The 2012 United States Senate election in Montana was held on November 6, 2012, alongside a presidential election, other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Tester successfully ran for reelection to a second term, gaining 48.6% of the vote against Republican U.S. Representative Denny Rehberg, who received 44.9% of the vote, and Libertarian candidate Dan Cox, who received 6.56% of the vote.

Democratic primary

Candidate Jon Tester, incumbent U.S. senator

Republican primary

Candidates Denny Rehberg, U.S. representative, former lieutenant governor, former state representative and nominee in 1996 Dennis Teske, farmer

Withdrew Steve Daines, businessman and 2008 Republican nominee for lieutenant governor of Montana (ran for the U.S. House of Representatives)

Endorsements

Results The Republican primary was held on June 5, 2012.

General election

Candidates Dan Cox (Libertarian), retired businessman Denny Rehberg (Republican), U.S. representative, former lieutenant governor and former state representative Jon Tester (Democratic), incumbent U.S. senator and former state senator

Debates Three debates were scheduled, including one with the Libertarian candidate whose ultimate influence on the race remains uncertain. The first, between Rehberg and Tester, was held on October 8, 2012, at 7 p.m. at Petro Theatre at the MSU Billings University campus. The debate was televised live by Montana PBS andbroadcast on KEMC/Yellowstone Public Radio and streamed on the Gazettes website. It was moderated by Steve Prosinski, editor of The Gazette, with questions from a panel of political reporters. Representatives from the Associated Students of Montana State University Billings, the student government, served as timekeepers.

Complete video of debate, October 8, 2012. Complete video of debate, October 20, 2012

Campaign Former president of the Montana Senate and farmer Jon Tester was elected with 49.2% of the vote in 2006, defeating incumbent Conrad Burns.

As of June 30, 2011, Jon Tester had saved $2.34 million in campaign funds. Tester has been accused by Republican Denny Rehberg's senate campaign of depending on financial contributions from Wall Street banking executives and movie stars.

On February 5, 2011, U.S. Representative Denny Rehberg announced his intention to run for the U.S. Senate. Steve Daines had announced he would seek the Republican nomination on November 13, 2010, but just before Rehberg's announcement he dropped out of the primary and announced he would instead seek the Republican nomination for Montana's at-large congressional district in 2012. Daines later won Montana’s other U.S. Senate seat in 2014.

As of early July 2010, Denny Rehberg had saved $1.5 million of an original $2 million in campaign funds. Rehberg accused Democrat Jon Tester's senate campaign of depending on financial contributions from Wall Street banking executives and Hollywood while Rehberg's campaign relies primarily on in state donations. Tester's campaign countered that Rehberg has been funded by petroleum special interests and Wall Street.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee aired an attack ad against Jon Tester that mistakenly included a digitally manipulated photo of Tester (who has only two fingers on his left hand) with full sets of fingers. Another ad against Tester, from the Karl Rove group Crossroads GPS, falsely asserted that Tester had voted in favor of Environmental Protection Agency regulation of farm dust. In fact, Tester had praised the EPA for not attempting such a regulation. The vote cited in the anti-Tester ad concerned currency exchange rates.

In early October 2012, Crossroads GPS announced it would launch a $16 million advertising buy in national races, of which four were this and three other Senate elections.

Candidate (party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt Jon Tester (D) $11,699,935 $10,377,126 $1,334,858 $0 Denny Rehberg (R) $8,420,655 $7,249,285 $1,171,369 $0 Source: Federal Election CommissionTester Campaign FinancesRehberg Campaign Finances

Top contributors Although organizations are listed here, it is illegal for corporations to contribute to federal campaigns. Only political action committees (PACs) and individuals may contribute to federal candidates and in limited amounts. These lists actually indicate aggregate contributions from the organizations' PACs, their individual members or employees or owners, and those individuals' immediate families.OpenSecrets.org web site states "The organizations themselves did not donate, rather the money came from the organizations' PACs, their individual members or employees or owners, and those individuals' immediate families."[http://www.opensecrets.org/races/contrib.php?cycle=2012&id=MTS1 OpenSecrets Jon Tester Contribution Denny Rehberg Contribution League of Conservation Voters $82,332 Alliance Resource Partners $36,500 Visa $47,400 ExxonMobil $29,500 JPMorgan Chase $47,000 Las Vegas Sands $25,000 Thornton & Naumes $46,600 Mewbourne Oil Co $25,000 WPP $38,350 Murray Energy $24,068 Blackstone $34,000 Devon Energy $20,400 Girardi & Keese $30,000 Arch Coal $19,000 Pederson Group $29,500 Yellowstone Bank $17,500 Comcast $28,500 Marathon Oil $13,750 First Interstate BancSystem $28,400 Koch Industries $13,500

Top industries finances by industry Jon Tester Contribution Denny Rehberg Contribution Lawyers/law firms $1,084,445 Oil & gas $327,969 Retired $534,716 Financial institutions $277,474 Lobbyists $506,931 Retired $268,693 Financial institutions $438,763 Leadership PACs $267,000 Leadership PACs $345,750 Mining $169,318 Commercial banks $299,818 Lobbyists $150,050 Real estate $280,945 Real estate $121,080 Insurance $211,009 Misc. finance $94,655 Misc. finance $188,750 Lawyers/law firms $89,338 Health professionals $181,483 Republican/Conservative $76,855

Predictions Source Ranking As of The Cook Political Report November 1, 2012 Sabato's Crystal Ball November 5, 2012 Rothenberg Political Report November 2, 2012 Real Clear Politics November 5, 2012

Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror JonTester (D) DennyRehberg (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling November 10–13, 2010 1,176 ±2.9% 46% 48% — 6%Mason-DixonMason-Dixon March 14–16, 2011 625 ±4.0% 46% 45% — 9%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling June 16–19, 2011 819 ±3.4% 45% 47% — 8%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling November 28–30, 2011 1,625 ±2.4% 45% 47% 4% 5%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports February 22, 2012 500 ±4.5% 44% 47% 6% 3%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports April 2, 2012 500 ±4.5% 44% 47% — 9%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling April 26–29, 2012 934 ±3.2% 48% 43% 9% —Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports May 2, 2012 450 ±5.0% 43% 53% 2% 2%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports June 18, 2012 450 ±5.0% 47% 49% 2% 2%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports August 20, 2012 500 ±4.5% 43% 47% 5% 5%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling September 10–11, 2012 656 ±3.8% 45% 43% 8% 3%Mason-DixonMason-Dixon September 17–19, 2012 625 ±4.0% 45% 48% 1% 6%MSUMSU October 9, 2012 477 ±4.6% 40% 43% 5% 12%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling October 8–10, 2012 737 ±3.6% 45% 43% 8% 4%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports October 14, 2012 500 ±4.5% 48% 48% 3% 2%Public Policy Polling/LCVPublic Policy Polling/LCV October 15–16, 2012 806 ±3.5% 46% 44% 7% 3%Pharos ResearchPharos Research October 19–21, 2012 828 ±3.4% 48% 46% — 5%Pharos ResearchPharos Research October 26–28, 2012 799 ±3.5% 48% 47% — 5%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports October 29, 2012 500 ±4.5% 49% 48% 2% 2%Mason-Dixon/Gazette State BureauMason-Dixon/Gazette State Bureau October 29–31, 2012 625 4.0% 45% 49% 1% 5%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling November 2–3, 2012 836 3.4% 48% 46% 4% 2%

Poll source JonTester (D) SteveDaines (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling November 10–13, 2010 1,176 ±2.9% 48% 37% — 14%

Poll source JonTester (D) NeilLivingstone (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling November 10–13, 2010 1,176 ±2.9% 46% 35% — 19%

Poll source JonTester (D) MarcRacicot (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling November 10–13, 2010 1,176 ±2.9% 42% 49% — 9%

Results Tester won re-election to a second term, albeit by a narrow margin. He received about 4% more of the vote than Republican Rehberg, but the difference in Tester and Rehberg's vote totals was less than the vote total of Libertarian Dan Cox, who received 6.6% of the vote.

By county County Tester Votes Rehberg Votes Cox Votes Total Beaverhead 31.84% 1,532 59.77% 2,876 8.4% 404 4,812 Big Horn 67.39% 3,141 28.08% 1,309 4.53% 211 4,661 Blaine 63.88% 1,834 31.24% 897 4.88% 140 2,871 Broadwater 33.01% 995 57.47% 1,732 9.52% 287 3,014 Carbon 45.9% 2,691 47.55% 2,788 6.55% 384 5,863 Carter 15.74% 125 77.58% 616 6.68% 53 794 Cascade 52.47% 18,246 41.96% 14,589 5.57% 1,936 34,771 Chouteau 48.19% 1,374 46.33% 1,321 5.47% 156 2,851 Custer 43.21% 2,283 49.31% 2,661 8.38% 452 5,396 Daniels 32.6% 327 60.52% 607 6.88% 69 1,003 Dawson 35.46% 1,571 56.52% 2,504 8.01% 355 4,430 Deer Lodge 69.55% 3,122 23.37% 1,049 7.08% 318 4,489 Fallon 29.78% 422 59.28% 840 10.94% 155 1,407 Fergus 33.94% 2,063 58.12% 3,533 7.95% 483 6,709 Flathead 37.17% 16,223 55.38% 24,171 7.45% 3,252 43,646 Gallatin 51.63% 24,781 42.47% 20,386 5.9% 2,834 48,001 Garfield 14.31% 101 79.04% 558 6.66% 47 708 Glacier 69.6% 3,118 24.84% 1,113 5.56% 249 4,480 Golden Valley 36.25% 174 57.5% 275 6.25% 30 480 Granite 38.53% 657 52.49% 895 8.97% 153 1,705 Hill 58.93% 4,060 34.27% 2,361 6.81% 469 6,890 Jefferson 40.92% 2,685 51.65% 3,389 7.42% 487 6,561 Judith Basin 35.94% 441 57.13% 701 6.93% 85 1,227 Lake 49.25% 6,561 42.92% 5,717 7.83% 1,043 13,321 Lewis and Clark 54.34% 18,189 40.17% 13,446 5.49% 1,839 33,474 Liberty 40.48% 1,341 53.12% 1,760 6.09% 61 1,002 Lincoln 34.62% 3,091 56.90% 5,080 8.48% 757 8,928 Madison 33.2% 1,516 58.91% 2,690 7.88% 360 4,566 McCone 32.9% 332 61.05% 616 6.05% 61 1,009 Meagher 34.93% 342 55.57% 544 9.5% 93 979 Mineral 42.66% 866 47.44% 963 9.9% 201 2,030 Missoula 63.49% 36,488 31.64% 18,184 4.87% 2,799 57,471 Musselshell 28.58% 684 61.14% 1,463 10.28% 246 2,393 Park 48.22% 4,260 43.94% 3,882 7.84% 693 8,835 Petroleum 24.41% 73 67.56% 202 8.03% 24 299 Phillips 27.2% 607 65.64% 1,465 7.17% 160 2,232 Pondera 43.53% 1,187 49.69% 1,355 6.78% 185 2,727 Powder River 23.32% 239 70.15% 719 6.54% 67 1,025 Powell 41.75% 1,167 51.2% 1,431 7.05% 197 2,795 Prairie 33.33% 236 59.32% 420 7.34% 52 708 Ravalli 38.65% 8,602 53.87% 11,990 7.48% 1,666 22,258 Richland 30.18% 1,406 62.95% 2,933 6.87% 320 4,659 Roosevelt 61.41% 2,269 33.42% 1,235 5.17% 191 3,695 Rosebud 48.0% 1,704 44.45% 1,578 7.55% 268 3,550 Sanders 34.31% 2,044 54.04% 3,219 11.65% 694 5,957 Sheridan 42.23% 812 51.74% 995 6.03% 116 1,923 Silver Bow 69.29% 11,673 24.62% 4,148 6.09% 1,026 16,847 Stillwater 36.66% 1,732 56.84% 2,684 6.52% 308 4,724 Sweet Grass 31.19% 661 62.67% 1,328 6.13% 130 2,119 Teton 40.48% 1,341 53.12% 1,760 6.4% 212 3,313 Toole 34.01% 721 57.03% 1,209 8.96% 190 2,120 Treasure 33.98% 157 54.55% 252 11.47% 53 462 Valley 44.98% 1,749 46.91% 1,824 8.1% 315 3,888 Wheatland 36.79% 365 56.35% 559 6.85% 68 992 Wibaux 27.39% 149 62.32% 339 10.29% 56 544 Yellowstone 47.15% 32,565 46.44% 32,077 6.42% 4,432 69,074

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic Chouteau (largest municipality: Fort Benton) Gallatin (largest city: Bozeman) Yellowstone (largest municipality: Billings)

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican Mineral (largest city: Superior) Sheridan (largest city: Plentywood)

Source:

See also 2012 United States Senate elections 2012 United States House of Representatives election in Montana 2012 Montana gubernatorial election

References

External links