2012 United States House of Representatives election in Montana

The 2012 congressional election in Montana was held on November 6, 2012, to determine who would represent the state of Montana in the United States House of Representatives. At the time, Montana had one seat in the House. Incumbent Denny Rehberg did not run for reelection, choosing instead to run unsuccessfully for the seat in the U.S. Senate. A primary election was held on June 5, 2012. Republican businessman Steve Daines won the open seat.

Republican primary Candidates Nominee Steve Daines, businessman and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2008

Eliminated in primary Eric Brosten, author and engineer Vincent Melkus, student at Colorado Mesa University and former Marine

Withdrawn John Abarr, white supremacist and Ku Klux Klan organizer.

Hypothetical polling Poll source Date(s)administered JohnAbarr SteveDaines Other UndecidedPublic Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling June 16–19, 2011 382 ± 5.0% 14% 22% — 64%

Results

Democratic primary Candidates Nominee Kim Gillan, state senator from Billings

Eliminated in primary Sam Rankin, real estate salesman and candidate for this seat in 2010 Diane Smith, businesswoman Dave Strohmaier, Missoula city council member Rob Stutz, attorney Jason Ward, farmer and construction manager for the Crow Nation Franke Wilmer, state representative from Bozeman

Declined Melinda Gopher, writer and candidate for this seat in 2010 Brian Schweitzer, Governor of Montana

Polling Poll source Date(s)administered KimGillan SamRankin DianeSmith DaveStrohmaier RobStutz JasonWard FrankeWilmer UndecidedPublic Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling April 26–29, 2012 332 ± 5.4% 21% 4% 13% 9% 1% 0% 11% 41%

Results

Libertarian primary Candidates Nominee David Kaiser

General election Endorsements

Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror SteveDaines (R) KimGillan (D) DavidKaiser (L) UndecidedPublic Policy Polling (D)Public Policy Polling (D) November 2–3, 2012 737 ± 3.6% 48% 44% 3% 4%Mason-DixonMason-Dixon October 29–31, 2012 625 ± 4.0% 51% 40% 1% 8%Pharos Research GroupPharos Research Group October 26–28, 2012 799 ± 4.9% 52% 45% – 4%Pharos Research GroupPharos Research Group October 19–21, 2012 400 ± 4.9% 47% 41% – 12%Public Policy Polling (D)Public Policy Polling (D) October 8–10, 2012 737 ± 3.6% 43% 34% 10% 12%MSU-BillingsMSU-Billings September 27–30, 2012 477 ± 4.6% 36% 23% 3% 38%Mellman (D-Montana JET PAC)Mellman (D-Montana JET PAC) September 23–26, 2012 600 ± 4.0% 36% 34% 5% 25%Mason-DixonMason-Dixon September 17–19, 2012 625 ± 4.0% 46% 38% 2% 14%Public Policy Polling (D)Public Policy Polling (D) September 10–11, 2012 656 ± 3.8% 40% 37% 9% 15%Public Policy Polling (D)Public Policy Polling (D) April 26–29, 2012 934 ± 3.2% 33% 27% — 40%Public Policy Polling (D)Public Policy Polling (D) June 16–19, 2011 819 ± 3.4% 35% 27% — 38%

Poll source Date(s)administered JohnAbarr (R) KimGillan (D) Other Undecided Public Policy Polling (report) June 16–19, 2011 819 ± 3.4% 30% 26% — 44%

Poll source Date(s)administered JohnAbarr (R) FrankeWilmer (D) Other Undecided Public Policy Polling (report) June 16–19, 2011 819 ± 3.4% 33% 25% — 42%

Poll source Date(s)administered SteveDaines (R) FrankeWilmer (D) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling April 26–29, 2012 934 ± 3.2% 36% 25% — 39%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling June 16–19, 2011 819 ± 3.4% 35% 25% — 40%

Predictions SourceRankingAs of The Cook Political Report November 5, 2012 Rothenberg November 2, 2012 Roll Call, November 4, 2012 Sabato's Crystal BallCrystal Ball , November 5, 2012 NY TimesHouse Race Ratings, The New York Times, November 4, 2012RCP, November 4, 2012The Hill November 4, 2012

Results

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic Missoula (Largest city: Missoula) Glacier (largest city: Cut Bank) Roosevelt (largest city: Wolf Point) Hill (largest city: Havre) Blaine (largest city: Chinooko)

References

External links Elections at the Montana Secretary of State United States House of Representatives elections in Montana, 2012 at Ballotpedia Montana U.S. House at OurCampaigns.com Campaign contributions for U.S. Congressional races in Montana at OpenSecrets Outside spending at the Sunlight Foundation Campaign websites Steve Daines campaign website Kim Gillan campaign website David Kaiser campaign website