Post-election pendulum for the 1999 Victorian state election

The following is a Mackerras pendulum for the 1999 Victorian state election.

"Safe" seats require a swing of over 10 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.

Labor seats   Liberal-National seats   Seat Margin Swing   Seat Margin Swing   Broadmeadows 24.7 -0.4           Thomastown 23.9 +1.9           Coburg 21.8 +4.9   Malvern 16.6 +1.0   Sunshine 20.2 +1.1   Murray Valley 15.9 +6.5   Preston 18.6 +3.3   Rodney 15.7 +10.5   Williamstown 18.5 +2.9   Brighton 15.6 +2.5   Footscray 17.6 -1.8   Wimmera 1 15.1 *   Richmond 16.2 -1.1   Hawthorn 14.1 -0.5   Northcote 16.1 -3.8   Kew 13.8 +1.2   Mill Park 15.8 +1.9   Warrandyte 13.5 +0.4   Pascoe Vale 14.9 +3.8   Doncaster 13.3 +1.7   Altona 14.7 +6.5   Glen Waverley 13.2 +2.5   Melbourne 13.8 -2.1   Sandringham 12.5 +1.8   Keilor 11.9 +0.3   Wantirna 11.9 +1.2   Clayton 11.7 +2.1   Bulleen 11.6 +3.0   Werribee 11.5 +0.8   Mooroolbark 10.9 +1.3   Melton 11.3 -0.9   Frankston 10.7 +4.7   Bendigo West 11.3 +9.1   Polwarth 10.7 -2.6   Geelong North 10.9 +2.8   Evelyn 9.5 +3.2   Springvale 10.8 +2.9   Warrnambool 8.8 +5.0   Morwell 8.9 +6.2   Caulfield 8.5 +0.8   Essendon 8.5 +5.1   Box Hill 7.6 +2.7   Dandenong North 8.0 +5.8   Gippsland South 7.5 +11.9   Gippsland East 2 7.7 *   Benalla 7.4 +7.9   Niddrie 6.8 +2.4   Knox 7.3 +0.6   Albert Park 6.4 -2.4   Forest Hill 7.1 +3.4   Mildura 3 6.1 *   Benambra 7.1 +7.9   Bundoora 6.1 +3.5   Burwood 6.8 +1.8   Dandenong 5.8 +2.4   Pakenham 6.5 +4.6   Ivanhoe 5.4 +3.9   Dromana 6.2 +1.9   Frankston East 4.6 +7.7   Bennettswood 6.1 +3.1   Yan Yean 4.2 +2.6   Mornington 5.7 +5.6   Gippsland West 4 3.9 *   Cranbourne 5.7 +3.4   Tullamarine 3.8 +7.0   Berwick 5.0 +0.4   Ballarat East 3.7 +4.7   South Barwon 4.7 +5.5   Oakleigh 3.3 +3.4   Bayswater 4.7 +2.8   Bendigo East 2.9 +7.9   Portland 4.5 +5.9   Ripon 2.6 +7.2   Shepparton 5 4.1 *   Narracan 2.5 +4.1   Prahran 4.0 +0.6   Gisborne 1.6 +9.4   Eltham 3.6 +3.3   Ballarat West 1.0 +5.8   Monbulk 3.2 +2.0   Seymour 0.7 +4.9   Swan Hill 6 2.8 *   Mitcham 0.5 +5.8   Mordialloc 2.2 +2.5   Carrum 0.2 +1.3   Bentleigh 1.9 +2.8   Geelong 0.0 +3.5   Bellarine 1.7 +3.8

Notes Seats which changed hands are shown in bold.

A plus (+) sign in front of a swing figure indicates a swing towards Labor and a minus (-) sign indicates a swing to the Liberal-National parties.

1 No swing figure is available for this seat due to the lack of a Labor versus Liberal-National margin at the previous election.

2 The margin for this seat is Independent (Craig Ingram) over National.

3 The margin for this seat is Independent (Russell Savage) over Liberal.

4 The margin for this seat is Independent (Susan Davies) over Liberal.

5 The margin for this seat is National over Independent (Chris Hazelman).

6 The margin for this seat is National over Independent (Carl Ditterich).

References