2012 United States Senate election in West Virginia

The 2012 United States Senate election in West Virginia was held on November 6, 2012, to elect one of West Virginia's two members of the U.S. Senate for a six-year term. In a rematch of the 2010 special election, incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Joe Manchin won re-election to a first full term against the Republican nominee, John Raese. Notably, Manchin outperformed Barack Obama in the concurrent presidential election by 25.06 percentage points in vote share, and by 50.86 percentage points on margin. Manchin also won all but 3 counties, including 10 that he lost in 2010.

Background Robert Byrd held this seat in the U.S. Senate from 1959 until his death on June 28, 2010, after serving in the U.S. House of Representatives since 1953, making him the longest-serving person in Congress. Byrd led his party in the Senate from 1977 to 1989, as Majority Leader or Minority Leader. Afterward, as the most senior Democrat in the Senate, he served as president pro tempore of the Senate whenever his party was in the majority, including at the time of his death.

After Byrd's death, West Virginia Secretary of State Natalie Tennant initially announced that a special election would not be held until the regular election for the six-year term in 2012. However, that special election was rescheduled to 2010 for it to coincide with the mid-term elections and to avoid having an interim appointee serving more than two years in the seat.

Governor Joe Manchin made a temporary appointment of Carte Goodwin to the vacant seat. Goodwin was later replaced by Manchin who won the 2010 special election.

Democratic primary Candidates Sheirl Fletcher, former Republican state delegate and Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2008 and 2010 Joe Manchin, incumbent U.S. senator

Results

Republican primary

John Raese, perennial candidate

General election

Candidates Bob Henry Baber (Mountain), former mayor of Richwood and candidate for governor in 2011 Joe Manchin (Democratic), incumbent U.S. senator John Raese (Republican), businessman and perennial candidate

Campaign Raese filed a rematch against Manchin, arguing that he now had more material to criticize Manchin with, including that Manchin lost his longtime endorsement from the organization West Virginians for Life because of his vote against defunding Planned Parenthood, the nation's largest abortion provider. Another example is how he is undecided about whether or not to support Obama's re-election campaign. Senior Obama campaign advisor David Axelrod commented in response, "His concern is about his own political well-being."Axelrod: Sen. Manchin Out for ‘Own Political Well-Being’ - ABC News In addition, he voted against U.S. Congressman Paul Ryan's Republican budget.GOP House budget bill U.S. Congress Votes Database - The Washington PostThe Washington Post

Raese wrote an op-ed in the Charleston Gazette-Mail, saying about Manchin, "Yes, he'll talk like a conservative and act like he's fiscally responsible to appeal to more moderate voters, but under that outward appearance of a lovable rube is the heart of a tax-and-spend liberal."

Raese continued to make controversial statements. In April 2012, he equated smoking bans with Adolf Hitler's yellow badge. He said "in Monongalia County now, I have to put a huge sticker on my buildings to say this is a smoke-free environment. This is brought to you by the government of Monongalia County. Okay? Remember Hitler used to put Star of David on everybody’s lapel, remember that? Same thing." That same day, he referred to President Franklin D. Roosevelt as "Fidel Roosevelt."John Raese Equates Smoking Ban To Hitler Policy Raese didn't apologize for his statements on Hitler saying "I am not going to be intimidated by a bunch of bullshit. I'm not apologizing to anybody or any organization. It's my perfect right to make a speech about meaningful subject matters in this country."John Raese: Hitler Controversy Over Comparing Smoking Regulations To Nazi Policy Is 'Bull****' He also called rocker Ted Nugent a "patriot" for criticizing President Barack Obama.John Raese Calls Ted Nugent A Patriot After Obama Threat (VIDEO)

Fundraising Candidate (party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt Joe Manchin (D) $9,467,003 $7,678,708 $1,788,297 $0 John Raese (R) $1,607,740 $1,610,493 $4,679 $0 Source: Federal Election Commission

Top contributors

Joe Manchin Contribution John Raese Contribution Lawyers/law firms $670,553 Entertainment industry $176,025 Mining industry $647,548 Leadership PACs $143,190 Electric utilities $392,100 Retired $109,513 Leadership PACs $366,000 Lawyers/law firms $62,069 Health professionals $287,498 Special trade contractors $59,450 Retired $275,750 Health professionals $54,300 Pharmaceuticals/health products $272,900 Financial institutions $52,695 Petroleum industry $256,150 Real estate $45,875 Real estate $228,350 Petroleum industry $35,900 Lobbyists $200,689 Republican/Conservative $35,357 Source: OpenSecrets

Top industries

Joe Manchin Contribution John Raese Contribution FirstEnergy Corporation $136,950 Greer Industries $124,754 Mylan Laboratories Inc. $127,500 Mountaineer Contractors Inc. $40,900 Mepco LLC $64,400 Senate Conservatives Fund $37,690 Dominion Resources $58,900 Frankovitch, Anetakis, Colantonio & Simon $25,650 Centene Corporation $55,900 Wv Radio $22,550 American Electric Power $55,750 West Virginia Radio Corporation $16,821 Jackson Kelly PLLC $50,825 Polino Contracting $15,500 Drummond Company $49,100 Cleveland Brothers $10,800 Patriot Coal Corporation $48,400 American Financial Group $10,200 Boich Companies $44,200 Senate Majority Fund $10,000 Source: OpenSecrets

Predictions Source Ranking As of The Cook Political Report November 1, 2012 Sabato's Crystal Ball November 5, 2012 Rothenberg Political Report November 2, 2012 Real Clear Politics November 5, 2012

Polling Poll source JoeManchin (D) JohnRaese (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling January 20–23, 2011 1,105 ±2.9% 60% 31% — 9%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling April 21–24, 2011 850 ±3.4% 61% 29% — 10%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling September 1–4, 2011 708 ±3.7% 62% 23% — 14%R.L. Repass April 25–28, 2012 410 ±4.8% 74% 22% — 4%R.L. Repass August 22–25, 2012 401 ±4.9% 66% 27% — 7%

Poll source JoeManchin (D) BillMaloney (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling September 30 – October 2, 2011 932 ±3.2% 60% 29% — 11%

Poll source JoeManchin (D) DavidMcKinley (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling January 9–10, 2011 1,058 ± 53% 41% — 3%Public Policy Polling April 21–24, 2011 850 ±3.4% 63% 25% — 12%Public Policy Polling September 1–4, 2011 708 ±3.7% 60% 24% — 16%

Poll source JoeManchin (D) ShelleyMoore Capito (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling January 20–23, 2011 1,105 ±2.9% 50% 41% — 10%Public Policy Polling April 21–24, 2011 850 ±3.4% 48% 40% — 12%Public Policy Polling September 1–4, 2011 708 ±3.7% 52% 36% — 13%Public Policy Polling September 30 – October 2, 2011 932 ±3.2% 49% 38% — 13%

Results

By county In spite of the Republicans winning every county in the presidential election, Manchin carried 52 of West Virginia's 55 counties.

CountyJoe ManchinDemocraticJohn RaeseRepublicanBob BaberMountainMarginTotal#%#%#%#%Barbour3,35858.8%2,19938.5%1512.6%1,15920.3%5,708Berkeley19,30653.3%16,04644.3%8542.4%3,2609.0%36,206Boone5,95569.9%2,31827.2%2412.8%3,63742.7%8,514Braxton3,16068.9%1,29728.3%1322.9%1,86340.6%4,589Brooke6,44171.0%2,47927.3%1541.7%3,96243.7%9,074Cabell22,00768.7%9,13328.5%8812.8%12,87440.2%32,021Calhoun1,36062.6%69532.0%1175.4%66530.6%2,172Clay1,89362.7%99332.9%1324.4%90029.8%3,018Doddridge1,14241.9%1,48954.6%953.5%-347-12.7%2,726Fayette8,76463.1%4,52432.6%6094.4%4,24030.5%13,897Gilmer14,0955.7%88134.8%2389.4%52820.9%2,528Grant1,47332.7%2,95565.6%791.8%-1,482-32.9%4,507Greenbrier7,95262.9%4,11232.5%5824.6%3,84030.4%12,646Hampshire3,95549.9%3,76147.5%2022.6%1942.4%7,918Hancock7,92067.5%3,62830.9%1861.6%4,29236.6%11,734Hardy2,76354.6%2,17042.9%1242.5%59311.7%5,057Harrison15,00957.3%10,45239.9%7432.8%4,55717.4%26,204Jackson7,03961.9%4,09236.0%2462.2%2,94725.9%11,377Jefferson12,33856.6%8,61939.5%8413.9%3,71917.1%21,798Kanawha46,25562.3%24,83733.5%3,1274.2%21,41828.8%74,219Lewis3,45554.3%2,67342.0%2323.6%78212.3%6,360Lincoln4,50466.8%2,05930.6%1752.6%2,44536.2%6,738Logan8,64274.6%2,76823.9%1691.5%5,87450.7%11,579Marion13,60663.8%7,10133.3%6072.8%6,50530.5%21,314Marshall8,27065.0%4,16732.8%2852.2%4,10332.2%12,722Mason6,77170.4%2,66927.8%1761.8%4,10242.6%9,616McDowell4,38572.3%1,55025.6%1292.1%2,83546.7%6,064Mercer12,24359.6%7,89838.4%4142.0%4,34521.2%20,555Mineral5,62351.4%5,14247.0%1831.7%4814.4%10,948Mingo6,33672.8%2,21625.5%1481.7%4,12047.3%8,700Monongalia15,89651.5%13,56343.9%1,4244.6%2,3337.6%30,883Monroe2,99758.7%1,95838.4%1492.9%1,03920.3%5,104Morgan3,41751.0%3,07145.8%2103.1%3465.2%6,698Nicholas5,44061.5%3,03634.3%3724.2%2,40427.2%8,848Ohio11,21063.7%5,97634.0%4152.4%5,23429.7%17,601Pendleton1,67051.4%1,50046.2%792.4%1705.2%3,249Pleasants1,77963.6%96134.4%562.0%81829.2%2,796Pocahontas2,09260.2%1,14132.8%2416.9%95127.4%3,474Preston4,15938.2%6,32558.2%3923.6%-2,166-20.0%10,876Putnam13,50957.6%9,37940.0%5832.5%4,13017.6%23,471Raleigh16,74859.4%10,79138.3%6382.3%5,95721.1%28,177Randolph5,97962.2%3,31034.4%3233.4%2,66927.8%9,612Ritchie1,96952.3%1,69645.1%982.6%2737.2%3,763Roane3,20564.2%1,59532.0%1893.8%1,61032.2%4,989Summers3,02865.3%1,45231.3%1583.4%1,57634.0%4,638Taylor3,35356.7%2,42240.9%1422.4%93115.8%5,917Tucker1,78056.2%1,30241.1%842.7%47815.1%3,166Tyler1,80356.0%1,34241.7%762.4%46114.3%3,221Upshur4,40353.9%3,53143.2%2362.9%87210.7%8,170Wayne9,58069.3%4,02329.1%2301.7%5,55740.2%13,833Webster1,74062.5%88831.9%1545.5%85230.6%2,782Wetzel3,86666.8%1,78430.8%1352.3%2,08238.0%5,785Wirt1,40165.3%68331.9%602.8%71833.4%2,144Wood20,89163.1%11,58335.0%6381.9%9,30828.1%33,112Wyoming4,64963.0%2,55234.6%1832.5%2,09728.4%7,384Totals399,90860.6%240,78736.5%19,5173.0%159,15224.1%660,212 Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic Berkeley (largest municipality: Martinsburg) Hampshire (largest municipality: Romney) Morgan (largest municipality: Berkeley Springs) Hardy (largest municipality: Moorefield) Mineral (largest municipality: Keyser) Ritchie (largest municipality: Harrisville) Pendleton (largest municipality: Franklin) Tyler (largest municipality: Paden City) Upshur (largest municipality: Buckhannon) Putnam (largest municipality: Hurricane)

By congressional district Manchin won all three congressional districts, including two held by Republicans.

District Manchin Raese Representative 58.31% 38.94%David McKinley 58.48% 38.2%Shelley Moore Capito 65.42% 31.82%Nick Rahall

See also 2012 United States Senate elections 2012 United States House of Representatives elections in West Virginia 2012 United States presidential election in West Virginia 2012 West Virginia gubernatorial election

References

External links Elections Division at the West Virginia secretary of state Campaign contributions at OpenSecrets.org Outside spending at Sunlight Foundation Candidate issue positions at On the Issues

Official campaign websites Joe Manchin for U.S. Senate