister of crimes of tax fraud, money laundering and corruption."Sócrates detido no aeroporto com base em "comunicação bancária"", Público, 22 November 2014. Retrieved 13 September 2024.

Left Bloc One year after the disappointing results of the party in the 2011 elections, the then Left Bloc leader, Francisco Louçã, decided to leave the leadership"Francisco Louçã abandona liderança do Bloco de Esquerda", Jornal de Negócios, 18 August 2012. Retrieved 21 November 2021. and a party convention was held to elect a new leader. In November 2012, the party elected a dual leadership headed by João Semedo and Catarina Martins."João Semedo e Catarina Martins eleitos líderes do Bloco", Público, 11 November 2012. Retrieved 21 November 2021.

|- style="background-color:#E9E9E9" ! align="center" colspan=2 style="width: 60px"|Candidate ! align="center" style="width: 50px"|Votes ! align="center" style="width: 50px"|% |- |bgcolor=| | align=left | João SemedoCatarina Martins | align=right | 359 | align=right | 76.5 |- |bgcolor=| | align=left | João Madeira | align=right | 110 | align=right | 23.5 |- |- style="background-color:#E9E9E9" | colspan=2 style="text-align:left;" | Turnout | align=right | 469 | align=right | |- | colspan="4" align=left|Source: Results |}However, bad polling and election results, specially the 2014 European elections results, put pressure in the party's leadership,"BE: Rosas critica ‘rotura sem princípio’, Fazenda recusa ‘anátema’ de divisionista", Sol, 22 November 2014. Retrieved 21 November 2021. and a new party convention, in 2014, showed a very divided party as the dual leadership of Semedo and Martins was reelected by a very slim margin. The results were the following:

2015 Portuguese legislative election

Bron en licentie