Hurricane Keith was a powerful tropical cyclone that formed in September 2000, it caused extensive damage in Central America, especially in Mexico and Belize. It was the fifteenth tropical cyclone, eleventh named storm, and seventh hurricane of the 2000 Atlantic hurricane season. Keith developed as a tropical depression from a tropical wave in the western Caribbean Sea on September 28. The depression gradually strengthened, and became Tropical Storm Keith on the following day. As the storm tracked westward, it continued to intensify and was upgraded to a hurricane on September 30. Shortly thereafter, Keith began to rapidly deepen, and peaked as a Category 4 hurricane less than 24 hours later. Keith then began to meander erratically offshore of Belize, which significantly weakened the storm due to land interaction. By late on October 2, Keith made landfall in Ambergris Caye and Caye Caulker, Belize as a minimal hurricane. It quickly weakened to a tropical storm, before another landfall occurred near Belize City early on the following day. While moving inland over the Yucatán Peninsula, Keith weakened further, and was downgraded to a tropical depression before emerging into the Gulf of Mexico on October 4. Once in the Gulf of Mexico, Keith began to re-strengthen and was upgraded to a tropical storm later that day, and a hurricane on the following day. By late on October 5, Keith made its third and final landfall near Tampico, Tamaulipas, Mexico as a moderately strong Category 1 hurricane. The storm quickly weakened inland and dissipated as a tropical cyclone by 24 hours after landfall.

Keith brought heavy rainfall to several countries in Central America, which resulted in extensive flooding, especially in Belize and Mexico. In Guatemala, the storm flooded 10 towns, and caused one fatality. Similarly, one fatality also occurred in El Salvador, and at least 300 people were affected by flooding in that country. Thirteen communities in Nicaragua were completely isolated after Keith made roads impassable. Twelve deaths were reported in Nicaragua, all of which were flood-related. Five people were presumed dead in Honduras after an aircraft disappeared near Roatán; one other fatality occurred due to flooding. The storm brought torrential rainfall to Belize, with many areas reporting at least of rain, while highest reported amount of precipitation was greater than . In Belize, a village reported that only 12 houses remained, while elsewhere in the country, at least 60 homes were destroyed or damaged; several houses in Belize City suffered minor roof damage. At least 19 people were killed in Belize and damages totaled to $280 million (2000 USD). Heavy rainfall also occurred in Mexico, especially in the states of Nuevo León and Tamaulipas. Flooding from Keith caused several mudslides and a few rivers reached historic levels. Throughout Mexico, at least 460 houses were damaged or destroyed and other losses in infrastructure occurred. In addition, one person drowned due to heavy rainfall. Damages incurred in associated with Keith in Mexico totaled to approximately $365.9 million (2000 MXN, $38.7 million 2000 USD). Overall, Keith was responsible for 68 deaths and $319 million (2000 USD) in damage.

Meteorological history

On September 16, 2000, a tropical wave – an elongated area of low air pressure moving from east to west – exited the west coast of Africa. It moved westward across the Atlantic Ocean without development due to the presence of upper-level wind shear. After moving across the Caribbean Sea, a disturbance along the wave started to become better organized on September 27. The next day, a Hurricane Hunters flight indicated a closed circulation and winds of ; upon receiving the data, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) initiated advisories on Tropical Depression Fifteen at 2100 UTC. The NHC later estimated the depression had formed three hours earlier, about north-northeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios. Upon forming, the depression had good outflow, although the convection was not as organized. With an anticyclone over the system, the depression was expected to gradually intensify while moving slowly to the west-northwest, a motion caused by weak steering winds. Late on September 28, the NHC upgraded the depression to tropical storm status and named it Keith, after another Hurricane Hunters mission reported flight-level winds of .

By the time Keith became a tropical storm, it was beginning to undergo rapid deepening, fueled by warm waters, low wind shear, and an organizing cloud pattern. There initially was uncertainty in the storm's future movement, due to a ridge in the Gulf of Mexico. Tropical cyclone prediction models differed on their assessments; three models anticipated a turn to the northeast toward Florida due to a trough, while others predicted a continued slow motion to the west-northwest, eventually reaching the Bay of Campeche. After continued strengthening, Keith became a hurricane on September 30, just 18 hours after becoming a tropical storm, and making it the seventh such storm of that intensity of the season. That day, an eye began developing as the structure became much better organized. In a 13‑hour period beginning at 1808 UTC on September 30, Keith underwent explosive deepening, as its barometric pressure dropped at a rate of nearly per hour. The NHC noted that Keith experienced conditions "ideal for strengthening", with the exception of the approaching land interaction with the Yucatán Peninsula. The hurricane slowed until stalling offshore eastern Belize, caused by the ridge to the north and the precursor to Tropical Storm Leslie forming over Cuba. By early on October 1, Keith had developed a well-defined eye about in diameter, with what the NHC described as a "spectacular appearance." Later that day, Hurricane Hunters estimated a minimum pressure of and deployed a dropsonde that observed peak winds of . Based on the data, the NHC estimated that Keith attained peak winds of 140 mph (220 km/h) at 0700 UTC on October 1, while just offshore eastern Belize. This made it a Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale.

Shortly after Keith reached peak intensity, the eye had moved over portions of Belize, causing it to lose definition. Outflow became restricted, and the developing disturbance to the northeast increased wind shear. As a result, Keith began to weaken steadily on October 1. While remaining nearly stationary, Keith made a landfall on Ambergris Caye late on October 2 as a minimal hurricane. Shortly thereafter, Keith weakened into a tropical storm, and its convection became limited to the southeastern quadrant. At 0300 UTC, the storm made its second landfall about north of Belize City, and within nine hours weakened into a tropical depression. The building ridge to the north caused the system to accelerate more to the west-northwest across the Yucatán peninsula. Early on October 4, Keith emerged into the Bay of Campeche, where favorable conditions allowed convection to quickly redevelop. Later that day, it re-intensified into a tropical storm, with improved outflow and convective organization. On October 5, the Hurricane Hunters reported a circular eye had reformed along with winds supporting an upgrade to hurricane status. Keith intensified further that day, until it made its final landfall north of Tampico with winds of 90 mph (150 km/h). It rapidly weakened over the high terrain of northeastern Mexico, dissipating late on October 6.

Preparations On September 29, shortly after Keith formed, a hurricane watch was issued for the Yucatán Peninsula from Chetumal to Cabo Catoche in Quintana Roo. The next day as Keith was nearing hurricane intensity, the watch was upgraded to a warning, and a tropical storm warning and hurricane watch was issued for the Belize coastline from Belize City to the Mexican border. At that time, the trajectory was expected to go more to the northwest, and when the storm turned to a slow westward drift, hurricane warnings were issued for the Belize coast with only about 24 hours of lead time for the offshore islands. The warnings for the Yucatán peninsula were dropped as Keith weakened.

On October 2, the government of Belize declared a state of emergency and activated the entire Belize Defence Force due to the storm's threat. The airport in Belize City was closed during Keith's passage, limiting transportation from the country's mainland to its offshore islands. In Corozal, Belize, authorities evacuated the entire city of 10,000 people to numerous shelters in Orange Walk. Officials were also ordered evacuations for Belize City, setting up shelters in Belmopan. Overall, about 25,000 people evacuate, or about 10% of Belize's population. Three hospitals were evacuated in the country. In a post-storm assessment, residents on the offshore islands acknowledged they were unprepared for the storm and did not anticipate such intensity.

In Quintana Roo, 5,000 people from Chetumal and surrounding low-lying areas were forced to evacuate to 30 shelters. Offshore along a coral reef, about 50 fishermen stayed on a coral reef during the storm. In the Bay of Campeche, Pemex evacuated about 6,300 workers from its offshore oil platforms. Officials in Yucatán and Veracruz declared states of emergency. When Keith reached the Gulf of Mexico and began re-intensifying, a hurricane warning was issued from Tuxpan to Matamoros in northeastern Mexico, with a tropical storm watch issued northward to Port Mansfield, Texas. About 3,000 residents in Tamaulipas evacuated to 250 shelters, and in neighboring Veracruz, about 175 people left their houses before the storm struck. The threat of Hurricane Keith caused Mexican authorities to close most ports along the gulf coast, and many schools in the area were closed.

Impact +Deaths by region Region Totaldeaths Source Belize 19 El Salvador 1 Nicaragua 12 Honduras 6 Guatemala 1 Mexico 23 Totals: Because of differing sources, totals may not match. Keith's slow and erratic movement caused it to produce strong winds and heavy rainfall in Central America. Belize bore the brunt of the storm, with about $280 million in damage and 19 confirmed fatalities, primarily related to flooding. Several other countries reported significant but less severe flooding, including El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, and Nicaragua. Overall, Keith was responsible for 40 deaths, as well as approximately $319 million in damage.

Belize

While Keith was offshore from Belize, northerly winds blew water out of the Bay of Chetumal. There were reports of people walking onto the temporarily dry bay floor, despite the potential for the waters to return in the event of shifting winds. At Caye Caulker, the hurricane produced a storm surge from the west. Winds were unofficially estimated to have reached in the offshore islands of Belize. Wind gusts on the mainland reached at Philip S. W. Goldson International Airport. Due to its slow motion, Keith dropped heavy rainfall, amounting to over in many parts of the country. The highest recorded precipitation total was at the international airport in Belize City.