The 2010 North Rhine-Westphalia state election was held on 9 May 2010 to elect the 15th Landtag of North Rhine-Westphalia. The outgoing government was a coalition of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Free Democratic Party (FDP) led by Minister-President Jürgen Rüttgers.

The election was a defeat for the incumbent government, but failed to produce a clear outcome. The CDU suffered its worst-ever result, falling over ten percentage points to just 34.6%. The opposition Social Democratic Party (SPD) led by Hannelore Kraft also recorded a decline and finished just 0.1% behind the CDU; both parties tied on 67 seats. The Greens recorded their best result to date with 12%, while the FDP achieved a small swing to 6.7%. The newly-formed Left party won 5.6% and 11 seats. Neither the incumbent CDU–FDP government (80 seats) or prospective SDP–Green coalition (90 seats) achieved a majority in the Landtag, with The Left narrowly holding balance of power.

Complex talks took place between all five parties, with the CDU and SPD each aiming for a coalition with the Greens and FDP, or a grand coalition between the two of them. The SPD and Greens also held talks with The Left. All discussions ended without success by mid-June. On the 17th, the SPD and Greens announced they would attempt to form a minority government led by Hannelore Kraft. They ruled out a confidence arrangement with The Left, but nonetheless relied on the party's abstention for the government's investiture to succeed. Kraft was elected Minister-President on 14 July on the second ballot, which required only a simple majority, with 90 votes in favour, 80 against, and eleven abstentions.

Electoral system The Landtag is elected via mixed-member proportional representation. 128 members are elected in single-member constituencies via first-past-the-post voting. 53 members are then allocated using compensatory proportional representation. Voters have two votes: the "first vote" for candidates in single-member constituencies, and the "second vote" for party lists, which are used to fill the remaining seats in a way that achieves proportionality overall. The minimum size of the Landtag is 181 members, but if overhang seats are present, proportional leveling seats will be added to ensure proportionality. An electoral threshold of 5% of valid votes is applied to the Landtag; parties that fall below this threshold are ineligible to receive seats. This was the first state election in which voters had two votes.

Background

In the previous election held on 22 May 2005, the SPD suffered a landslide defeat and was ousted from government for the first time since 1966. They received only 37% of votes while the CDU emerged in a strong first place with almost 45%; the FDP and Greens each took 6%. The CDU and FDP subsequently formed a coalition government under Jürgen Rüttgers.

Parties

The table below lists parties represented in the 14th Landtag of North Rhine-Westphalia. Name Ideology Leadcandidate 2005 result Votes (%) Seats CDU Christian Democratic Union of Germany Christian democracy Jürgen Rüttgers 44.8% SPD Social Democratic Party of Germany Social democracy Hannelore Kraft 37.1% GRÜNE Alliance 90/The Greens Green politics Sylvia Löhrmann 6.2% FDP Free Democratic Party Classical liberalism Andreas Pinkwart 6.2%

A total of 25 parties ran state lists in the election. Due to the newly-introduced two vote system, parties were able to stand their lists on ballots statewide without running candidates in every constituency, as had been the case previously. 1,000 signatures were required for a party to run a state list. In addition to the parties running lists, some stood only constituency candidates. A number of independent candidates also ran.

Campaign

Education policy was an important topic in the election campaign. The government wanted to retain the existing three-tier school system, and pointed out that during their tenure attendance had improved and many new teaching positions had been created. The opposition criticised the state's poor performance in PISA studies, and campaigned for the establishment of schools which integrated more younger and older students to improve efficiency, as well as the abolition of tuition fees.

The CDU was embroiled in a financing scandal in the lead up to the campaign, with companies accused of paying bribes in exchange for meetings with Minister-President Rüttgers. A Bundestag investigation found no violation of party finance laws. Shortly before the election, another scandal surfaced in which the CDU was accused of covertly commissioning a voters' initiative from a non-partisan communications agency, with the fundraising money allegedly used to pay for pro-Rüttgers newspaper ads under non-party branding. The allegations were sourced from intercepted emails from the NRW CDU and published mostly anonymously online. The CDU lodged a complaint with the state prosecutor over data breaches, but attributed the accusations to a malicious defamation campaign.

Federal issues also impacted the campaign. A new federal coalition of the CDU and FDP had taken office about six months earlier. If the state government was defeated, the federal government would lose its majority in the Bundesrat, the upper house whose members mirror the composition of each state government. This could prevent the government from implementing some of its proposed projects, including a controversial possible extension to the lifespan of some nuclear power plants, which the SPD and Greens pointed out. The federal government also delayed releasing its tax and budget plans until after the state election, which was widely criticised as a political play to avoid backlash from anticipated spending cuts. Just a few weeks before the election, the government also agreed to help finance a €110 billion EU bailout of the Greek government-debt crisis.

The Left also campaigned heavily on federal issues, criticising the social policy of both the federal CDU and former SPD governments, ongoing German involvement in the War in Afghanistan, and the consequences of the 2008 financial crisis. Despite being mostly a federal responsibility, employment and labour policy were also an important issue in the election; the left-wing opposition parties called for the establishment of a minimum wage, which the CDU and FDP opposed. Both Rüttgers and Kraft distanced themselves from controversial federal social policy such as the Hartz IV programme.

Polls ahead of the election indicated that The Left was likely to enter the Landtag, while the two major parties were likely to suffer losses collectively. This continued the trend in recent years of dwindling support for the traditional parties and an increasingly fractured parliamentary landscape with difficult majorities. The FDP was the only party to commit to a single option to the exclusion of all others: a continuation of the incumbent government. The CDU also campaigned to continue the coalition, but left the option of cooperation with the Greens open. The SPD expressed a preference for a coalition with the Greens but otherwise refused to draw hard lines. The Greens favoured the SPD, but likewise did not rule out working with the CDU. Relations with The Left were a sticking point: the CDU and FDP viewed cooperation as impossible, while the Greens and SPD left their options more open. However, the Greens did rule out a confidence and supply arrangement, and the SPD regularly denounced them as incapable of governing. For their part, The Left stated their willingness to join a coalition with the SPD and Greens and support Hannelore Kraft as Minister-President.

Opinion polling Polling firm Fieldwork date Samplesize CDU SPD Grüne FDP Linke Others Lead 2010 state election 9 May 2010 – 34.6 34.5 12.1 6.7 5.6 6.5 0.1 YouGov 30 Apr–6 May 2010 1,007 35 35.5 10.5 7 7 5 0.5 Emnid 28 Apr–5 May 2010 1,000 37 33 12 8 5 5 4 Forsa 3–5 May 2010 1,005 37 37 10 6 5 5 Tie GMS 3–4 May 2010 1,001 37 33 12 7 6 5 4 Emnid 21–29 Apr 2010 1,033 38 33 11 8 6 4 5 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 27–29 Apr 2010 1,080 35 33.5 11 8.5 6 6 1.5 Infratest dimap 27–29 Apr 2010 1,000 37.5 33 10 7.5 5.5 4.5 4.5 Forsa 19–23 Apr 2010 1,004 39 33 10 7 6 5 6 Emnid 12–20 Apr 2010 1,038 38 34 11 8 6 3 4 OmniQuest 19–22 Apr 2010 1,000 37.5 36.8 12.8 5.1 4.8 2.9 0.7 Forsa 12–17 Apr 2010 1,009 38 34 9 8 6 5 4 Forsa 6–9 Apr 2010 1,003 39 34 11 6 5 5 5 Infratest dimap 7–10 Apr 2010 1,000 38 34 12 7 6 3 4 GMS 5–6 Apr 2010 1,002 39 32 12 7 6 4 7 Emnid 15–31 Mar 2010 1,047 38 32 12 8 7 3 6 Emnid 18–22 Mar 2010 996 38 32 11 8 7 4 6 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 15–17 Mar 2010 1,091 37 33 12 8 6 4 4 Emnid 5–11 Mar 2010 1,000 37 33 12 8 7 3 4 Infratest dimap 1–3 Mar 2010 1,000 35 33 13 10 6 3 2 Forsa 22–26 Feb 2010 1,016 38 34 11 6 6 5 4 GMS 18–20 Feb 2010 1,003 39 31 12 7 6 5 8 Forsa 20–29 Jan 2010 1,047 41 32 11 6 5 5 9 Infratest dimap 19–21 Jan 2010 1,000 36 32 12 9 6 5 4 Forsa 4–15 Jan 2010 1,121 42 31 11 6 5 5 11 Infratest dimap 17–19 Nov 2009 1,000 36 30 11 10 8 5 6 Forsa 2–13 Nov 2009 1,022 41 31 9 9 6 4 10 GMS 21–28 Jul 2009 1,002 39 29 9 12 5 6 10 Infratest dimap 10–11 Jun 2009 1,000 38 27 12 14 6 3 11 Forsa 13–30 Apr 2009 1,283 42 30 8 11 5 4 12 Infratest dimap 24–26 Feb 2009 1,000 40 28 10 12 7 3 12 Forsa 19–30 Jan 2009 1,078 42 26 9 13 6 4 16 Emnid 29 Jan 2009 ? 38 30 9 12 9 ? 8 Infratest dimap 8–9 Oct 2008 1,000 37 30 10 12 9 2 7 Forsa 24 Sep–2 Oct 2008 1,017 41 30 8 10 7 4 11 Forsa 31 Jul–12 Aug 2008 970 44 27 8 10 7 4 17 Forsa 21–30 Jul 2008 867 42 30 8 10 6 4 12 Forsa 26 May–6 Jun 2008 1,054 44 27 8 9 8 4 17 Forsa 5–16 May 2008 1,216 42 29 9 9 7 4 13 Forsa 17–28 Mar 2008 1,386 43 29 8 8 8 4 14 Infratest dimap 25–27 Mar 2008 1,000 41 31 10 9 6 3 10 Emnid 25–28 Feb 2008 1,000 41 32 8 8 8 ? 9 Forsa 28 Jan–5 Feb 2008 1,014 42 33 6 8 7 4 9 Emnid 2 Feb 2008 ? 39 35 8 9 6 3 4 Infratest dimap 6–8 Nov 2007 1,000 40 34 8 9 6 3 6 Emnid 2–8 Nov 2007 1,000 40 33 8 9 7 3 7 Forsa 22 Oct–5 Nov 2007 1,418 45 31 7 7 6 4 14 Forsa 30 Aug–11 Sep 2007 1,157 44 29 8 8 6 5 15 Emnid 31 Jul–4 Aug 2007 1,000 38 31 9 11 8 3 7 Infratest dimap 31 Jul–2 Aug 2007 1,000 38 35 9 9 6 3 3 Emnid 23–28 Apr 2007 1,000 39 32 11 12 – 6 7 Emnid 2–5 Mar 2007 1,000 38 33 12 11 – 6 5 Emnid 4–16 Jan 2007 1,000 39 33 11 12 3 2 6 Infratest dimap 9–11 Jan 2007 1,000 38 36 9 9 4 4 2 Forsa 17 Oct 2006 1,932 41 31 8 11 5 4 10 Emnid 11–12 Aug 2006 1,000 40 34 9 9 3 5 6 Infratest dimap 8–10 Aug 2006 1,000 39 35 9 10 4 3 4 Forsa 10–18 Jul 2006 1,055 43 32 7 10 5 3 11 GMS 12–14 May 2006 1,001 42 38 7 7 3 3 4 Infratest dimap 16–18 May 2006 1,000 43 34 6 10 4 3 9 Forsa 8–16 May 2006 1,001 41 33 8 9 5 4 8 Emnid 8–12 May 2006 1,002 40 35 7 8 4 6 5 Infratest dimap 13–15 Dec 2005 1,000 42 36 8 7 4 3 6 Infratest dimap 16–18 Aug 2005 1,000 45 34 7 6 5 3 11 2005 state election 22 May 2005 – 44.8 37.1 6.2 6.2 3.1 2.6 7.7

Results Due to the electoral reform that took place in this election, no swing is given for the constituency vote except for independents. Swing values for the party list vote are compared to the single vote from the 2005 election.

Aftermath Analysis Exit polling by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen indicated that state politics was primary for most voters. 55% said it was most important in their voting decision, while 41% said federal politics was more important, and only 15% said their vote was a protest against the federal government. An overwhelming majority of voters (78%) named education as an important issue, alongside the Greek debt crisis (56%). Only 38% considered CDU finance scandals important. According to Infratest dimap polling, economic development, education, and budget deficits were the most important issues. The SPD was considered more competent in the areas of education and social welfare, while the CDU led in economics and finance. Compared to the 2005 election, while the issue of employment lost salience, perception of the SPD's competence in the area recovered while the CDU's declined.