2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Utah

The 2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Utah were held on Tuesday, November 6, 2012, and elected the four U.S. representatives from the state of Utah, an increase of one seat in reapportionment following the 2010 United States census. The elections coincided with the elections of other federal and state offices, including a quadrennial federal presidential election, a concurrent quadrennial statewide gubernatorial election, all other simultaneous quadrennial statewide executive official election, and an election to the U.S. Senate. Primary elections were held on June 26, 2012.

Overview United States House of Representatives elections in Utah, 2012PartyVotesPercentageSeats BeforeSeats After+/– Republican 647,873 64.86% 2 3 +1 Democratic 324,309 32.47% 1 1 - Constitution 14,481 1.45% 0 0 - Libertarian 6,439 0.64% 0 0 - Independent 5,795 0.58% 0 0 - Totals 998,897 100.00% 3 4 +1

Redistricting In Utah, the redistricting process was controlled by members of the Republican Party, who formed a majority on the State Legislature's redistricting committee. The plan, passed in October 2011, divided Salt Lake County among three districts, which Republicans argued would require Utah's U.S. representatives to focus on both urban and rural issues. Jim Dabakis, the chair of the Utah Democratic Party, argued that the map constituted a gerrymander designed to benefit the Republican Party.

District 1 Republican incumbent Rob Bishop, who had represented Utah's 1st congressional district since 2003, ran for re-election, having decided against running for governor.

Republican primary Candidates Nominee Rob Bishop, incumbent U.S. representative

Eliminated in primary Leonard "Joe" Fabiano, business entrepreneur and candidate for senate in 2010 Jacqueline Smith, homemaker and Tea Party activist

Withdrawn Michael Miller, Iraq War veteran

Results Rob Bishop became the official Republican candidate on April 21, 2012 at the State Republican Convention.

Democratic primary Candidates Nominee Donna McAleer, management consultant and West Point graduate

Eliminated in primary Ryan Combe, small business owner

Results

Constitution primary Candidates Nominee Sherry Phipps

General election Polling Poll sourceDate(s)administeredSamplesizeMargin of errorRobBishop (R)DonnaMcAleer (D)SherryPhipps (C) UndecidedDan Jones & AssociatesDan Jones & Associates October 26–November 1, 2012 194 (RV) ±7.0% 70% 15% 2% 10%Key Research/Brigham Young UniversityKey Research/Brigham Young University October 9–13, 2012 407 (LV) ±7.0% 62% 20% – 18%

Predictions SourceRankingAs of The Cook Political Report November 5, 2012 Rothenberg November 2, 2012 Roll Call November 4, 2012 Sabato's Crystal BallCrystal Ball , November 5, 2012 NY Times November 4, 2012RCP November 4, 2012The Hill November 4, 2012

Results

By county Source

County Rob BishopRepublican Donna M. McAleerDemocratic Sherry PhippsConstitution Margin Total Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %Box Elder15,64281.68%2,71114.16%7974.16%12,93167.52%19,150Cache31,51876.29%8,07619.55%1,7184.16%23,44256.74%41,312Daggett34170.60%11824.43%244.97%22346.17%483Davis52,78075.48%14,52320.77%2,6213.75%38,25754.71%69,924Duchesne5,08981.94%79612.82%3265.25%4,29369.12%6,211Morgan3,64981.32%64814.44%1904.23%3,00166.88%4,487Rich82884.58%11011.24%414.19%71873.34%979Summit7,39143.28%9,31754.55%3712.17%-1,926-11.28%17,079Uintah9,65985.14%1,30111.47%3853.39%8,35873.67%11,345Weber48,59065.17%23,01130.86%2,9573.97%25,57934.31%74,558

District 2 Democratic incumbent Jim Matheson, who had represented Utah's 2nd congressional district since 2001, sought re-election in the new 4th district.

Democratic primary Candidates Nominee Jay Seegmiller, former state representative

Eliminated in primary Dean Collinwood Mike Small

Republican primary Candidates Nominee Chris Stewart, author, former U.S. Air Force pilot, and president of an energy consulting firm

Eliminated in primary Jason Buck, former American football player at Brigham Young University and in the National Football League Dave Clark, former speaker of the Utah House of Representatives Cherilyn Eagar, business owner and candidate for Senate in 2010 Robert Fuehr, former telecommunications executive and Harvard University MBA alumnus Milton Hanks Edward Mayerhofer Jeramey McElhaney, small business owner Howard Wallack Chuck Williams, former assistant Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Installations and Environment and retired U.S. Air Force lieutenant colonel John Willoughby, airline pilot

Withdrawn Morgan Philpot, former state representative and nominee for this seat in 2010

Declined Dan Liljenquist, state senator

Results

Constitution primary Candidates Nominee Jonathan D. Garrard

Independents Independent candidate Charles Kimball also filed.

General election Endorsements

Polling Poll sourceDate(s)administeredSamplesizeMargin of errorJaySeegmiller (D)ChrisStewart (R)OtherUndecidedDan Jones & AssociatesDan Jones & Associates October 26–November 1, 2012 229 (RV) ±6.5% 28% 44% 5% 22%Mason-Dixon/Salt Lake TribuneMason-Dixon/Salt Lake Tribune October 29–31, 2012 625 (LV) ±4.0% 28% 55% 5% 12%Key Research/Brigham Young University October 9–13, 2012 100 (LV) ±10.0% 20% 46% – 34%

Predictions SourceRankingAs of The Cook Political Report November 5, 2012 Rothenberg November 2, 2012 Roll Call November 4, 2012 Sabato's Crystal Ball November 5, 2012 NY Times November 4, 2012RCP November 4, 2012The Hill November 4, 2012

Results

By county Source

County Chris StewartRepublican Jay SeegmillerDemocratic Jonathan D. GarrardConstitution Joseph AndradeIndependent Charles E. KimballIndependent Margin Total Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %Beaver1,92677.69%46518.76%502.02%130.52%251.01%1,46158.94%2,479Davis36,13374.15%11,10922.80%7531.55%2880.59%4450.91%25,02451.35%48,728Garfield1,66679.56%34316.38%462.20%150.72%241.15%1,32363.18%2,094Iron12,69578.01%2,73716.82%4762.92%1340.82%2321.43%9,95861.19%16,274Juab18152.31%14943.06%92.60%30.87%41.16%329.25%346Kane2,29370.73%80224.74%611.88%381.17%481.48%1,49145.99%3,242Millard4,00180.91%65913.33%1573.17%460.93%821.66%3,34267.58%4,945Piute63685.14%7610.17%162.14%81.07%111.47%56074.97%747Salt Lake30,29736.06%49,20558.57%1,4121.68%1,9702.34%1,1271.34%-18,908-22.51%84,011Sanpete4,30784.09%61111.93%1202.34%200.39%641.25%3,69672.16%5,122Sevier6,55183.18%1,02312.99%1371.74%490.62%1161.47%5,52870.19%7,876Tooele12,42366.64%5,06427.16%8004.29%1200.64%2361.27%4,77251.63%18,643Washington40,40176.59%10,70020.28%1,0061.91%2530.48%3920.74%29,70156.30%52,752Wayne1,01378.77%23318.12%80.62%141.09%181.40%78060.65%1,286

District 3 Jason Chaffetz was seeking a third term in representing Utah's 3rd congressional district.

Republican primary Candidates Nominee Jason Chaffetz, incumbent U.S. representative

Eliminated in primary Brian Jenkins Lynn D. Wardle

Withdrawn Kurt Bradburn Leonard "Joe" Fabiano, business entrepreneur and candidate for senate in 2010

Results

Democratic primary Candidates Nominee Soren Simonsen, Salt Lake City Council chair

Eliminated in primary Richard Clark

General election Endorsements

Polling Poll sourceDate(s)administeredSamplesizeMargin of errorJasonChaffetz (R)SorenSimonsen (D)OtherUndecidedDan Jones & AssociatesDan Jones & Associates October 26–November 1, 2012 232 ±6.4% 68% 18% 3% 10%Key Research/Brigham Young UniversityKey Research/Brigham Young University October 9–13, 2012 100 (LV) ±4.4% 68% 15% — 17%

Predictions SourceRankingAs of The Cook Political Report November 5, 2012 Rothenberg November 2, 2012 Roll Call, November 4, 2012 Sabato's Crystal Ball November 5, 2012 NY TimesHouse Race Ratings, The New York Times, November 4, 2012RCP, November 4, 2012The Hill November 4, 2012

Results

By county Source

County Jason ChaffetzRepublican Soren D. SimonsenDemocratic Margin Total Votes % Votes % Votes %Carbon4,58262.51%2,74837.49%1,83425.02%7,330Emery3,43680.47%83419.53%2,60260.94%4,270Grand1,91950.70%1,86649.30%531.40%3,785Salt Lake52,31262.78%31,00837.22%21,30425.57%83,320San Juan3,10159.50%2,11140.50%99018.99%5,212Utah126,64386.57%19,64913.43%106,99473.14%146,292Wasatch6,83573.20%2,50326.80%4,33246.39%9,338

District 4 Democratic U.S. Representative Jim Matheson, who had represented Utah's 2nd congressional district since 2001 and had considered running for governor or for the U.S. Senate, sought re-election to the House in Utah's new 4th congressional district after his previous seat was split up by the redistricting.

Democratic primary Candidates Nominee Jim Matheson, incumbent U.S. representative for the 2nd district

Republican primary Candidates Nominee Mia Love, mayor of Saratoga Springs

Eliminated in primary Jay Cobb, attorney Kenneth Gray Stephen Sandstrom, state representative Carl Wimmer, state representative

Declined Jason Buck, former American football player at Brigham Young University and National Football League

Polling Poll sourceDate(s)administeredSamplesizeMargin of error JayCobb MiaLove StephenSandstrom CarlWimmerOtherUndecidedMason-DixonMason-Dixon April 9–11, 2011 625 (LV) ± 4.0% — 23% 14% 35% 28% — Dan Jones & Associates December 19–21, 2011 341 (RV) ± 5.3% 3% 8% 15% 15% 19% 41%

Results In the Republican convention, held on April 21, 2012, Love received 70.4% of the vote (she needed more than 60% to avoid a primary).

Libertarian primary Candidates Nominee Jim Vein

Withdrawn Ken Larsen, medical researcher

Justice primary Candidates Withdrawn Torin Nelson

General election Campaign Despite beginning her campaign at a significant name-recognition disadvantage to Matheson, Love was able to mount a strong challenge. This was in part fueled by a prime-time speaking slot at the Republican National Convention, where she impressed many with her backstory of a being the daughter of Haitian immigrants whose parents "Immigrated to the U.S. with $10 in their pocket" and her themes of self-reliance, small government and fiscal responsibility. However, she was later hit by claims that she was technically an "anchor baby", despite having seemingly backing the deportation of the US-born children of illegal immigrants.

Facing a district largely new to him, Matheson ran ads showcasing his independent credentials and airing clips of Love voicing support for cutting the Department of Education and privatizing Social Security. Despite the NRCC running ads trying to tie him to Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama, Matheson's favorability rating remained at around 60% throughout the campaign.

Endorsements

Polling Poll sourceDate(s)administeredSamplesizeMargin of error JimMatheson (D) MiaLove (R) JimVein (L) UndecidedDan Jones & AssociatesDan Jones & Associates October 26–November 1, 2012 414 (RV) ±4.8% 43% 48% 3% 6%Mason-Dixon/Salt Lake Tribune October 29–31, 2012 625 (LV) ±4.0% 40% 52% 2% 6%Key Research/Brigham Young University October 9–13, 2012 407 (LV) ±7.0% 43% 43% — 14%Global Strategy (D)Global Strategy (D) October 9–10, 2012 407 (LV) ±4.9% 48% 41% — 11%Dan Jones & AssociatesDan Jones & Associates September 26–29, 2012 414 (RV) ±5.0% 43% 49% — 8%Public Opinion Strategies (R-Love)/NRCC)Public Opinion Strategies (R-Love/NRCC) September 10–11, 2012 400 (LV) ±4.9% 36% 51% — 13%Global Strategy (D)Global Strategy (D) July 26–29, 2012 400 (LV) ±4.9% 51% 33% — 16%Dan Jones & AssociatesDan Jones & Associates June 15–21, 2012 379 (RV) ±5.1% 53% 38% 1% 8%Mason-Dixon/Salt Lake TribuneMason-Dixon/Salt Lake Tribune April 9–11, 2012 625 (LV) ±4.0% 45% 42% — 13%Dan Jones & AssociatesDan Jones & Associates December 19–21, 2011 341 (RV) ±5.3% 53% 36% 4% 12%

An early poll published by the Deseret News on Dec 25, 2011 showed Jim Matheson leading all potential opponents.

With Cobb Poll sourceDate(s)administeredSamplesizeMargin of error JimMatheson (D) JayCobb (R)Undecided Dan Jones & Associates December 19–21, 2011 341 (RV) ±5.3% 54% 35% 11%

With Sandstrom