The 2012 United States Senate election in Wisconsin took place on November 6, 2012, alongside a U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic Senator Herb Kohl retired instead of running for re-election to a fifth term. This was the first open Senate seat in Wisconsin since 1988, when Kohl won his first term.

Primary elections were held on August 14, 2012. Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin's 2nd congressional district ran unopposed in the Democratic primary. The Republican nominee was former Wisconsin Governor and U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Tommy Thompson, who won with a plurality in a four-way primary race. In the general election, Baldwin defeated Thompson and won the open seat. She became the first woman elected to represent Wisconsin in the Senate and the first openly gay U.S. senator in history. This is also the only time Thompson lost a statewide race. Baldwin and Thompson each won half of the counties in the state, an unusual result.

Background Incumbent Democratic Senator Herb Kohl was re-elected to a fourth term in 2006, beating Republican attorney Robert Lorge by 67% to 30%. Kohl's lack of fundraising suggested his potential retirement. There was speculation that Kohl might decide to retire to allow Russ Feingold, who lost his re-election bid in 2010, to run again, although Mike Tate, chairman of the Wisconsin Democratic Party, dismissed speculation about Kohl's potential retirement. Kohl announced in May 2011 that he would not run for re-election in 2012.

Democratic primary Despite speculation that Kohl would retire to make way for his former Senate colleague Russ Feingold, who had been unseated in 2010, Feingold chose not to enter the race. Other potential candidates also declined to run, leaving Baldwin unopposed in the Democratic primary.

Candidates

Declared Tammy Baldwin, U.S. representative

Declined Tom Barrett, mayor of Milwaukee Kathleen Falk, former Dane County executive (1997–2011) Russ Feingold, former U.S. senator Steve Kagen, former U.S. representative for Wisconsin's 8th congressional district (2006–2011) Ron Kind, U.S. representative for Wisconsin's 3rd congressional district Herb Kohl, incumbent U.S. senator Gwen Moore, U.S. representative for Wisconsin's 4th congressional district Tim Sullivan, businessman

Polling

Poll source TammyBaldwin JonErpenbach RussFeingold KathleenFalk SteveKagen RonKind BarbaraLawton GwenMoore Other/UndecidedPublic Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling May 19–22, 2011 783 ±3.5% 12% 5% 70% 1% 3% 4% 1% 2% 3% 30% 13% — 4% 17% 16% 3% 6% 12%Magellan StrategiesMagellan Strategies July 12–13, 2011 627 ±3.9% 46% — — — 21% — — — 33% 41% — — — — 19% — — 40%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling August 12–14, 2011 387 ±5% 48% — — — 19% — — — 33% 37% — — — 15% 21% — — 27%

Results

Republican primary Congressman and House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan stated he would not run if Kohl sought reelection, but would contemplate a run if Kohl retired. Ryan later stated that he was "95 percent sure" that he would not run. He was later chosen as the Republican nominee for vice president by presidential nominee Mitt Romney.

Six candidates declared for the seat, although two later withdrew. The contest turned out to be a four-way fight. Although a large majority of Republican primary voters consistently expressed a preference for a nominee "more conservative" than Tommy Thompson, Eric Hovde and Mark Neumann split the conservative vote, allowing Thompson to narrowly prevail with a plurality of the vote.

Candidates

Declared Jeff Fitzgerald, speaker of the Wisconsin State Assembly Eric Hovde, businessman Mark Neumann, former U.S. representative, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 1998, and candidate for governor in 2010Republican Neumann announces Senate run WBAY-TV. August 29, 2011. Retrieved August 29, 2011Kyle Trygstad. (August 29, 2011)Ex-Rep. Mark Neumann Enters Wisconsin Senate Race Roll Call. Retrieved August 29, 2011 Tommy Thompson, former governor of Wisconsin and former secretary of Health and Human Services

Withdrew Frank Lasee, state senator (endorsed Eric Hovde) Kip Smith, physical therapist

Declined Mark Andrew Green, former U.S. representative and former United States ambassador to Tanzania Theodore Kanavas, former state senator Paul Ryan, U.S. representative Tim Sullivan, businessman J. B. Van Hollen, Wisconsin attorney general

Polling Poll source Date(s) administered Samplesize error JeffFitzgerald EricHovde MarkNeumann TommyThompson UndecidedPublic Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling August 8–9, 2012 557 ± 4.2% 15% 27% 24% 25% 9%Marquette UniversityMarquette University August 2–5, 2012 519 ± 4.4% 13% 20% 18% 28% 7%We Ask AmericaWe Ask America July 31, 2012 1,237 ± 2.8% 12% 23% 17% 23% 25%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling July 30–31, 2012 400 ± 4.9% 13% 28% 25% 25% 9% — 33% 27% 30% 10%Marquette UniversityMarquette University July 5–8, 2012 432 ± 4.8% 6% 23% 10% 35% 25%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling July 5–8, 2012 564 ± 4.1% 9% 31% 15% 29% 16%OnMessage Inc.OnMessage Inc. June 26–27, 2012 600 ± 4.0% 7% 29% 16% 34% 14%Marquette UniversityMarquette University June 13–16, 2012 344 ± 5.4% 10% 14% 16% 34% 25%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling March 31–April 1, 2012 609 ± 4.0% 18% — 25% 38% 19%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling February 23–26, 2012 556 ± 4.2% 22% — 22% 39% 17% 32% — 42% — 26% 37% — — 46% 17% — — 36% 46% 18%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling October 20–23, 2011 650 ± 3.8% 21% — 29% 35% 11% — — 39% 43% 17% 28% — 44% — 28% 35% — — 47% 17%Public Policy Polling August 12–14, 2011 362 ± 5.2% — — 39% 47% 13%Magellan StrategiesMagellan Strategies July 12–13, 2011 638 ± 3.9% 15% — 26% 41% 18% — — 36% 44% 20%

Commissioned by Eric Hovde

Poll source Date(s) administered Samplesize error TommyThompson conservative UndecidedPublic Policy Polling July 30–31, 2012 400 ± 4.9% 29% 58% 13%Public Policy Polling July 5–8, 2012 564 ± 4.1% 34% 50% 17%Public Policy Polling February 23–26, 2012 556 ± 4.2% 37% 47% 17%Public Policy Polling October 20–23, 2011 650 ± 3.8% 35% 51% 14%

Endorsements

Results

General election

Candidates Nimrod Allen III (independent), consultant and former Marine Tammy Baldwin (Democratic), U.S. representative Joseph Kexel (Libertarian), IT consultant Tommy Thompson (Republican), former governor and former secretary of Health and Human Services

Debates Baldwin and Thompson agreed to three debates: September 28, October 18 and 26, all broadcast statewide, and nationwide through C-SPAN.

The first debate originated from the studios of Milwaukee Public Television and was coordinated by the Wisconsin Broadcasters Association. It aired on MPTV, Wisconsin Public Television, Wisconsin Public Radio and several commercial stations throughout the state.

The second debate originated from the Theater for Civic Engagement on the campus of the University of Wisconsin–Marathon County in Wausau and was coordinated by WPT/WPR, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and Milwaukee's WTMJ-TV. Again it was carried on MPTV, WPT/WPR, and several commercial stations, including WTMJ-TV.

The third debate originated from Eckstein Hall on the campus of Marquette University Law School and was coordinated by WISN-TV in Milwaukee. It aired on that station and across the state's other ABC affiliated stations.

External links Complete video of debate, September 28, 2012 - C-SPAN Complete video of debate, October 18, 2012 - C-SPAN Complete video of debate, October 26, 2012 - C-SPAN

Fundraising Candidate (party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt Tammy Baldwin (D) $14,643,869 $15,204,940 $143,852 $0 Tommy Thompson (R) $9,585,823 $9,582,888 $2,934 $0 Source: Federal Election Commission

Top contributors Tammy Baldwin Contribution Tommy Thompson Contribution EMILY's List $431,843 Michael Best & Friedrich LLP $36,825 MoveOn.org $171,467 ABC Supply $28,500 University of Wisconsin $117,600 Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld $28,250 J Street PAC $113,758 Direct Supply $27,500 League of Conservation Voters $95,308 Wisconsin Energy Corporation $25,750 Democracy Engine $81,330 American Foods Group $25,000 Council for a Livable World $54,130 Gilead Sciences $23,000 Voices for Progress $25,749 Centene Corporation $20,750 Marshfield Clinic $21,800 BGR Group $20,500 Microsoft Corporation $18,564 C. R. Bard, Inc. $20,000 Source: OpenSecrets

Top industries Tammy Baldwin Contribution Tommy Thompson Contribution Women's issues $915,482 Retired $858,276 Retired $791,756 Leadership PACs $244,804 Lawyers/law firms $597,674 Financial institutions $243,636 Democratic/Liberal $555,792 Lawyers/law firms $228,379 Leadership PACs $309,430 Real estate $227,687 Universities $298,298 Pharmaceuticals/health products $204,302 Human rights organizations $215,539 Insurance industry $202,654 Health professionals $202,654 Manufacturing & distributing $169,104 Pro-Israel $172,380 Health professionals $150,149 Business services $163,238 Lobbyists $138,700 Source: OpenSecrets

Predictions Source Ranking As of The Cook Political Report November 1, 2012 Sabato's Crystal Ball November 5, 2012 Rothenberg Political Report November 2, 2012 Real Clear Politics November 5, 2012

Polling