2016 United States Senate elections

The 2016 United States Senate elections were held on November 8, 2016. The presidential election, House elections, 14 gubernatorial elections, and many state and local elections were held concurrently. In the elections, 34 of the 100 seats—all Class 3 Senate seats—were contested in regular elections; the winners served six-year terms until January 3, 2023. Class 3 had last been up for election in 2010 when Republicans won a net gain of six seats.

In 2016, Democrats defended 10 seats, while Republicans defended 24 seats. Republicans, having won a majority of seats in the Senate in 2014, held the Senate majority with 54 seats before this election. Although the Democrats made a net gain of two seats, Republicans retained control of the Senate for the 115th United States Congress. The two Democratic gains came from the defeats of incumbents Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire and Mark Kirk in Illinois by Maggie Hassan and Tammy Duckworth, respectively.

Despite Republicans retaining control of the Senate, 2016 marked the first time since 1986 where Democrats made a net gain of seats in Class 3. This is also the only election cycle since the popular-vote election of senators was mandated by the 17th Amendment in 1913 that the winning party in every Senate election mirrored the winning party for their state in the presidential election.There Were No Purple* States On Tuesday. FiveThirtyEight. November 10, 2016. This feat had nearly been accomplished earlier in 1920, which also involved the Class 3 Senate seats, and nearly repeated in 2020; in both cases, every state, with the exception of Kentucky in 1920 and Maine in 2020, voted for the same party in the presidential election and their Senate election. In addition, this election marked the first time since 2000 in which the party in opposition to the elected or reelected presidential candidate made net gains in the Senate; both cases involved the election of a Republican president and the Democrats making gains in the Senate.

With the retirement of Harry Reid, Chuck Schumer became the Democratic leader after the elections, while Mitch McConnell retained his position as Senate Majority Leader. As of 2024, this is the last time Republicans won Senate races in Arizona and Georgia, and the last senate election cycle where there were no special elections.

Results summary All 34 Class 3 senators were up for election in 2016; Class 3 consisted of 10 Democrats and 24 Republicans. Of the senators not up for election, 34 of the senators not up for election were Democrats, 30 senators were Republicans, and two senators were independents who caucused with the Senate Democrats. + ↓ 44 2 54 Democratic Independent Republican PartiesTotal Democratic Republican Independent Libertarian GreenOther Before these elections 44 54 2 — — — 100 Not up 34 30 2 — — — 66 23 8 2 —— — 33 11 22 0 — — — 33 Up 10 24 0 — — — 34 10 24 0 — — — 34 0 0 0 — — — 0 General election Incumbent retired 3 2 — — — — 5 3 2 — — — — 5 0 0 — — — — 0 3 2 — — — — 5 Incumbent ran 7 22 — — — — 29 7 20 — — — — 27 2 Republicans replaced by 2 Democrats — — — — 2 0 0 — — — —0 920————29 Total elected 12 22 — — — — 34 Net gain/loss 2 2 2 Nationwide vote51,315,96940,841,717626,7631,788,112695,8381,598,11096,866,509 Share52.98%42.16%0.65%1.85%0.72%1.65% 100% Result 46 52 2———100

Source: Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives

Change in composition Before the elections D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D I I R R R R Majority → R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R

After the elections D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D I I R R Majority → R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R

Key: D Democratic R Republican I Independent, caucusing with Democrats

Final pre-election predictions Several sites and individuals publish predictions of competitive seats. These predictions look at factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for reelection) and the other candidates, and the state's partisan lean (reflected in part by the state's Cook Partisan Voting Index rating). The predictions assign ratings to each seat, indicating the predicted advantage that a party has in winning that seat.

Most election predictors used: "tossup": no advantage "tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean" "lean": slight advantage "likely" or "favored": significant, but surmountable, advantage "safe" or "solid": near-certain chance of victory

Where a site gives a percentage probability as its primary indicator of expected outcome, the chart below classifies a race as follows: Tossup: 50-55% Tilt: 56-60% Lean: 61-75% Likely: 76-93% Safe: 94-100%

The New York Timess Upshot gave the Democrats a 60% chance of winning the Senate on August 24, 2016; on September 23, their model gave Republicans a 58% chance to maintain control.

Constituency Incumbent 2016 election ratings State PVI Senator Lastelection Cook Sabato Roth. Daily Kos RCP 538 NYT TPM Result Alabama 63.4% R Shelby64.0% R Alaska 39.5% R

| Murkowski44.4% R Arizona 59.2% R

| McCain53.7% R Arkansas 57.9% R Boozman59.7% R California 52.2% D Harris61.8% D Colorado 47.7% D

| Bennet50.0% D Connecticut 55.2% D Blumenthal63.2% D Florida 48.9% R

| Rubio52.0% R Georgia 58.1% R

| Isakson54.8% R Hawaii 69.8% D Schatz73.6% D Idaho 71.2% R Crapo66.1% R Illinois 48.2% R

| Duckworth54.9% D Indiana 56.4% R

| Young52.1% R Iowa 64.5% R

| Grassley60.1% R Kansas 70.0% R Moran62.2% R Kentucky 55.7% R

| Paul57.3% R Louisiana 56.6% R

| Kennedy60.6% R Maryland 62.2% D Van Hollen60.9% D Missouri 54.3% R

| Blunt49.2% R Nevada 50.2% D

| Cortez Masto47.1% D New Hampshire 60.2% R

| Hassan48.0% D New York 66.3% D Schumer70.4% D North Carolina 55.0% R

| Burr51.1% R North Dakota 76.1% R Hoeven78.4% R Oklahoma 67.9% R Lankford67.7% R Ohio 57.3% R

| Portman58.0% R Oregon 57.2% D Wyden56.1% D Pennsylvania 51.0% R

| Toomey48.8% R South Carolina 61.1% R Scott60.5% R South Dakota 100.0% R Thune71.8% R Utah 61.6% R Lee68.1% R Vermont 64.4% D Leahy61.3% D Washington 52.4% D Murray59.0% Wisconsin | data-sort-value="51.9" | 51.9% R

Primary dates This table shows the primary dates for regularly scheduled elections. It also shows the type of primary. "Open" primary: any registered voter can vote in any party's primary "Closed" primary, only voters registered with a specific party can vote in that party's primary. "Top-two" primary, all candidates run against each other regardless of party affiliation, and the top two candidates advance to the second round of voting. (In Louisiana, a candidate can win the election by winning a majority of the vote in the first round.) All of the various other primary types are classified as "hybrid." Alaska in 2008 provides one example of a hybrid primary: The Democratic Party allowed unaffiliated voters to vote in its primary, while the Republican Party only allowed party members to vote in its primary.

State Date Type Alabama Mar. 1 Open Arkansas Mar. 1 Open Illinois Mar 15 Hybrid North Carolina Mar 15 Hybrid Ohio Mar 15 Hybrid Maryland April 26 Hybrid Pennsylvania April 26 Closed Indiana May 3 Open Idaho May 17 Hybrid Kentucky May 17 Closed Oregon May 17 Hybrid Georgia May 24 Open California June 7 Top-two Iowa June 7 Hybrid South Dakota June 7 Hybrid Nevada June 14 Closed North Dakota June 14 Open South Carolina June 14 Hybrid Colorado June 28 Hybrid New York June 28 Closed Oklahoma June 28 Hybrid Utah June 28 Hybrid Kansas Aug 2 Closed Missouri Aug 2 Open Washington Aug 2 Top-two Connecticut Aug 9 Hybrid Vermont Aug 9 Open Wisconsin Aug 9 Open Hawaii Aug 13 Open Alaska Aug 16 Hybrid Arizona Aug 30 Hybrid Florida Aug 30 Closed New Hampshire Sep 13 Hybrid Louisiana Nov 8 Top-two

Indicates a state that requires primary run-off elections under certain conditions.

Gains, losses and holds Retirements

Three Democrats and two Republicans retired instead of seeking re-election.

StateSenator Age at end of term AssumedofficeReplaced by California 76 1993 Indiana 73 2011 Louisiana 55 2005 Maryland 80 1987 Nevada 77 1987

Defeats Two Republicans sought re-election but lost in the general election.

StateSenatorAge atend of termAssumedofficeReplaced by Illinois 57 2010 New Hampshire 48 2011

Post-election changes One Republican resigned shortly after the start of the 115th Congress, and another Republican resigned during the 115th Congress for health reasons. Initially, all were replaced by Republican appointees. One Republican died during the 115th Congress and was replaced by a Republican appointee. One Democrat resigned during the 115th Congress and was replaced by a Democratic appointee. In Alabama, a 2017 special election was held prior to the 2020 Senate elections for the remainder of the Class 2 term, where Democrat Doug Jones won the special election to succeed Republican appointee Luther Strange, who lost nomination to finish the term. In addition, one Republican died during the 115th Congress and was replaced by a former Senator who was appointed at that Congress.

StateSenatorReplaced by Alabama(Class 2) Alabama(Class 2) Minnesota(Class 2) Mississippi(Class 2) Arizona(Class 3)

Race summary Elections leading to the next Congress In these general elections, the winners were elected for the term beginning January 3, 2017; ordered by state.

All of the elections involved the Class 3 seats.

State Incumbent Result Candidates Senator Party Electoral history Alabama 19861992199820042010 Incumbent re-elected. Alaska 20042010 Incumbent re-elected. Arizona 19861992199820042010 Incumbent re-elected. Arkansas 2010 Incumbent re-elected. California 1992199820042010 Incumbent retired.Democratic hold. Colorado 2010 Incumbent re-elected. Connecticut 2010 Incumbent re-elected. Florida 2010 Incumbent re-elected. Georgia 20042010 Incumbent re-elected. Hawaii 2014 Incumbent re-elected. Idaho 199820042010 Incumbent re-elected. Illinois 2010 2010 Incumbent lost re-election.Democratic gain. Indiana 1989 1990 19921998 2010 Incumbent retired.Republican hold. Iowa 198019861992199820042010 Incumbent re-elected. Kansas 2010 Incumbent re-elected. Kentucky 2010 Incumbent re-elected. Louisiana 20042010Incumbent retired.Republican hold. Maryland 19861992199820042010 Incumbent retired.Democratic hold. Missouri 2010 Incumbent re-elected. Nevada 19861992199820042010 Incumbent retired.Democratic hold. New Hampshire 2010 Incumbent lost re-election.Democratic gain. New York 199820042010 Incumbent re-elected. North Carolina 20042010 Incumbent re-elected. North Dakota 2010 Incumbent re-elected. Ohio 2010 Incumbent re-elected. Oklahoma 2014 Incumbent re-elected. Oregon 1996 199820042010 Incumbent re-elected. Pennsylvania 2010 Incumbent re-elected. South Carolina 2014 Incumbent re-elected. South Dakota 20042010 Incumbent re-elected. Utah 2010 Incumbent re-elected. Vermont 1974198019861992199820042010 Incumbent re-elected. Washington 1992199820042010 Incumbent re-elected. Wisconsin 2010 Incumbent re-elected.

Closest races Nine races had a margin of victory under 10%: State Party of winner Margin New Hampshire Democratic (flip) 0.14% Pennsylvania Republican 1.43% Nevada Democratic 2.43% Missouri Republican 2.79% Wisconsin Republican 3.36% Colorado Democratic 5.66% North Carolina Republican 5.70% Florida Republican 7.67% Indiana Republican 9.70%

Alabama

2016 United States Senate elections

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