The following is a Mackerras pendulum for the New South Wales state election 2007.
"Safe" seats require a swing of over 10 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 points, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 points.
Legislative Assembly Changes in the pendulum since the 2007 election resulted through by-elections in the Labor held seats of Ryde in 2008 and Penrith in 2010. Both seats were won by the Liberal opposition in record swings against the Labor Government of 25 points in Penrith and 23 points in Ryde.
Pendulum
Labor seatsMarginalMirandaBarry CollierALP0.8 pointsNewcastleJodi McKayALP v IND1.2 pointsMaitlandFrank TerenziniALP v IND2.0 pointsMenaiAlison MegarrityALP2.7 pointsWollondillyPhil CostaALP3.3 pointsBalmainVerity FirthALP v GRN3.8 pointsCamdenGeoff CorriganALP4.0 pointsGosfordMarie AndrewsALP4.9 pointsThe EntranceGrant McBrideALP4.9 pointsFairly safeMonaroSteve WhanALP 6.3 pointsLondonderryAllan ShearanALP6.9 pointsWyongDavid HarrisALP6.9 pointsCharlestownMatthew MorrisALP v IND7.0 pointsCoogeePaul PearceALP7.2 pointsMarrickvilleCarmel TebbuttALP v GRN7.5 pointsDrummoyneAngela D'AmoreALP7.6 pointsHeathcotePaul McLeayALP8.8 pointsSafeRiverstoneJohn AquilinaALP10.1 pointsRockdaleFrank SartorALP10.3 pointsSwanseaRobert CoombsALP10.8 pointsBlue MountainsPhil KoperbergALP11.1 pointsGranvilleDavid BorgerALP11.1 pointsMacquarie FieldsAndrew McDonaldALP11.1 pointsMulgoaDiane BeamerALP11.1 pointsKiamaMatt BrownALP12.0 pointsCessnockKerry HickeyALP 12.4 pointsBathurstGerard MartinALP 13.0 pointsParramattaTanya GadielALP13.7 pointsEast HillsAlan AshtonALP14.1 pointsOatleyKevin GreeneALP14.4 pointsToongabbieNathan ReesALP14.5 pointsStrathfieldVirginia JudgeALP15.1 pointsSmithfieldNinos KhoshabaALP15.5 pointsWallsendSonia HorneryALP15.8 pointsMaroubraMichael DaleyALP16.1 pointsKogarahCherie BurtonALP17.7 pointsCampbelltownGraham WestALP18.6 pointsVery safeFairfieldJoe TripodiALP20.4 pointsShellharbourLylea McMahonALP v IND21.6 points KeiraDavid CampbellALP22.0 pointsBlacktownPaul GibsonALP22.3 pointsHeffronKristina KeneallyALP23.7 pointsWollongongNoreen HayALP25.3 pointsMount DruittRichard AmeryALP25.4 pointsBankstownTony StewartALP25.6 pointsLiverpoolPaul LynchALP26.9 pointsCanterburyLinda BurneyALP27.1 pointsAuburnBarbara PerryALP28.8 pointsCabramattaReba MeagherALP29.0 points LakembaMorris IemmaALP34.0 points Liberal/National seatsMarginalPort StephensCraig BaumannLIB0.1 pointsGoulburnPru GowardLIB v IND1.3 pointsTweedGeoff ProvestNAT3.0 pointsManlyMike BairdLIB v IND3.4 pointsBegaAndrew ConstanceLIB5.1 pointsFairly safeHawkesburyRay WilliamsLIB v IND6.0 pointsBarwonKevin HumphriesNAT v IND6.2 pointsSouth CoastShelley HancockLIB7.8 pointsEppingGreg SmithLIB8.0 pointsTerrigalChris HartcherLIB8.4 pointsPittwaterRob StokesLIB v IND9.4 pointsSafeMurray-DarlingJohn WilliamsNAT10.1 pointsBaulkham HillsWayne MertonLIB10.3 pointsLismoreThomas GeorgeNAT10.5 pointsClarenceSteve CansdellNAT11.6 pointsOrangeRussell TurnerNAT V IND11.7 pointsLane CoveAnthony RobertsLIB12.4 pointsRydeVictor DominelloLIB13.0 pointsWagga WaggaDaryl MaguireLIB13.0 pointsBallinaDon PageNAT14.5 pointsWilloughbyGladys BerejiklianLIB v IND14.5 pointsUpper HunterGeorge SourisNAT14.7 pointsNorth ShoreJillian SkinnerLIB v GRN15.8 pointsOxleyAndrew StonerNAT15.9 pointsMurrumbidgeeAdrian PiccoliNAT16.1 pointsVauclusePeter DebnamLIB v GRN16.1 points PenrithStuart Ayres LIB16.48 points HornsbyJudy HopwoodLIB16.5 pointsWakehurstBrad HazzardLIB17.3 pointsMyall LakesJohn TurnerNAT17.4 pointsCronullaMalcolm KerrLIB17.5 pointsBurrinjuckKatrina HodgkinsonNAT17.6 pointsCoffs HarbourAndrew FraserNAT17.6 pointsAlburyGreg AplinLIB19.0 pointsCastle HillMichael RichardsonLIB19.1 pointsVery safeDavidsonJonathan O'DeaLIB24.7 pointsKu-ring-gaiBarry O'FarrellLIB29.0 pointsIndependent seatsLake MacquarieGreg PiperIND v ALP0.1 pointsDubboDawn FardellIND v NAT0.9 points Port MacquariePeter BesselingIND v NAT4.5 pointsTamworthPeter DraperIND v NAT4.8 points SydneyClover MooreIND v ALP16.6 pointsNorthern TablelandsRichard TorbayIND v NAT30.2 points
Legislative Council
Labor MLC Michael Costa resigned on 22 September 2008. Unions NSW secretary John Robertson was nominated by Labor as his successor, and was formally appointed at a joint sitting of parliament on 28 October.
Gordon Moyes was appointed in 2002 as a member of the Christian Democratic Party to fill the casual vacancy caused by Elaine Nile's resignation from the Legislative Council. He was elected in 2003. Having been expelled from the party in March 2009, he sat as an independent until November 2009 when he joined the Family First Party.
Labor MLC Henry Tsang resigned effective 3 December 2009. Former Mayor of the City of Rockdale Shaoquett Moselmane was nominated by Labor as his successor, and was formally appointed at a joint sitting of parliament on 3 December.
On 7 June 2010, Labor Minister Ian Macdonald resigned from the Legislative Council after resigning from the ministry when it was discovered that he had mis-used taxpayer funds to fund a private holiday in Europe. In total, 12 of the 22 Ministers sworn in after the last State election have resigned or been replaced to date. Assistant general secretary of the NSW branch of the ALP Luke Foley was nominated by Labor as his successor, and was formally appointed at a joint sitting of parliament on 10 June 2010.
Greens MLC Lee Rhiannon resigned on 19 July 2010 to contest a seat for the Federal Senate at the 2010 election. The death of Shooters and Fishers Party MLC Roy Smith on 30 July 2010 and the resignations of Labor MLC John Della Bosca on 30 July and Greens MLC Sylvia Hale on 6 September left four vacancies, which were filled by Cate Faehrmann, Robert Borsak, Sophie Cotsis and David Shoebridge respectively on 7 September 2010.
Current balance
Party Seats held Current Council 2007 Now Labor Party 19 19 Liberal Party 10 10 National Party 5 5 The Greens 4 4 Shooters and Fishers Party 2 2 Christian Democratic Party 2 1 Family First Party 0 1
References