2014 United States Senate election in Louisiana

The 2014 United States Senate election in Louisiana was held on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Louisiana.

Incumbent senator Mary Landrieu ran for re-election to a fourth term in office against U.S. Representative Bill Cassidy and several other candidates. This was one of the seven Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state that Mitt Romney won in the 2012 presidential election.

Under Louisiana's jungle primary system, all candidates appear on the same ballot, regardless of party and voters may vote for any candidate, regardless of their party affiliation. Louisiana is the only state that has a jungle primary system (California and Washington have a similar "top two primary" system). Since no candidate received a majority of the vote in the primary election, a runoff election was held on December 6, 2014, between the top two candidates, Landrieu and Cassidy.

In the December 6 runoff, Cassidy defeated Landrieu by 11.86 percentage points (55.93% to 44.07%), settling the fate of the final Senate seat of the 2014 midterms, becoming the first Republican to hold this seat since 1883, and giving Senate Republicans 54 seats in the 114th Congress. Since Cassidy took office in 2015, Republicans have held both of Louisiana's Senate seats, which they had not done since William Pitt Kellogg resigned in 1872. Cassidy's victory in the 2014 runoff also rendered Cedric Richmond as Louisiana's only congressional Democrat.

Background Elections in Louisiana, with the exception of U.S. presidential elections, follow a variation of the open primary system called the jungle primary. Candidates of any and all parties are listed on one ballot; voters need not limit themselves to the candidates of one party. Unless one candidate takes more than 50% of the vote in the first round, a run-off election is then held between the top two candidates, who may in fact be members of the same party. This scenario occurred in the 7th District congressional race in 1996, when Democrats Chris John and Hunter Lundy made the runoff for the open seat, and in 1999, when Republicans Suzanne Haik Terrell and Woody Jenkins made the runoff for Commissioner of Elections.

Candidates Democratic Party Declared Wayne Ables Mary Landrieu, incumbent U.S. Senator Vallian Senegal William Waymire, retired Marine

Withdrew Raymond Brown, minister, civil rights activist and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 1998 and 2002 (endorsed Landrieu)

Declined Edwin Edwards, former Governor of Louisiana and former U.S. Representative (running for LA-06)

Republican Party Declared Bill Cassidy, U.S. Representative Thomas Clements, small business owner Rob Maness, retired U.S. Air Force Colonel

Withdrew Paul Hollis, state representative

Declined Scott Angelle, member of the Louisiana Public Service Commission and former Lieutenant Governor of Louisiana Charles Boustany, U.S. Representative Jay Dardenne, Lieutenant Governor of Louisiana John Fleming, U.S. Representative Elbert Guillory, state senator Bobby Jindal, Governor of Louisiana Jeff Landry, former U.S. Representative Tony Perkins, president of the Family Research Council, former state representative and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2002 Phil Robertson, reality television star Buddy Roemer, former Governor of Louisiana, former U.S. Representative and candidate for President of the United States in 2012 Chas Roemer, president of the Louisiana Board of Elementary and Secondary Education and son of former governor Buddy Roemer Steve Scalise, U.S. Representative Alan Seabaugh, state representative

Libertarian Party Declared Brannon McMorris, electrical engineer

Jungle primary Debates Complete video of debate, October 14, 2014 Complete video of debate, October 29, 2014

Endorsements

Polling

Poll source MaryLandrieu (D) BillCassidy (R) PaulHollis (R) RobManess (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling August 16–19, 2013 721 ± 3.6% 48% 24% — 5% — 23%Southern Media & Opinion ResearchSouthern Media & Opinion Research November 6–12, 2013 600 ± 4% 41% 34% — 10% — 16%Harper PollingHarper Polling January 19–20, 2014 992 ± 3.11% 42% 29% 4% 4% — 20%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling February 6–9, 2014 635 ± 3.9% 43% 25% 5% 3% — 25%Magellan StrategiesMagellan Strategies March 24–26, 2014 600 ± 4.1% 39% 26% 3% 3% — 28%Harper PollingHarper Polling April 7–9, 2014 538 ± 4.22% 40% 35% 3% 4% — 18%New York Times/Kaiser FamilyNew York Times/Kaiser Family April 8–15, 2014 946 ± ? 42% 18% 5% 4% 3% 27%Southern Media & Opinion ResearchSouthern Media & Opinion Research April 28–30, 2014 600 ± 4% 36% 35% 4% 7% — 18%Greenberg Quinlan RosnerGreenberg Quinlan Rosner May 5–8, 2014 600 ± 4% 48% 29% 8% 7% — 8%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling June 26–29, 2014 664 ± 3.8% 44% 27% 5% 8% — 17%Senate Conservatives FundSenate Conservatives Fund August 16–18, 2014 600 ± 4% 43% 32% — 16% 1% 8%CBS News/NYT/YouGovCBS News/NYT/YouGov August 18 – September 2, 2014 870 ± 5% 36% 38% — 10% 3%Thomas Clements 2%, Brannon McMorris 1%, Other 0% 11%Greenberg Quinlan RosnerGreenberg Quinlan Rosner August 28 – September 2, 2014 600 ± 4% 47% 32% — 13% — 8%Gravis MarketingGravis Marketing September 5–9, 2014 426 ± 5% 45% 30% — 14% — 12%Fox NewsFox News September 14–16, 2014 617 ± 4% 31% 35% — 7% — 16%CNN/ORCCNN/ORC September 22–25, 2014 610 LV ± 4% 43% 40% — 9% 4% 4% 866 RV ± 3.5% 45% 35% — 8% 6% 5%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling September 25–28, 2014 1,141 ± 2.9% 42% 34% — 12% 2% 10%Hickman AnalyticsHickman Analytics September 26 – October 2, 2014 502 ± 4.4% 39% 30% — 6% 5%Wayne Ables (D) 0%, Thomas Clements (R) 1%, Brannon McMorris (L) 3%, Vallian Senegal (D) 0%, William Waymire (D) 1% 19%0ptimus0ptimus September 30 – October 2, 2014 5,711 ± 1.3% 38% 36% — 18% — 9%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports October 13–14, 2014 965 ± 3% 41% 38% — 14% 2% 5%Vox Populi Polling October 13–14, 2014 546 ± 4.2% 38% 38% — 10% 6%Brannon McMorris (L) 2%, Other 4% 8%Multi-Quest InternationalMulti-Quest International October 14–19, 2014 605 ± 4% 36% 32% — 6% 3% 23%Rasmussen Reports October 22–23, 2014 988 ± 3% 43% 36% — 13% 3% 6%CBS News/NYT/YouGovCBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 2014 1,316 ± 5% 37% 32% — 5% 5%Wayne Ables (D) 0%, Raymond Brown (D) 1%, Thomas Clements (R) 1%, Brannon McMorris (L) 3%, Vallian Senegal (D) 0%, William Waymire (D) 0%, Other 0% 19%University of New OrleansUniversity of New Orleans October 11–24, 2014 590 ± 4.1% 38% 33% — 7% 1% 21%Suffolk UniversitySuffolk University October 23–26, 2014 500 ± 4% 36% 35% — 11% 3%Wayne Ables (D) 1%, Thomas Clements (R) 1%, Brannon McMorris (L) 1%, Vallian Senegal (D) 0%, William Waymire (D) 0% 15%NBC News/MaristNBC News/Marist October 26–30, 2014 630 LV ± 3.9% 44% 36% — 15% 1% 4% 961 RV ± 3.2% 42% 35% — 15% 1% 6%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling October 30 – November 1, 2014 1,003 ± 3.1% 43% 35% — 15% 1% 6%

Jungle primary Poll source MaryLandrieu (D) BillCassidy (R) PaulHollis (R) RobManess (R) PhilRobertson (R) UndecidedPublic Policy Polling February 6–9, 2014 635 ± 3.9% 40% 21% 5% 4% 13% 18%

Poll source MaryLandrieu (D) BillCassidy (R) JohnFleming (R) ElbertGuillory (R) ChasRoemer (R) UndecidedPublic Policy Polling August 16–19, 2013 721 ± 3.6% 47% 20% — 6% 2% 25%Public Opinion Strategies^Public Opinion Strategies^ March 3–5, 2013 500 ± 4.38% 47% 14% 15% — 6% 18%

^ Internal poll for John Fleming Campaign

Republican primary Poll source BillCassidy (R) ChasRoemer (R) UndecidedHarper PollingHarper Polling April 6–7, 2013 541 ± 4.21% 38% 14% 48%

Results

Runoff Debates Complete video of debate, December 1, 2014

Predictions Source Ranking As of The Cook Political Report November 21, 2014 Sabato's Crystal Ball December 4, 2014 Rothenberg Political Report November 6, 2014 Real Clear Politics November 19, 2014

Polling Poll source MaryLandrieu (D) BillCassidy (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling February 8–12, 2013 603 ± 4% 50% 40% — 10%Harper Polling April 6–7, 2013 541 ± 4.21% 46% 41% — 13%On Message Inc.On Message Inc. August 13–15, 2013 600 ± 4.0% 45% 43% — 12%Harper PollingHarper Polling August 14–15, 2013 596 ± 4.01% 45% 47% — 8%Public Policy Polling August 16–19, 2013 721 ± 3.6% 50% 40% — 10%Harper PollingHarper Polling September 22–23, 2013 561 ± 4.14% 46% 44% — 10%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling October 14–15, 2013 632 ± 3.9% 48% 41% — 11%Harper Polling January 19–20, 2014 992 ± 3.11% 44% 45% — 11%Rasmussen Reports January 28–29, 2014 500 ± 4.5% 40% 44% 5% 11%Public Policy Polling February 6–9, 2014 635 ± 3.9% 45% 44% — 10%Hickman AnalyticsHickman Analytics February 17–24, 2014 404 ± 4.9% 42% 46% — 11%Voter/Consumer ResearchVoter/Consumer Research February 20–25, 2014 600 ± 4% 45% 44% 1% 9%Harper Polling April 7–9, 2014 538 ± 4.22% 43% 47% — 10%Magellan StrategiesMagellan Strategies April 14–15, 2014 775 ± 3.52% 42% 44% 10% 4%Greenberg Quinlan Rosner May 5–8, 2014 600 ± 4% 49% 49% — 2%Magellan StrategiesMagellan Strategies June 5–8, 2014 719 ± 3.65% 44% 50% 5% 1%Public Policy Polling June 26–29, 2014 664 ± 3.8% 47% 47% — 6%Rasmussen Reports July 8–9, 2014 750 ± 4% 46% 43% 5% 6%CBS News/NYT/YouGovCBS News/NYT/YouGov July 5–24, 2014 1,456 ± 3.5% 46% 47% 6% 2%Senate Conservatives Fund August 16–18, 2014 600 ± 4% 49% 43% — 8%Greenberg Quinlan Rosner August 28 – September 2, 2014 600 ± 4% 48% 46% — 6%Rasmussen Reports September 2–3, 2014 800 ± 3.5% 41% 44% 9% 6%Gravis Marketing September 5–9, 2014 426 ± 5% 45% 45% — 10%Fox News September 14–16, 2014 617 ± 4% 38% 51% — 9%CNN/ORC September 22–25, 2014 610 LV ± 4% 47% 50% — 3% 866 RV ± 3.5% 51% 45% — 4%Public Policy Polling September 25–28, 2014 1,141 ± 2.9% 45% 48% — 7%CBS News/NYT/YouGov September 20 – October 1, 2014 2,187 ± 2% 41% 47% 0% 13%Hickman Analytics September 26 – October 2, 2014 502 ± 4.4% 45% 46% — 9%Rasmussen Reports October 13–14, 2014 965 ± 3% 43% 52% — 5%Vox Populi Polling October 13–14, 2014 546 ± 4.2% 44% 48% — 8%Multi-Quest International October 14–19, 2014 605 ± 4% 40% 43% — 17%Rasmussen Reports October 22–23, 2014 988 ± 3% 46% 50% — 4%CBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 2014 1,316 ± 5% 42% 46% 0% 12%University of New OrleansUniversity of New Orleans October 11–24, 2014 590 ± 4.1% 43% 51% — 6%Suffolk UniversitySuffolk University October 23–26, 2014 500 ± 4% 41% 48% — 11%NBC News/Marist October 26–30, 2014 630 LV ± 3.9% 45% 50% 1% 5% 961 RV ± 3.2% 44% 49% 2% 6%Public Policy Polling October 30 – November 1, 2014 1,003 ± 3.1% 47% 48% — 5%Gravis MarketingGravis Marketing November 12–14, 2014 643 ± 4% 38% 59% — 3%Vox Populi Polling November 16–17, 2014 761 ± 3.55% 42% 53% — 5%Rasmussen Reports November 16–19, 2014 1,000 ± 3% 41% 56% — 3%JJMC AnalyticsJJMC Analytics November 20, 2014 754 ± 3.6% 40% 55% — 5%GEB InternationalGEB International November 20, 2014 850 ± 3.36% 34% 60% — 6%WPA Opinion ResearchWPA Opinion Research November 24–25, 2014 500 ± 4.4% 33% 57% — 10%Rasmussen Reports December 2–4, 2014 1,000 ± 3% 40% 56% — 4%

Poll source MaryLandrieu (D) CharlesBoustany (R) UndecidedPublic Policy Polling February 8–12, 2013 603 ± 4% 48% 42% 10%

Poll source MaryLandrieu (D) JayDardenne (R) UndecidedPublic Policy Polling February 8–12, 2013 603 ± 4% 46% 43% 11%

Poll source MaryLandrieu (D) JohnFleming (R) UndecidedPublic Policy Polling February 8–12, 2013 603 ± 4% 50% 38% 12%

Poll source MaryLandrieu (D) ElbertGuillory (R) UndecidedHarper Polling August 14–15, 2013 596 ± 4.01% 44% 44% 11%Public Policy Polling August 16–19, 2013 721 ± 3.6% 50% 36% 14%

Poll source MaryLandrieu (D) PaulHollis (R) UndecidedPublic Policy Polling February 6–9, 2014 635 ± 3.9% 48% 42% 10%

Poll source MaryLandrieu (D) BobbyJindal (R) UndecidedPublic Policy Polling February 8–12, 2013 603 ± 4% 49% 41% 10%